daxtrader

Thu 19th Mar

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

07:41

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Winner (8.5 pip spread), +2.00R

First blog for a while, we’ve been busy on other projects plus the BTC s/w has been updated so I’ve been trading on demo.

The last few weeks have been pretty wild due to the Coronavirus effect, huge volatility and sell offs.

This morning the spread went from 5 pips overnight ot 8.5 pips at 7am, never seen this before. However, I’d spotted a setup just after 7am, marked it up and took the trade. 

The only reason I took the trade was because I was on a demo account otherwise I’d have passed. However, it worked out as shown. I was over-generous with my stop and should have had my 2R target at or below point B.

Price had to move 157.65 pips to reach my target and it did – before 8am, these truly are unprecedented times just now.

I have been trading on demo at times during this period and what stands out is how the A-B-C pattern we trade scales accordingly and is therefore in play as normal. The obvious difference is the pips moved compared to normal but the structure of the setup remains the same.

This is Pure Price Action in play…..

 

 

Mon 2nd Mar

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:01

GZ M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.00R

This M5 MAB had a stop of 35 pips and target of 70, that’s due to the current price movement. I liked everything about it, it worked out 🙂

Wed 19th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

08:39

M1 Reversal Buy FIBCON

Yet another winning Reversal FIBCON passed on 🙁

This has become a major issue for me and I need to work on this. I’d failed to use the M15 and M30 charts to look for support as I was only looking at the M5. 

It ticked all the boxes and with a stop below the bottom of the IKZ this was a great trade.

Tue 18th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:24

Developing Pattern Recognition Circuitry

Above is the famous FEDEX logo that a hidden arrow designed in to it. There is also a bakers serving spoon hidden in the letter e.

Most people will not spot these unless they are pointed out, then it’s all you see due to the brains pattern recognition circuitry being updated. This is similar to when you decide on a new car, make and colour then seem to see them everywhere.

They were always there it’s just that now the brain notices them whereas before information it’s not interested in or trained to see is filtered.

I’m feeling that process happening with regards to the “5 Wick Zones”, after watching the video on them I’m now seeing them everywhere.

This is fascinating stuff and has great potential to enhance our trading decisions. I’ve seen times where multiple wicks stand out but had no clear strategy on how best to use them in my trading decisions.

Since watching the video (see yesterdays blog) I’m now going to mark them up to hard-wire the pattern recogintion skill. What I really like about them is that they are a Pure Price Action Pattern which is how we trade. This is not trading Candlesticks!

10:54

Two Buy Setups

When price broke back above the H1 EQZ@13686 two buy setups formed that I missed, they were both good buy trades and ticked all the boxes.

10:26

5 Wick Zones Everywhere!

At the end of yesterday’s blog I mentioned a Price Action Pattern that I came across over the weekend, the “5 Wick Zone”.

They are not yet hard-wired into my pattern recognition but they MUST be as they provide a very good guide as to where strong support or resistance is. This can then be factored into trading decisions.

From now on I’ll be marking up the 5WZs in real-time to develop the neural circuitry and see how they can support trading decisions.

Note the 5WZ that formed at 13657 that then led to a Super-Micro Reversal FIBCON (see above) followed by another Reversal FIBCON at the HKZ@13663

09:12

GZ M1 Micro Sell into 5 Wick Zone, -1.00R

I took the Micro M1+M5 MAB sell@13686 only to notice that I’d sold into a 5 Wick Zone!!

This new pattern is not yet hard-wired into my thinking and reasoning and had it been I’d have passed on this one, especially as it was micro structure.

09:07

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON BE, +0.04R

Took this buy trade too early as the H1 EQZ@13686 looked like it was going to hold price. It then moved dwon to test the 61.8 level before a decent bounce that would have resulted in over 1.5R with good timing.

Price turned around at the Inner FIBCON’s GZ, not shown.

Another example of best wait for the best value, these are tough to call.

Mon 17th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:20

5 Wick Strategy

Over the weekend I came across this video on “The Trading Channel” and found it very interesting as I want to go deeper into Pure Price Action setups.

Steven Hart is a very accomplished trader and I really like what he’s doing. He uses our language such as Pure Price Action and I’m looking for the kind of teaching he’s very gifted at.

This morning right after 8am price formed a text book “5 Wick” buy setup and having just re-watched the video on it it’s perfect!

The blue line at 13766 is a level based on the close of the bear candles that form the setup, see the video for full details.

For a while now I’ve been wanting to get more out of the Price Action Grid but only using price action setups. This one is new to me and I plan to add this to my trading plan.

For a while now I’ve been drawn to candles that group together with their wicks standing out but not developed a price action strategy to take advantage of them, this video does that.

Below is link to this video, this is one worth adding to our arsenal….

 

Below is another 5 Wick buy setup that formed today but this time on the hourly chart. A great example of the fractal nature of price action, the one above is on the 1 minute chart, this one is one the hourly. The first hourly candle in the setup contains the 1 minute one above 🙂

The blue line at 13763 is a level based on the close of the bear candles that form the setup, see the video for full details.

We will study these closely and look to see how often they form and how reliable they are.

09:25

Super Micro Reversal Buy FIBCON@PW High

Yet again we see a Reversal FIBCON…

This one was a super micro one that occured when price moved down to the D1 EQZ@13757, I did not see this in real-time and it required great timing and precision to see and trade but the setup was there due to the 13757 level had good context.

So far there have been two Reversal FIBCONs, both micro setups and both at levels/zones where a reversal was a high probability.

 

09:14

Super Micro Reversal Sell FIBCON@PW High

Yet again we see a Reversal FIBCON…

This one was a super micro one that occured when price failed to hold above the PW High. 

It was also a type of Double-Top, a pure price action pattern.

I was in buy mode and passed on it but easy afterwards to see it was a zone of RESCON and a great sell.

 

Tue 11th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:52

Sell FIBCON Loser At PW High, -0.96R

I used a Sell Limit to enter this trade and was pleased with the overall setup. The only think going against this trade was it was a sell trade in a bullish envrionment but it ticked enough boxes for me.

It took 51 minutes to play out but eventually resulted in a loser.

 

 

10:08

Possible Sell FIBCON At PW High?

If price reaches the PW High there maybe a sell FIBCON?

  • Point A is taken from the High/PM High
  • Point B is taken from the H1 EQZ@13558
  • The GZ has the PW High in the middle of it.
  • The 61.8 level is perfectly confluent with the H-KZ@13607
  • The top of the IKZ is confluent with the D1 EQZ Midline@13610

The H-KZ@13607 might act as Role-Reversal for this setup, see the M5/M15 charts.

09:47

M1 Sell FIBCON Small Winner, +0.37R

I passed on the M1 Sell MAB due to the context, a good call. I then entered a sell FIBCON as shown with point A taken from the PW High and point B from the H1 EQZ@13558, this setup was much better value but I was still wary of the context so once price went into a micro-range I closed out for a small winner.

09:24

Two Sell’s, 1 Loser, 1 Winner

Price continued on up to the PM High and then reversed back down. I was anticipating a Reversal FIBCON and entered a sell trade using the Trade Tool but the better option would have been to use a Custom Sell Limit order to filter spikes.

A gap up meant I took a 1.29R loser, I entered another sell trade for a 2R winner. Price then continued on down all the way to the H1 EQZ@13558, the Reversal FIBCON did not structurally play out on this occasion.

07:28

Price At High’s

After yesterday’s range day price began moving up late in the session. In the overnight market it’s continued on up to make new high’s.

Will it be able to hold these and continue OR fail to hold and move back down?

Mon 10th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:04

Naming Conventions

To distinquish between the different Key Zones I’ll use the following from now on:

  • Hourly Key Zones = H-KZ
  • Intraday Key Zones = I-KZ

10:40

M5 Sell MAB Small Winner, +0.37R

I took the M5 sell MAB when price retraced back up to the D1 EQZ@13463, it started well but once price failed to continue below Yes Low I closed out due to the price action so far this morning, that proved a good call.

It’s been in a small range and did provide two decent sell opportunities, an M1 Sell MAB at 08:30 and yet another Sell Reversal FIBCON when price moved back up to the H-KZ@13489

Selling at the 13489 level was also justified based on point A being taken from the HH produced ay the 7am candle at 13518 and point B from the LL’s at 13445, this produced a GZ where the 61.8 level was confluent with 13489

Over the last few weeks I’ve noticed several REVERSAL FIBCONs (both buy and sell) when price reaches major key levels, most often the H-KZs which are shown by the magenta lines.

The one today at 09:18 was a Grade A which I didn’t see in real-time but take a good look at it:

  • Point A was at the H-KZ + I-KZ@ 13490
  • Point B was at the bottom of the I-KZ@13476
  • The GZ was just above the top of the same I-KZ.

This was another great example of at least two components of the Grid forming part of the A-B-C pattern. The context was also excellent, take a look at the H1 chart and look-left from this level, note 2pm and 4pm last wednesday on the 5th Feb.

We must hard-wire into our reasoning and thinking when price reaches these levels “Will this produce a Reversal FIBCON?”

Thu 6th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

Wed 5th Feb

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:43

Passed on M1 Buy MAB Winner 🙁

I was not sure of the best place for point B and ended up talking myself out of this M1 Buy MAB due to the context at the top ofthe Hourly KZ@13372

09:12

Important Hourly FIBCON

This FIBCON marked up on the hourly chart shows the importance of the higher time frame context.

Point A is taken from the D1 EQZ@13167 and point B at Yes High+The Hourly KZ@13303 and look where the GZ falls?

The 61.8 level@13220 is right at the session Low which was followed by the huge bull spike up.

08:41

Correctly marked up FIBCON

WOW!!!

This is a great example of how important it is to mark up the A-B-C correctly!

If point A is taken from the Low then the GZ shifts lower and look what happened before price shot up. I made point A fit with the M1 MAB and on the M1 chart you risk getting caught up in noise, that’s exactly what happened to me!

Points B & C are confluent with the KZs and point A the session Low – ALL Grid components.

It’s SO clear afterwards that this was a great opportunity to ride the move up from the bottom of the Hourly KZ@13240 to the top@13305.

08:19

M1 Buy MAB Loser, -0.53R

After finding support just after 8am a bull spike pushed back up through the 13240 level. I took the M1 Buy MAB and ended up with a loser after reducing my risk.

Had I not done that I would have taken the full 1R. My 2R target was at point B so pleased with that part of the setup.

I was anticipating that the bulls would be able to push higher but I got caught up in the battle around the 13240 level.

07:16

Why I almost never trade before 8am

This M1 Buy MAB that formed just after 7am is a good example of why I almost never trade before 8am.

It had good structure and good Role-Reversal when you look at the M15 & M30 charts but due to relatively low liquidity these tend to be low probability.

Plus the spread is 1.5 pips between 7-8am. At 8am it drops to 1 pip and the London traders join in providing greater liquidity.

07:04

Morning Review

Yesterday was a very bullish one that saw price move back above the 13167 level stopping just short of the midline@13315.

It reached the Hourly boundaries at 13303 to set the high of the session as shown below on the H1 chart.

Note how well price moves up and down the zones…