Daily DAX

Fri 9th Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:23

Today’s Results, +1.65R

A good day!!

13:56

Sell@RESCON Breakeven, -0.06R

I sold@RESCON and on this occasion feel I got the trade management just right 🙂

When price broke back below Yes Low and the H1 Channels I trailed my stop to just above the 61.8 of the Inner-FIBCON.

This resulted in another breakeven trade that proved to be a good call otherwise it would have been -1R.

 

10:36

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Breakeven, -0.01R

I liked this buy setup, it had good structure and context after the bull move up. I trailed my stop once price had begun to move up, partly because I wasn’t sure if price wanted to test the M5 MAB.

Yet another wish I’d walked away, I used a Buy Limit to enter the trade.

The 2R would have come in so pleased with the price action read, would take it again 🙂

As I type price has come storming down…..

08:49

GZ M5 Sell MAB winner, +2.20R

At last!!!

A great GZ M5 MAB Sell winner 🙂

With point A taken from just below the H1 Bull Channel at 11468.4 the 61.8 was at 11468.8, the M5 EQZ.

I used the Trade Tool and got a great entry and profit target, I was tempted to for for more profit but decided the D1 Bull Channel might hold. Of course it hasn’t and I’d have had multiple R instead!!

Oh the power we have to influence the market 🙂

 

08:09

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -0.48R

I took the M1 Micro-MAB at 07:36, happy with the setup and context. I trailed my stop once price had tested the 11468.8 level, on this occasion it proved a good call as I’d have had a -1R otherwise.

Structurally and contextually it was decent, after sell bear spike down at 7am it was with the short-term order flow.

I’ve just missed the M15 MAB at 08:11 when price moved up to Yes Low.

Wed 7th November

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09:51

GZ M5 Buy MAB +0.76

Yeah, I panicked and took profit. On my defense, it seems like the Hourly Bull channel and the mid-bear channel are solid, so I didn’t want to turn a +1.4R trade at it highest to a loser.

Price is still below the price I closed the trade so I guess I took a good decision.

08:29

M1 Buy MAB and H&S forming +0.95R

Mr. Phi always said that the first M1 MAB after a big bull spike is usually good opportunity to buy, and this time it came with the 11580.4 level acting as support and (before the trade) a dream of a Head & Shoulders forming, being “LS” left shoulder, “H” head and “RS” right shoulder. 

I knew I wasn’t looking for a 2R trade so I took profit near 1R. Also, my entry ended up not being as planned because price moved fast when I hit Ctrl+E to open the trade, pushing my entry level further up and my 2R way up than I originally planned. For those reasons I was happy to take profit near the 1R region and set a SellStop in case the H&S was in play. 

Unfortunately, the M1 moving average drove price up and it still does! 

PW High next stop?

08:02

GZ M15 Sell MAB – Breakeven

As soon as London opened price went up aggressively. Even though I took the screenshot withouth the FibTool marking the GZ, the M15 Moving Average was right on the 61.8 level, confluent with the Bear Hourly Channel which made it even more interesting.

Conscious of the first 15 minutes after the London open volatility, I kept my stop loss tight in case price decided to go up. It did and I had a breakeven trade, quite happy with the outcome.

Wed 7th Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:21

Today’s Results, +1.81R

Just the one trade today….

13:10

GZ M1 MAB Sell Setup

I’ve just returned home to see a great GZ M1 Sell MAB that’s recently formed after price decisively broke below the 11600 level.

A must take had I been trading…..

09:56

Sell@RESCON winner, +1.81R

After the strong move up I entered a sell trade at an area of RESCON at 11630ish…

I closed out due to the M5 Buy MAB for +1.81R, nice to have a winner after a losing start to November 🙂

I have to go out for a few hours so decided not the take the M5 Buy MAB which is currently looking good if you’d taken it.

Tue 6th November

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10:25

Failed M1 MAB + Buy @ SUPCON = Breakeven

The market never ceases to amaze me. 

First, the failed M1 MAB. I liked the Bear Mid channel as a retracement level but it lasted seconds only. I would take this one again as I think that structurally was good.

Second, the buy @SUPCON. When I saw how price went down to give me my first loser, I loved it. I saw the chance to catch a bottom that was going to have that bear spike as one of the last attempts to go down before looking back up. So I bought at the Hourly Bull channel boundary and really liked what I did. I set my lock in profit levels and went away. 

When I came back, price started to come down. I had my stop loss at the 1R level and I was about to move it to breakeven to give price more room! I am glad I left it there, otherwise I would have zero profit. It looks like the market needed to take price back to the Hourly channel before starting its way up! Let’s see where it takes it now! 

 

09:02

Buy above RESCON +1.07R

Observing the charts I notice that there was some pressure being built to breake the 11484.4 level so I proposed myself to steal form the market as much as possible from this move, normally until it hits the first new resistance on the way up. Timing is everything in this trade, they are normally short trades (mine was 26secs) that offer 1R or 2R depending or your stop loss level. 

Tue 6th Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:43

Today’s Results, -3.31R

The choice to take the first entry on the third trade meant the difference between being -3R down and breakeven!!

A poor start to November so far, the key thing is consistency, patience and marking up the A-B-C patterns in real-time.

15:48

Lessons and Rules…

Regarding the sell loser due to FOMO…

I’m reminded of how when there are two valid options to enter a trade it’s maybe best to:

Always take the second better value option!!

This means having the discipline to ignore the first option and accept it if it goes on to win without you. Once again, a limit order can help in this situation.

  1. Reason it out.
  2. Setup limit order (trap).
  3. Go do something else to avoid FOMO if price stalls on way to trade entry.

I’ve just updated the Trading Plan with this point.

 

15:34

I should have taken the GZ M5 MAB??

I should have taken the GZ M5 MAB@11484.4 that followed the last loser, it was a decent setup yet I passed, why?

I allowed three losers to affect my taking a good setup.

15:07

GZ Sell FIBCON loser, -1.07R

I identified two sell entries, one at 11516.8, the other at 11504.7 = 61.8 of Golden High-Low zone.

The Trade Tool is positioned where I planned to enter at 11516.8, however, my second option drew me in when price stalled and FOMO kicked in.

I entered and look what happened!!

As I type price is selling off further 🙁

The M15 and H1 charts BOTH highlighted option one as the best value, why did I get drawn in??

It was FOMO of course and another reason to consider a Limit Order and walk away or at least minimize the charts and do something else once you identified the setup and entry criteria.

That’s three straight losers today.

10:45

Two quick losers, -1.29R, -0.95R

I’ve taken two losers in quick succession 🙁

The first was a Sell Limit M5 MAB just above Yes low. It spiked through it for -1.29R. I liked the setup, I used the limit order as I planned to leave my desk.

It was close to being a winner, more fine margins….

I then took the GZ M1 Buy MAB on the retrace to Yes Low and the M5 EQZ@11468 and the H1 Bear Mid-Channel, structurally decent but did not work out.

A challenging ranging market…..

Mon 5th November

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09:27

Playing the range +0.22R

Some days ago I posted a trade idea that saw several times playing really well. 

Today I saw it again, I entered a bit earlier than I should have (best value was at the 11516.8 level), and even though I closed it mannually just before it went up (classic!) I am happy for having read the pattern! 

Price was clearly ranging and the range expanded after the London open, probably due to higher volume. However, when price went down it broke that range getting rid of the bears and leaving the way for bulls to take over. 

My doubt was the possible GZ FIBCON with the M5 moving average offering resistance to the upside. Because of FOMO, I entered it earlier, as price went for the M5 moving average, got back to the 11516.8 level and started its way up. That was my first mistake.

Second mistake: didn’t walk out of the room. I had take profit levels on, moved my target profit above Yes Close to make the most of the trade (by now I would have close with +2.5R) but I stayed watching for 8 minutes how price was forming red candles in the 1M chart. Obviously I saw danger and wanted to keep my profit secured for the day so I closed the trade myself just to see 2 minutes after that how price went up fast towards my 2R and Yes Close levels.

09:03

M1 Sell MAB +1.91R

After two breakeven trades where I tried to find a FIBCON working out with no success, I loved the way price approached to the M1 moving average.

As I didn’t know if price would form a FIBCON or a MAB, I entered the trade at the 61.8 level of my FIbtool and hoped for the best. At 1.90R, price stopped and stayed at that level for 4 or 5 seconds, which conviced me of taking profits before the salmon jumps back to the water. 

Mon 5th Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:25

Choppy morning so far…

A choppy rangy morning so far so I’m going go crack on with my garage project, if things go well I should finish it today.

Fri 2nd November

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10:38

FOMO Sell +0.08R

Not proud of my second trade either.

I was just lucky and exited it. Price might even go down from here but that only means that I entered way earlier than I should have.

In another day like this, I could easily be -4R so I’d better stop trading and come back later or on Monday to avoid damaging my monthly results. 

10:03

M5 Sell MAB -1.00R

It was 3 minutes passed 10AM and the syndrome of not having taken any trades kicked in. That’s probably the best explanation of this trade. Yes, I had marked a trendline and there was a possible resistance at the M5 moving average but that was it. Price was coming off the Hourly Bear channel that couldn’t brake so it was pretty obvious that it was going to go further up before re-testing the channel. 

Even though the threath of breaking the bear channel was there, a buy trade at the channel had higher probability of success than mine. 

  

Fri 2nd Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:43

Today’s Results, -2.17R

Three trades, the last one was the best setup but I didn’t let it play out, that would have given me a breakeven day.

09:46

Some end of week thoughts….

Some end of week, start of month thoughts.

How different a trading day can be. If I’d been able to take the 6:40 M5 MAB I’d intended to go for multiple R due to the overnight bullish context. I like to think there would have been a possible 5R trade.

I then missed the GZ M5 MAB at 8:06. I was sat with the Trade Tool but failed to execute, hence the option to use Limit orders at times is something I’m considering as it forces precision PLUS it can remove some emotion once setup, maybe even walk away so you don’t get tempted to over think things etc.

I was in buy mode and took the next GZ M5 MAB at 11627.5ish at 8:39, then had doubts due to the context (coming down from RESCON) so closed out for -0.45R only to get drawn back in and take another loser – with a gap – for -1.17R.

I then took the GZ Buy FIBCON@11600 plus the H1 Bear Channel that I’d marked up before taking the two losers. It was a much better value setup but I then had doubts, told myself I was over-trading and closed out for -0.55R.

I’m very quickly down -2.17R from three trades when in a parallel universe I’m up 7R 🙂

I’m stopping for the day as it’s NFP later and markets are often tough due to lack of commitment by traders as they wait for the Adrenaline rush of the announcement. The sun is out but too cold for a ride (for me anyway) so we’re going to enjoy a walk later as we’re busy over the weekend and the weathers not so good.

After the period of drawdown from the 11th-18th October I recovered to end October up 6.19%, that’s three consecutive profitable months so it’s all going on the right direction. I also feel SO close to a 5R-10R day, on days like today it’s vital to limit losses so time to stop and enjoy the sunshine 🙂

I’m experiencing a period where I have to work on my mindset, something all traders go through on the journey to success. This last week I failed to maximize the profit potential on several trades, I must let trades play out AND trust Grid structure. I was doing a good job of this but these last two weeks I’ve managed good setups poorly.

So even though I’m happy with the progress I know I’m SO close to crossing a threshold where 10-20% a month is possible!!

Over the weekend I will watch Adam Khoo’s video on what 7 reasons why traders struggle to be profitable. I’ve seen it before but it’s time to watch it again.

 

 

and also this video of the habits of successful traders.

We must remember trading is predominantly a mind-game so we must progam ourselves accordingly.

 

 

08:55

GZ M5 Buy MAB loser x2, -0.45R, -1.17R

I’m not in the right mindset it seems!!!

I took the next GZ M5 Buy MAB at 11627.5, did not work out, ended up taking two trades, two losers.

I’d previously marked up the lower GZ FIBCON@11600 and the H1 Bear Channel. I took it then had a moment of doubt, closed out  for -0.55R only to see it move up!!

I feel sure that if I’d not had the first two losers I’d have been more patient with the third. It was much better value and I’d anticipated it before taking the first two trades.

Three quick trades, all losers, time to stop me thinks!!

Below is the third Buy trade at 11600

08:30

Another GZ M5 Buy MAB Setup – Missed 🙁

I had this marked up but just missed it using the Trade Tool then wasn’t sure on the second opportunity.

It was a buy trade with the bull trend so it was the right side of the market to be on. I had the Upper boundary of the M1 Micro-Channel marked up but wasn’t sure about the lower one at the time of the M5 MAB. I’ve now placed it accordingly.

Following on from yesterday I’m thinking that a Buy Limit order would have been a better option for the following reasons:

  • My precise trade entry levels would have to be reasoned out.
  • No need to time the Trade Tool when price can move quickly.
  • You can leave your desk if you need to. It’s like a fisherman sets up his net and comes back later to see what the tide brought in 🙂

It’s something I plan to develop….

 

06:51

GZ M5 Buy MAB Setup

Price moved up strongly at 4:45am, maybe some positive news came out that boosted stocks??

I marked up a great GZ M5 MAB but the spread was too high at 6:40am 🙁

What  a shame!!

Thu 1st November

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09:36

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON, or M5? +0.50R

A reflection of where my mind is just happened: I was playing around with the FibToll looking for possible FIBCONs and MABs in the 5min chart (right) but at the same time I was following on the M1 chart what it could be a good retracement off the Hourly Bull Mid-channel and Yes High. Probably the last thing I did was adjusting something on the M5 chart when I saw price on the M1 chart reacting to the mid-channel and finding support on Yes High so I went for a trade!! 

However, the trade was executed not on the chart I was looking at, but at the M5 chart, the one I was probably working on with my mouse clicking on it!!

So I ended up taking a great setup with the wrong stop loss as you can see where my trade tool was in the M5 chart, placing my 2R way up. 

Although it wasn’t the trade I wanted, I liked the movement so I let it run till a reasonable level where I took half an R in profit.

It went considerably well, but my head is somewhere else so I’ll call it a day and close my charts.

Have a good day!