daxtrader

Mon 18th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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16:06

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

I’ve not traded today but have spotted a decent Micro-M1 FIBCON that formed just beofre 2pm when price moved up off the H1 Bear Channel and H1 EQZ@11261.5

In real-time it would have looked very tempting and after Friday’s bullish mood buy trades would have been preferred. 

What’s really worth noting is the Micro-Role-Reversal at the 61.8 level, that gave the setup great structure.

As always, it’s SO easy after the event but this is why we must hone and hone our pattern recognition skill so that we filter all but the best!

Thu 14th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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07:11

Key Area on Daily

Yesterday price was range bound mostly in the Golden Zone between 11125-11221, today will be interesting, this zone is key.

Wed 13th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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15:05

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

I’ve just taken a look at the afternoons price actionto see this great sell FIBCON that formed when price moved up strongly to the top of the range.

Point C was perfectly confluent with the M5 EQZ@11204.2 and contextually price was coming back down into the range which why the M1 Buy MAB was another low probability.

 

11:15

Today’s Video

 

10:09

GZ M1 Sell MAB Winner, +1.81R

When price broke below Yes High I switched to sell mode as mentioned in the earlier post. After testing the H1 EQZ@11133.5 I marked up the sell setup as shown and waited to see what happened if price came back up to point C.

The Open+Yes Close+H1 Bull Channel+H1 Bear Channel were acting as possible Role-Reversal resistance so I entered the sell trade as shown once price struggled to get above the H1 Bull Channel.

I moved my target lower in case the energy of breaking through the 11133.5 level would lead to a significant move down but once price paused I closed out for a decent winner.

The setup ticked the boxes mentioned in the earlier post and worked out. The key bit of price action was the break below Yes High followed by the intersection of Grid structure at point C.

09:07

Low probability GZ M1+M5 Buy MAB

A Range day so far which means MABs and FIBCONs will be lower probability. After moving back up off the low at Yes High price tested the session High and reversed just below.

The M1 and M5 MABs shown were therefore low probability. I was ready to enter the M1 Sell MAB shown but price did not reach the MA and the 61.8 level, however, a decent setup as the Role-Reversal was good, look-left.

If price can break below the Grid structure between Yes High and the H1 EQZ@11133.5 then some decent sell setups might form?

08:31

Low probability GZ M1 Sell MAB

At 8am price sold off strongly down to Yes High and the D1 Bull Channel, both of which are major Grid levels.

The M1 sell MAB shown is a great example of a low probability setup due to the context. Over the last few days the bulls have in control so unless it’s a great sell setup the bias is for buy trades.

Sometimes these sell setups workout but we must always be asking:

  • “Can I see the A-B-C with excellent Role-Reversal?”
  • “Do I have great structure?”
  • “Do I have great context?”

When you can answer “Yes” to these then our edge is in play!

Tue 12th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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12:46

Today’s Video

 

09:44

GZ M1 Sell MAB Winner, +0.29R

This trade was very similar to the earlier one only this time the 2R would have come in had I not moved my target. I trailed my stop just above the MAs and ended up with a small winner.

It had good structure and OK context as price had failed to hold above the H1 Bull Channel and the H1 EQZ@11133.5

My 2R target was ideal in that it was above point B and the earlier point B, should have left it alone but very happy with the setup.

08:43

GZ M1 Sell MAB Loser, -0.25R

When price broke back below the H1 Bull Channel and the H1 EQZ@11133.5 I took the M1 Micro Sell MAB at point C. It started well but was a short-term Counter-Trend setup so I reduced my risk straight away.

I moved my stop to just above the Grid structure for protection but the bulls took over so I ended up with a small loser.

Overall not a bad trade, structurally it was decent and I’ve seen these workout. Contextually it was a CT trade and was managed accordingly.

07:22

Bullish overnight session

A bullish overnight session has led to price moving up to the D1 EQZ@11104.0, the FIB tool shows a Golden Zone between 11124.7 – 11187.0?

Mon 11th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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15:45

Good Struture – Poor Context M5 Sell MAB

The M5 sell MAB above is a great example of: Good Structure – Poor Context.

The short-term range that’s formed had the 11000 level close to its mid-point. This range made the sell at point C a low probability even though it had good confluence:

  • H1 Bear Channel.
  • The 110000 level.
  • 61.8 level@11001.4
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line@11000.4
  • M5 MA

The A-B leg is a clear impulsive move but the Lower-Low at point B was really a failed breakout of the bottom of the range. Sometimes these sell setups workout but the reason I passed was the range context.

A range like this does not offer high probability MABs and FIBCONs and I prefer to standaside and wait for more favourable price action.

14:22

GZ M1+M5 Sell MAB

I’ve just come back to my desk to see a decent Micro-MAB that formed when price broke back below the H1 Bear Channel and the 11000 level. The retrace back up to the 61.8 level was confluent with:

  • H1 EQZ@11006.2
  • M5 EQZ@11008.2
  • M1+M5 MA’s

Overall the price action so far has not offered any clear setups, this one was structually decent, not great context but it worked out.

10:02

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

Price has continued to move up after the session low from Friday. There’s been no buy setups though I did mark up the above sell FIBCON  at the D1 Bull Mid-Channel@11020.0 but passed on it due to the context.

Price had retraced down below (point B) the H1 Bear Channel and the H1 EQZ@11006.2, then found support and continued up.

A key level in the short-term is Yes High……

Fri 8th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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Wed 6th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

Fri 1st Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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11:00

GZ M5 Sell MAB

NFP today and I’ve not been trading but have just taken a look at the morning’s price action to see a great M5 Sell MAB.

These are the one’s to patiently wait for, both structurally and contextually excellent!

Tue 29th Jan

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:12

GZ M1 Buy MAB Loser, -1.00R

I ended up taking a buy Micro-MAB after the break above the Open and Yes Close. I reasoned price might target the in play D1 EQZ Mid-line@11251.0 but after starting well it didn’t work out.

Looking at the M15 chart Yes Close was also the top of a range and the break above was actually a failed breakout.

The lesson here is to have waited until price moved up more towards the 11251.0 level and then retraced, this would have reflected much more bullish energy in play rather than a low energy breakout that failed.