Daily DAX

Thu 25th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:29

Today’s Results, +3.47R

If I’d have left all three trades alone once I’d entered then today would have been a +6R day!

Like yesterday, I would take them all again. It’s easy to say that when they go well but losing trades are ok and normal so long as you know you followed the process of anticipation and patiently waited to enter at a predefined level.

 

17:59

Another Outer-Inner FIBCON Example

Following the M5 Buy MAB winner another one formed as shown. I wish I’d been at my desk to see this, it was a good setup, the third GZ M5 Buy MAB on the trot.

However, note the Inner FIBCON’s Golden Zone between 11302.2 – 11308.0, it’s where price reached from the M5 MAB before stalling. This is why I closed out two of my recent trades looking to see if I can use Grid structure like this to profitable effect 🙂

Therefore, the ideal 2R setup is where the target is around the 50% level of the Inner FIBCON or better. Reasoning like this A-B-C setup after A-B-C setup will lead to Mastery!!

 

16:28

GZ M5 Buy MAB Winner, +1.99R

I Really Enjoyed this one……..

After anticipating it, updating the blog I was The Bear…..

It started well then came the slight sweats as price got within 1.4 pips of my stop. I did not move my stop, even below the D1 Bear Mid-Channel.

Fine margins that didn’t go against me this time 🙂

I trusted the setup, I loved the structure and when I hit Ctrl-E I had that all important feeling of “Win or lose, I’d take this again!”

I did mark up the Inner-FIBCONs Golden Zone between 11280.3 – 11288.5 but this time price was kind to me and pushed on up to my target.

Had I been at my desk I would have taken the earlier M5 MAB at point A (11219.9), to have got both of these at 2R would be a well spent afternoon.

 

15:55

GZ M5 MAB Maybe????

If price retraces down to 11261 then maybe it’s an M5 MAB????

There was a good M5 Buy MAB at point A (11219) , was not at my desk 🙁

12:08

Two trades – Outer-Inner FIBCON Structure

I totally anticipated the sell@RESCON but ended up over-thinking it and closed out a great entry as I’d ideally been wanting price to move a little higher.

I looked the M15 and H1 charts and reasoned that price might push up to the 11280.0 level, I setup the Trade Tool. Then when price stalled I entered only to tell myself it was FOMO so closed out for breakeven and wait for the ‘better entry’ 🙁

It never came of course so messed that up trying to call the ‘perfect’ entry!!!

I then marked up what might have been an M5 MAB if price had sold off quickly enough at the 11219.9 M5 EQZ level. Eventually price came down so I entered the buy trade at the 61.8 level, structurally I liked it.

I closed out for +1.37R due to the Inner FIBCON’s Golden Zone between 11241.4 – 11247.6, of course price did eventually break threw and I’d have had the +2R but as I mentioned recently, when marking up the A-B-C patterns in real-time you start to see more and more the Outer-Inner FIBCON structure.

Marking up and mastering the Outer-Inner FIBCON structure in real-time I believe is key to our future success!!

In the MABs and FIBCONs examples section you’ll find this structure on a few of the screenshots, it’s time to go deeper into it….

FIBCONs are the building blocks of price action as price makes its way or and down. By marking them up in advance such that it becomes hard-wired into our routine we will start to set more accurate profit targets based on the Golden Zone of the Inner-FIBCON.

I was pretty sluggish early this morning due to a late night so decided to watch instead. There were two good GZ M1 Buy MABs I was tempted with once price made the Higher-High at the Open before a brief retrace – 1st M1 MAB – before moving up.

Both M1 MABs are shown below, note the Grid levels in use on the micro-retraces, 11114.1 and 11167.0

Also note how useful the short-term Micro-Channels can be once they give you enough points to mark them up.

08:51

Possible RESCON@11260ish ???

There’s a zone of RESCON at 11260 plus if point A is taken from the H1 EQZ@11388.8 the 61.8 level is at 11260ish so something to watch if price reaches it.

The Golden Zone has good Role-Reversal structure…….

Wed 24th October

by

12:30

High-Low GZ H1 Sell MAB

I really liked the High-Low Golden Zone with the 1 Hour moving average around. It didn’t hold price.

30 minutes later, price started to sell off and went all the way down. Unlucky.

09:38

M5 Sell MAB -0.05R 

Hang on, don’t you see a great winner there? Me too.

I entered and exited the trade for the same reason, that was the only problem. I entered the trade for FOMO (don’t want to miss a successfull MAB!) even though I wasn’t 100% convinced of the setup, but entering with fear made me look at how price was trying to push up again and again! As soon as I had a chance to exit, I closed the trade, only to see seconds after how price did what it had to do.

09:15

From Double Bottom to Double Top

Price action does amazing things! 

Yesterday afternoon after Wall Street opened I was looking for buy opportunities around the 11251 level as I believed a rebound was in place. I didn’t find any that gave me some good risk reard so I decided to close the charts and stop trading. 

This morning I found that not only was a rebound in place, it formed a great double bottom that could have offered 2R very fast!

On the other hand, today’s price action shows a double top that I don’t know where is it going to find support, but the SUPCON level at 11251.0 and the top border of the hourly equidistant zone at 11261.5 look really attractive. It will be difficult though to find a good place to buy given the weakness shown lately, where sell trades seem to be the safest bet. 

Let’s see what the market has to offer!

Wed 24th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:12

Today’s Results, +1.33R

Four trades, all good setups, should have gotten more out of them.

12:12

Done for the day…

I’m off to enjoy a walk down to the Quayside despite there being pretty strong winds. I’m up +1.33R off four trades, I’m happy as I followed my process on all of them and would take them all again, just get more out of them. Next time it could be 4R+ such are the fine margins.

Since I closed out price has been in a micro-range with the bottom being the Golden Zone of the A-B-C Buy FIBCON/MAB structure. It’s a great zone, look-left, that’s why I closed out.

More on the power of marking up the Outer-Inner FIBCON structures later 🙂

11:13

GZ M15 Sell MAB winner, +1.18R

I got a good entry but was probably a bit generous with my stop as it meant the 2R was lower than I wanted. I ended up closing out for +1.18R due to the buy A-B-C at 11300 and the M5 MAB.

Over the last few days of intense A-B-C marking up I’ve been reminded of the Outer-Inner FIBCON structure that often explains why price ebbs and flows as it does.

Get in the habit of looking for them and watching closely what happens to price when it reaches them. 

The M15 MAB 2R might still come in but on this occasion I decided to close out and watch….

 

10:26

GZ M15 Sell MAB@11325????

Decent looking M15 Sell MAB at 11325 maybe???

Forgot to comment on the -0.46R loser, it was an M5 MAB that I liked enough to take.

I closed out when price struggled to move back down and thought maybe the M15 MAB is what’s really going on.

Glad I closed out this time as it would have been a 1R loser 🙂

09:23

GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB

I missed this one in real-time and selling into SUPCON requires a perfect entry where the 2R needs to be not lower than point B – the Low –  but the Trade Tool makes it possible.

The projected M1 Micro-Channel added to the confluence at point C. These setups I’m marking up as part of the routine to focus me and wire in the habits and mindset.

Taking them is another thing…..

Note: I draw the Micro-Channels as and when they make sense and look good. When drawn accurately they can add to the setup.

09:00

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON winner, +1.55R

This was better, I sold when price reached the 61.8 level@11325.7 as a Golden Zone often plays it part more than once, especially when a range forms and it’s functioning as the top of the range.

A better entry would have netted the full 2R and had I not closed out for +1.55R then the 2R would have come in anyway.

I’m pleased with both sell setups as they were each capable of 2R, must manage better!!

08:34

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -0.94R

This was a decent 2R sell setup but I was NOT The Bear 🙁

My poor entry meant my stop was at the 61.8 level, where I should have entered!!

FOMO meant I chased price and missed out.

Tue 23rd October

by

10:31

Buy @ SUPCON trades +1.09R

I love this saying and it applies perfectly to what happened: “Once bitten, twice shy”.

I had 2R on my first trade, wanted it more = tiny loser that felt like a 2R loser.

I traded again, once price seemed to change its trend for the short term = +1.11R (as I type, price reached what it was my 3R level).

This is not the first time I type this, but I will wok for it to be the last one: Take 2R if the market generously gave it to you. Just take it and wait for another entry. Take it!

After leaving 2R on the table, I had to make sure I walk away with some profit for the day, otherwise the phsycological implications of losing again would be huge.  

Correction: a minute after I typed that price was on my 3 level, no it is on what it was 4R. Now passed it. Ok, bye.

PS: Take profit. 

11:16

Buy @ SUPCON – Ongoing trade

Am I being too greedy? 

It has potential to be a partial bottom, but it failed to go towards the Hourly Bull Channel.

I set to lock in profit in a level that didn’t reach for some pips and now is threatening to hit my stop loss placed at breakeven level.

08:34

GZ M15 Sell FIBCON – Missed it!

Look at where I had my trade tool! I wanted price to go just a tiny bit higher to cover the spread otherwise it changes too much my 2R target level.

Is a FIBCON still in play or will market keep going up towards the PW Low level?

Mon 22nd October

by

08:04

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON -1.01R

Bad trade or no luck? 

Bought a little bit higher than wanted as price was moving fast. That made me have my profit targets higher than expected. Why is that relevant? I normally move my stop loss to breakeven after price reaches 1R of profit, but in this case it missed that level for a little bit and I decided not to lock profit in. 

Price went down quickly, took me off the trade, went back up, almost made my 2R level and retraced once again. 

Mon 22nd Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:46

Today’s Results, +2.76R

Just the two trades today as I had to stop trading late morning.

Happy with them both, just should have left the second alone as minutes later the 2R came in.

13:40

Perfect GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB

I’ve stopped trading but just spotted this perfect GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB at Yes High.

These take skill to trade but look closely at the Role-Reversal structure when you look-left. You could not consider these setups unless you have something like the Trade Tool BUT they are worth mastering because they are high quality and high probability. We only need to be right 40-50% of the time so long as we average 2R winners and don’t increase our risk so much we skew the traders equation.

As I’m typing this sell setup rolled into another as shown below. A-B-C followed by A-B-C…..

Maybe I should have trade for another hour or so…..

12:26

Had to take a break…..

I’ve had to stop trading due a few phone calls and have just come back to see a decent sell at the H4 KeyZone@11637.6 and the H1 Bull Channel.

Point A is at the High, point B at the H1 MAB@11580.4, the bear spike down to Yes High would have netted a nice 2R winner.

I’ve got to stop trading for the day due to other commitments and am very pleased with the morning results, +2.76R 🙂

The potential for more was there by just doing the basics, A-B-C then look at the context, follow the plan and if it looks good execute.

The recent drawdown can be partly attributed to me going for multiple R winners at RESCON or SUPCON instead of taking 2R off the table when it was there. 

10:59

GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB

I passed on this sell setup as it was so close to the H1 Bear Channel BUT structurally it was perfect and the Trade Tool does allow us to get very precise entries whilst controlling risk.

10:27

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON Winner, +0.70R

As I type the 2R would have come in but I closed out when Yes High looked like it would go through a Role-Reversal and act as support.

I sold at the H1 Bull Channel and the H4 KeyZone@11637.6, just above the 61.8@11633.8, pleased with the setup, another A-B-C sell but allowing for the RESCON above.

Shame I didn’t let it play out as it would have been 2R but very pleased with the anticipation, it pays to Be The Bear 🙂

09:50

GZ M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.06R

It’s felt ages since my last text book 2R winner but by following the plan and marking up those A-B-C patterns I took the sell at Yes High as shown.

I did not move my target even though it was a litte lower than I wanted, ideally above the H1 Bear channel, but it worked out – just 🙂

After the ‘Factory Reset’ last week I really enjoyed this one due to the process!

08:49

Mark up those A-B-C’s……

After last week it’s back to basics, ie. marking up A-B-C patterns as they form in real-time. All of this is in the plan, I’ve just not been following it !!

No trades so far but I’ve marked up the chart and where you see an arrow it shows a trade entry point that with good timing would have been a 2R winner.

The whole point of the Trade Tool and the Price Action Grid is to take very precise short-term 2R trades. 

This will result in more trades but so long as they’re high quality they should be taken as this will leverage the traders equation where 40-50% strike rate will result in a positive equity curve.

I believe that once we do this this hour after hour, day after day we will eventually reach a stage where we are in the zone, in the flow, and will roll from one trade to another, switching from buy to sell as structure guides us 🙂

Fri 19th October

by

11:20

Chased price (yet again?!) for a profit +2.93R

Remember my second trade that didn’t work? This should have been the setup for that trade. Price went down, found a bottom that acted as support, and without news or anything going on started to climb up its way towards the 11545.9 level. 

Despite the +2.93R profit that leaves me on breakeven for the day, I am not particularly proud with my trading today. It could have been much worse and does not show the way to go!

Have a good weekend.

11:15

GZ M5 Sell MAB trade + desperation trade -2.23R

I was already hit by my lack of patiente, but this M5 MAB looked really good. Had it marked in advance, and I think myself, themabtrader and urely others fell as well. Nothing to say more than I should have considered that price was coming after the 11545.9 level.

However, that doesn’t justify the second trade. I was upset by things not working out and took a desperated trade just hoping that the very aggressive movement up would find resistance there once again. 

10:34

A pair of bad trades – Bought at RESCON and then chased price

When market goes sideways I need to learn to either be more patient than ever OR to trade accordingly! 

Price was clearly trying to break the 11545.9 level, but after having re-tested the low of the day couldn’t do so. It tried once, twice, three times and went up for a fourth time. Me, instead of waiting for confirmation (literally, break that level and go higher up), bought when it was a screaming sell. Why a sell? If price attempts to break a level several times without success, more often than not it will go further in the opposite direction looking for a support level that gives price enough strength to get rid of such resistance.

I fell in the trap even being aware of the risk. That didn’t make me feel any happier after being stopped out, and instead of learning and put a sell trade at the 5M moving average, I observed how price went down to make a new low for the session. Frustrated, entered a veeery low value trade that fortunately closed manually as soon as I realised where the trade came from. 

08:51

M1 Sell FIBCON +0.09R

After price reached a new lower low in the context of the chart, I saw a nice opporunity for a Role Reversal around the 11580 area, marked also with the FibTool at the 61.8 level of retracement. 

As soon as I etered the trade, price broke the level I was expecing to act as support and went towards the 1 minute moving average. As this was not the intended trade and my entry level and stop loss were not appropiate for a possible MAB, I decided to exit the trade. It was either that or move the stop loss, something that I am trying not to do! Unfortunately, I missed a great downtrend!

Fri 19 Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:09

Missed a great Buy trade 🙁

Can you believe it!!!

An hour or so ago I had to stop trading due to a few phone calls etc. I did watch Joel’s M5 MAB call spike up to the H4 KeyZone@11567.2, I then had another call.

I’ve just returned to see what happened, a PERFECT FIBCON with trade entry/point C @11530!!

Had I been trading I would have taken this trade, it was Freaking High Quality 🙂

Whilst I’m a wee bit gutted I’m also pleased to see what happened, well done anyone who took this.

Once again, note how the Holy Grid guides us, looking forward to next week and trading the MABs and FIBCONs as they form throughout the session.

I highly recommend marking up the A-B-C patterns as they form in real-time, it really focuses the mind and reasoning processes.

09:57

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON small winner, +0.31R

Today is all about going back to basics, reading the price action and marking A-B-C setups as they form. I’ve looked closely at my results, whats worked and whats not etc.

At the very core of our approach is the MAB & FIBCON pattern and I’ve not been following my plan which instructs me to mark them up in real-time. Yesterday I sat all day and did that, it was the best thing I could have done!

Yes I’ve had success using zones of RESCON/SUPCON, Yes I ‘ve had success some with multiple R winners

BUT

I’ve also been going for the big winners, being greedy  and not closing out 2R winner after 2R winner which grows the bank. 

I’ve not been The Bear and due to poor entries have moved my stop only to lose more times than is acceptable. All this shrinks the bank and drains the emotions 🙁

The Trade Controller environment is specifically designed to trade MABs and FIBCON intraday using the Price Action Grid. Yesterday I was reminded of how precisely price interacts with the Grid and I’ve not been taking advantage of that in my trading, it’s time to change that!

Good quality 2R setups form regularly throughout the session and I’ve been pushing for multiple R way too often. Adam Khoo has reminded me of the power of the 2R traders equation, I’ve been skewing that by moving my stop and going for big winners.

To progress on my journey I need to get back to the basics, my charts will therefore be marked up like they used to be, A-B-C followed by A-B-C looking for quality setups, looking for phi 🙂

Back to today….

After marking up A-B-C patterns I was SO close to selling the retrace back up to 11567.2 at 09:14, an awesome GZ M1 MAB!!

I was late selling the retrace up the Open, the 61.8 level was confluent with the H1 EQZ Mid-line@11545.9 AND H1 Bull Mid-Channel. My target was below the low but above the H4 KeyZone level at 11504.7

When it double-bottomed I closed out as its an H1 EQZ@11516.8, good setup but poor execution.

I therefore expect to take more trades going forward but that’s ok so long as they are high quality 2R setups. This also leverages the power of the 2R traders equation due to the increased trading volume, much like a casino needs people to keep playing so their edge is in play.

So despite a week of drawdown it’s been key to me evolving as a trader, it’s forced me to review my results. The good news is the areas to work on stand out SO much.

  • I’ve not been following my plan and had become complacent due to a period of profitability
  • I’ve not been taking advantage of the Grid and how its guides us through the minefield of uncertainty.

 

Thu 18th October

by

10:49

Double bottom +1.41R

I missed the M15 and H1 MAB that I had marked hours ago for fears of a Low-High FIBCON wih the Daily moving average as support.

However, I managed to identify this Double Bottom structure that gave me some valuable profit! Ideally I could have pur a tighter stop loss, but I wanted to give some room in case of a retracement. Anyway, happy with this trade, let’s see if the market offers anything else for today. 

09:00

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON -0.24R

No two days are the same! Yesterday it took ages for price to move up, and today in 30mins I missed a multiple R bull move starting at the same level I bought yesterday without any luck.

That’s probably the reason why I took this trade. FOMO kicked in and invited me over to a party that was finishing. I liked the idea of a Role Reversal at the 11772 level.0 but as soon as price broke both that and the 61.8 level marked with the Fibtool, I looked for an exit point. It was a -0.24R that was going to be worse if left alone. 

I wouldn’t take this trade again.

Thu 18th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:36

Today’s Results, -5.76R

Not a good day results wise BUT I’ve had a master-class in FIBCON’s and MAB’s after going back to basics.

I started with a great trade (see below) just after 7am then got greedy and saw +3R become -1.13R, the efffect of which meant I missed a decent buy trade to ride up the bull move just after 8am. One poor decision led to another….

This period of drawdown since last Thursday has been quite the tonic to go deeper into the Price Action and the Price Action Grid.

It captures almost all the key decision points and today I sat and just watched and called the moves. Of course the trades I took didn’t work out, those I passed on or missed did!!

I’m too tired just now to journal what I hope will be a milestone day for me, I’m thinking I might do a video  instead of blog each trade, I want to capture what I feel I’ve learned today.

In summary, the BEST MABs and FIBCONs form within Grid structure, mark up in real-time the A-B-C pattern as per the trading plan, something I’d stopped doing BUT it’s vital to utilise the Grid correctly.

More later….

Below is the great GZ M1 Sell MAB I got a perfect entry on, I then got greedy going for 5R+ and giving it all back. There is a pattern here that I’ve got to sort, this is happening all too often.