Just come back to the computer after a lunch break to see that price ended up doing what I had predicted earlier with a short, sharp drop down to touch the 61 Fib level pip-perfectly before moving back up.
I’m not sure I would have tried, or even been able, to trade this had I been at the computer, as it came and went so quickly, and there was a strong bearish move to reach that level which would have probably put me off.
This was a bad, low probability trade with no good confluence of key structure, that I was drawn into after being annoyed at myself for passing on the 5min MAB. I passed on the 5min MAB expecting price to fall closer to the 10865 level and fulfill the larger FibCon set up.
However, with the 5min and 15min ema, the H1 EQZ and good ‘Look Left’ Role Reversal within the Daily Hi-Lo GZ, the 5min MAB was definitely the better trade to take. The Fib tool for this trade was drawn with point A at the 10865 level and point B at the Higher High.
Another example of the kind of trades that I need to cut out and prevent damaging my results; emotionally reactive, trying to be clever.
I made two mistakes here, and missed out on what could had ended up being a good +3R trade.
The above screenshot shows how I was positioned for the trade. I was looking for price to reach the top of the Golden Zone at the 61 Fib level, where there was a confluence of the 1min and 5min moving averages and a Role Reversal level created by point C of the previous trade.
The first mistake was being too fussy about my entry. Taking the trade at the 50 Fib level with the 10865 Key level as confluence would have seen at least a +2R profit.
The second mistake is shown in the screenshot below. Adjusting point A of the setup down from the H1 EQZ at 10878 to the beginning of the impulsive move give a Golden Zone with the 61 Fib level right at the point where my entry should have been!
I didn’t enter this trade, as price was coming down off the Hi-Lo GZ 61 Fib level and 4hour ema, and would have to punch through the H1 EQZ at 10878 to hit the 2R profit target.
However, a FibCon was in play here, with confluence from the M5 Bull Channel. The M5 Bear Channel, the 10865 Key level (which I defined on the Daily timeframe using price action from way back in 2015) and the 5min ema coming up from below would have given some support to place the Stop Loss behind.
If I had entered this trade, I’d have most likely taken profits at the 1R level just below the H1 EQZ at 10878, however as you can see, it would have eventually reached the +2R profit target.