Daily DAX

Wed 17th October

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14:25

M1 Buy MAB -0.50R

Right after my last trade closed, I wanted to squeeze as much profit as possible from the bull move. What I didn’t know is that the bull move was over for a while! Gave back half an R from my profit but it was a conscious decision.

As you can see, I actually locked in profit but then thought of adding an extra layer of support by leaving my stop loss below the 11741.2 level. It didn’t work but it reduced my risk to half the original size.

That was my last trade of a long and stressful day!

14:05

M5 MAB +1.95R

The market was in bullish mode and I was resurrected by my last winner, so after seeing how the M5 MAB was in play, I entered teh trade a bit late but with some form of confirmation that price was going after the 11741.2 level that proved to be strong to break during the session.

I had moved my take profit level to the Bull channel, but also locked in profit once the trade went more than 2R on my favor, a wise deicision if you look at what happend the minute after my trade was closed.

10:30

Buy @ RESCON trades  +3.65R  -1.15R 

Messy chart, quite a lot of drama but good result at the end. It is much less complicated than it looks. None of the trades happened at the same time; I was always stopped at breakeven before entering the next trade. Let me explain this M15 chart:

– 1st trade(+0.02R) : Bought at RESCON after I saw that it held price above 11708, placing my stop loss below the 11693.8 level. I was almost stopped out but it turned out positive and reached 1R aprox at the highest point. At that moment I placed my stop loss at a breakeven level. 

-2nd trade (-0.11R) & 3rd trade (+0.04R): I thought price wasn’t going to come back down, but it is normal to see retracements before going further up. What I did in this and the next trade was improve my entry level by buying at a lower level with the same or similar stop loss, as I was confident that the market would move up. Well, I was close to get 2R but you know what? Price tested once again the 11693.8 level. By then, 3 hours went by since my first trade and I was out of all of them, angry, tired and 2R down because of the early morning trades.

-4th trade: I didn’t feel it personal at that moment, but looking at the chart now it seems like price action was joking with me. After re testing the RESCON area, it came back up in a bullish move that I wanted to be part of: as soon as price broke upwards the 11708 level I entered a trade that was risky but it went well.

There is one trade missing in this chart, it was a sell trade in the middle of the drama that ended up being a quick loser for -1.15R even though I didn’t move my stop loss. 

Conclusion: too much suffering for that reward. I could have taken 1R three times and be happy, but it is hard to know when to close trades that looked good! 

08:16

FIBCON + RESCON losers = -2R

And that is how my Wednesday started… Two losers thinking only about price going up, not expecting that bears would take over the market for a good part of the day. 

The first trade, a FIBCON with the M1 and M5 moving averages below the entry level that didn’t work out. I don’t think it was a bad trade as price didn’t show any signs of bearishness since the start of the session. In my opinion, it could have worked our perfectly.

However, the second trade was a bad trade. Even though the Daily bear channel boundary held price since Yes Close till then, it wasn’t enough to see a buy trade there. It lasted one minute and took me out for -1.05R. 

 

Wed 17th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:11

Today’s Results, -1.00R

Just the one trade today, it turned out it was hte Low of the session as price moved back up into the D1 EQZ.

A decent setup but maybe the M5 wicks were a clue???

16:12

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON loser, -1.00R

I spotted this M1 FIBCON that formed on the break of the D1 EQZ@11693.8, I marked it up and liked it.

The measured move was also supportive of a move down to the H1 Bear Channel and the D1 Bull Channel.

I was The Bear and got a good entry and stop meaning my target was also good, just below the Lower-Low.

Another one that didn’t work out, another loser 🙁

I’m looking at the M5 – see below – chart for any clues that may have made this a lower probability setup.  Maybe the wicks showed the presence of buyers preventing price moving lower??

It was a decent setup, I did NOT break my rules and I did NOT chase price OR increase my risk 🙂

There was clear space between the Lower-Low and the H1 Bear Channel, another reason why I liked it.

11:03

Missed great H4 Buy MAB at D1 EQZ, too fussy!!

Wow, I was just too fussy on the buy at the D1 EQZ@11693.8, I wanted to see price reach the 11685 level. I was just about to enter when it moved up and I did not want to chase price.

Well done if anyone took this !!

I can feel the effect of my last few days trading, last week I feel sure I’d have taken it.

Habit number 5 of wealthy traders is:

They approach trade number 5 with the same mindset they did on the 4 previous losing trades.

09:42

GZ M5 Sell MAB Maybe????

Passed on two chances to sell earlier….

I do like the look of this GZ M5 Sell MAB if price reached it…

Tue 16th October

by

14:06

Buy @ SUPCON Breakeven

What can I say? Greedy maybe? 

As I shared on my previous trade, I turned bullish after observing the market for a while.

When I saw price going below the M1 Moving Average, I thought that if it retraces quickly it might be a good buying opportunity, and it was! Price reached 1.9R, doubted for a bit (should have taken profit there) and then, as you can see to the left of where I put “GAP!”, the next candle opened below the previous’ closing price, which normally indicates that there is some bearish movement going on. 

I thought I was covered by the M1 moving average but it didn’t last long as a support level, and I am glad I moved my stop loss to breakeven, otherwise it would have stopped me out to then go back up, this time above my 2R target level. 

Take profits man!

13:14

Sell @ RESCON Breakeven

I sat on my desk and saw price breaking up the 11700 level. I couldn’t resist and sold quickly! 

However, I noticed that it was the first time since the market attempted to go above such level that the M1 moving average was on top of the 11693.8 level, price was already above the 4H moving average and the M5 moving average was close enough to offer support levels on the way up. 

Therefore, as soon as price gave some room, I adjusted my stop loss as to me, the picture this time was bullish. It soon took me off for a breakeven trade. 

Tue 16th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:34

Today’s Results, -1.80R

Should have been at least breakeven had I not been JUST stopped out on the second trade. 

The market has continued to move on up…..

18:20

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Tiny winner, +0.18R

This is more like it!!

Despite trailing my stop too close and ONLY just being taken out for little more than break-even I’m very happy with this trade, even though as I type the 2R would have come in.

I marked this up well in advance and waited patiently for the best entry, I got that but was too generous with my stop. I liked everything about it and unlike some of the trades over the last few days I had that all important feeling of:

  • I cannot talk myself out of this
  • Win or lose I’d take this again

It was with the current order-flow that favours buy trades and structurally it was a great 61.8 FIBCON at the H1 Bull Channel.

So yes, I’m a little frustrated to have just been stopped out but totally enjoyed the process of anticipation and trade entry. I recently watched a video on 20 habits of wealthy traders, number one was:

“They are enormously patient with winning trades and enormously impatient with losing trades.”

So that can mean don’t trail your stop too close, give them time to play out and breathe! I guess after a few losers it might have affected my not wanting to take another one.

Either way, despite price moving on up as I type I’m happy to end the day with my price action read and having a Green entry on the Trade Console 🙂

13:25

Sell@RESCON loser, -1.98R

After a very slow morning session price eventually reached the area of RESCON@11700, however, I was NOT The Bear and FOMO kicked in 🙁

The result was I moved my stop to protect it but it did not work out – AGAIN!!

After a good start to October I’ve dipped since last Thursday onwards, after the sell off on Wednesday I’ve struggled to follow my plan and rules, this has resulted in increasing my risk on a few trades and skewing the traders equation.

This was a good sell setup even if price continues on up and would have resulted in a loser, so long as I’d Been The Bear and got a great entry etc. I’d be happy that I’d followed my plan. Time to regroup and learn what I can….

Pleased with the anticipation of the setup but did not trade it well at all.

I am NOT in the Zone at all!!

06:41

Area of RESCON@11700???

The 11700 level has been sold aggressively twice last week, see chart. It will be interesting to see what happens if price reaches it.

The D1 EQZ@11693.8 is a major level….

Mon 15th October

by

08:01

GZ M15 Sell FIBCON +0.88R

I really liked this setup right at the London open. Unfortunately the bear move reached only 1.6R of my 2R target.

After crossing down both M1 and M5 moving averages I locked in profit above them to give price some room with levels of possible support. However, the usual strength of the movements around the London open took price up again giving me 0.88R. 

Mon 15th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

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20:55

Today’s Results, -1.98R

Another losing day but for the reasons mentioned below I’m pleased that I handled my emotions well after breaking my rules and chasing price. The downward spiral can be fast and after experiencing this in the past I quickly closed down my charts and walked away for the afternoon.

Since last Wednesday’s sell off I’ve taken trades at RESCON that have not worked out like others over recent weeks. I’ve increased my risk on a few of them due to not Being The Bear.

Earlier this month I’d been pleased at the end of the day that I’d followed my rules, win or lose on a trade. I’ve not felt that since last Wednesday so at least I know what I’ve got to work on. Trading is such fine margins at times which is why if you break your rules you can really affect your results.

I want this blog to be an honest account of my trading journey, so on that note I’d say I’d become a little over confident, my trading has therefore reflected LUCK and not SKILL!!

20:45

Broke rules, chased price AGAIN = loser, -1.32R

This Hurts!!!

I walked away after the earlier losing trade, came back to my desk only to see price had come back down to the Open. Next thing I knew I’d entered another trade chasing price in the HOPE that the level would break and 2R+ would be the result.

It started well but then reversed. This is NOT skill, it’s bad habits and I’d not felt this feeling for a few months. The feeling is called “Revenge Trading” and all traders go through this, only those that neutralize it go on the be successful.

I’d not felt this for a few months, I recognised it and reminded myself of the destructive nature of it so I closed my charts down and left my office. I did not look at the charts until early evening and was SO pleased ay my decision, the price action in the afternoon looked very difficult to read, I had therefore limited my losses and handled the negative emotions well.

So despite breaking my rules I feel pleased to have limited the potential damage to my account that comes from powerful unhelpful emotions 🙂

14:02

Broke rules, chased price = loser, -1,21R

My own fault, was NOT concentrating as I was distracted by a software update!!!

I totally reacted 🙁

That’s what happens, even if it had worked out it would have been luck and NOT skill and NOT Being The Bear!!!

11:44

GZ Sell @RESCON winner, +1.55R

I marked up a Golden Zone with point A taken from Yes High and point B from the PW Low on the hourly chart, the 61.8 level is shown at 11588.6 on the M1 chart.

I left my desk briefly, came back only to see the bull spike, I didn’t get the best entry resulting in a wider stop than I wanted. It was a great area of RESCON to sell as shown by the reaction.

Happy with the anticipation of the setup, would like to have got at least 2R out of it though.

Below is the H1 chart showing the FIBCON setup and how perfectly price spiked up to the 61.8 level, had I not left my desk I like to think I’d have gotten a better entry and had 2R on the first reversal before the M1 MAB sent it back up to test the Open.

10:26

GZ H1 Sell MAB@RESCON loser, -1.00R

I waited for price to reach an area of RESCON that consisted of:

  • H1 MA
  • H1 EQZ@11516.8
  • H1 Bear Channel
  • 61.8 of Golden High-Low Zone
  • Bottom of M5 EQZ@11521.7

It started well but took me out for -1.00R, pleased with the setup, pleased with my patience and trade entry, just didn’t work out.

If it had and price had moved back down to the D1 Bear Channel it was a potential 4R so from a Risk/Reward POV it was a decent setup.

 

Fri 12th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

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20:03

Today’s Results, -1.44R

Below are my comments before I took a late losing trade. I was +0.38R in profit till then!

The late trade was a sell@RESCON that didn’t work out

…………..

A break-even day of fine margins where it could so easily have been a +5R day.

My trade management is a work in progress for sure but that means I’m taking good enough setups consistently for this to be where my focus needs to be 🙂

20:45

Missed Great GZ M1 Buy Micro-MAB

I’ve just noticed a great GZ M1 Buy Micro-MAB when price moved back up. I missed this, should have been on it as it was structurally and contextually very good.

20:27

Sell@RESCON loser, -1.82R

Ouch!!

I sold when price moved back up to the key H1 EQZ level @ 11516.8, it started well but then I ended up moving my stop to allow the H1 Bear channel to play its part, did not work out and resulted in a -1.82R loser 🙁

Both the H1 EQZ and the H1 Bear Channel had been acting as support earlier but failed to function as resistance when I needed them to.

This has been my latest live trade at 20:09 on a Friday, the bulls got a boost from somewhere, I was on the wrong side of it.

19:49

GZ M5 Sell MAB loser, -0.44R

This would have been a +2R winner had I not trailed my stop at around 1R in profit.

I should have kept it above the 61.8@11490.3 but even then it might have been tight. I could have gotten a better entry but the end result was a -0.44R loser only to see it go on to win – such fine margins!!

19:41

Buy@RESCON loser, -1.03R

I took the buy trade when price eventually moved down to the H1 EQZ@11516.8 and the 61.8@11517.8 as mentioned below at 12:14.

It started well but this time the level failed. I’m wondering what clues were there in the way price approached the level.

It slowed down and sat above it forming what could be called a “Bearish Rectangle” for over 30 mins before the break. Yesterday on two occasions it approached the level at speed and bounced perfectly.

I was pleased that I waited until it reached the level, on this occasion it didn’t work out.

14:03

Sold break of High-Low GZ, +0.75R

I sold the break of the High-Low GZ but ended up with a slighty late entry otherwise my 2R would have come in.

After a Triple-Top price turned short-term bearish.

Price is very choppy today so closed out for +0.75R.

12:14

Buy Setup@61.8 level@ H1 EQZ@11516.8 ??

I’ve marked up a possible Buy setup if price moves down to the H1 EQZ@11516.8

Point A is taken from Yes Low, point B is taken from today’s High (Yes High also) and look where point C falls – perfectly confluent with the H1 EQZ and look-left to see what happened twice yesterday.

12:03

GZ Sell@RESCON, +1.00R

This was great sell setup at zone of RESCON, I was pleased with my entry and decided to move my target in case the bears took over and drove it down to the H1 EQZ@11516.8 which they had done twice yesterday.

After seeing my target passed price reversed at the Open+H1 Bull Channel then moved back to hit my stop. Price is currently moving back down, had I not trailed so closely I’d still be in the trade.

I was GREEDY, should have moved my target down to just above the Open 🙁

However, VERY pleased with the anticipation and read of the setup, MUST manage trades better 🙂

11:57

Sold break of M5 EQZ level, BreakEven +0.10R

Price has not moved up to the areas of RESCON mentioned earlier after failing to hold above the D1 EQZ@11693.8 it has moved down to test the Open.

This was not a good trade, I sold the break of the M5 EQZ@11590.3 and trailed a tight stop only to be closed out for break even.

There was strong support at the H1 EQZ Mid-line at 11580.4, I would  – should – not take this trade again.

08:12

Major RESCON@11810…..

I’ve identified a second area of RESCON just above the one I posted earlier.

What makes it stronger is the Role-Reversal structure when you look-left. At the 11810 level the following components of the Grid are confluent:

  • D1 Bear Channel
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • Role-Reversal structure

So there are two possible zones of RESCON if price can break above the D1 EQZ level at 11693.8, maybe a juicy salmon will show up!

At present price is struggling to break above the D1 EQZ@11693.8

06:51

Possible GoldenZone RESCON?

If point is taken from the D1 EQZ at 11987.7 then the 61.8 level is at 11760.1 PLUS on the hourly chart the H1 EQZ level at 11772.0 is also confluent – see below.

It’s also a possible H4 MAB???

Thu 11th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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19:45

Today’s Results

Not a great day, two of the trades I’d not take again, the 4th and the 5th.

Quite tough reading some of the price action after the big sell off yesterday as the market digested things.

The first trade I should have had a full 2R from and the second – buy – trade should have been at least 4R due to the context, I should have let the trade run for longer.

19:38

Buy at SUPCON loser, -1.12R

The idea was right BUT I entered too early!!

The best value was at the H1 EQZ level at 11526.8, the M15 chart showed this. 

19:34

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -0.99R

This was fast moving Micro-MAB just after the US Open,  structurally it was ok but did not work out.

14:09

Sell at RESCON loser, -1.37R

I allowed myself a second bite of the cherry when price came back down to the 11643.2 level and after reassessing the history of the level.

It started off well but stalled at the D1 Bull Channel at 11627.5. If the level had broken then multiple R was possible but on this occasion it did not work out which would have more than made up for the -1.44R loser.

 

14:04

Sell at RESCON loser, -1.44R

You can see why I’d wished I’d let my buy trade run higher 🙁 

I sold at RESCON with my stop above the major H1 EQZ level of 11643.2, I did move it to allow for this. Price had already been reversed by this level/zone earlier but on this occasion it did not work out.

13:57

Buy at SUPCON winner, +1.99R

I anticipated a buy at SUPCON if price came down to the 11521.7 level as it was confluent with the 61.8 level of the current Golden Low-High zone.

I got a great entry but my stop was larger than I’d preferred. I closed out for 2R but did plan on seeing how high price might go, wish I had….

Very happy with the trade….

09:58

Sell at RESCON winner, +0.35R

After yesterdays huge sell off it was a question of “What next”?

I identified an area of RESCON and entered when price reached the zone but did not get the best entry. I moved my target lower anticipating a follow on of the bearish mood.

That didn’t happen and I ended up with a small winner, if I’d have gotten a better entry the 2R would have come in BUT I did move my target as explained so not sure what that would have resulted in.

Pleased with the setup, another great example of the Grid highlighting where event zones are likely to result in opportunities.

Wed 10th October

by

10:54

Buy at SUPCON  +1.67R

After many setups where I was close to enter but waited probably too much for the exact entry level, I marked this one well in advance, waited patiently (doubted a little bit as well) and went for it.

Note the magenta coloured lines availables on the Expert Advisor as Measured Move. The idea is to somehow estimate the lenght of a trend by taking the distance from A to B in any successful setup (fibcons & mabcons that worked out) and apply it from point C to the next stop, marked as “D?” as we don’t know exactly what the market will do. 

So I waited for the trend to reach point D, coincidentally a very important level as the Daily Bull channel might be a place whe price looks for support before retaking its bull trend, and decided to buy. I was close to be taken out as the movement down was aggressive, but fortunately my stop loss was low enough to give room to such movement. 

I could have left the trade reach its original 2R level but the 5min Moving Average was being quite strong as a ceiling over the last 90 minutes, so after allowing price to test it twice I opted for securing profit. 

As I write this, price managed to brake that level and went  for the 15min Moving Average! That’s the life of a trader! 

Wed 10th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:58

Todays Results

20:53

Video Commentary

14:27

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON winner, +3.09R

The earlier anticipated sell didn’t play out but another did 🙂

Once the H1 EQZ level at 11899.9 broke then I marked up the Golden Zone and found a 61.8 perfectly confluent. I waited patinetly and was rewarded with a +3.09R winner.

I was tempted to ride price lower but have to leave my desk so wanted to be out of the trade.

Below is the hourly chart, note the H1 EQZ level at 11899.3, superb Role-Reversal structure that supported taking the trade.

11:04

Anticipating Sell Setup???

If price was to move lower I’ve marked up a possible sell setup at the 11900 level with point B at the PM Low ???

10:13

GZ M5 Sell MAB winner, +2.10R

I took the M5 MAB and this time did not touch anything!!

I was 0.1 pip from being stopped out but it worked out and went on to be a +2R winner 🙂

 

09:10

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON loser, -0.79R

Ouch!!!

I really liked this sell setup and got a great entry with my stop just above the M5 EQZ Mid-line at 11952.8 but when price moved up to test it I closed out!!!!

My stop was perfect, did not let it play out 🙁

Price then reversed and has gone on to reach the 2R target 🙁

Good setup, good anticipation, POOR trade management.

The Golden Zone had decent confluence supporting the sell trade:

  • H1 Bear Channel
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • M5 EQZ at 11945
  • M15 KeyZone (not shown)