bbqtrader
Wed 31st October
Even though price was coming off the Daily Channel acting as support, I wanted to give this setup a try. The M1 Moving Average was pip perfect confluent with the 61.8 level of my FibTool, and there was the M15 moving average and the 11423.7 level offering good retracement options.
I suffered the whole trade. It didn’t happen as expected. However, thanks to Mr. Phi’s (Blackbox) great idea of incorporating the Lock-In profit tool (my favourite to manage trades), I managed to get out of the trade at breakeven once price couldn’t stay below the Daily Bull Channel boundary.
As I said in my previous trade, I had marked both this and the other one. The normal behaviour should have been to wait patiently for this setup but now, conditioned by my previous loser, I entered a good setup in a bad place so I couldn’t make the most of it.
A perfect entry was that of themabtrader shared by him here, well done to him!
In my case, as I wasn’t happy with my entry level, once price tested the 11452.85 level I locked profit at 1R to make sure I recover my previous loss, skewing the trader’s equation 🙁
The trade would still be ongoing and reaching +1.9R as I type.
Anyway, I’d take this trade again, probably at a better level.
I marked both this and the GZ M15 MAB I ended up taking. When I saw price touching the 11452.8 level and going slightly up, I entered a low value trade, fueled by pure FOMO.
I wouldn’t take it again.
Early trade after the London open. I liked the possibility of a rebound in an area that acted as resistance before the 7am open, supported by the M15 moving average.
However, the area didn’t hold so I looked for an exit at breakeven. Minutes after that price went towards the Open level, area where it seems to have found support to go back up.
Tue 30th October
After gauging the market reaction to the M15 moving average I realised that it wasn’t the ultimate target, as the real one was the 11325.1 level, a great place to buy if you look at the Hourly Charts as it was a role reversal area for the last few days.
I closed both trades early enough to minimise loses, but I want to focus on the opportunities that I identified beforehand and didn’t executed. I’ve been too fussy wanting price to “touch” certain levels before trading, and that is not what always happens!
Both yesterday an today I missed good areas of resistance/support looking for the perfect trade, with perfect entry levels, which doesn’t make sense. I need to work on that!
Mon 29th October
The trade tool remains in the same place as it was before price started to going up. I was close to take it but I am still convincing myself as to whether this trades are worth or not. The thing is, I’ ve seen it sooo many times that it is hard to ignore.
When price is ranging within a defined top and bottom usually close to each other, it is normal to see how price breakes support, finds a lower low and gets back to the ranging area. When that happens, price usually is preparing to move higher. A great entry level is the bottom of the range, and it very rearly fails!
I’ll keep marking those because I am sure we have a good edge here!
I liked this setup as after a strong move upwards it came a equally fast retracement. The H4 moving average was in between the M1 and M5 moving averages so I waited to see if the 61.8 level of my Fibtool held and went for it.
However, price soon broke that level, almost stopped me out and started going up and down quite fast. Those are signs of short term volatility, and I prefer to be out of it as it usually does not respect supports. As soon as I could I exited the trade at breakeven, a good decision!
Great way to start the week!
When I saw price going down quickly without having hit any strong resistance, I started looking for the best MAB available. The M15 moving average was above the open so I went for it!
Quick bounce, fast profit, maximised locking in profit along the way.
Fri 26th October
Yes!!! What a beautiful High-Low Daily FIBCON!
The only reason why it wasn’t a 2R trade was because it touched my 2R and didn’t close the trade and, as I saw that movie before (the one where after touching your 2R a retracement is in place that leaves you almost empty handed), I was more than happy to close it manually (after a couple of loud bad words against the forces of the market, of course!).
Thu 25th October
After trades like the last one, where you basically turn a winner into a loser, it normally comes another 1R lost (or more) via frustration and anger. This time it was a winner, but I am not proud of this one.
A week ago I told Mr. Phi something like “why moving the stop loss to loose -0.75R? Give price room and let it take the full 1R!”
Well, I either have (Finding Nemo’s) Dori’s short term memory problems while I trade or I did something really silly. I moved my stop loss to reduce risk (from 1R to 0.65R, what a risk reduction!) and the market did a high five with my stop loss and went down to my 2R target profit.
I think I will remember this one for a while.
Could have anticipated that price would keep going up given the strenght of the rally.
However, bulls and bears battled for more than 20mins in that area so it wasn’t a level to ignore. I had my chance to close the trade at breakeven but wanted to let it develop given that my stop loss managed to hold price for more than 8 minutes.
Wed 24th October
I really liked the High-Low Golden Zone with the 1 Hour moving average around. It didn’t hold price.
30 minutes later, price started to sell off and went all the way down. Unlucky.
Hang on, don’t you see a great winner there? Me too.
I entered and exited the trade for the same reason, that was the only problem. I entered the trade for FOMO (don’t want to miss a successfull MAB!) even though I wasn’t 100% convinced of the setup, but entering with fear made me look at how price was trying to push up again and again! As soon as I had a chance to exit, I closed the trade, only to see seconds after how price did what it had to do.
Price action does amazing things!
Yesterday afternoon after Wall Street opened I was looking for buy opportunities around the 11251 level as I believed a rebound was in place. I didn’t find any that gave me some good risk reard so I decided to close the charts and stop trading.
This morning I found that not only was a rebound in place, it formed a great double bottom that could have offered 2R very fast!
On the other hand, today’s price action shows a double top that I don’t know where is it going to find support, but the SUPCON level at 11251.0 and the top border of the hourly equidistant zone at 11261.5 look really attractive. It will be difficult though to find a good place to buy given the weakness shown lately, where sell trades seem to be the safest bet.
Let’s see what the market has to offer!
Tue 23rd October
I love this saying and it applies perfectly to what happened: “Once bitten, twice shy”.
I had 2R on my first trade, wanted it more = tiny loser that felt like a 2R loser.
I traded again, once price seemed to change its trend for the short term = +1.11R (as I type, price reached what it was my 3R level).
This is not the first time I type this, but I will wok for it to be the last one: Take 2R if the market generously gave it to you. Just take it and wait for another entry. Take it!
After leaving 2R on the table, I had to make sure I walk away with some profit for the day, otherwise the phsycological implications of losing again would be huge.
Correction: a minute after I typed that price was on my 3 level, no it is on what it was 4R. Now passed it. Ok, bye.
PS: Take profit.
Am I being too greedy?
It has potential to be a partial bottom, but it failed to go towards the Hourly Bull Channel.
I set to lock in profit in a level that didn’t reach for some pips and now is threatening to hit my stop loss placed at breakeven level.
Look at where I had my trade tool! I wanted price to go just a tiny bit higher to cover the spread otherwise it changes too much my 2R target level.
Is a FIBCON still in play or will market keep going up towards the PW Low level?
Mon 22nd October
Bad trade or no luck?
Bought a little bit higher than wanted as price was moving fast. That made me have my profit targets higher than expected. Why is that relevant? I normally move my stop loss to breakeven after price reaches 1R of profit, but in this case it missed that level for a little bit and I decided not to lock profit in.
Price went down quickly, took me off the trade, went back up, almost made my 2R level and retraced once again.
Fri 19th October
Remember my second trade that didn’t work? This should have been the setup for that trade. Price went down, found a bottom that acted as support, and without news or anything going on started to climb up its way towards the 11545.9 level.
Despite the +2.93R profit that leaves me on breakeven for the day, I am not particularly proud with my trading today. It could have been much worse and does not show the way to go!
Have a good weekend.
I was already hit by my lack of patiente, but this M5 MAB looked really good. Had it marked in advance, and I think myself, themabtrader and urely others fell as well. Nothing to say more than I should have considered that price was coming after the 11545.9 level.
However, that doesn’t justify the second trade. I was upset by things not working out and took a desperated trade just hoping that the very aggressive movement up would find resistance there once again.
When market goes sideways I need to learn to either be more patient than ever OR to trade accordingly!
Price was clearly trying to break the 11545.9 level, but after having re-tested the low of the day couldn’t do so. It tried once, twice, three times and went up for a fourth time. Me, instead of waiting for confirmation (literally, break that level and go higher up), bought when it was a screaming sell. Why a sell? If price attempts to break a level several times without success, more often than not it will go further in the opposite direction looking for a support level that gives price enough strength to get rid of such resistance.
I fell in the trap even being aware of the risk. That didn’t make me feel any happier after being stopped out, and instead of learning and put a sell trade at the 5M moving average, I observed how price went down to make a new low for the session. Frustrated, entered a veeery low value trade that fortunately closed manually as soon as I realised where the trade came from.
After price reached a new lower low in the context of the chart, I saw a nice opporunity for a Role Reversal around the 11580 area, marked also with the FibTool at the 61.8 level of retracement.
As soon as I etered the trade, price broke the level I was expecing to act as support and went towards the 1 minute moving average. As this was not the intended trade and my entry level and stop loss were not appropiate for a possible MAB, I decided to exit the trade. It was either that or move the stop loss, something that I am trying not to do! Unfortunately, I missed a great downtrend!