Daily DAX

Tue 9th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:23

Today’s Results, -1.00R

Only one trade today, it was a good setup but was just stopped out before price when on to be a multiple R winner.

14:02

GZ M5 MAB sell loser, -1.00R

I was just stopped out on this GZ M5 Sell MAB, price went on to sell off very stringly, one to have ridden down for multiple R !!!

Mon 8th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:24

Today’s Results, +4.22R

A good day 🙂 

20:22

Video Commentary

I’ve videoed todays trades as follows:

00:00-07:18     Live Buy Trade off SUPCON

07:19-11:35      Commentary on earlier trades.

11:36-14:12      Anticipating sell MAB trade.

14:13-16:45      Live sell trade.

16:46-18:12      Trade analysis

 

16:26

GZ M1 MAB Sell winner, +0.99R

I’ve passed on two good sell setups but did take this GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB. I liked the structure and context but got a bit greedy pushing for multiple R, ended up with +0.99R.

Very pleased with the trade, once again I’d anticipated it well in advance, should have done better than 1R though.

13:20

Buy off SUPCON winner, +2.30R

Price eventually made its way down to the D1 EQZ at 11987.7 and the H4 KeyZone at 11986.0 where I was sat waiting….

I ended up buying at the level but covered the H1 Bear Channel below resulting in a larger stop than I’d like. I got +2.30R which was great but I missed the GZ M15 MAB sell at the H1 EQZ level at 12027.3!!

Very pleased with this trade as it was anticipated from early this morning 🙂

11:32

GZ M15 Sell MAB winner, +2.02R

When price failed to break below the BRN of 12000 where I was waiting to buy at the zone of SUPCON at 11987.7 I marked up the M15 Sell MAB at the PW/Yes Low.

I sat waiting for just over 30 mins before a late breakfast was served 🙂 Very pleased with the setup though we can never be sure if price will spike up before reversing, this makes setting the stop loss a challenge at times.

I made sure my stop was well the PW/Yes Low and was able to get a decent 2R target.

Note the perfect Measured-Move off point B at 11997.8 up to the 12050 level, I’d marked this on before price reached it, another reason why I loved the setup.

08:52

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -1.09R

I took the first setup after 8am which was a sell M1 MAB.

The 61.8 level was just below the PW/Yes Low, not bad plus I was able to set my stop above the M5 EQZ mid-line at 12058.6 and the 2R target above point B.

This one did not work out, I reasoned that if price was going lower this is where it might offer a chance to enter the move down.

Fri 5th October

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09:41

Buy at RESCON +1.72R

Although I was very happy with my entry level, I suffered too much for those +1.72R.

The DAX went all the way down to the 12135.7 level as anticipated by Mr. Phi here: https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/fri-5th-oct/

I bought expecting a fast retracement but to be honest, after analysing how it got there, the downtrend wasn’t as aggressive as it could be, therefore the retracement I should have expected to be slower than usual. As the chart shows, price went towards my 2R profit target, it got really close but not enough to close my trade, and I ended up being caught up in a 1hr 21mins trade that hoovered near my entry level for almost 45 minutes. Too much suffering! I could have ended the trade manually near the top but somehow my greed was asking for more.. When price went back up, I wanted no more even though the worst of it had already happened…  

Anyway, +1.99R overall, really good way to finish the week.

08:33

Sell at RESCON

I started the day taking some risk. I felt that breaking the 12217.4 level was going to extend the downtred seen after the London open so I sold in two separate opportunities being aware of the risk involved by selling at a lower low or near it. That’s the reason why I locked in profit as soon as I had the chance and that is the reason why I ended up missing the downtrend that somehow felt it was coming!

I guess I should have accepted the possibility of loosing 1R and let the trade take its time! 

Fri 5th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:45

Todays Results

Just the one trade today.

11:14

Buy at RESCON – D1 EQZ Mid-line, +0.63R

I was The Bear, I waited patiently and took the buy trade at the major D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

However, I ended up with a wide stop and closed out for +0.63R. Price came back down below the D1 and H1 Bull Channels, I closed out but had I not then I’d still be in the trade.

I would like to have ridden this up for multiple R but today that didn’t work out.

What’s important and key is that we anticipated the precise level that price reached before reversing, that’s the Power of the Grid in action 🙂

NFP soon so I’m not trading for now…..

06:42

NFP Todayat 13:30

NFP today so expect the markets to slow down late morning.

Keep an eye on the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7, if price sells off and reaches it then expect some action 🙂

Thu 4th October

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10:31

GZ Sell FIBCON -0.28R

Another trade that didn’t work out, and even though there was an attempt to move below the M5 moving average, the bulls took over and drove price higher before going back on my favor. I could have locked in profit to mitigate my risk, but I wanted to give price a little bit more of room an decided to move my stop loss above the M15 moving average to add an extra layer of resistance. A -0.28R that hurts a little but nothing to worry about.  

It looks like after an intense start of the session, price will be ranging at least until Wall Street opens at 2.30PM.

08:50

M5 Sell FIBCON -0.88R

Not too much to say about this one. After reaching the low of the session, pirce moved up aggressively towards the M5 moving average. It went furhter than the 61.8 level marked on the chart with the Fibtool, but when I saw it crossing the M5 moving average back down, I thought I had the trade I was waiting for several minutes. It didn’t work, it was within the probabilities of being a loser trade, and it only remarks the importance of taking all edgy trades as stated below.

08:05

Missed GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Today was a clear example of how important is to trust structure when you are trading following an edge.

Even though the DAX looked really bearish after the bank holiday, price moved up to test Yesterday’s Close level as soon as the London market opened. As my mind was in bearish mode, expecting the index to move donwards, it didn’t matter that I had marked and positioned the trading tool to buy a possible retracement, I just didn’t take it when I had the chance, fearing that price would cross both M1 and M5 moving averages, letting me out of my first trade of the day in a matter of seconds. 

Exactly the opposite happened, with price taking just 3 minutes to move back up, reach what it would have been my 2R profit level and re-test Yes Close.

But that’s not the end of the lesson: after re-testing Yes Close, look at what happened:  

Yes, DAX went down exactly as expected, formed a Double Top that I knew it was in play after it broke the previous GZ M1 FIBCON whose level is marked in red, retraced to the M1 moving average and kept its way down. 

As I was without any profit, I am trying to avoid riskier trades like this double top (not part of the edge) unless I have some profit already, so look at the implications of having missed that first trade! I could have been +4R or more in less than half an hour of being trading!  

Thu 4th Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:58

Todays Results, +0.20R

After three losers it was good to end the day breakeven 🙂

Such fine margins as always!! On the 3rd trade (-1.54R), if I’d not been stopped out by 0.1 of a pip then I planned to ride the move back down for multiple R.

16:41

GZ M1 FIBCON, +2.27R

After price sold off once the US came online I anticipated at sell setup if price retraced back up to the area of RESCON at the Open.

I was pleased with the setup and trade entry. I did try for more R but closed out for +2.27R when price reached an M15 KeyZone that had reversed price in the past.

After three losers today its great to have two winners and get back to breakeven.

I was SO close to a multiple R trade at the 12346.2 H1 EQZ level earlier, very happy with following my process 🙂

14:42

Two Sells at RESCON 1 loser, 1 winner -1.54R, +1.55R

A higher zone of RESCON at Yes High looked a good sell setup.

I entered as shown but my stop was just below the H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12346.2, I ended up moving it just above after confirming the strength of the level on the M15 chart.

This is the ONLY acceptable time to move a stop, when structure justifies it and you have confirmed this.

Look how close I was to staying in the trade when the US opened at 14:30, such fine margins!! After the bearish strength of the reversal I entered another sell trade and got +1.55R. Price has since continue to sell off 🙁

What I’m pleased about is how well I anticipated the setup.

14:16

Sell at RESCON sell loser, -1.07R

Sold at area of RESCON:

  • Open
  • Yes Close
  • D1 EQZ at 12283.3
  • H1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel

Very happy with my entry and stop, it was above the RESCON, this one didn’t work out.

10:15

GZ M1 FIBCON sell loser, -1.01R

After price was held by the first zone of SUPCON I took a sell trade on the first decent retrace. My reasoning was that if it was going down to the second zone and the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7 this might be where it would turn around.

The only thing going against the trade for me was selling into SUPCON, a good enough reason to have passed on it.

Even though it was a loser I liked it because of the Grid components that protected my stop:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12218.6
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line at 12217.4
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • Top of M5 EQZ at 12225.2

So not an aweful trade at all from a structural POV, it was however a low probability trade. If I was right and price had targetted the lower zone of SUPCON I may well have moved my profit target to more than 2R.

Averaging 3R trades mean you only need to be right 30% of the time to be profitable.

My plan was to then buy at the 12135.7 level at it’s such a major level, see earlier post today.

07:39

Two areas of SUPCON?

After yesterdays German holiday the DAX has moved down strongly after the 7am open. If it does continue to sell off then there are two potential areas of SUPCON as shown above.

The first one is at Yes Low / PW Low where the D1 Bear is in play.

The second one is at:

  • The D1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ at 12154.6
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

This one has the very important D1 level at 12135.7, the Daily screenshot below shows this. 

Also, if point A is taken as shown at 11922.4 then the 61.8 level is 12127.3 adding to the area of SUPCON.

Tue 2nd October

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09:58

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON +2.01R

Blackbox edge in play! These should be the trades to take. Probabilities on your favor, less inherent risk and a sweet +2R locking in profit as soon as price broke certain key levels. I was expecting price to test the Daily Bear Channel so I put my take profit there (+4R), but even as I write this (40 mins after the trade closed), the market is playing around the 12218.6 level. Note that on the last 3 hours no hourly candle was able to close below that level! Are we looking at a bottom? See the H1 chart below:  

08:15

RESCON Sell +2.62R / -0.86R

After such an aggresive start of the session, I looked for possible levels where price might reach a temporary (or permanent for the day) ceiling, and watching closely what the market was doing I risked trading the 2 shown RESCON trades. 

Not too much to say about the first one, it is risky and unpredictable but often comes with multiple Rs if you choose the right entry level. Price moved incredibly fast up and I saw a possible stop at the 5M Moving Average that didn’t hold up and lasted seconds only.

When price reached the Hourly Bull Channel, I saw a last chance to find a retracement level. I entered the trade with a considerably high stop loss and waited for it to go down. It could have been a 4 or 5R trade but considering the nature of the trade I am more than happy getting away with +2.62R.

08:12

GZ M1 Sell MABCON -0.15R

What a roller coaster today’s session is!

After an aggressive bearish move initiated minutes before the London open, price retracted to the M1 Moving Average for what I thought was going to be a great start of the day. Well, it didn’t last long. When price reached my 1R level I decided to move my stop loss to breakeven level in order to reduce my risk and seconds after that I was taken off the trade for a -0.15R. 

 

Tue 2nd Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

08:29

Mad Opening!!!

Wow!!!

What an opening, at 8am price sold off strongly down to the area of SUPCON as anticipated. I was waiting to see if it would test the D1 Bear Channel or the PW Low. 

I decided to wait for a buy setup if the SUPCON reversed price. It certainly reversed price but no setup as the bull spike up to the H1 Bull Channel was untradable!!

The move back down has left me thinking that it’s best to stand aside and wait for things to settle down as the current price action is not tradable or clear at all.

Below is the updated H1 chart showing how price reached the area of SUPCON and reversed. It then stormed up to the H1 Bull Channel at 12300 to produce an H1 MAB then came all the way back down.

06:36

Area of SUPCON?

If price sells off and gets below Yes Low there is an area of SUPCON at the D1 Bear Channel.

Mon 1st Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:17

Todays Results: +3.81R

A great start to October 🙂

14:54

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.58R

I adjusted the Golden Zone and area of RESCON so that point A was taken from the PM/PW High on the H1 timeframe – see below.

The 61.8 level was therefore confluent with:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left along the 12355.4 level you can see the great Role-Reversal structure below on the H1 screenshot.

It took a few hours for price to eventually reach the area of RESCON but was worth waiting for 🙂

11:52

Two sells, +0.51R, -1.01R

When price broke down through the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 I got drawn into two sell trades. Neither of them were good trades!!

The loser was structurally a better setup but low value in the context of the current bullish mood.

10:39

Updated area of RESCON

I’ve updated the area of RESCON mentioned earlier. This point A is taken from the PM/PW High, this shifts the Golden Zone up to a better looking sell zone at the 61.8 level.

The RESCON consists of:

  • 61.8 level 
  • H1 EQZ at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left there is very good Role-Reversal structure.

10:35

Sell loser at RESCON, -1.02R

I took a sell when price was struggling to break above the area of RESCON at 12326.7, it did not work out, a bit choppy whilst price resolves this area.

08:23

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.75R

At 8am the price moved up above the area of RESCON consisting of:

  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ
  • D1 EQZ
  • 61.8 of current Golden High-Low zone
  • H1 MA

When it failed to hold above it I sold the move back below it. I waited for a micro-retrace back up to H1 Bull Channel and entered a sell trade as shown.

I moved my target down to just above the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12262.5, this worked out well resulting in a +2.75R winner 🙂

07:40

Possible RESCON?

After Fridays sell off price is currently sat above the Open waiting for the London open.

On the H1 chart above I’ve marked up a Golden Zone where point A is taken from just below Yes High. If price was to move up then a juicy salmon might be seen around the 12326.0-12337.0 zone.

Thu 27th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:33

Two Sell winners, +0.58R, +2.19R

I took a sell trade that was not great value so I closed out for +0.58R due to the M1 MAB which was the better setup as shown by what happened afterwards.

After failing to hold above the Open price moved back down below Yes Low and the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 to produce a Lower-Low. The Golden Zone was at Yes Low so I sold the retrace for a +2.19R winner.

After the move down and the move back up off SUPCON price is currently ranging with Yes Low being approximately the middle of the range.

10:27

GZ M5 MAB Sell loser, -1.35R

The area of SUPCON held, I was waiting to see if price would test the H1 Bull Channel but the H1 Bear Channel was the turning point.

I took the GZ M5 Sell MAB but inside I knew due to the SUPCON it was a low probability, so will pass on a similar one next time. The gap meant I had a -1.35R loser 🙁

09:10

Two sell trades off the Open, -0.96R, +7.76R

At 06:40 I updated the blog to show an area of potential SUPCON.

I reasoned that price might retrace up to the Open to offer a sell trade, if so and Yes Low breaks then multiple R is available.

My first trade was a loser but when price moved back below the Open I took another sell, this proved a good call as it resulted in my best trade since going live 🙂

The reason I was OK with entering the second trade was based on the probability of multiple R being available if price broke below Yes Low. It was the Price Action Grid that supported this reasoning based on the area of SUPCON.

I moved my taget to just above the area of SUPCON. If I’d have been more patient I could have got more from the trade but was very pleased with the result.

07:19

MAD M5 Micro-MAB at 7am Open

Just before the 7am open price moved down to test Yes Low. Just as the 6:59 candle was about to close price shot up to the Open.

It retraced slightly then paused for a few seconds before 7:00, at the open price gapped down as shown.

Structurally it was a great Golden Zone M5 MAB but difficult to trade as we don’t enter trades during the 7am and 8am opens due to the gaps but this one would have worked 

06:40

Area of SUPCON??

The H1 chart shows an area of possible SUPCON between 12255.1 and 12282.6

  • D1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 Bear Channel
  • D1 MA

If price breaks below Yes Low then there’s white space on the way down the D1 EQZ at 12282.6