bbqtrader

Thu 18th October

by

10:49

Double bottom +1.41R

I missed the M15 and H1 MAB that I had marked hours ago for fears of a Low-High FIBCON wih the Daily moving average as support.

However, I managed to identify this Double Bottom structure that gave me some valuable profit! Ideally I could have pur a tighter stop loss, but I wanted to give some room in case of a retracement. Anyway, happy with this trade, let’s see if the market offers anything else for today. 

09:00

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON -0.24R

No two days are the same! Yesterday it took ages for price to move up, and today in 30mins I missed a multiple R bull move starting at the same level I bought yesterday without any luck.

That’s probably the reason why I took this trade. FOMO kicked in and invited me over to a party that was finishing. I liked the idea of a Role Reversal at the 11772 level.0 but as soon as price broke both that and the 61.8 level marked with the Fibtool, I looked for an exit point. It was a -0.24R that was going to be worse if left alone. 

I wouldn’t take this trade again.

Wed 17th October

by

14:25

M1 Buy MAB -0.50R

Right after my last trade closed, I wanted to squeeze as much profit as possible from the bull move. What I didn’t know is that the bull move was over for a while! Gave back half an R from my profit but it was a conscious decision.

As you can see, I actually locked in profit but then thought of adding an extra layer of support by leaving my stop loss below the 11741.2 level. It didn’t work but it reduced my risk to half the original size.

That was my last trade of a long and stressful day!

14:05

M5 MAB +1.95R

The market was in bullish mode and I was resurrected by my last winner, so after seeing how the M5 MAB was in play, I entered teh trade a bit late but with some form of confirmation that price was going after the 11741.2 level that proved to be strong to break during the session.

I had moved my take profit level to the Bull channel, but also locked in profit once the trade went more than 2R on my favor, a wise deicision if you look at what happend the minute after my trade was closed.

10:30

Buy @ RESCON trades  +3.65R  -1.15R 

Messy chart, quite a lot of drama but good result at the end. It is much less complicated than it looks. None of the trades happened at the same time; I was always stopped at breakeven before entering the next trade. Let me explain this M15 chart:

– 1st trade(+0.02R) : Bought at RESCON after I saw that it held price above 11708, placing my stop loss below the 11693.8 level. I was almost stopped out but it turned out positive and reached 1R aprox at the highest point. At that moment I placed my stop loss at a breakeven level. 

-2nd trade (-0.11R) & 3rd trade (+0.04R): I thought price wasn’t going to come back down, but it is normal to see retracements before going further up. What I did in this and the next trade was improve my entry level by buying at a lower level with the same or similar stop loss, as I was confident that the market would move up. Well, I was close to get 2R but you know what? Price tested once again the 11693.8 level. By then, 3 hours went by since my first trade and I was out of all of them, angry, tired and 2R down because of the early morning trades.

-4th trade: I didn’t feel it personal at that moment, but looking at the chart now it seems like price action was joking with me. After re testing the RESCON area, it came back up in a bullish move that I wanted to be part of: as soon as price broke upwards the 11708 level I entered a trade that was risky but it went well.

There is one trade missing in this chart, it was a sell trade in the middle of the drama that ended up being a quick loser for -1.15R even though I didn’t move my stop loss. 

Conclusion: too much suffering for that reward. I could have taken 1R three times and be happy, but it is hard to know when to close trades that looked good! 

08:16

FIBCON + RESCON losers = -2R

And that is how my Wednesday started… Two losers thinking only about price going up, not expecting that bears would take over the market for a good part of the day. 

The first trade, a FIBCON with the M1 and M5 moving averages below the entry level that didn’t work out. I don’t think it was a bad trade as price didn’t show any signs of bearishness since the start of the session. In my opinion, it could have worked our perfectly.

However, the second trade was a bad trade. Even though the Daily bear channel boundary held price since Yes Close till then, it wasn’t enough to see a buy trade there. It lasted one minute and took me out for -1.05R. 

 

Tue 16th October

by

14:06

Buy @ SUPCON Breakeven

What can I say? Greedy maybe? 

As I shared on my previous trade, I turned bullish after observing the market for a while.

When I saw price going below the M1 Moving Average, I thought that if it retraces quickly it might be a good buying opportunity, and it was! Price reached 1.9R, doubted for a bit (should have taken profit there) and then, as you can see to the left of where I put “GAP!”, the next candle opened below the previous’ closing price, which normally indicates that there is some bearish movement going on. 

I thought I was covered by the M1 moving average but it didn’t last long as a support level, and I am glad I moved my stop loss to breakeven, otherwise it would have stopped me out to then go back up, this time above my 2R target level. 

Take profits man!

13:14

Sell @ RESCON Breakeven

I sat on my desk and saw price breaking up the 11700 level. I couldn’t resist and sold quickly! 

However, I noticed that it was the first time since the market attempted to go above such level that the M1 moving average was on top of the 11693.8 level, price was already above the 4H moving average and the M5 moving average was close enough to offer support levels on the way up. 

Therefore, as soon as price gave some room, I adjusted my stop loss as to me, the picture this time was bullish. It soon took me off for a breakeven trade. 

Mon 15th October

by

08:01

GZ M15 Sell FIBCON +0.88R

I really liked this setup right at the London open. Unfortunately the bear move reached only 1.6R of my 2R target.

After crossing down both M1 and M5 moving averages I locked in profit above them to give price some room with levels of possible support. However, the usual strength of the movements around the London open took price up again giving me 0.88R. 

Wed 10th October

by

10:54

Buy at SUPCON  +1.67R

After many setups where I was close to enter but waited probably too much for the exact entry level, I marked this one well in advance, waited patiently (doubted a little bit as well) and went for it.

Note the magenta coloured lines availables on the Expert Advisor as Measured Move. The idea is to somehow estimate the lenght of a trend by taking the distance from A to B in any successful setup (fibcons & mabcons that worked out) and apply it from point C to the next stop, marked as “D?” as we don’t know exactly what the market will do. 

So I waited for the trend to reach point D, coincidentally a very important level as the Daily Bull channel might be a place whe price looks for support before retaking its bull trend, and decided to buy. I was close to be taken out as the movement down was aggressive, but fortunately my stop loss was low enough to give room to such movement. 

I could have left the trade reach its original 2R level but the 5min Moving Average was being quite strong as a ceiling over the last 90 minutes, so after allowing price to test it twice I opted for securing profit. 

As I write this, price managed to brake that level and went  for the 15min Moving Average! That’s the life of a trader! 

Fri 5th October

by

09:41

Buy at RESCON +1.72R

Although I was very happy with my entry level, I suffered too much for those +1.72R.

The DAX went all the way down to the 12135.7 level as anticipated by Mr. Phi here: https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/fri-5th-oct/

I bought expecting a fast retracement but to be honest, after analysing how it got there, the downtrend wasn’t as aggressive as it could be, therefore the retracement I should have expected to be slower than usual. As the chart shows, price went towards my 2R profit target, it got really close but not enough to close my trade, and I ended up being caught up in a 1hr 21mins trade that hoovered near my entry level for almost 45 minutes. Too much suffering! I could have ended the trade manually near the top but somehow my greed was asking for more.. When price went back up, I wanted no more even though the worst of it had already happened…  

Anyway, +1.99R overall, really good way to finish the week.

08:33

Sell at RESCON

I started the day taking some risk. I felt that breaking the 12217.4 level was going to extend the downtred seen after the London open so I sold in two separate opportunities being aware of the risk involved by selling at a lower low or near it. That’s the reason why I locked in profit as soon as I had the chance and that is the reason why I ended up missing the downtrend that somehow felt it was coming!

I guess I should have accepted the possibility of loosing 1R and let the trade take its time! 

Thu 4th October

by

10:31

GZ Sell FIBCON -0.28R

Another trade that didn’t work out, and even though there was an attempt to move below the M5 moving average, the bulls took over and drove price higher before going back on my favor. I could have locked in profit to mitigate my risk, but I wanted to give price a little bit more of room an decided to move my stop loss above the M15 moving average to add an extra layer of resistance. A -0.28R that hurts a little but nothing to worry about.  

It looks like after an intense start of the session, price will be ranging at least until Wall Street opens at 2.30PM.

08:50

M5 Sell FIBCON -0.88R

Not too much to say about this one. After reaching the low of the session, pirce moved up aggressively towards the M5 moving average. It went furhter than the 61.8 level marked on the chart with the Fibtool, but when I saw it crossing the M5 moving average back down, I thought I had the trade I was waiting for several minutes. It didn’t work, it was within the probabilities of being a loser trade, and it only remarks the importance of taking all edgy trades as stated below.

08:05

Missed GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Today was a clear example of how important is to trust structure when you are trading following an edge.

Even though the DAX looked really bearish after the bank holiday, price moved up to test Yesterday’s Close level as soon as the London market opened. As my mind was in bearish mode, expecting the index to move donwards, it didn’t matter that I had marked and positioned the trading tool to buy a possible retracement, I just didn’t take it when I had the chance, fearing that price would cross both M1 and M5 moving averages, letting me out of my first trade of the day in a matter of seconds. 

Exactly the opposite happened, with price taking just 3 minutes to move back up, reach what it would have been my 2R profit level and re-test Yes Close.

But that’s not the end of the lesson: after re-testing Yes Close, look at what happened:  

Yes, DAX went down exactly as expected, formed a Double Top that I knew it was in play after it broke the previous GZ M1 FIBCON whose level is marked in red, retraced to the M1 moving average and kept its way down. 

As I was without any profit, I am trying to avoid riskier trades like this double top (not part of the edge) unless I have some profit already, so look at the implications of having missed that first trade! I could have been +4R or more in less than half an hour of being trading!  

Tue 2nd October

by

09:58

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON +2.01R

Blackbox edge in play! These should be the trades to take. Probabilities on your favor, less inherent risk and a sweet +2R locking in profit as soon as price broke certain key levels. I was expecting price to test the Daily Bear Channel so I put my take profit there (+4R), but even as I write this (40 mins after the trade closed), the market is playing around the 12218.6 level. Note that on the last 3 hours no hourly candle was able to close below that level! Are we looking at a bottom? See the H1 chart below:  

08:15

RESCON Sell +2.62R / -0.86R

After such an aggresive start of the session, I looked for possible levels where price might reach a temporary (or permanent for the day) ceiling, and watching closely what the market was doing I risked trading the 2 shown RESCON trades. 

Not too much to say about the first one, it is risky and unpredictable but often comes with multiple Rs if you choose the right entry level. Price moved incredibly fast up and I saw a possible stop at the 5M Moving Average that didn’t hold up and lasted seconds only.

When price reached the Hourly Bull Channel, I saw a last chance to find a retracement level. I entered the trade with a considerably high stop loss and waited for it to go down. It could have been a 4 or 5R trade but considering the nature of the trade I am more than happy getting away with +2.62R.

08:12

GZ M1 Sell MABCON -0.15R

What a roller coaster today’s session is!

After an aggressive bearish move initiated minutes before the London open, price retracted to the M1 Moving Average for what I thought was going to be a great start of the day. Well, it didn’t last long. When price reached my 1R level I decided to move my stop loss to breakeven level in order to reduce my risk and seconds after that I was taken off the trade for a -0.15R. 

 

Thu 13th Sept

by

10:25

Multiple Trades – No profit

Affected by what happened on my first trade (see below), and conscious of the profit I left on the table for taking my 2R quickly despite what it was a huge rally, I was observing how price wanted to retrace and therefore took some sell trades. When it comes to risky trades like those ones, as soon as I am in profit (+0.5R or more) I move my stop loss to breakeven to make sure that I am not risking anything. 

The firs two trades (left side of the chart) were bad trades, taken at levels that didn’t reflect what was going on and therefore I closed them as soon as I could.

The third trade, risky as it was (it involved moving the stop loss above the bullish channel – not recommended), offered me +2.5R that I didn’t take, having in mind that earlier on the day I had closed a trade too fast, it then went right to my stop loss (at the breakeven level to avoid losses), took me out and resumed the downtrend reaching aprox 3.5R of profit in just 5 minutes..

Honestly, that last movement I didn’t even see it, as I turned off my laptop as soon as it let me out of the trade for -0.02R!

To be fair, and this is the lesson of the day, if you are not taking your 2R at least risk a little bit and place your stop loss above the mid channel and the 1 and 5 minute moving averages that were crossing at that moment, ensuring that there was some resistance between your stop loss and the current price.

08:08

M5 MAB +2.07R

Great way to start the day! 

Right after the London open, I was waiting for price to touch the M5 moving average before continuing the uptrend shown since the beginning of the session. As soons as it approached that level, I entered into a trade that went more than half the way towards my stop loss but quickly turned into a great trade.

I was expecting the day to be bullish, but I also expected a retracement once it crossed my 2R, and as the trendline that I added beforehand shows exactly how price respected it for a couple of minutes, I decided to sell in order to buy again if it was going to get closer to my original entry level. Guess what? It never did.. The last candle you see on the screen turned bullish in those 47 seconds left, and after that it was all upside, so much so that I could have done 10R on that trade without significative retracements!