themabtrader

Fri 09 Nov 2018

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<< Thurs 08 Nov

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End of Week Review >>

11:06

M1 FibCon + keyzone | Sell

The Golden Zone and Trade Entry Tool are where I was sat waiting for price to reach, for the 15min MAB.

For this screenshot I’ve moved the Fib tool to the top of the Bearish candle which started the impulsive move. It seems that these were the levels price was reacting to, and the reason it did not push higher up to the M5 EQZ and 15min ema.

10:56

M1 5min MAB | Sell

The chance to get a good entry with this trade came and went too quicky, and I missed out.

I was wary of price moving up further to the 15min ema for a MAB at the underside of the M5 EQZ.

09:16

M1 5min MAB | Sell | -1.01R

The finest of margins. Price touched my 2R Profit Target, but did not trigger it, just before turning around and shooting up.

I should have moved my target just above the short-term keyzone that I had drawn instead of leaving it inside, and I should have moved my Stop to beak even once price had broken the D1 Bull Channel.

08:40

M1 5min MAB | Sell | +1.85R

I caught this one just right with a tight stop, and moved my Profit Target just above the H1 EQZ midline.

Since this screenshot, price has moved down to the session low; had I anticipated this I could have gone for a much higher R-value trade!

Thurs 08 Nov 2018

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<< Wed 07 Nov

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Fri 09 Nov >>

14:26

M1 1min MAB | Buy

A very similar trade to the last one, off the top of the short-term keyzone. I was waiting for retracement to the 61 Fib level and the 5min ema, but it never came and so I missed out on this one.

13:18

M1 5min MAB | Buy | +1.58R

I didn’t get the perfect entry, and so I settled for +1.5R with the Profit Target just underneath the Daily ema and the bottom of the M5 EQZ.

A good setup here, a retracement to the top of the short-term keyzone, and the H1 Bull Channel midpoint in the vicinity for support. I put my Stop Loss underneath the 4hour ema for extra support, although perhaps this wasn’t necessary.

10:02

M1 SUPCON into 1min MAB | Buy then Sell

An almost identical move as the last, with SUPCON at:

  • D1 EQZ midline
  • D1 Bear Channel midline
  • 11550 level

The move back up formed another 1min MAB inside the GZ, with the previous SUPCON now acting as RESCON.

I should have taken these trades too, but wasn’t on my toes after the last setup.

09:43

M1 SUPCON into 1min MAB | Buy then Sell | +2.59R

Phi made a comment yesterday afternoon that I had in my head all through this trade, and it paid off well.

I prepared for the SUPCON as price broke the 11600 level, and noted the confluence between:

  • H1 EQZ midline
  • 61 Fib level
  • Daily ema
  • D1 Bull Channel midline

I got a decent entry, then immediately prepared for the 1min MAB setup. I gradually moved my Profit Target for the SUPCON trade, keeping it just below the 1min ema.

As price formed the 1min MAB right at the 50 Fib level, I entered a sell trade with a stop safely behind the 11600 level, and took profits at +1R, expecting a bounce off the H1 EQZ or Daily ema.

09:08

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I got put off by the bullish candle and the gap up inside the GZ.

Here you can see another short-term keyzone that I’d failed to draw up before the last trade. Having this structure in place for the last trade could have saved the loss!

08:55

M1 failed 1hour MAB | Buy | -1.05R

The gap down and the lengthy bearish candle down to the 1hour ema should have warned me about the momentum of the bears in this move, but I liked how it interacted with the short-term keyzone and the Fib levels so entered the trade.

Wed 07 Nov 2018

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<< Tues 06 Nov

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Thurs 08 Nov >>

14:54

M1 SUPCON | Buy | +2.00R

I’m really pleased with this one, as I waited patiently for a great entry, had a tight stop and so +2R was well within reach.

The SUPCON consisted of:

  • D1 EQZ midline
  • D1 Bear Channel midline
  • Yes. High
  • H1 Bull Channel midline
  • 11550 level
  • Lo-Hi GZ

I wanted to enter the market at Yes. High and the D1 Bear Channel, around the 11552 level. However, I had noticed previously that price will often stall for a moment, then push lower before climbing back up, so I waited for the move to the D1 EQZ midline before taking the trade. I had considered putting my Stop Loss behind Yes. Close for support but decided against it as I wanted a tighter stop and therefore a closer 2R target; this turned out to be a good decision for this trade.

(15:20) UPDATE: Seeing how price has just moved, it looks like this was a lot more luck than skill? I’m even more glad now that I kept a tight stop, as had the trade not hit +2R I might well have hung onto it hoping that price would start to move higher!

13:35

M1 5min, 15min MAB | Sell

This had potential, but wasn’t conforming exactly to the Fib levels and didn’t get a good touch of the 5min or 15min ema, so I left it alone.

10:35

M1 FibCon + ST-KZ | Sell

I considered this one, but it didn’t retrace as deep as I would have liked, as I wanted the 2R well within the 11600 level as I was concerned about its support.

The short-term keyzone I’d marked up earlier captured the turn in price, and I could have used this as an entry point but I wasn’t sure about the probabilities.

10:12

UPDATE: M1 5min MAB | Buy | +0.93R

Letting this trade play out would have netted me the +2R I was looking for.

Could this be another opportunity for a RESCON Sell?

09:53

M1 5min MAB | Buy | +0.93R

Not the best of results from a good setup, although I am happy with some profits.

I moved my Stop Loss up to break-even when price reached the first short-term KZ, then up to the 1R mark when it got near the Inner-Fib GZ.

The takeaway from this trade would have been to trust in the Inner-FibCon and put my Profit Target just below the 50 Fib level, which price touched before it turned around.

09:30

M1 RESCON | Sell

I really wanted to take this trade. It looked good, the levels had been tested and they resisted, and I could see price was going to make its way down towards the 5min ema.

I did not take this trade, as it did not conform to an ABC pattern, it was the first trade of the day which I often jump into without reading the market correctly, and I decided to be patient for the 5min MAB which looked to be forming.

Tues 06 Nov 2018

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<< Mon 05 Nov

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Wed 07 Nov >>

10:25

M1 failed 1min MAB FibCon | Buy | -1.32R

I took this trade anticipating a move off the bottom of the 5min EQZ (which had been previous support and resistance) with price moving up into the Daily Hi-Lo GZ.

A sharp bearish move saw me lose -1.32R!

The better option would have been to exercise more patience and prepare for the 15min or 1hour MAB trade when price worked its way up into the Hi-Lo GZ. If I had done this and focussed on a higher probability setup, I would not have taken this trade.

10:06

M1 FibCon | Sell

Didn’t take this because I was wary of the 5min ema coming down to form a MAB. Wish I had now!

07:52

M1 Consecutive FibCon | Sell

Consecutive FibCons in a drop in price just before the 8am Open.

Mon 05 Nov 2018

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<< Fri 02 Nov

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Tues 06 Nov >>

15:59

M1 15min MAB | Sell | -1.34R

First and last trade of the day. I really liked the setup for this trade, but a quick bullish move took me out for -1.34R!

I picked this out on the M15 timeframe. A bearish move to create a Lower Low and the day’s Low, with the 61 Fib retracement sitting inside the Hi-Lo GZ with the 15min ema.

Price has since moved down to hit my +2R target.

Is there something I missed that caused price to spike up to the 1hour ema, or is this just part of a ranging day?

Fri 02 Nov 2018

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<< Thurs 01 Nov

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Mon 05 Nov >>

16:00

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Very tempted by this one. The reason I didn’t take this, was because I would be selling down into the level I previously bought at, the FibCon, 11550 level and Daily EQZ midline.

Price turned at 16:00 after touching the 5min ema.

14:40

M1 FibCon | Buy | +1.88R

I noticed and marked up this FibCon on the M15 timeframe. It was inside the Daily Lo-Hi GZ, and the 61Fib fell right on the 11550 level, with the Daily EQZ midline just below it for support.

Price had to push through the Hourly and Daily ema to find this level, which made me wary, but I liked the way price reacted to touching the 11550/61Fib level and so entered the trade.

I marked up the Inner-Fib GZ, and brought my 2R target down just slightly to sit inside the GZ. This turned out to be a very good decision as price turned around at this point and would not have hit my original 2R target!

When price was at the Daily ema and Yes. High, I almost closed the trade for around +1.5R, however I decided to let it play out. By this point I had moved my Stop Loss to break even so was not worrying about any losses.

13:54

M1 15min MAB | Buy | -1.00R

I got suckered into this buy trade, when I should have been in Bear mode with price coming down from the high, almost touching the 11693 target.

My mistake was coming back after an afternoon break, and not spending enough time on all timeframes, marking movements up and getting back into the flow of the market.

10:50

M1 5min MAB | Buy

If the 5min ema was closer to price and inside the GZ, I would have taken this trade.

10:18

M1 1min/5min MAB | Buy | +1.04R

Impatient and should have waited to bring in the +2R profit.

I was worried that price wouldn’t break the M5 EQZ border, and wanted to cover my previous loss. Just before I exited the trade, there was a red candle, and a small gap down, and I panicked and closed the trade.

08:58

M1 1min/5min MAB | Sell | -1.02R

A little frustrating! I wanted my 2R Profit Target above the 11600 level and so needed a tight Stop Loss. A couple of pips more and I might’ve have come out of this with a good profit!

08:06

M1 5min MAB | Buy

5min MAB + FibCon with a tight stop and +2R within 50% of the Inner-FibCon.

I did not take this because I have not got into the flow of the market yet this morning, and the strong Bearish candle put me off.

Wed 31 Oct 2018

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<< Tues 30 Oct

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Thurs 01 Nov >>

15:36

M1 5min MAB | Buy | -1.00R

I got drawn into this, when I shouldn’t have really been trading. I liked the impulsive Bull move and the Higher High, but things are choppy and I should have left this alone.

15:04

M1 15min MAB | Buy

Potential 2R trade. I didn’t enter the market as I don’t like how rangey and choppy price has been this afternoon.

10:02

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +0.02R

I wanted a stronger move through the D1 Bull Channel, where I decided I would then move my Stop Loss to break even. The Bullish candles after the touch of the Bull Channel made me feel uncomfortable and I looked for an exit.

I should have taken the 5min MAB that formed, especially as I was watching it, and wary that price would target it. I think I was just relieved to be out of what I saw as I losing trade, and didn’t get my focus back quickly enough to get a good entry of the 5min MAB.

09:15

M1 15min MAB | Buy | +1.53R

I closed this one out due to impatience, when I should have left it and let it achieve the +2R target.

08:45

D1 Daily MAB setup | Sell

08:34

M1 1min + 5min MAB | Buy

Potential +2R with this trade. I saw the setup, liked where the GZ sat at Yes. High and the top of the M5 EQZ, but thought there might be a deeper move to the D1 Bull Channel so didn’t enter the trade.

08:26

M1 SupCon trade update | Buy

Had I not closed out on the last trade, I would have easily brought in my +2R target and then some if I’d been more ambitious with the Profit Target!

08:10

M1 SupCon | Buy | +0.14R

I entered the market at the Supporting Confluence of the:

  • D1 EQZ
  • D1 Bear Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • 11400 level
  • H1 EQZ
  • Open

I had drawn up the Inner-FibCon and this would have helped me to achieve +1R, however I held onto the trade believing it would push higher after coming off the support levels.

Price came down off the D1 Bull Channel stronger than expected, and I quickly closed out for +0.14R.

I should have trusted my instinct that price was going to move higher after the SupCon bounce.

Tues 30 Oct 2018

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<< Mon 29 Oct

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Wed 31 Oct >>

15:09

M1 15min MAB | Sell | +1.94R

The chance for the 15min MAB came around again, and I took it again. This time it played out as expected. I had my Profit Target just inside the Inner-FibCon GZ and just above the 11259 level.

13:43

M1 failed 15min MAB | Sell | -1.05R

After doing well not to have any losses getting drawn into the 1min and 5min MABs, I felt that this 15min MAB was the one to be taking. There was confluence between the 61 Fib level and the H1 Bear Channel, and a roughly drawn short-term keyzone seemed to be in play, however the market had other ideas!

13:43

M1 5min MAB | Sell | +0.20R

I got a decent entry, and marked up the Inner-FibCon, with my 2R above the 61 Fib level, but price turned at the D1 EQZ midline and I exited the trade with a minor profit.

13:28

M1 1min MAB | Sell | -0.04R

Came back to my computer at half past one, and saw this 1min MAB just as it was touching the 1min ema.

I entered a sell trade, but then quickly second-guessed myself and closed the trade as I felt I needed to give myself more time to read the price action before getting into a trade, and there looked to by higher timeframe MABs forming.

Just as I closed the trade, the long bear candle formed, but I am happy with the reasoning behind closing the trade, and shouldn’t be entering trades without first monitoring the different timeframes.

11:20

M1 15min MAB trade update | Sell

Trust in the Inner-FibCon would’ve brought me in +1.7-2R, however I stand by my reasoning to exit the trade when I did.

10:14

M1 15min MAB | Sell | +1.06R

At first I had my Profit Target just inside the Inner-FibCon GZ, underneath the 4hour ema.

When price stalled at the 11300 level, previous price action showed an area of Role Reversal, and so I closed the trade for a +1.06R profit.

I’m please with my decisiveness in these last two trades, the markup and management of the trade when I felt it was time to exit the market.

I also overcame my negative emotions at the beginning of the day and am now in profit, which is an important step for me where I would usually let the losses effect my later trades.

10:00

Chart-time 12:00 candle price action

The wicky and uncertain candles leading up to the 12:00 candle made me think that there was a chance of price turning. I was tempted by a trade with a tight stop at the M5 EQZ border (11310.1) which was also the 50% FibCon level.

I was patient and held off taking the trade, but was interested in the price action that occured at the turn of the hour.

You can see here that I had entered into an M15 MAB trade, and had been marking up the Inner-FibCons.

09:23

M1 SUPCON | Buy | +2.03R

SUPCON between:

  • Yes. Close
  • Open
  • D1 EQZ midline (11251.0)
  • H1 EQZ (11261.5)
  • H4 Key Structure (11259.4)
  • M5 EQZ (11257.2)

I also made a note of movement with bbqtrader’s trade idea in mind, which he mentioned yesterday. Marked by the black line just above the D1 EQZ midline.

Is this essentially an inverse head and shoulders?

09:00

H4 | Morning Thoughts

I’ve been expecting a move up to the Daily ema, with the GZ being a good Role Reversal zone, but with each rejection by the RESCON, it is looking more and more unlikely to happen.

This morning’s attempt at breaking the RESCON was slap bang in the intersection of the Daily Channels. This has seemed to have some effect, sending price down with strength, as shown in my previous blog entry at 08:25 today.

At the moment I’m unclear whether to be in a Bullish or Bearish mindset.

Price seems to be playing around the 11259 level, which has been drawn using the Weekly timeframe and then finessed on the H4 timeframe.

08:25

M1 5min, 15min failed MAB | Buy | -1.00R, -1.21R

My head isn’t feeling clear this morning, and it’s showing in my first few trades – reckless and impatient.

The 5min MAB (08:06) was a case of me trying to be too clever. I had alrwady marked up the 15min MAB, and thought I might squeeze 1R out of a small retracement when price met the 5min ema. WNTA.

The 15min MAB (08:14), I had anticipated and marked up beforehand. A strong spike down in price meant my entry was very close to my Stop Loss.

I haven’t done my ‘morning thoughts’ yet today, which has perhaps led to this bad read in price action.

Time to sit back a while, gather myself and start again.