themabtrader

Mon 29 Oct 2018

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<< Fri 26 Oct

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Tues 30 Oct >>

11:25

M1 RESCON | Sell

Update on the previous trade.

A wider stop would not have helped, and this just adds to the fact that I should have closed out at the H1 Bull Channel, confluent with a FibCon.

10:07

M1 RESCON | Sell | -0.93R

A mistake to take a Sell trade in a Bullish market, but I’d identified the 11937.9 level earlier, and I was looking for a place where price would stop climbing and begin to retrace.

A wider Stop might have kept me in this trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if price hung around at this level for a while longer before retracing the the Lo-Hi GZ area.

I will update later to see whether a wider Stop Loss would have made for a winning trade.

09:51

M1 consecutive FibCons | Buy

08:16

M1 FibCon + 4hour ema | Buy | -1.03R

A loss to start the morning, I think my read was almost right, I just didn’t account for the strength of the move back towards the Open. I knew that there would be a push towards it, but I thought that my Stop Loss gave enough space for movement.

My Entry was at the D1 EQZ midline and 4hour ema, with the 5min ema and Open as cover for my Stop Loss.

(09:00) Update: The mistake I made with this trade was completely missing the 15min ema at the Open. The best entry for this trade was taken by bbqtrader at 08:16.

08:00

D1 | Morning Thoughts

I start today with the same sentiments as Friday, and expect another day of price rising towards the Daily ema, with the 11397.9 D1 EQZ level as a target for now.

Fri 26 Oct 2018

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<< Thurs 25 Oct

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Mon 29 Oct >>

11:27

 M1 | Buy | -1.00R

10:31

 M1 SUPCON | Buy | +0.96R

I had been expecting this since the beginning of the day, so couldn’t talk myself out of taking it.

I was a bit impatient and could have waited for a better entry, but I’m happy with what I got.

I marked up the Inner-FibCon, and brought my Profit Target just below the D1 EQZ level at 11104. I was expecting price to push just that little bit higher and touch the 5min ema and/or the D1 EQZ, but it didn’t quite make it. This also meant I didn’t take the FibCon trade that presented itself.

I should have trusted the FibCon levels and based my Profit Target and my entry to a second trade on this level.

As price started to fall, I closed out the trade for an almost +1R profit.

09:51

 M1 1min MAB | Sell | -1.06R

This is so typical of my last few weeks. Missed a great trade through hesitation, then get drawn into a losing trade soon after, trying to be more decisive.

I was anticipating a move down to the support structure at Yesterday’s Low.

08:53

 M1 15min MAB | Sell

I did everything right here. Passed on two lower timeframe and lower probability trades, marked up the 15min MAB early and it was at the Hi-Lo GZ 61.8 level.

Once again I didn’t pull the trigger. I SHOULD be taking these trades.

 M1 5min MAB forming? + failed 1min MAB | Sell

I ended up passing on both of these set-ups, as I felt uncomfortable selling into the Support levels.

I am now looking at the 15min MAB at the Hi-Lo GZ.

08:13

 M1 1min MAB + Open | Sell

08:00

Morning thoughts – H1 timeframe

Could this RESCON be coming into play again today, with another 4hour MAB?

As the Channels start to ‘split’ apart, the RESCON will become less resistive, however, and there is a Daily MAB in play, so I will have to be wary of price breaking through this resistance too easily.

A day of Bullish Buy trades on the forecast for today again I think!

(08:20) Update: A Bearish spike has just occurred, are we looking at a Double Bottom at Yes. Low forming?

Thurs 25 Oct 2018

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<< Wed 24 Oct

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Fri 26 Oct >>

16:44

M1 5min MAB | Buy

Another 5min MAB with at least +1R on the table. Had I taken this, I would have probably closed out before the 11300 level.

16:28

M1 4hour MAB | Sell

Sat there with the trade tool, but didn’t take the trade as it just did not feel right.

There wasn’t a good place to put my SL without it being far away from the entry, and I didn’t feel the profit target was within a good range for +2R.

16:06

M1 5min MAB | Buy | +2.00R

Marked it up as price found resistance at the bottom of the M5 EQZ. I was hoping for a touch of the 4hour ema before coming back down, and I was ready to sell down to the 5min ema. The 4hour MAB didn’t reach the level I wanted, but I was ready for the 5min MAB.

I found a good place for the Stop Loss, and I think I got a decent entry at the H1 EQZ border.

12:49

M1 1min MAB | Sell

I was tempted by this, but did not take it as it would mean selling down into the 15min MAB. Possibly could’ve squeezed some profit it from it, but glad that I held off.

Time for some food now, I might be back in an hour or so for some more trading if my mind is clear and my attention up to scratch!

10:44

M1 RESCON | Sell | +2.02R

I chose greed at first, but as price started to turn I started feeling anxious, which is a good sign that I need to be out of the trade.

I think price has found its retracement level and will begin to turn now. The Low of the retracement was at 11:30, which may or may not be a notable candle.

I am happy with my entry and the way I managed this trade, although perhaps I should have taken the +2R the first time I had the opportunity and not let my greed get the better of me for ten minutes.

11:23

RESCON trade update

I sold into a trade at the RESCON, and it is currently hanging around the 5min ema.

My greed is telling me to look for a move down to the H1 EQZ midline.

My sensible side is telling me to take profits at the 5min ema in case of a 5min MAB.

10:07

Previous trade update – Manage your emotions!

If only I had been more patient and managed my emotions better, I would have acheived the +2R target of this trade. Instead, I came away with a -0.40R loss.

09:22

M1 FibCon + 1hour ema | Buy | -0.40R

Ten minutes of impatience and panic.

I was looking for a buy trade, knowing that price was on its way up to the RESCON.

The first trade (below, 09:15) was a bad trade, and I took it because I was impatient and worried that price would continue rising without much retracement. Would Not Take Again.

The second trade (above, 09:22) was a better trade, with the Hourly Bull and Bear Channels as support between my entry and Stop Loss. However, as price dropped near the 1hour ema I panicked thinking price was headed for the 5min or 15min ema, and so I closed the trade for a -0.40R loss. Had I been more patient, I could have taken some profit from this trade.

I should not have taken either of these trades, and been more patient for the higher probability set-ups.

09:15

M1 failed M1 MAB | Buy | -1.00R

08:37

M1 failed 1hour MAB | Sell | -1.00R

15 minutes on from noting that the price would be Bullish, and that I would be looking for buy trades, what do you think I did?

I sold at the 1hour ema, with the Hourly Bull and Bear Channels as resistance, and a profit target that was just above the 1min ema, as I was expecting a retracement to that level.

As I was looking for buy trades, I saw this late and entered the market without much planning. I am not suprised this lost.

I’ve also got an earlier 1min MAB marked up, which I missed because I was waiting for a deeper retracement to the 5min MAB.

08:20

Morning thoughts

It’s looking like we’re going to see a retracement in price today, and possibly the next few days. The Fib tool lines up with the previous SUPCON, and the 4hour ema is working it’s way down to meet price coming up.

There is also a Daily MAB in play, but I don’t think that’s something to worry about today.

I will wait to see how price start to move this morning, but I am expecting to take more buy trades today as the MAB sets itself up.

Wed 24 Oct 2018

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<< Tues 23 Oct

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Thurs 25 Oct >>

10:46

M1 15min MAB | Sell | +0.42R

I was feeling confident with this one, and now that I’ve closed it, I wish I’d let it play out for a bit longer. However, I’m happy with the set-up, entry, and management of the live trade with a small profit.

I was already wary of the bounce off the 5min ema, and some resistance near the 11300 level, and closed the trade after a Gap up, and a full Bull candle, which may be a sign of price starting to rise again.

I will now be on the lookout for that 1hour MAB that I mentioned earlier.

11:03

M1 15min MAB | Sell | +0.35R unrealised

I feel much better about the set-up of this trade than my previous one at the 5min ema.

It’s obvious now that this was the better trade, and I should have noticed and marked this up before entering into the 5min MAB.

I hope I am not saying exactly the same thing in an hour, when price moves up further for a 1hour MAB instead….

10:14

M1 failed 5min MAB | Sell | -1.09R

Here’s that bad trade that was just waiting to happen.

I’d spotted a couple of set-ups earlier on but didn’t enter the trade. Eventually I got frustrated with letting things go, and entered a poor trade.

Tues 23 Oct 2018

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<< Mon 22 Oct

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Wed 24 Oct >>

10:28

M1 failed 1min MAB | Sell | -1.01R

I think maybe I should walk away now, because I’m starting to do stupid things.

09:16

M1 SUPCON | Buy | -1.01R

Que sera sera.

I will have to find something better to sacrifice next time around.

The reason this trade failed was a bad entry. If I had been a bit more patient, I could have almost halved the size of my stop and brought in+2R well below the 11300 level.

I’m happy with my read, markup and patience for price to reach the SUPCON, but I just needed that little bit extra before I pulled the trigger.

10:08

SUPCON Trade Update

Things aren’t looking good at the moment, but I was expecting another test of the SUPCON.

At the moment I am sitting on my hands, giving the trade time and space to play out, and praying to the DAX gods, but I’m not feeling good about this one.

09:10

SUPCON

08:40

M1 failed 5min + 1min MAB | Buy | -1.00R

08:08

M1 failed 1min MAB (actual 5min MAB) | Sell | -1.00R

A decent set-up, but I failed to give respect to the 5min ema, at a point of known recent resistance.

Mon 22 Oct 2018

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<< Fri 19 Oct

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Tues 23 Oct >>

15:48

M1 failed 5min MAB | Sell | -1.01R

Not a very clear set-up, a tight Stop Loss and a Fib tool that I had to force to fit the price action.

Entrywas at the D1 EQZ midline, with that and Yes. Close as resistance.

15:03

M1 1min MAB | Sell

Confluence between the D1 EQZ midline, Yesterday’s Close,the 11550 level and the 1min ema.

I didn’t take the trade as price had fallen quite a way, to the bottom of the H1 EQZ, and I was expecting a deeper retracement towards the 5min ema.

14:34

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I had a much longer than planned break for lunch, when I came back I realised I had just missed this set-up.

Price touched the 11600 level and dropped off quickly.

11:17

M1 | Sell | -0.02R

This trade was always going out on a limb, but a confluence of the short-term keyzone, 61.8 Fib level and presence of the 4hour and 15min ema convinced me that there might be something in this, with a move back down to the H1 Bear Channel.

I’m very happy with my management of this trade, as a strong bull candle told me that the set-up was gone, the period of uncertainty was over, and that Bulls had the upper hand.

I closed out for a small loss, just as price broke up to where my Stop Loss had been.

10:53

M1 1min MAB | Sell

A second’s hesitation and I missed out on the entry.

09:30

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +1.82R

A significant impulsive move off the 11650 level down to Daily Bear Channel midpoint, retracement to the underside of the M5 EQZ.

I drew my Fib tool from the Lower Low to the H1 EQZ rather than the 11650 level where the move started, as although I’m taking note of how price interacts with these levels, I’m not yet confident to use them as key structure during set-ups.

08:30

H4

Price is currently at the top of the Daily Bull Channel. Will it begin to move back down into the Daily Channel or push on up towards the Daily ema?

07:00

Morning observations

Fri 19 Oct 2018

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<< Thurs 18 Oct

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Monday 22 Oct >>

11:23

5min MAB forming?

I was wrong about the MAB. I was expecting a slow climb to the 5min ema, so when this Bullish spike happened, I sat well back.

Is this the point I was talking about yesterday, where my concentration isn’t at 100% and I should step back for the day before I make any more mistakes?

11:10

5min MAB forming?

Or has price found a target at 11500, and start to move up to the Hi-Lo GZ and 1hour ema?

10:07

M1 5min MAB | Sell

RESCON formed by the interesection of M5 Channels and the11550 level, and the Daily EQZ midline for good measure.

I didn’t take this trade because it looked like price was on the rise, and I didn’t want to sell against that. I would have been looking to bring in 2R with a small move back to the Open.

09:14

M1 1min MAB | Sell

Another decent setup, another chance goes begging!

The Fib tool here is drawn from the Low to the H1 EQZ midline which had been acting as Support previously.

It’s all good and well to spot them, but at some point I need to hit CRTL+E!

08:58

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Too fussy waiting for a pull-back to touch the top of the 5min EQZ and 5min ema, and missed out on a good trade.

I did not make a note of the time. Had I seen that it was at the turn of the hour, I’d have taken a less-then-perfect entry. Even without noting the time, I shouldn’t have let this one go.

At least I was there to mark it up and notice it. Next time…

07:00

Observing the “hundred” levels

At 07:00 there was a gap up,right to the 11600 level. Price is currently working around a keyzone formed by the gaps white space.

08:00

H1 Overview

Today I’m expecting a similar day to yesterday. A rise in price in the morning, perhaps up to meet the 4hour ema at the Daily Bull Channel and H1 EQZ, and then a drop in price with the Previous Weeks Low, Daily EQZ (11397.9) and Daily Bull Channel as a target.The 11400 level is also in that area, and I’m interested to see how the “hundred” levels play a part today.

I don’t see price rising much higher than the Daily EQZ at 11693.8, and I suspect that the SUPCON of the previous week will now act as RESCON.

Today I will be looking for a session high, and then switching to Bear Mode to ride price down.

Thurs 18 Oct 2018

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<< Wed 17 Oct

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Fri 19 Oct >>

16:10

An update on the last trade. Fine margins, easily avoided.

15:31

M1 failed 5min MAB | Sell | -1.11R

This trade used the same resistance levels as my last trade, which might have been a mistake considering they did not resist price last time. I should have also noticed that price was retracing to the 15min ema, which I was also warned of with the last trade.

I believe this has happened because I’ve been sat at the computer watching the charts all day, and worn myself out. I should have stopped after the morning session, where I showed a lot of positives, I was happy with my read and picked out quite a few opportunities even if I only took one of them.

As I type (16:05), price is breaking through Yes. Low, and is looking to work its way down to where my 2R profit target would have been sat. A simple and easily avoidable mistake with this trade, had my attention been sharper!

14:40

M1 failed 1min MAB | Sell | -1.02R

After convincingly breaking through the 11693.8 Daily EQZ level, I saw this 1min MAB forming, and thought price would then move down towards Yes. Low and the Daily Bull Channel. I placed my stop behind the Daily EQZ border, 5min EQZ border and H1 Bull Channel midpoint, which I believed would hold as resistance.

14:30

Examples of interactions with 11700 level

I marked up the 11700 level yesterday when finding SUPCON for a trade. Here are some examples where price has respected the level. Something to think about in the future when price is near the round-numbered levels.

13:46

M1 RESCON + ST KZ | Sell

A risky trade which could have easily backfired, which I why I did not take it.

However, there was good RESCON with the Hourly Bear Channel midpoint, intersection of 5min Channels and the top of a short-term keyzone forcing price down, with a potential quick +2R to be had.

12:26

M1 4hour MAB + Lo-Hi GZ | Buy | -1.00R

I didn’t have a particularly good feeling about this trade either, but took it as the 4hour MAB inside the Lo-Hi GZ was something that I had been anticipating for a while.

(12:41pm) Update: My bad feeling was proved right, and perhaps in the future I should listen to my instinct. It remains to be seen whether a much wider stop would have prevented this loss. I should have stayed in Bear mode, as that had done me well up until this point!

I would not say that I am unhappy with this loss, as it was a trade I had marked up early on and ticked the right boxes.

11:44

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Another sell opportunity. A gap formed in the impulsive bear move, which proved to be the point at which price turned. In the screenshot above, I have also pulled the GZ from a previous trade forward which added more confluence to the trade.

My reason for not entering this trade was the presence of the 15min and 1hour emas, which price would have to break through to achieve +2R. I could have taken this trade and taken +1R with a profit target above the two moving averages, however I am practising patience, and only taking trades I get a particularly good feeling about, so passed on this one.

10:30

M1 Yes. Close + 5min Bull-Bear intersection | Sell

Another opportunity for a sell trade. A confluence of the GZ (Look Left), Yes. Close, the intersection of 5min Bull and Bear Channels and taking note that the time was at the half hour mark, made for a decent trade.

My next thoughts are whether to prepare for a trade at the 61.8 level of the Lo-Hi GZ, with the 4hour ema hanging around, and another 5min Channel intersection.

09:52

M1 Hourly Bull Channel RESCON | Sell | +2.10R

With the same mindset as my last entry, I sold as price touched the Hourly Bull Channel, also confluent with the 61.8 Fib level. I put my stop above the high as I didn’t think price would make a new high until after it had made a more significant retracement, possibly to the Lo-Hi GZ.

I was also tempted by the 5min MAB that formed at the Lower Low of this setup. With more confidence I could have taken another +2R, but I wasn’t sure there was enough supporting structure, and I was in a Bearish mindset.

I’m happy that I showed patience and passed on the 5min MAB, taking this RESCON trade instead.

08:52

M1 Daily Bull + Bear Channel RESCON | Sell

A good opportunity here to sell at the confluence of the the Daily Bear Channel, Daily Bull Channel midpoint and 5min EQZ. The Daily Bull mid had previously shown to be resistive.

08:30

D1 Overview

Yesterday I believed that after the H4 MAB and bounce off the SUPCON at the 11693.8 D1 EQZ level, price would begin to move up to for a Daily MAB at around 11940.

It’s also possible that we have seen the best of the daily retracement, as a Fib drawn from the Low up to a Daily EQZ midpoint (which was acting as support previously in the year) shows price neatly turning at the 61.8 Fib level (11853). There is also a keyzone in play, though I not sure how much weigh it really holds.

As I write this, things are looking Bullish, with an impulsive spike off the D1 EQZ supportive level, but this could just be the Bull’s last ditch effort to assert themselves before the Bears step in to push price to new Lows, which is ultimately where I think we’re headed in the next few weeks.

Wed 17 Oct 2018

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<< Tues 16 Oct

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Thurs 18 Oct >>

15:30

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I saw this 5min MAB forming straight after my last trade, but I wasn’t sure if price would be able to break through the Daily EQZ boundary at 11693.8, as it had proved to be good support previously today.

I was also wary of giving back profits so soon after a decent +2R trade.

With a fib tool drawn from the bottom of a 5min EQZ down to the Low, price retraced to a pip-perfect 61.8 level, where the bears stepped in to drive price down through the day’s supporting levels. Also of note, the turning point came almost exactly at the half hour mark.

15:22

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +2.03R

I liked the look of the impulsive bearish move off the 5min ema, and the retracement fell nicely at the H1 EQZ midpoint.

10:46

M1 4hour MAB | Buy | +1.37R

I got the MAB I had been waiting for!

The SUPCON I had identified earlier held, and I got a decent entry point for the trade.

I chickened out as price rose to the underside of the 5min EQZ and the 5min ema came down to meet it, and took a profit of +1.37R. With more trust in my read of the action, I could have stayed in the trade and taken larger profits, but after my ‘WTF’ moment earlier, I just wanted some profits.

I won’t even grace that trade with its own post. There was a knock at the door, and my attention got diverted. When I came back, I was so intent on seeing price rise for a 5min MAB that I ruined all the time I had spent waiting patiently, entered a trade, immediately regretted it and looked to close the trade at break even, which of course never happened.

I am angry at myself as taking these stupid trades was something only yesterday I promised myself I would cut out. There is good reason why I don’t trust myself to trade with my own money yet.

09:39

5min MAB – 1hour ema + H1 Bull Channel + H1 EQZ

09:33

H4 MAB setup?

A bit clearer on the M5, 5min Channels removed for clarity.

09:13

H4 MAB into Daily MAB setup?

A move down to the11693 level and 4hour MAB?

The gold line represents the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.

Tues 16 Oct 2018

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<< Mon 15 Oct

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Wed 17 Oct >>

08:49

M1 1min MAB | Buy | -1.20R

Another minnow that I should have left alone, especially as I was already in another trade when I took this one. I was lured in by the impulsive move to create the daily High.

I lost more than I should have with trade after moving the stop. Both trades where I have moved the stop have been minnows and have lost the most, something I seriously need to cut out.

08:26

M1 1min MAB + SUPCON | Buy | -0.98R

When I said that I would take the trade again at 07:58, I quite literally had the chance to take it again, with an entry and stop loss in almost the same place, but this time with a much more clear impulsive move leading up to it.

(09:47am) Update:

I ended up losing -0.98R on this trade due to greed and bad management of an active trade. Anticipating a move up to the Daily EQZ at 11693.8, I moved my profit target up to 3R, hoping to cover the previous losses and make some profit in the process. I had two chances to cash in at almost 2R, and then as price fell down through Yes. High I could have taken myself out for break even or a small profit.

Instead, I held on with hope that price would turn around, even though the H1 Bull Channel was proving resistive, followed by a clearly bearish impulsive move where I hesistated and sat on my hands, when I should have been cutting my losses.

 

08:03

M1 1hour MAB + Lo-Hi GZ | Buy | +1.48R

1hour MAB, Lo-Hi GZ, a no-brainer, in my eyes. I couldve held the trade and been more patient, but I wasn’t sure if the previous SUPCON would now act as RESCON and push price back down, so took the +1.48R.

07:58

M1 SUPCON | Buy | -1.00R

A couple of losing trades to start the day. The first one (pictured below 07:52) was a minnow that I shouldnt have taken. The presence of Yes. High lured me into taking the trade but there wasn’t much of an impulsive move beforehand, and not much other structure in confluence. I moved the stop behind the Daily Bull Channel as support, which resulted in a -1.41R loss.

The second trade (above, 07:58) was much better in terms of trading off the structure. The 4hour, 15min and 5min emas were in play, confluent with the Hourly EQZ border, 5min EQZ and Daily Bull Channel. Although I should have paid some more attention to the H1 MAB that was forming, the SUPCON was convincng enough that I would take this trade again.

07:52

M1 1min MAB + Yes High | Buy | -1.41R