Daily DAX

Thu 1st Nov

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:16

Today’s Results, -1.35R

I traded the afternoon session, a buy trade followed by six sell trades. Once again I failed to realize 2R winners due to not letting them play out and trailing my stop too close.

One loser was Sell Limit that was not supposed trigger but did due to a fast spike up off the D1 Bull Channel.

Another range day that made it tough to trade FIBCONs, the best trades were selling at the top and buying at the bottom.

The main lesson from today is there’s a time to use/consider limit orders as explained in the blog.

16:22

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON winner, +0.79R

I’ve done it again!!!!

Trailed  my stop once price had reached the 1R level plus the Golden Zone of the Inner-FIBCON. On this occasion it was just too close, above the M5 EQZ@11468.8, the Inner-Inner-FIBCON was where price turned around – right at my stop.

I marked this up at point B and used a Sell Limit order, it was Freaking Perfect!!!

It even triggered whilst I left my desk for a few minutes – Perfect. Wished I’d not come back to see it and trail my stop, another 2 minutes and the 2R would have come in.

I will sort this, it a good problem to have because you have to be in a good trades to experience this.

Also, the Sell Limit played out perfectly and it’s whetted my appetite for them. As I mentioned earlier, marking up a Limit Order should force a really detailed study of the setup and if done well means you can place it then let it play out without having to watch the screen intensely and have to time the Trade Tool which at times can be a challenge.

There’s a time to use the Trade Tool and a time to use Limit Orders…

Despite not getting 2R from the last trade it was a great example of the Sell Limit.

15:09

Six Sell trades, 2 winners, 4 losers

Wow, after not trading this morning I sat down for the afternoon session.

I’ve taken six sell trades in quick succession, not good practice but here’s the headlines.

After the earlier buy trade where I mentioned about using limit orders I found myself setting one up and it got triggered accidently.

I did set it up, testing how fast I could move and place it but the spike up off the D1 Bull Channel plus the Open was so fast I didn’t have time to cancel it.

That was the -0.94R loser.

I then sold when price reached Yes High, it was a great setup, I got a great entry BUT once again I did not let it play out and only got +0.42R from it.

There’s a real pattern at present where I’m:

  • Not letting trades play out.
  • Not trusted Grid structure.

This MUST be sorted!!!

I then setup another sell limit for the M5 MAB but did not cover the M5 EQZ@11484.4, got just tapped out before it went on for a 2R winner.

I ended up taking two more sell trades that were not totally rubbish but I should have walked away at that point.

13:35

H1 Buy MAB winner, +0.48R

I was The Bear on this H1 Buy MAB setup at the 61.8 level of the Golden Low-High zone but got a poor entry so my target was above not only the Inner FIBCON’s Golden Zone it was above Yes High.

Once again I did not let things playout, as Adam Khoo points out, that can skew the traders equation big time!!

See below on the M15 chart the KeyZone just below the Golden Low-High zone. I’d marked this up as the best value entry but price spiked such that manually entering using the Trade Tool meant price had moved by the time it was executed.

It’s important to mark up only the obvious KeyZones, it’s easy to over do it

Note how price formed a Micro-Double Bottom perfectly on the top of the lower KeyZone!!

I’ve been starting consider the use of limit orders to get more precise entries and on this occasion it would have been the best option. The 2R target would have been much lower and as I type would have come in by now.

Using limit orders does have the benefit of forcing you to anticipate the setup and mark it up very precisely.

They also mean you can blink and not miss a setup which can happen often on the DAX 🙂

09:33

Another GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

I’ve had a few admin things to sort through so have not traded so far today.

I’ve just noticed the GZ M1 Buy FIBCON at Yes High and have marked up the Inner FIBCON and once again guess what?

Price reached it’s Golden Zone@11516.8 and then reversed back down to Yes High. The bulls quickly drove it back up but the key thing to note is:

The Trade Tool allows us to get a very precise entry such that we want the 2R to be at the 50% level of the Inner FIBCON or better.

 

08:34

Missed GZ M1 Buy MAB

I missed the best setup so far today at 08:15…..

The retrace to the H1 Bear Channel and the 61.8 level produced a really good M1 MAB

Wed 31st October

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10:01

GZ M1 Sell MAB -0.04R

Even though price was coming off the Daily Channel acting as support, I wanted to give this setup a try. The M1 Moving Average was pip perfect confluent with the 61.8 level of my FibTool, and there was the M15 moving average and the 11423.7 level offering good retracement options.

I suffered the whole trade. It didn’t happen as expected. However, thanks to Mr. Phi’s (Blackbox) great idea of incorporating the Lock-In profit tool (my favourite to manage trades), I managed to get out of the trade at breakeven once price couldn’t stay below the Daily Bull Channel boundary.

09:14

GZ M15 Buy MAB +0.89R

As I said in my previous trade, I had marked both this and the other one. The normal behaviour should have been to wait patiently for this setup but now, conditioned by my previous loser, I entered a good setup in a bad place so I couldn’t make the most of it.

A perfect entry was that of themabtrader shared by him here, well done to him! 

In my case, as I wasn’t happy with my entry level, once price tested the 11452.85 level I locked profit at 1R to make sure I recover my previous loss, skewing the trader’s equation 🙁

The trade would still be ongoing and reaching +1.9R as I type.

Anyway, I’d take this trade again, probably at a better level.  

09:05

GZ M5 Buy FIBCON -1.11R

I marked both this and the GZ M15 MAB I ended up taking. When I saw price touching the 11452.8 level and going slightly up, I entered a low value trade, fueled by pure FOMO.

I wouldn’t take it again.

08:02

M15 Buy MAB +0.03R

Early trade after the London open. I liked the possibility of a rebound in an area that acted as resistance before the 7am open, supported by the M15 moving average. 

However, the area didn’t hold so I looked for an exit at breakeven. Minutes after that price went towards the Open level, area where it seems to have found support to go back up.

Wed 31st Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:34

Today’s Results, -1.23R

Just the one early trade today.

08:43

GZ M1+M5 Buy MAB Setup

I talked myself out of this buy MAB setup, I used the recent Lower-Low as point A, it gave the 61.8 level at 11416 on the D1 Bull Channel.

I was definately affected by my early loser at the same structure!!

When point A is taken from the D1 Bull Channel then look where the Golden Zone falls!!

I’m not tuned in it seems and I have to go out for a few hours at 9:30, it might be for the rest of the day.

 

08:21

GZ M1 Micro-FIBCON Sell Setup

I had to leave my desk just after the 8am open, I’ve just come back to see the GZ M1 FIBCON marked up above.

It takes skill to trade these and you need the Trade Tool but I want to draw attention to point A at 11428.5 that was produced by the spike up off the 11415 level.

Note how perfect the 61.8 level is at point C at 11415.5 and it’s confluent with the D1 Bull Channel and the M5 EQZ.

07:08

GZ M1 FIBCON loser, -1.23R

I anticipated a bullish gap up followed by a retrace after observing the 7am open many times.

There were two possible buy entries, I chose the lower probability just below Yes High. Had Yes High + the M5 EQZ@11431.5 not been present I wouldn’t have taken it. 

The gap down resulted in a -1.23R loser as I didn’t move my stop.

These setups are tough to trade and should probably be left alone unless you take only the best value entry if two options are clearly present.

06:56

Weekly KeyZone

I’ve marked up a key zone on the weekly chart. It’s about a 115 pips in height and if it holds could push price higher OR if it fails watch out below OR price could orbit it for some time?? 

Tue 30th October

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08:10

GZ M15 Buy FIBCON – Breakeven

After gauging the market reaction to the M15 moving average I realised that it wasn’t the ultimate target, as the real one was the 11325.1 level, a great place to buy if you look at the Hourly Charts as it was a role reversal area for the last few days. 

I closed both trades early enough to minimise loses, but I want to focus on the opportunities that I identified beforehand and didn’t executed. I’ve been too fussy wanting price to “touch” certain levels before trading, and that is not what always happens!

Both yesterday an today I missed good areas of resistance/support looking for the perfect trade, with perfect entry levels, which doesn’t make sense. I need to work on that! 

Tue 30th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:46

Today’s Results, -0.24R

I ended up slightly down on the day after two losing MAB Buy trades due to price coming back down from the top of a range.

Structurally they were good but contextually they were low probability due to the price making its way back down a range.

The fifth trade should have been a 2R winner had I not trailed my stop so early, more fine margins.

12:27

Two MAB losers, -0.97R, -1.08R

After taking a break I came back to see the bull spike back above 11325 and the retrace in play. I took the M1 Buy MAB@11325, did not work out.

I then took the much better setup of the GZ M5 Buy MAB at 11310.1, did not work out though it was a decent setup, the better of the two.

On this occasion the Impulsive A-B Bull leg did not provide the FIBCON energy needed.

Whilst price is moving between Grid structure it has not been kind to us as can be seen by the strong move back up off the H1 Bear Channel.

 

10:35

GZ M15 Sell MAB loser, -0.50R

I was So The Bear on this setup and waited patiently for the M15 MAB at the 11325 level.

 I was happy with my entry and stop just above the 50% level of the current Golden Low-High zone. When price moved below the 11325 level I reduced my risk and protected my stop with the 11328 level.

I moved my stop too early, the 2R would have just come in 🙁

Great anticipation, great entry and stop, poor trade management.

09:21

If price reaches the 11325 level?

If price manages to reach the 11325 level there’s good role-reversal structure though as I type price is trying to push below the Open and test the current Low.

08:36

Four trades, 2 winners, 2 losers, +2.31R

What busy 30 mins after the 8am open, I’ve taken four trades as follows:

  1. I took the M5 Buy MAB though I entered early at the H1 EQZ 11388.8 level. This has been a key level as shown when looking-left on the M15 and H1 charts. I almost talked myself out of it due to the RESCON but went with the bullish 7am momentum.
  2. Took a great Buy@SUPCON@11328.1, just above the H1 MA. Should have let it fully play out for 2R.
  3. Took the M1 Sell MAB@11363.0, not great Role-Reversal structure to support it, didn’t work out.
  4. I then took the GZ M5 Sell MAB, a much better setup! On this occasion I moved my target as structure supported  it, this one worked out 🙂

The 1st and 3rd trades were weaker setups – easy afterwards of course.

Mon 29th October

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Trade Idea – Did not take it

The trade tool remains in the same place as it was before price started to going up. I was close to take it but I am still convincing myself as to whether this trades are worth or not. The thing is, I’ ve seen it sooo many times that it is hard to ignore.

When price is ranging within a defined top and bottom usually close to each other, it is normal to see how price breakes support, finds a lower low and gets back to the ranging area. When that happens, price usually is preparing to move higher. A great entry level is the bottom of the range, and it very rearly fails! 

I’ll keep marking those because I am sure we have a good edge here!

08:24

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON +0.04R

I liked this setup as after a strong move upwards it came a equally fast retracement. The H4 moving average was in between the M1 and M5 moving averages so I waited to see if the 61.8 level of my Fibtool held and went for it. 

However, price soon broke that level, almost stopped me out and started going up and down quite fast. Those are signs of short term volatility, and I prefer to be out of it as it usually does not respect supports. As soon as I could I exited the trade at breakeven, a good decision!  

08:16

GZ M15 Buy MAB +2.93

Great way to start the week! 

When I saw price going down quickly without having hit any strong resistance, I started looking for the best MAB available. The M15 moving average was above the open so I went for it! 

Quick bounce, fast profit, maximised locking in profit along the way. 

Mon 29th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:12

Today’s Results, +0.16R

Just the one breakeven trade today, early finish.

11:36

Done for the day..

I’ve got to go work on a garage project that I started on Saturday, the sun is out and I need to open the doors etc.

Pleased I’ve not chased price after passing on two Buy FIBCONs and after missing the M15 Buy MAB@08:16

Have fun trading…..

10:26

Sell@RESCON, +0.16R

The D1 EQZ@11397.9 was a possible target as pointed out by Joel earlier.

I tried not to over think this one and entered as shown but also felt price might push a bit higher.

It started well but the M1 MAB was my reference point and if price moved back above the M5 EQZ@11388.8 I wanted out so trailed my stop to just above this level.

So was stopped out for breakeven and I’ll have to accept if it reverses and goes on to my 2R target.

Price has just reached my stop so it would have been a 1R loser.

There were two decent Buy Micro-FIBCONs on the move up to 11397.9 but no M1 MA in play due to the speed.

07:33

GZ M1 Buy Micro-MAB

Was waiting for price to retrace to the 11228.3 level for the M1 MAB.

After a gap down at 7am price moved up strongly setting up a short-term buy.

A good setup, good Role-Reversal structure, my 2R was just below the Open if I’d had a good entry.

Next time……..

Fri 26th October

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08:53

GZ High-Low Sell FIBCON + M15 MAB +1.73R

Yes!!! What a beautiful High-Low Daily FIBCON! 

The only reason why it wasn’t a 2R trade was because it touched my 2R and didn’t close the trade and, as I saw that movie before (the one where after touching your 2R a retracement is in place that leaves you almost empty handed), I was more than happy to close it manually (after a couple of loud bad words against the forces of the market, of course!).

 

Fri 26th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:13

GZ M5 Sell MAB winner, +1.39R

Another decent GZ M5 Sell MAB which resulted in me closing out for +1.39R due to the SUPCON just below my 2R target.

Of course, once again, SO close and all that as the 2R did come in 10 minutes after I closed out 🙂

There’s a pattern today, I’ve taken great sell trades, just not maxed them out. 

However, what a great rebound this week after the drawdown of early last week. Getting back to A-B-C is the secret, it always was at the very heart and core of the Trade Controller Environment!!

09:02

GZ M5 Sell MAB loser  & winner, -0.54, +1.03R

Another great M5 sell MAB setup anticipated but poorly executed. After price had moved back up off the D1 EQZ@11104.0 I was aware that it could be a strong bull move back up into the D1 EQZ.

I therefore wanted to see at least an entry at the M5 MAB as there was good RESCON. 

I was close once again to another 2R but on this occasion the best entry was 61.8 level of the Golden High-Low zone, my stop on the first trade was at that level. 

Very happy with my anticipation and patience, it was a great sell, must get the 2R next time 🙂

08:16

GZ M1 Sell MAB winner, +0.65R

The bearish 8am open setup a great GZ M1 Sell MAB and I got a great entry.

But I closed out when price struggled at the 50% level of the Golden Low-High zone. What shame to have not got the 2R , what a shame not to have ridden this one down…

Instead of trusting structure I allowed myself to think the bulls would step back in…

07:26

GZ M1 Buy Micro-MAB

There was a large gap down at the 7am open then price moved up strongly to the H1 Bull Channel just below the Open.

I want to draw attention to the GZ M1 Buy Micro-MAB that formed when price broke above the Open to produce a Higher-High. I looked for decent point A based on price establishing a reference point, this produced a Golden Zone as shown at the H1 Bull Channel. When you look-left the zone had great Role-Reversal structure.

This type of setup might be a Micro-MAB but structurally it’s very good and contextually it’s a buy due to the early bullish spike back up after the gap down.

It’s structure forms within the Grid structure…….

The Trade Tool allows us to consider taking such setups, it is my intention to mark these up as part of the A-B-C routine, the more we see them form and play out with a greater than 50% probability that price will short-term offer a a 2R trade the more we can profit from them.

Thu 25th October

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10:56

Frustration Sell +1.11R

After trades like the last one, where you basically turn a winner into a loser, it normally comes another 1R lost (or more) via frustration and anger. This time it was a winner, but I am not proud of this one.

10:44

Sell @ RESCON + bad managemet 

A week ago I told Mr. Phi something like “why moving the stop loss to loose -0.75R? Give price room and let it take the full 1R!”

Well, I either have (Finding Nemo’s) Dori’s short term memory problems while I trade or I did something really silly. I moved my stop loss to reduce risk (from 1R to 0.65R, what a risk reduction!) and the market did a high five with my stop loss and went down to my 2R target profit.

I think I will remember this one for a while.

08:36

H1 Sell MAB -1.00R

Could have anticipated that price would keep going up given the strenght of the rally.

However, bulls and bears battled for more than 20mins in that area so it wasn’t a level to ignore. I had my chance to close the trade at breakeven but wanted to let it develop given that my stop loss managed to hold price for more than 8 minutes.