daxtrader

Thu 11th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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19:45

Today’s Results

Not a great day, two of the trades I’d not take again, the 4th and the 5th.

Quite tough reading some of the price action after the big sell off yesterday as the market digested things.

The first trade I should have had a full 2R from and the second – buy – trade should have been at least 4R due to the context, I should have let the trade run for longer.

19:38

Buy at SUPCON loser, -1.12R

The idea was right BUT I entered too early!!

The best value was at the H1 EQZ level at 11526.8, the M15 chart showed this. 

19:34

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -0.99R

This was fast moving Micro-MAB just after the US Open,  structurally it was ok but did not work out.

14:09

Sell at RESCON loser, -1.37R

I allowed myself a second bite of the cherry when price came back down to the 11643.2 level and after reassessing the history of the level.

It started off well but stalled at the D1 Bull Channel at 11627.5. If the level had broken then multiple R was possible but on this occasion it did not work out which would have more than made up for the -1.44R loser.

 

14:04

Sell at RESCON loser, -1.44R

You can see why I’d wished I’d let my buy trade run higher 🙁 

I sold at RESCON with my stop above the major H1 EQZ level of 11643.2, I did move it to allow for this. Price had already been reversed by this level/zone earlier but on this occasion it did not work out.

13:57

Buy at SUPCON winner, +1.99R

I anticipated a buy at SUPCON if price came down to the 11521.7 level as it was confluent with the 61.8 level of the current Golden Low-High zone.

I got a great entry but my stop was larger than I’d preferred. I closed out for 2R but did plan on seeing how high price might go, wish I had….

Very happy with the trade….

09:58

Sell at RESCON winner, +0.35R

After yesterdays huge sell off it was a question of “What next”?

I identified an area of RESCON and entered when price reached the zone but did not get the best entry. I moved my target lower anticipating a follow on of the bearish mood.

That didn’t happen and I ended up with a small winner, if I’d have gotten a better entry the 2R would have come in BUT I did move my target as explained so not sure what that would have resulted in.

Pleased with the setup, another great example of the Grid highlighting where event zones are likely to result in opportunities.

Wed 10th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:58

Todays Results

20:53

Video Commentary

14:27

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON winner, +3.09R

The earlier anticipated sell didn’t play out but another did 🙂

Once the H1 EQZ level at 11899.9 broke then I marked up the Golden Zone and found a 61.8 perfectly confluent. I waited patinetly and was rewarded with a +3.09R winner.

I was tempted to ride price lower but have to leave my desk so wanted to be out of the trade.

Below is the hourly chart, note the H1 EQZ level at 11899.3, superb Role-Reversal structure that supported taking the trade.

11:04

Anticipating Sell Setup???

If price was to move lower I’ve marked up a possible sell setup at the 11900 level with point B at the PM Low ???

10:13

GZ M5 Sell MAB winner, +2.10R

I took the M5 MAB and this time did not touch anything!!

I was 0.1 pip from being stopped out but it worked out and went on to be a +2R winner 🙂

 

09:10

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON loser, -0.79R

Ouch!!!

I really liked this sell setup and got a great entry with my stop just above the M5 EQZ Mid-line at 11952.8 but when price moved up to test it I closed out!!!!

My stop was perfect, did not let it play out 🙁

Price then reversed and has gone on to reach the 2R target 🙁

Good setup, good anticipation, POOR trade management.

The Golden Zone had decent confluence supporting the sell trade:

  • H1 Bear Channel
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • M5 EQZ at 11945
  • M15 KeyZone (not shown)

Tue 9th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:23

Today’s Results, -1.00R

Only one trade today, it was a good setup but was just stopped out before price when on to be a multiple R winner.

14:02

GZ M5 MAB sell loser, -1.00R

I was just stopped out on this GZ M5 Sell MAB, price went on to sell off very stringly, one to have ridden down for multiple R !!!

Mon 8th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:24

Today’s Results, +4.22R

A good day 🙂 

20:22

Video Commentary

I’ve videoed todays trades as follows:

00:00-07:18     Live Buy Trade off SUPCON

07:19-11:35      Commentary on earlier trades.

11:36-14:12      Anticipating sell MAB trade.

14:13-16:45      Live sell trade.

16:46-18:12      Trade analysis

 

16:26

GZ M1 MAB Sell winner, +0.99R

I’ve passed on two good sell setups but did take this GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB. I liked the structure and context but got a bit greedy pushing for multiple R, ended up with +0.99R.

Very pleased with the trade, once again I’d anticipated it well in advance, should have done better than 1R though.

13:20

Buy off SUPCON winner, +2.30R

Price eventually made its way down to the D1 EQZ at 11987.7 and the H4 KeyZone at 11986.0 where I was sat waiting….

I ended up buying at the level but covered the H1 Bear Channel below resulting in a larger stop than I’d like. I got +2.30R which was great but I missed the GZ M15 MAB sell at the H1 EQZ level at 12027.3!!

Very pleased with this trade as it was anticipated from early this morning 🙂

11:32

GZ M15 Sell MAB winner, +2.02R

When price failed to break below the BRN of 12000 where I was waiting to buy at the zone of SUPCON at 11987.7 I marked up the M15 Sell MAB at the PW/Yes Low.

I sat waiting for just over 30 mins before a late breakfast was served 🙂 Very pleased with the setup though we can never be sure if price will spike up before reversing, this makes setting the stop loss a challenge at times.

I made sure my stop was well the PW/Yes Low and was able to get a decent 2R target.

Note the perfect Measured-Move off point B at 11997.8 up to the 12050 level, I’d marked this on before price reached it, another reason why I loved the setup.

08:52

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -1.09R

I took the first setup after 8am which was a sell M1 MAB.

The 61.8 level was just below the PW/Yes Low, not bad plus I was able to set my stop above the M5 EQZ mid-line at 12058.6 and the 2R target above point B.

This one did not work out, I reasoned that if price was going lower this is where it might offer a chance to enter the move down.

Fri 5th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:45

Todays Results

Just the one trade today.

11:14

Buy at RESCON – D1 EQZ Mid-line, +0.63R

I was The Bear, I waited patiently and took the buy trade at the major D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

However, I ended up with a wide stop and closed out for +0.63R. Price came back down below the D1 and H1 Bull Channels, I closed out but had I not then I’d still be in the trade.

I would like to have ridden this up for multiple R but today that didn’t work out.

What’s important and key is that we anticipated the precise level that price reached before reversing, that’s the Power of the Grid in action 🙂

NFP soon so I’m not trading for now…..

06:42

NFP Todayat 13:30

NFP today so expect the markets to slow down late morning.

Keep an eye on the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7, if price sells off and reaches it then expect some action 🙂

Thu 4th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:58

Todays Results, +0.20R

After three losers it was good to end the day breakeven 🙂

Such fine margins as always!! On the 3rd trade (-1.54R), if I’d not been stopped out by 0.1 of a pip then I planned to ride the move back down for multiple R.

16:41

GZ M1 FIBCON, +2.27R

After price sold off once the US came online I anticipated at sell setup if price retraced back up to the area of RESCON at the Open.

I was pleased with the setup and trade entry. I did try for more R but closed out for +2.27R when price reached an M15 KeyZone that had reversed price in the past.

After three losers today its great to have two winners and get back to breakeven.

I was SO close to a multiple R trade at the 12346.2 H1 EQZ level earlier, very happy with following my process 🙂

14:42

Two Sells at RESCON 1 loser, 1 winner -1.54R, +1.55R

A higher zone of RESCON at Yes High looked a good sell setup.

I entered as shown but my stop was just below the H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12346.2, I ended up moving it just above after confirming the strength of the level on the M15 chart.

This is the ONLY acceptable time to move a stop, when structure justifies it and you have confirmed this.

Look how close I was to staying in the trade when the US opened at 14:30, such fine margins!! After the bearish strength of the reversal I entered another sell trade and got +1.55R. Price has since continue to sell off 🙁

What I’m pleased about is how well I anticipated the setup.

14:16

Sell at RESCON sell loser, -1.07R

Sold at area of RESCON:

  • Open
  • Yes Close
  • D1 EQZ at 12283.3
  • H1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel

Very happy with my entry and stop, it was above the RESCON, this one didn’t work out.

10:15

GZ M1 FIBCON sell loser, -1.01R

After price was held by the first zone of SUPCON I took a sell trade on the first decent retrace. My reasoning was that if it was going down to the second zone and the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7 this might be where it would turn around.

The only thing going against the trade for me was selling into SUPCON, a good enough reason to have passed on it.

Even though it was a loser I liked it because of the Grid components that protected my stop:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12218.6
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line at 12217.4
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • Top of M5 EQZ at 12225.2

So not an aweful trade at all from a structural POV, it was however a low probability trade. If I was right and price had targetted the lower zone of SUPCON I may well have moved my profit target to more than 2R.

Averaging 3R trades mean you only need to be right 30% of the time to be profitable.

My plan was to then buy at the 12135.7 level at it’s such a major level, see earlier post today.

07:39

Two areas of SUPCON?

After yesterdays German holiday the DAX has moved down strongly after the 7am open. If it does continue to sell off then there are two potential areas of SUPCON as shown above.

The first one is at Yes Low / PW Low where the D1 Bear is in play.

The second one is at:

  • The D1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ at 12154.6
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

This one has the very important D1 level at 12135.7, the Daily screenshot below shows this. 

Also, if point A is taken as shown at 11922.4 then the 61.8 level is 12127.3 adding to the area of SUPCON.

Tue 2nd Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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08:29

Mad Opening!!!

Wow!!!

What an opening, at 8am price sold off strongly down to the area of SUPCON as anticipated. I was waiting to see if it would test the D1 Bear Channel or the PW Low. 

I decided to wait for a buy setup if the SUPCON reversed price. It certainly reversed price but no setup as the bull spike up to the H1 Bull Channel was untradable!!

The move back down has left me thinking that it’s best to stand aside and wait for things to settle down as the current price action is not tradable or clear at all.

Below is the updated H1 chart showing how price reached the area of SUPCON and reversed. It then stormed up to the H1 Bull Channel at 12300 to produce an H1 MAB then came all the way back down.

06:36

Area of SUPCON?

If price sells off and gets below Yes Low there is an area of SUPCON at the D1 Bear Channel.

Mon 1st Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:17

Todays Results: +3.81R

A great start to October 🙂

14:54

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.58R

I adjusted the Golden Zone and area of RESCON so that point A was taken from the PM/PW High on the H1 timeframe – see below.

The 61.8 level was therefore confluent with:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left along the 12355.4 level you can see the great Role-Reversal structure below on the H1 screenshot.

It took a few hours for price to eventually reach the area of RESCON but was worth waiting for 🙂

11:52

Two sells, +0.51R, -1.01R

When price broke down through the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 I got drawn into two sell trades. Neither of them were good trades!!

The loser was structurally a better setup but low value in the context of the current bullish mood.

10:39

Updated area of RESCON

I’ve updated the area of RESCON mentioned earlier. This point A is taken from the PM/PW High, this shifts the Golden Zone up to a better looking sell zone at the 61.8 level.

The RESCON consists of:

  • 61.8 level 
  • H1 EQZ at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left there is very good Role-Reversal structure.

10:35

Sell loser at RESCON, -1.02R

I took a sell when price was struggling to break above the area of RESCON at 12326.7, it did not work out, a bit choppy whilst price resolves this area.

08:23

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.75R

At 8am the price moved up above the area of RESCON consisting of:

  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ
  • D1 EQZ
  • 61.8 of current Golden High-Low zone
  • H1 MA

When it failed to hold above it I sold the move back below it. I waited for a micro-retrace back up to H1 Bull Channel and entered a sell trade as shown.

I moved my target down to just above the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12262.5, this worked out well resulting in a +2.75R winner 🙂

07:40

Possible RESCON?

After Fridays sell off price is currently sat above the Open waiting for the London open.

On the H1 chart above I’ve marked up a Golden Zone where point A is taken from just below Yes High. If price was to move up then a juicy salmon might be seen around the 12326.0-12337.0 zone.

Thu 27th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:33

Two Sell winners, +0.58R, +2.19R

I took a sell trade that was not great value so I closed out for +0.58R due to the M1 MAB which was the better setup as shown by what happened afterwards.

After failing to hold above the Open price moved back down below Yes Low and the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 to produce a Lower-Low. The Golden Zone was at Yes Low so I sold the retrace for a +2.19R winner.

After the move down and the move back up off SUPCON price is currently ranging with Yes Low being approximately the middle of the range.

10:27

GZ M5 MAB Sell loser, -1.35R

The area of SUPCON held, I was waiting to see if price would test the H1 Bull Channel but the H1 Bear Channel was the turning point.

I took the GZ M5 Sell MAB but inside I knew due to the SUPCON it was a low probability, so will pass on a similar one next time. The gap meant I had a -1.35R loser 🙁

09:10

Two sell trades off the Open, -0.96R, +7.76R

At 06:40 I updated the blog to show an area of potential SUPCON.

I reasoned that price might retrace up to the Open to offer a sell trade, if so and Yes Low breaks then multiple R is available.

My first trade was a loser but when price moved back below the Open I took another sell, this proved a good call as it resulted in my best trade since going live 🙂

The reason I was OK with entering the second trade was based on the probability of multiple R being available if price broke below Yes Low. It was the Price Action Grid that supported this reasoning based on the area of SUPCON.

I moved my taget to just above the area of SUPCON. If I’d have been more patient I could have got more from the trade but was very pleased with the result.

07:19

MAD M5 Micro-MAB at 7am Open

Just before the 7am open price moved down to test Yes Low. Just as the 6:59 candle was about to close price shot up to the Open.

It retraced slightly then paused for a few seconds before 7:00, at the open price gapped down as shown.

Structurally it was a great Golden Zone M5 MAB but difficult to trade as we don’t enter trades during the 7am and 8am opens due to the gaps but this one would have worked 

06:40

Area of SUPCON??

The H1 chart shows an area of possible SUPCON between 12255.1 and 12282.6

  • D1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 Bear Channel
  • D1 MA

If price breaks below Yes Low then there’s white space on the way down the D1 EQZ at 12282.6