daxtrader

Thu 26th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:41

Today’s Video

 

11:12

Bullish Morning, no trades taken.

It’s been a bullish morning so far with the only valid setup forming at the highs and I passed due to it looking like it could be the top of a range.

The M15 chart below shows this possible TOR structure.

However, I read it wrong and it was actually price naturally interacting with a KeyZone and the buy setup was with the current trend and should have been taken!!!

Wed 25th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:27

Today’s Video

 

14:01

Reversal FIBCON off Session Low

I’m not able to trade this afternoon but am checking in on the price action and have just noticed this great example of a Reversal FIBCON off the session low.

This is a superb example of how the existing chart structure that’s been overlaid has captured the A-B-C reversal FIBCON pattern. After this mornings strong sell-off price has reversed up of the Low offering a buy setup as shown.

Also note how the bottom of the KeyZone (see down arrow) precisely rejected the current move up. These KeyZones and levels were defined weeks ago and have been projected into the future and locked into position by the Trade Controller.

Members are welcome to download and use this accurately defined Grid structure so we can share and support each other more effectively in our trading 🙂

12:25

Sell Setup at Key Structure

After a strong sell off which offered no safe entry based on our rules price eventually retraced up to the key level at 12177 to offer a micro sell setup back down to the top of the KeyZone.

I was not at my desk to consider this but it was valid using the Trade Tool on the M1 chart. I’ve used the M5 chart as the setup is much clearer. If point A was taken from the bottom of the higher KeyZone at 12203 the Golden Zone fitted well BUT we don’t force-fit things, the setup was based on the existing horizontal Grid structure which had decent Role-Reversal.

10:24

Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone

The earlier sell setup developed into a “Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone” which is covered in a separate video. It’s core structure is made up of an Outer-FIBCON and an Inner-FIBCON.

08:28

M5 Sell MAB Setup

I passed on the M5 sell MAB just after the 8am open when price retraced back up to the Open. It would have worked out but I felt price might want to test the PM High so decided to stand aside.

This zone at the Open has since held price after failing to move above. The next key level is Yes Low if the bears can take control.

This structure turned into something we’ve called a “Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone”, see post above.

Tue 24th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:46

Today’s Video

 

10:18

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -0.93R

Price eventually broke below 12350 so I marked up the M5 sell MAB and entered as shown. I went well but failed to reach the 2R target. I moved my stop at 1R to half the risk but when price came back up to the 12350 level I moved it back because I’ve seen such a major level require two failed attempts before the bulls give up and didn’t want to get just stopped out only for it to on and be a winner.

That didn’t work out, that’s the challenge of trade management!

The trade setup passed all the boxes for me and I’d take it again…..

I could argue I was a wee bit too generous with my stop but the 2R was above point B which is always ideal.

09:24

Major Level – Beware of selling!

The hourly chart show why this level is key. We need to see a clear break below, if so then a sell trade on the retrace back up to it might be on.

09:22

Major Level – Beware of selling!

This screenshot shows why we must be very careful at key levels. The move below 12350 was soon met by the bulls which trapped any aggressive bears selling at the level.

The triggered stops of the trapped bears produced  the bull spike up up, stand aside and wait patiently for clear price action.

09:16

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Range session so far with the key level@12350 in play. The spike down I used to mark up possible reversal FIBCON and would have worked out for a quick 2R but I passed on it.

Thu 19th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:44

Today’s Video

 

07:56

M15+H1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.00R

I spotted this potential early breakfast at 06:45 and marked it up ready for the 7am open. I entered the trade on the M5 chart at 07:20 with my stop just above the 12400 level and the 2R target well above point B.

This trade was a great setup – see M30 chart below – as the top of the KeyZone at 12396 was in play last week as a Yes High and was key structure in a winning sell trade. Price did push briefly above it but failed and moved down strongly afterwards to results in a winning trade 🙂

This is perfect example of Pure Price Action where the trade was based solely on structure, solely on support and resistance.

Below are two screenshots, the first one shows the M5 chart marked up anticipating the trade before the 7am open. Note the spread is 5 pips – top left of chart –  at 7am the spread drops to 1.5 pips then 1.0 pips at 8am.

The second one is of the M30 chart where the top of the KeyZone at 12396 shows why this was a must take trade due to its previous importance from last week.

Trade setup below…

Why the trade was a must take shown below…

Wed 18th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:17

M1 Sell FIBCON Loser, -1.00R

I took a sell trade back down into the range after price failed to break above the Open and KeyZone. It ticked enough of the boxes for me and I’ve seen these setups work out and would have looked to get more than 2R if correct.

The market is challenging right and even though we only trade purely technical setups  the geo-political environment is being driven by events in the gulf that can affect traders decisions to commit, this can result in range bound markets.

I passed on the M5 buy MAB – point B – due to price possibly coming back down into the range. On this occasion it would have worked out!

The key thing is to be consistent and follow our trading plan and control risk!

Below is the M5 chart showing the range.

Tue 17th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:41

Today’s Video

 

08:56

M1 Buy MAB Loser, -1.01R

After price found support at the BOR (see M15 chart below) it moved up strongly to the top of a KeyZone marked up on M15 chart. As it was not the TOR I entered a buy trade on the pullback anticipating that price would then move on up to the TOR at the Open plus the 12409 level.

The trade lasted 18:30 minutes and tested my stop a few times before moving up but then failed to go any higher and came back down to take me out. Ranges are tough to trade but I liked this setup and have seen similar ones work out but not this one.

Chosing the best point A was between two points but either one would still have resulted in a loser.

Below is the M15 chart showing the range and KeyZones  in play.

Mon 16th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:20

Example of low quality M1 Buy MAB at TOR

This is great example of a low probability M1 Buy MAB due to the context. It had decent structure but the context was poor due to the range bound nature of the session so far.

This was a failed break-out of the range.

 

15:07

Today’s Video

 

10:31

Example of low quality M1 Sell MAB

A tough range bound session offering no decent setups and the M1 sell MAB marked up is an example of a low quality M1 MAB.

This type of price action we must learn to indentify and leave well alone! What can help is to have on display great setups to remind you of what “Juicy Salmon” look like.

Time to switch to other projects for now……

09:12

Price is currently range bound

Price has not offered any setups as it’s been range bound so far…..

A move down to and break below 11350 might offer some sell setups but the bullish mood is still dominant.

An impulsive move that makes new highs might offer sell setups….

08:42

Early setup from Friday

I forgot to post this on Friday, a great example of a pre London Open setup that was worth taking. I was not at my desk but spotted it as soon as I looked at the charts just before 8am.

What makes this trade compelling is the excellent Role-Reversal – Look-Left.

Fri 13thSep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:41

Buy Setup@Yes High

I switched to buy mode when price broke clearly above Yes High. The 61.8 level was perfectly confluent with it for a buy setup with decent Role-Reversal AND it would be with the bullish trend!

I had to leave my desk so used a Buy Limit as shown, however, price reached the 50% level and moved back up.

I have to switch to other projects so will cancel the buy limit. This morning I seemed to see only TOR sell setups.

11:54

Second sell loser, selling at Top of Range

I’ve just taken my second sell loser, both trades were trading micro-structure at the top of a range, however, the bullish momentum has gone against me.

This second trade had a poor entry due to a bit of FOMO, however, it would still have failed had I got a better entry at 12470.

Price had creeped up to Yes High after a strong move up off the key level@12435, a level overlaid from the M15/H1 timeframe, the M15 chart below shows why I was looking to see if it would be the Top of a Range at:

  • Yes High
  • The H1 EQZ Midline@12473
  • Top of a M15-H1 KeyZone

I was trading into a bull move but the plan was – if right – to trade price back down into the range for more than 2R.

See below how precise the top of the range@Yes High is.

11:45

First sell loser, selling at Top of Range

I took the first sell setup when price reached a possible to TOR at the key level of 12435, see M15 chart above.

If correct I was looking for more than 2R on the way back down into the range, not this time though as the bulls continue to be in control.

Thu 12th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:38

Today’s Video

 

13:02

Reminder of Red Flag/High Impact News

I’ve just taken a look a the price action since the earlier trade, a reminder of why we don’t trade during High Impact news annoucements.

10:17

GZ M5 Sell MAB Winner, +2.49R

After passing on the earlier M1 Sell Micro-MAB at Yes High I anticipated the sell FIBCON at the next retrace to Yes High as shown. It went on to become an M5 Sell MAB whilst I was in the trade.

I did consider going for more profit but closed out for +2.49R, price has since continued on down but pleased with the trade.

Below is the M15 chart showing a KeyZone that was used to support entering and managing the trade. This is a great example of how we use all the timeframes to trade.

08:48

Passed on great sell M1 Micro-MAB 🙁

I just missed taking this fast moving M1 Sell Micro-MAB on the retrace back up to Yes High.

It was cracker, I was again too fussy and wanted price to reach the 61.8 level@12400….

This a great example of how you need the Trade Tool to trade these fast moving intraday setups.

Wed 11th Sep

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:19

Today’s Video

 

10:27

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Winner, +4.09R

After just missing the earlier M1 Buy MAB I marked up the following FIBCON that resulted from the HH – point B that it produced. My stop ended up being just above the 12350 level and was tested twice before price moved up.

I moved my target based on the bullish trend up to the next M5 KeyZone and closed out for +4.09R profit. This was a trade of fine margins that on this occasion worked out for me. The Role-Reversal structure at the previous HH was key in my decision to take the trade.

On another day I’d have gotten the entry I wanted on the earlier M1 Buy MAB but that’s trading. However, points B and C of it became points C and A  respectively of the next buy setup which shows how we must be patient and wait for a setup to come to us.

09:11

GZ M1 Buy MAB – Just missed!

At 8am price moved up briefly to the H1 KeyZone@12350 before moving back down to find support in the M5 KeyZone above Yes High. When price moved up strongly and broke above 12350 I marked up the M1 Buy MAB.

The Role-Reversal was excellent between 12337-12340 but price failed to come into the GZ and moved up strongly off the 12342 level, this level was the top of the wicks that formed the GZ – Look-Left.

I really liked the setup and was poised ready to enter, it felt like a juicy salmon had swum tantalisingly close to my strike zone before quickly moving out of reach!

I’m pleased that I anticipated the setup, I’m pleased I waited patiently for a value entry, I’m pleased that I didn’t chase price when it failed to reach my trade entry level.