Daily DAX

Fri 4th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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14:39

Today’s Video

 

 

11:54

Double Sell Golden Zone Multiple ‘R’ Setup

Another example of the “Double Sell Golden Zone Multiple ‘R’ Setup” pattern that I did a video on a few days ago. This had great structure!

Do watch the video for a full description of this pattern to see how pure price action patterns repeat themselves. Anticipating these in real-time is a skill that is SO worth mastering… 

11:34

M5 Sell MAB Setup

A decent M5 Sell MAB with Grid structure forming the A-B-C of the setup.

08:12

Beware the 8am Open!

This sell setup is a great example of why we must be very careful at the 8am open due to the energy that’s injected as the bulls and bears battle it out until things calm down and a clear direction is established.

After price moved down below the Open, I marked up the possible sell setup which had good structure where the 61.8 level was perfectly confluent with the earlier trades point B.

However I passed due to the context and experience from seeing how much price can spike around following the 8am open and when I looked the M15 chart – see below – the Low was moving back up quickly off a KeyZone.

07:34

M1 Sell FIBCON Winner, +1.93R

This sell FIBCON was a great example of trusting structure and using both the M1 and M5 charts to support taking the trade.

After the 7am open price moved down below the Open to produce a Lower-Low, I marked up the A-B-C as shown below and cross-referenced the entry point with a micro KeyZone I’d marked up on the M5 chart, see below.

I reasoned if price came up to the 61.8 level I’d take the trade as it passed all my rules, it was a “must take” trade imho!

To sell after a strong bull candle is not easy in real-time but this is where we either trust structure or we don’t. This worked out to be nice early breakfast on NFP 🙂

Below is the setup marked up in advance on the M1 chart.

Below is the M5 chart with the micro KeyZone, trade entry is shown by the arrow. Look-Left to see the wicks that supported the trade.

Below shows the juicy salmon about to be landed 🙂

06:53

Great Micro Buy Setups Early Evening

I didn’t trade yesterday but in the evening I took a look at the charts to notice the following micro structure on the M1 chart. If you’re sat watching this the bull candles might tempt to to consider taking a buy trade. 

I’ve positioned the Trade Tool accordingly and if you reasoned price is heading up to test the High then these two were decent setups, pure price action structure.

Wed 2nd Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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10:41

Today’s Video

 

09:14

Passed on M1 Sell MAB Winner 🙁

After the very strong sell-off at 8am I waited for a sell setup but price kept on going down until it reached a zone of SUPCON at the PW Low and the D1 Mid-line@12135. Last week this provided the floor before price moved back up strongly on the 25th Sep.

I marked up a possible M1 MAB as shown above but talked myself out of it due to the context. It would have been a winner, see below.

This is the challenge in real-time, and recently my bias towards reasons why not to take trades has resulted in me passing on winners, am I being TOO fussy?

I’m reminded of the phrase “Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital”.

07:24

Early Sell M1 FIBCON Setup

I did have this early sell setup marked up before 7am but the 7am candle was too fast and not really a good trade to try and take due to the power of the energy injected at the open.

However, at 07:03 another chance to enter was offered but I’d left my desk for a few minutes and missed it, I’m not sure I’d have taken it but it did confirm the Golden Zone was accurately marked up. Also the spread at 1.5 pips would have been almost the height of the GZ so not great value at that point in the session.

Tue 1st Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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17:37

Today’s Video

 

14:24

Two Sell Setups

I’ve not been able to trade today but did take a look earlier this morning before going out and then at lunchtime.

This is retrospective analysis that is always easy, trading in real-time is the real skill!

The screenshot above shows an M1 sell MAB after price moved up strongly following the 8am London open. It had good structure and context following a brief M1 buy MAB when price began to reverse. 

I’ve also marked up a low probability M1 sell MAB when price moved back above the D1 Mid-line@12430.

When I returned at lunchtime I spotted an M5 sell MAB that formed at 11:20am when price reversed up off the session low. What made this one worth taking was the MAB was confluent with the top of the KeyZone and the Role-Reversal (look-left).

Easy afterwards of course but in real-time I would have certainly considered this one.

Mon 30th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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10:03

Today’s Video

 

08:46

Measured Move from Friday

I didn’t trade Friday but just before heading out around 09:20 I took a quick look at the charts to see the screenshot above. After 8am price moved up to test – guess what – the 12350 level then moved back down.

Note how price interacted with Grid structure to produce a perfect measured move.

08:35

Choppy Price Action

At 8am price moved down to the key level at 12350, at 08:16 an M1 Sell MAB formed which I passed on due to the context as price had found support at the 12350 level.

I marked up the Buy FIBCON that followed which was decent but passed again and it was another good call as the spike back down to 12350 would have resulted in a quick loser.

It’s currently choppy, lacking direction and tough to read so unless a very clear move forms such as a break below 12350 I’ll stand aside today as I have to finish at 10:00 to attend meetings this afternoon.

This is “Being The Bear” and some days there’s just no decent fish swimming by, at best minnows but they’re tough to catch!

Thu 26th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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12:41

Today’s Video

 

11:12

Bullish Morning, no trades taken.

It’s been a bullish morning so far with the only valid setup forming at the highs and I passed due to it looking like it could be the top of a range.

The M15 chart below shows this possible TOR structure.

However, I read it wrong and it was actually price naturally interacting with a KeyZone and the buy setup was with the current trend and should have been taken!!!

Wed 25th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:27

Today’s Video

 

14:01

Reversal FIBCON off Session Low

I’m not able to trade this afternoon but am checking in on the price action and have just noticed this great example of a Reversal FIBCON off the session low.

This is a superb example of how the existing chart structure that’s been overlaid has captured the A-B-C reversal FIBCON pattern. After this mornings strong sell-off price has reversed up of the Low offering a buy setup as shown.

Also note how the bottom of the KeyZone (see down arrow) precisely rejected the current move up. These KeyZones and levels were defined weeks ago and have been projected into the future and locked into position by the Trade Controller.

Members are welcome to download and use this accurately defined Grid structure so we can share and support each other more effectively in our trading 🙂

12:25

Sell Setup at Key Structure

After a strong sell off which offered no safe entry based on our rules price eventually retraced up to the key level at 12177 to offer a micro sell setup back down to the top of the KeyZone.

I was not at my desk to consider this but it was valid using the Trade Tool on the M1 chart. I’ve used the M5 chart as the setup is much clearer. If point A was taken from the bottom of the higher KeyZone at 12203 the Golden Zone fitted well BUT we don’t force-fit things, the setup was based on the existing horizontal Grid structure which had decent Role-Reversal.

10:24

Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone

The earlier sell setup developed into a “Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone” which is covered in a separate video. It’s core structure is made up of an Outer-FIBCON and an Inner-FIBCON.

08:28

M5 Sell MAB Setup

I passed on the M5 sell MAB just after the 8am open when price retraced back up to the Open. It would have worked out but I felt price might want to test the PM High so decided to stand aside.

This zone at the Open has since held price after failing to move above. The next key level is Yes Low if the bears can take control.

This structure turned into something we’ve called a “Double Sell Multiple ‘R’ Golden Zone”, see post above.

Tue 24th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:46

Today’s Video

 

10:18

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -0.93R

Price eventually broke below 12350 so I marked up the M5 sell MAB and entered as shown. I went well but failed to reach the 2R target. I moved my stop at 1R to half the risk but when price came back up to the 12350 level I moved it back because I’ve seen such a major level require two failed attempts before the bulls give up and didn’t want to get just stopped out only for it to on and be a winner.

That didn’t work out, that’s the challenge of trade management!

The trade setup passed all the boxes for me and I’d take it again…..

I could argue I was a wee bit too generous with my stop but the 2R was above point B which is always ideal.

09:24

Major Level – Beware of selling!

The hourly chart show why this level is key. We need to see a clear break below, if so then a sell trade on the retrace back up to it might be on.

09:22

Major Level – Beware of selling!

This screenshot shows why we must be very careful at key levels. The move below 12350 was soon met by the bulls which trapped any aggressive bears selling at the level.

The triggered stops of the trapped bears produced  the bull spike up up, stand aside and wait patiently for clear price action.

09:16

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Range session so far with the key level@12350 in play. The spike down I used to mark up possible reversal FIBCON and would have worked out for a quick 2R but I passed on it.

Thu 19th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:44

Today’s Video

 

07:56

M15+H1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.00R

I spotted this potential early breakfast at 06:45 and marked it up ready for the 7am open. I entered the trade on the M5 chart at 07:20 with my stop just above the 12400 level and the 2R target well above point B.

This trade was a great setup – see M30 chart below – as the top of the KeyZone at 12396 was in play last week as a Yes High and was key structure in a winning sell trade. Price did push briefly above it but failed and moved down strongly afterwards to results in a winning trade 🙂

This is perfect example of Pure Price Action where the trade was based solely on structure, solely on support and resistance.

Below are two screenshots, the first one shows the M5 chart marked up anticipating the trade before the 7am open. Note the spread is 5 pips – top left of chart –  at 7am the spread drops to 1.5 pips then 1.0 pips at 8am.

The second one is of the M30 chart where the top of the KeyZone at 12396 shows why this was a must take trade due to its previous importance from last week.

Trade setup below…

Why the trade was a must take shown below…

Wed 18th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:17

M1 Sell FIBCON Loser, -1.00R

I took a sell trade back down into the range after price failed to break above the Open and KeyZone. It ticked enough of the boxes for me and I’ve seen these setups work out and would have looked to get more than 2R if correct.

The market is challenging right and even though we only trade purely technical setups  the geo-political environment is being driven by events in the gulf that can affect traders decisions to commit, this can result in range bound markets.

I passed on the M5 buy MAB – point B – due to price possibly coming back down into the range. On this occasion it would have worked out!

The key thing is to be consistent and follow our trading plan and control risk!

Below is the M5 chart showing the range.

Tue 17th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:41

Today’s Video

 

08:56

M1 Buy MAB Loser, -1.01R

After price found support at the BOR (see M15 chart below) it moved up strongly to the top of a KeyZone marked up on M15 chart. As it was not the TOR I entered a buy trade on the pullback anticipating that price would then move on up to the TOR at the Open plus the 12409 level.

The trade lasted 18:30 minutes and tested my stop a few times before moving up but then failed to go any higher and came back down to take me out. Ranges are tough to trade but I liked this setup and have seen similar ones work out but not this one.

Chosing the best point A was between two points but either one would still have resulted in a loser.

Below is the M15 chart showing the range and KeyZones  in play.