Another trade that didn’t work out, and even though there was an attempt to move below the M5 moving average, the bulls took over and drove price higher before going back on my favor. I could have locked in profit to mitigate my risk, but I wanted to give price a little bit more of room an decided to move my stop loss above the M15 moving average to add an extra layer of resistance. A -0.28R that hurts a little but nothing to worry about.
It looks like after an intense start of the session, price will be ranging at least until Wall Street opens at 2.30PM.
Not too much to say about this one. After reaching the low of the session, pirce moved up aggressively towards the M5 moving average. It went furhter than the 61.8 level marked on the chart with the Fibtool, but when I saw it crossing the M5 moving average back down, I thought I had the trade I was waiting for several minutes. It didn’t work, it was within the probabilities of being a loser trade, and it only remarks the importance of taking all edgy trades as stated below.
Today was a clear example of how important is to trust structure when you are trading following an edge.
Even though the DAX looked really bearish after the bank holiday, price moved up to test Yesterday’s Close level as soon as the London market opened. As my mind was in bearish mode, expecting the index to move donwards, it didn’t matter that I had marked and positioned the trading tool to buy a possible retracement, I just didn’t take it when I had the chance, fearing that price would cross both M1 and M5 moving averages, letting me out of my first trade of the day in a matter of seconds.
Exactly the opposite happened, with price taking just 3 minutes to move back up, reach what it would have been my 2R profit level and re-test Yes Close.
But that’s not the end of the lesson: after re-testing Yes Close, look at what happened:
Yes, DAX went down exactly as expected, formed a Double Top that I knew it was in play after it broke the previous GZ M1 FIBCON whose level is marked in red, retraced to the M1 moving average and kept its way down.
As I was without any profit, I am trying to avoid riskier trades like this double top (not part of the edge) unless I have some profit already, so look at the implications of having missed that first trade! I could have been +4R or more in less than half an hour of being trading!