bbqtrader

Wed 17th June

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End of Day Review

The day of great setups and a lot money left on the table!  

+2.15%

5 trades taken.

3 winners, 1 loser, 1 break even.

09:18

Failed M1 REVFIB | -0.99R 

Low probability setup? 

I didn’t have enough structure to support my trade. I guess it was more related to my desire to catch one. Will have to thoroughly review how and when they form in order to master these trades.

10:17

Wild entries | +0.40R  

Ok, none of the above were planned like that.. 

On both ocassions price was moving so fast that between the time my brain decided to press “Ctrl+E” to take the trades and the time they executed, the entry level on both was different to what I planned, particularly on the -0.11R trade.

Now, execution was poor, but the idea was there: 12374.03 bulit as support, and I started to see Lower Highs forming and had the trade tool ready to go. However, two minutes before my +0.51R trade, price moved up and seemed like going above the 12392.53 grid level, so I deleted my trade tool and looked away. In no time price moved down, broke the support and I arrived a bit late. Hesitating as to whether the trade was good or a price chaser I manually closed it. I will not lie here: 2 seconds after, price broke the key 12355.53 level marked again on the grid. I rushed the second trade, but when pressing Ctrl+E, price moved wildly down and gave me that horrible looking entry that I quickly closed.  

10:43

10:50

M1 Reversal FIBCON | +1.89R (5R 2 after 2 minutes)

M15 FIBCON | +0.85R (5R after 5 candles)

Great structure, great anticipation (if you see my previous screenshot on wild trades, you’ll see where my trade tool was placed, that’s almost exactly where I took the +1.89R winner), poor trade management.

Don’t get me wrong, I am proud of having been involved in those trades. Even a 10R wouldn’t have made me a millionaire at this point on my trading journey, but anticipating these set ups will definitely get me closer to it, therefore today is a great day!

AFRC

Tue 16th June

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End of Day Review

+2.17%

2 trades taken.

1 winner, 1 loser, 0 break even.

08:57

Failed SUPCON | -1.00R

I had marked a possible support area earlier on this morning, and when price approached it that fast, I jumped the gun and entered the trade.

I could have waited a bit more, but given that after my trade the next two candlesitcks were still there, I am sure I would have entered the trade anyway. 

Didn’t work, not particularly an edge trade, so I should really save these kind of attempts for the future once I start to read the market a bit better. 

11:20

M1 FIBCON Winner | +3.17R

Oh boy I was longing for a trade like this one.

Right when the feeling of relegation was starting to kick, it felt like a last minute goal that saved me from falling deeper.

It wasn’t free from emotions I must say. After I entered the trade, that candle and the next two stayed hoovering around my entry level. I was like “why does it need to hang around there? Just go up!” I’ve seen so many cases where price effortlessly retraces that those 2+ minutes of indecision were painful. I set my lock in levels (you will observe two small horizontal lines, one between 1 and 2R, another one above my 2R level) and I went away.

It was a recomforting to come back with price above my 2R level and about to touch my target price. 

There was role reversal (multiple times if you keep looking at the left on the 1 /5 or even 15 minute charts) and there it was the M1 Moving Average going up to help the reversal. That’s Blackbox’s edge. 

00:00

00:00

Mon 15th June

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End of Day Review

-2.22%

4 trades taken.

0 winners, 3 losers, 2 break even.

10:51

Failed H1 MAB | -0.35R

Price has beeen pretty much on a range after a sudden move up initiated around 9AM. 

I thought that the H1 would offer good resistance, but it wasn’t as effective as I anticipated. 

However, I was slightly above 1R at some point, but then price came back up to test previous highs. I locked profit initially on at the breakeven level, but then moved it to above PM High looking for some structure to aid me. It just didn’t work. 

13:06

Price chasers trade | Breakeven +0.02R

Rule #1 is that we don’t know where price is going to go. However, sometimes I feel like there is pressure to go in a particular direction.

I feel that price really wants to move down, but I was clearly wrong on those trades. I managed to exit at breakeven levels to avoid damage, but they could have been two losers.

Let’s hope the bell in US brings us more action.

14:36

Failed M1 and M5 MAB | -1.89R

Certainly not the best way to finish my day. 

USA opened, price started moving very fast, and I made two poor decisions. 

Wouldn’t take them again, it shows how fast you can lose money in the market. 

Fri 12th June

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End of Day Review

+1.51%

3 trades taken.

2 winners, 1 loser, 0 break even.

08:34

M1 Head and Shoulders | +2.00R

Nice little setup, once price broke down what was a resistance previously, I pulled the trigger for a quick 2R. 

08:55

Failed M1 Reversal FIBCON | -0.98R

I will catch you one day, I promise! 

Bulls in control for now, let’s see where they drive price up to.

I am looking to sell near the 12135 level should price keep climbing.

In the meantime, any opinions as to why this trade shouldn’t have been placed? I am still happy with the trade though, but I want to refine my criteria selecting reversals.

09:50

H1 FIBCON | +0.49R  – The power of structure!!

Don’t mind the R value, I had to leave after 3 hours and 57 minutes on the trade and therefore closed it out. I had to admit that when I closed it, I thought if I didn’t it was going to be a loser. 

Now, let’s focus on structure of the below screenshot. This is the kind of trades I should be taking every day. They seem to be the most reliable ones, regardless of how I then decide to manage it! 

Price seemed to be on a bullish session, but I was on sell mode given the Thursday action. The 12135 looked to attractive for a retracement, having role reversal and the Fibonacci levels as support. 

It was a long trade, but that is expected if you take it on the H1 chart as I did. Not every trade needs to be decided in 5 minutes, right? I am glad that I entered it, now it’s only a matter of managing it appropriately. 

Thu 11th June

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End of Day Review

-1.35%

2 trades taken.

0 winners, 2 losers, 0 break even.

08:48

M1Reversal FIBCON | -0.36R

This one just didn’t work out, I guess it enters into the probabilities side of it. 

Note how price literally touched the bottom of my trade entry, I still can’t explain how it didn’t take me out.

When I saw buyers driving price up and price holding above my entry level, I felt there was enough buying power in the market to keep going.

That was partially true, but it only manifested itself after another test to the bottom of that range unfortunately. 

After being I’d say -0.99R, I could have taken profits when the trade became a 1R winner, but I really thought price was showing enough strength to continue up. 

11:19

5 wicks pattern = BUY!

This is a structure I need to keep monitoring in order to trade it live. 2R were relatively easy to achieve even with a stop loss below the low of the day. 

Wed 10th June

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End of Day Review

-0.96%

5 trades taken.

1 winners, 3 losers, 1 break even.

08:30

1 Loser, 1 missed FIBCON + 1 Missed Reversal FIBCON | -1.00R

I am not gonna start from the beginning because that first loser doesn’t deserve further words. 

What a great structure was formed this morning! I could still be on that missed Reversal FIBCON should I have been focused, probably around 15R by the time I write this with price wellll below the Open level you see at the bottom of the chart. Yes, 15% in one day could have been possible with an experienced trading management. 

Price moved up after the London open at 8AM, made a new High and started the retracement. If we take into account yesterday’s correction, it was a bearish environment. Therefore, if prices retraces to the 61.8 Fibonacci level, a Reversal FIBCON could be in play. It would have been the trade of the month, but of course it needs one to be absolutely sharp on executing trades.

After retracing to the bottom zone marked in yellow, price went up, offered seconds of an entry point and started going down again. 

I arrived 5 mins late to the party, time and practice will give me the skill to execute it properly in the future.

09:18

1H MAB | -0.98R 

What can I say here? Price reached my stop loss and never came back to that level. Not even close to it. 

I must confess I moved my trade tool slightly down, probably not to be out of a potentially good trade. That obviously moved my stop loss lower when entering the trade. 

Fine margins as @daxtrader likes to say. 

10:11

M1 FIBCON | Breakeven trade -0.03R

You may think I put the wrong screenshot above. That one was with the trading ongoing, at that time +1.12R but it reached almost +1.80R

Being by mid morning 2R down, I set take profit levels and ran away from the monitor.

The title of this trade was a huge spoiler, but it will at least allow you to say “nooo” as I did when I saw what price did, touching my stop loss at the breakeven level and doing exactly what I had marked, that is, going for the full length of the pink lines, a.k.a., measured move. 

Were we talking about fine margins on my previous trade? Well, fine margins indeed. 

11:44

1M FIBCON Loser | -1.00R

This one hurt a bit. I know we are supposed to feel no emotions as traders, which tells that I’ve got still a lot to learn, but I thought a had a winner here. 

The 1 min Moving Average only delayed the way up, and when it kept moving upwards towards the 5 min Moving Average, I marked the Fib Levels and saw an opportunity to enter.

I think that the trade was either a sell the 12528.92 level or a buy at the very same level once price broke it and came back looking for support, with the 1 min Moving Average nearby. 

Low probability trade, desperate for a winner. 

13:50

High-Low FIBCON | +1.97R

I was -3R for the day, bleeding and almost knocked-out, but when I saw this gem, 30mins before it happened, I was unable to excuse myself from it.

As emotionally I wasn’t in the best place, I set a Sell Limit order, placed the box right below the Open Level and stayed out of the charts.

I did spy now and again, is not that I didn’t care, but I was excited to see it executed before the US market open hours. 

I guess there is nothing else to say rather than I could have gone for more, but that day will come when I am not -3R and I can risk more. At the time of writing, price kept going down, but the point here is to had taken a good text book trade that ended up in a nice 2R.

 

That marks the end of my roller coaster trading session, thanks for reading!

 

Tue 9th June

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End of Day Review

-0.44%

4 trades taken.

1 winners, 2 losers, 1 break even.

08:48

H4 MAB  Buy | Breakeven trade +0.02R 

First trade of a new chapter in my trading journey! 

After so many days of bullish price action, bears drove price down Yesterday’s Low and there it was the 4 Hourly Moving Average, which often in a sell off offers some resistance. I opened a trade on the 1H chart placing the stop loss below the key 12577.51 level.

Indeed it did offer some resistance, but I was so conservative on my stop loss, even having catched price reversing for a while, my trade was not even above 1R. Once price went above Yes Low once again, I moved my stop loss to breakeven should price not hold.  

09:16

Reversal FIBCON Buy | -0.97R

Second trade of the day, talked myself into a Reversal FIBCON that was not on the plans of the market. The sell-off was still ongoing, this was clearly a poor trade, and while the first trade offered an almost half and hour battle, this one lasted less than a minute. Patience needed! 

09:48

M1 MABCON Sell | +1.73R

After a bad second trade, I needed to at least have some understanding with the market! I had marked with the green elipse an area of strong support when price was still above it. Soon after that, bears kept taking price lower but the retracement offered an attractive M1 MAB with the previously marked area nearby now acting as resistance.

It worked to perfection, after watching price break several layers of resistance on the way down, greed took over and I moved my take profit level further down the original 2R. Looking at price hesitating just above my 2R level, I closed the trade and took profit. 

I should have never touched the take profit level, that was sitting just above an interesting channel mid-line that price tested and started a recovery. It was a 2R trade closed early.  

Touching my take profit level make deviate my attention from what I was looking on my previous trade, that is, a possible Reversal FIBCON, a pattern that normally offers multiple R. The chart below shows exactly what I missed! 

It turns out that my take profit level was the perfect entry point to profit from the whole structure of the Reversal FIBCON:

10:55

M15 Chart Reversal FIBCON | -1.22R

My successful previous trade, combined with the sense of having missed the next leg of the same movement, was probably the reason why I ended up opening the one below.

It lasted more than half an hour from start to finish, and it was around 1R at some point. That tells that structure was there to support this trade.

However, I entered it too soon, and I moved my stop loss to an area where I saw support.

The support was indeed there, but after touching my stop loss, of course. If that area was support, I should have either entered the trade already taking that into account, or not take the trade at all. 

Good learning stuff for my first day after more than 18 months without trading!

Thoughts of my trading journey – A must read!

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Ten months elapsed since my first live trade. My day trading experience at the time was close to zero (one month on a demo account), but I wanted to feel it all, experience it all, win it all, and it had to be quick.

It didn’t take long before all of my personal flaws were reflected in my trading decisions; I had to learn my first and most important lesson, one that took me months to face and show tangible improvement: for me, trading was more a mental state than a technique, a state of the mind where you execute your edge over and over aiming to end up with a profit in the long run.

Being used to succeed in my previous jobs, it wasn’t easy to see myself failing month after month. I had to lose 70% of my initial trade bank in order to take seriously that I wasn’t going to be successful unless I let go thoughts, fears and vices acquired during my 30 years of existence, a program very well coded in my brain that was time to change.

The good news was that I wasn’t alone, being part of the Blackbox community helped me big time on feeling that I wasn’t the only one undergoing such transformation and that the process wasn’t easy, otherwise it would be full of good traders, something that is quite scarce when you ask for consistent profit.

It was only by August that I started to feel that profit was possible, that I was going to be able to get what I visualized over and over again if I was disciplined and patient enough. However, both August and September were, in terms of results, negative months, but at the same time the end number was influenced by two or three days in those months where I wasn’t mature enough to acknowledge that not trading is sometimes better than trading, simply because my mind was somewhere else (problems in general, big decisions, job offers, etc.), days that I ended -7%, -10% or more just after a couple of trades! And then the days were after 50 trades I ended +1%, stressed and probably with less hair than at the beginning of the session.

If I have to share what worked for me in order to achieve profit, here it is:

  • Consistent profit is built over time, day after day.
  • Take profit! Trust structure, lock-in profit after price breaks certain key levels and be happy with your original take profit target. 2R is a great result! It means 100% return on your investment!
  • Avoid moving your stop loss. Trust me, I tried to find a way to move it and get away with murder. 9 times out of 10 it led me to big loses.
  • If you have an edge, or if you will trade with Blackbox’s edge, place the trade, set where to lock-in profit if you want to do so and leave the trade alone. I’ve seen the sky fall only to manually close the trade (taking a hit) and see how price went non-stop to my profit target. I forgot to mention, I’ve seen it many times, a painful amount of times.
  • Be there in the moment. Answering emails or browsing while looking for setups will not lead you to profit. Connect with the charts, watch price action and learn how it behaves.

Life now has put in front of me a series of challenges that made me decide to put my trading journey on hold. It is definitely not a good-bye, it’s more a see you soon. I don’t know how soon, but I know that as long as we are allowed to trade in the future, I will want to do it. Profit is possible, and it doesn’t depend on the market. It depends on you.

Have a great time trading, and I hope you are able to inspire others!

See you soon.

 

bbqtrader – Alex

12/12/2018