themabtrader
Mon 26 Nov 2018
Two potential sell trades reacting to the Fib levels plus the short-term keyzone and keyzone midline drawn from previous price action.
Fri 16 Nov 2018
Would’ve hit my 3R Target if I hadn’t closed out the trade!
I found these channels, and after two interactions with then, I thought I would take the third.
I exited the trade after a candle opened above the channel boundary, and it looked like price could move up to the 5min ema. At the moment price has moved back down into the channel but it hugging the underneath of the boundary.
I’m pleased that I took this trade after seeing price reacting to these channels twice for confirmation, without much hesitation. I’m pleased that I exited this trade for a smaller than 1R loss when it looked like price might start moving against me. (Even though price is now moving down to my +2R profit target as I type this…). I used key structure in the M5 EQZ for a Stop Loss level, and before exiting the trade, had my Profit Target at 3R, near the D1 Bear Channel, which I considered a target.
Confluence of D1 EQZ, H1 Bear Channel, M1 Channel and FibCon.
Thurs 15 Nov 2018
I felt that this was a good set-up, and the previous support would act as resistance.
The strong bullish move up the the Entry point, couple with the period of consolidation at 11300 which allowed Bulls to amass energy, should have been a warning that Bulls were now in control and this might not be a good trade to take! I even thought about this as the bullish impulsive move formed, but FOMO took over and I entered the trade.
One good trade, bookended by one bad trade and a couple of weird trades.
The first -1R loss as price broke previous SUPCON, was anotherHBS trade, with a bit of FOMO. Annoyed that I had missed the SUPCON the first time around, I thought the market might be giving me another chance at it, to form a double bottom. After such a long bearish move previously, this was a stupid thing to think, and that was just HBS trying to trick me into a trade, which it did!
The following +2.32R at SUPCON was much better, and I was able to take profits comfortably before the Inner-Fib 50. There was a confluence of:
- D1 EQZ midline
- H1 EQZ midline
- 11259 level which I picked out on the D1 chart and finessed on the H4. (I’m still not sure how much weight these levels hold and was mostly taking note of the D1 and H1 as SUPCON, however this level seemed to play it’s part here.)
Letting the emotion of a winner get to me, I decided to go for the 1min MAB forming, at first not liking my entry and so I entered a second trade with a better Entry level! What a bad decision! Lucky I was able to exit the first trade without a loss, and reduce the loss of the second trade by bringing my Stop Loss down.
I didn’t take this as I am waiting for the 15min or 1hour MAB at the 11397 D1 EQZ, and wasn’t sure if the 5min MAB would happen.
Note the time, at the turn of the hour, maybe this was enough to give some weight to the 5min MAB?
I’m incredibly frustrated with this one, as I made such a basic error that meant I missed out on it! I think Alex has had this problem before, I remember reading about it on someone’s blog…
I did everything right! Waited patiently for price to move down to the Lo-Hi GZ, did not take the 15min or 4hour MAB as I felt that the 1hour MAB inside the Lo-Hi GZ was the better set-up. It edged its way down slowly, I could see Bulls were eager to get price moving up again, so knew that I would only have a short entry window. I hit CRTL-E as price was near the 1hour ema, perfect Entry! Or not!
I’d clicked on the window showing the M5 timeframe to mark something up five minutes before, so when I hit CRTL-E the trade didn’t execute.
Consecutive M5 MABs, which look like they take the Fib levels drawn from first the bottom, then the top of the gap’s ‘white space’ zone.
Is this trendline in play, and will price react to thise level of RESCON?(Around 11600)
There was a big gap up this morning to, or just above, this level of previous support and resistance, at about 11434. Is this a signal of intent by the bulls? Should we be looking at buy trades today, or this morning at least?
Wed 14 Nov 2018
I thought I should put my Stop Loss below the M5 EQZ, but I wanted my 2R target to be at Yes. High, and so decided on a tighter Stop just below the 61 Fib level. This turned out to be a bad decision for this trade, and the strength of the bearish move should have been a signal of bearish momentum which would require a larger Stop distance. I’m not sure yet whether this trade would have worked out had I done this. Allow higher timeframe key structure to dictate where to place Profit Targets and Stop Losses in order to maximise the potential for profit.
A big difference here from the bad trades I’ve taken this week. I marked this up in advance, waited patiently for the Entry, used the key structure to dictate where my Stop Loss was placed and took profits below the Inner-Fib 50 level.
Fear of missing out in play here. I could see this was a good place for RESCON and was expecting a retracement in price after abig rise in price. Rather than wait for signs that price was going to turn around and be patient for a good set-up, I took a trade and it turned out badly! Be patient for a good ABC set-up!
I should have cut the trade, as I could see it was not working. Cut trades earlier when price action suggest that it may be turning against the trade.
I really wanted to take this trade, but hesitated and missed out, I think because I had just had a loser. I shouldn’t let these emotions dictate whether I enter the trade or not. Be more decisive in taking trades after marking up a good set-ups.
You can see in this screen I’ve marked up a possible sell at point B of this set-up, and also a sell trade that is currently live at the same level. I did not enter the first trade as I was waiting for a touch of the D1 EQZ which never came. The current live trade has been executed with the new Zone Penetration sell limit order to test it out. I’m not sure the RESCON will hold, and I can see price moving up to the 1hour ema and PW Low soon.
I thought that the confluence of the 5min ema and the D1 Bear Channel would be enough resistance for price.
The context, coming off the D1 Bull Channel midline, should have been enough to warn me this trade was low probability.
After another day yesterday of ignoring my rules and letting emotions get in the way of trading, today I really need to work on sorting that out.
If I am feeling the Hungry Bear Syndrome and havent taken a trade in a while, I must recognise that feeling and take steps to avoid making silly trades.
If I am feeling boredom from sitting at the computer for too long with no trades, I must take myself away from the computer so I don’t make mistakes.
If I see price movement with a good ABC pattern set-up, I must take the trade!
Yesterday we saw price come down off 11600, down through 11300, and then retrace past the 61 Fib level to the 11500. Will price continue to be bearish and start to make Lower Lows, oe will the D1 Bear Channel at the 61 FibCon give support and send price back up towards the Daily and/or Weekly ema?
Tues 13 Nov 2018
Ended the day how I started, with another bad trade.
I predicted at the beginning of the day that we might see resistance from this level, and also might see price push through it later on. This is what happened, but I did not follow my own advice once again.
I thought that this afternoon I had regained some composure after the bad day yesterday and this morning’s performance, however that seems not to be the case!
After seeing a couple of good sell opportunities, I could feel that Hungry Bear Syndrome start to creep in, perhaps mixed with some boredom that I had been sat for a while with no trades, and entered into another stupid trade. There was some confluence of the 5min ema and 61 Fib level, but the context was not right, coming up off the D1 Bear Channel.
I got handed two chances to take this trade, but didn’t take either. I lacked confidence in the RESCON, and didn’t like that there was seemingly no key structure to put my Stop Loss behind. I would have been able to take +2R before the Inner-FibCon 50 level.
Missed this one as I was looking for a touch of the H1 EQZ for Entry.
This is at least the second time I have noticed this happen. Going by my rules, I should have been alert and prepared for this, however at the time of it happening, I wasn’t sure if price was going to start rising after coming up off the D1 EQZ, so I did not take the trade.
Another SUPCON into 1min MAB set-up.
I got my Entry levels almost spot on, although my Stop Loss level for the 15min MAB SUPCON could have been tighter to give 2R below the Inner-FibCon 50 level.
The Entry for the 1min MAB was perfect, but I panicked and exited the trade. This could have been a 2R+ trade! I think if I had had a better morning and trading day yesterday, I would have held onto this one for full profits. I should not let emotion from previous trades impact on my current trades.
Annoyed that my last trade played out in the way that it did, I went into a trade that did not have a good set-up.
My thinking was that price would find support at PW Low and the 5min ema would send price upwards again. At this point, before entering the trade, I had marked up the 15min MAB forming, and this should have been a good enough reason not to take this trade. Do not get drawn into lower probability trades and be patient for higher timeframe set-ups.
If I had left the Stop Loss where it was, I’d be looking at the +3R profit that I had been targeting with this trade, at PW Low!
I had to do something away from the computer, just after entering this trade. I set up a series of LiP levels to ratchet up the Stop Loss for me as price moved up.
Price moved up sharply to hit the LiP level, then down within minutes to hit the Stop Loss at break even, then began to climb once again.
Price is getting very wicky and uncertain, and I am sensing a big move in price soon, possibly another attempt at the D1 Bull Channel RESCON.
At the end of last week I set myself some rules that I should be following in order to cut out mistakes I made in the week. If I had followed those rules, I would be in a much better position that I am in today.
- I would NOT have taken the first 1min MAB after it had made a high, or the most recent 1min MAB at the D1 EQZ. Do not get drawn into lower probability trades and be patient for higher timeframe set-ups.
- I would have taken profits on my second trade at the Inner-Fib GZ. Trust the Inner-FibCon levels when deciding where to position Profit Target.
- Something I did not note but remember thinking when writing the end of week review, was to be more alert to set-ups forming consecutively and quickly. This would have put me in a good position to take the 15min MAB that formed.
Impatient, breaking rules, not good.
After the last trade, I made a big mistake of taking my eye off the charts to update the blog. This meant that I missed the 15min MAB that I had been anticipating, as it happened faster than I thought it would.
I then entered another trade, selling against the 15min MAB, which I quickly took myself out of for a small loss when I realised how stupid I was being.
I gave back all my profits by not taking profit at the Inner-Fib GZ 50 level.
I was anticipating another attempt at the 4hour ema RESCON, and so had my TP at the high, and a Lock in Profit level at my 2R, to move my Stop Loss just underneath the PW Low.
Price did not hit my 2R level, and so the LiP did not trigger, and as price came down, I held onto the trade hoping for a reversal.
If price retraces we could see a 5min MAB at either the 11388 or 11397, the H1 and D1 EQZ respectively.
Are we going to see a turn in price at the 4hour MAB?
Or did price find its Fib level yesterday/this morning, and now start working it’s way up past the 4hour ema to the Weekly ema?
Maybe we will see a bit of both!
Mon 12 Nov 2018
The set-up had already happened by the time I came back to the computer, so I did not have the chance to mark up and anticipate this trade. I hung on for a deeper retracement to at least the D1 EQZ level, which never came.
Impulsive bull move, retracement to GZ with 1min ema, and 5min ema not far below. Price looked to be coming up off a low, broken up through a previous short-term resistance.
In comparison to the last two trades, I feel like this one had a good set-up which warranted a trade.
Monday Morning Mistakes #2
I’m embarrassed to post this, so soon after the last one.
Counter trend, not a great deal of supporting confluence, and exactly the same premise as my last trade which failed. A tight Stop Loss gave no room for the movement of price.
Monday Morning Mistakes – Wake up Joel!
Weak SUPCON, below Lo-Hi GZ, did not get a good feeling before the trade, I should have taken my own advice which is to lay off the trades until I feel in tune with the market movement!
End of Week Review | 5th-9th November 2018
10 trades, 4 losers, 6 winners | 60%
+4.23R
Consistency of daily routine and trading every day for the past month has been paying off. I am happy with a 60% hit rate, and of the four losing trades, only two were ‘Would Not Take Again’ trades. Although I think an average of 2 trades per day seems quite low, there were many potentially profitable price movements that I marked up on each day, and with more trust in the key structural levels I could have had a greater number of profitable trades.
My expected profits after 6 winners and 4 losers should be at around +8R (6×2-4×1=8). The reason my results don’t mirror this is because of greater than expected losses with the trades on Monday and Tuesday, and smaller than expected profits with 5 out of the 6 winners. 2 of these 5 winners could have seen larger profits with minor tweaks to the trade management, 1 trade could have had better trade Entry level, and the other 2 achieved maximum profit in the context of the trade. The reasons for the larger than expected losses were due to sharp spikes in price, which could not have been predicted. In 1 of these loses I should have moved my Stop Loss to break even earlier to prevent a substantial loss.
The takeaways from the last weeks trading, and things that I will focus on next week are as follows:
- Look to move Stop Loss to break even or into profit earlier, in order to be prepared for a quick move against the trade, especially in ranging conditions.
- Cut trades earlier when price action suggest that it may be turning against the trade.
- Do not get drawn into lower probability trades and be patient for higher timeframe set-ups.
- Allow higher timeframe key structure to dictate where to place Profit Targets and Stop Losses in order to maximise the potential for profit.
- Trust the Inner-FibCon levels when deciding where to position Profit Target.
- Be more decisive in taking trades after marking up a good set-ups.
Monday 5th
1 trade, 1 loser | 0%
-1.34R
15:59
M1 15min MAB | Sell | -1.34R
With trend, good Entry, good Stop placement, good patience. Passed on two lower probability setups at the 1min and 5min ema. An unforseen spike in price led to the loss. Should have moved Stop Loss tighter or to break even earlier to control losses.
Tuesday 6th
1 trade, 1 loser | 0%
-1.32R
10:25
M1 failed 1min MAB FibCon | Buy | -1.32R
Good impulsive move in set-up, good Stop placement, Entry could have been better for closer Profit Target. An unforseen spike in price led to the loss. Could have been more patient for the higher timeframe set-up.
Wednesday 7th
2 trades, 2 winners | 100%
+2.93R
09:53
M1 5min MAB | Buy | +0.93R
Marked up well in advance, good patience and a perfect Entry. Well managed, exited trade as soon as it looked to be turning. Should have moved Stop Loss within the 50 Inner-FibCon level to maximise profits.
14:54
M1 SUPCON | Buy | +2.00R
Marked up in advance and waited patiently for Entry. Waited for price to pause, then push a bit lower to get a good Entry level. Was a bit lucky that price hit the 2R level, and I should have taken profits at the 1min MAB.
Thursday 8th
4 trades, 1 loser, 3 winners | 75%
+3.12R
08:55
M1 failed 1hour MAB | Buy | -1.05R
Not very good confluence, strong bearish momentum and so should gave given price more room to move with the Stop Loss. Should have paid more attention to the price action, with a gap down and strong bearish candle before trade.
Would Not Take Again.
09:43
M1 SUPCON | Buy | +1.51R
Good SUPCON of higher timeframe key structure. Good patience for perfect Entry level. Could have used the structure for a tighter stop to squeeze more profits. Learned from my mistake yesterday and took maximum profits at the 1min MAB that formed.
09:54
M1 1min MAB | Sell | +1.08R
Good awareness and preparation for this 1min MAB to form. Taken at the 50 Fib level which is not always best, but in this context it was the right place to enter the trade. Good skill to switch from a buy trade directly into a sell trade to maximise profits.
13:18
M1 5min MAB | Buy | +1.58R
Good set-up with a bullish impulsive move breaking out of a short term range, and a retracement to the top of this range zone, with good confluence of key structure. Should have trusted structure for a closer Stop Loss, and been slightly more patient for a better Entry level.
Friday 9th
2 trades, 1 loser, 1 winner | 50%
+0.84R
08:40
M1 5min MAB | Sell | +1.85R
Good set-up, good Entry and Stop Loss placement. Should have trusted the higher timeframe D1 Bull Channel structure and left Profit Target at 2R, or gone for slightly more profit to make the most of this move.
09:16
M1 5min MAB | Sell | -1.01R
Lower probability trade, selling down into key structure after price coming up from a low. Could have saved this trade by trusting short-term structure I had marked up, moving Profit Target accordingly, but probably should not have taken this trade in the first place.
Would Not Take Again.