Daily DAX

Wed 26th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:00

Great GZ M1 Micro -MAB

Just spotted this decent GZ M1 Micro-MAB that formed around Grid structure.

17:22

Sell at RESCON, +1.58R winner.

After a move up off the low price reached an area of RESCON I’d anticipated would cause price to at least reverse temporarily.

I sold at the Daily Bear Mid-Channel and closed out for +1.58R as price looked like it would move back up off the M5 EQZ level at 12368.3

13:25

Video of two sell trades

This video shows the two sell trades

00:00 – 05:13 Live Sell Trade 1.

05:14 – 11:18 Live Sell Trade 2

12:52

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON, +1.70R winner

After price made a Lower-low I took the sell FIBCON at the 50% level.

Really pleased with the setup, should have waited a few seconds to get the full 2R but I was happy with +1.70R 🙂

09:54

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON, -o.22R loser

After selling off strongly I sold the first decent retrace. Point A was taken from Yes Close to produce the Golden Zone.

After observing the 61.8 level hold price I entered a sell trade. At +1R I reduced my risk, however price moved back up off the micro-keyzone resulting in a -0.22R loss.

The only reason for not taking the trade was due to it coming off the session low. The next and higher value sell setup is if price moves on up to Yes Close and the Open which is a 61.8 level (12376.6) when point is taken from the Daily Bull Channel, see below.

Tue 25th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:47

Example of Bear Trap

Above is a great example of what’s called a ‘Bear Trap’.

Price has been in a range with the bottom of the Golden Low-High zone and the Open being the bottom of the range. Price broke briefly below the bottom of the range drawing in sellers before reversing back up.

This is called a classic ‘Bear Trap’ and experienced traders will be looking to buy the move back up into the range.

14:09

Video of losing sell trade

This video shows the sell at RESCON anticipated earlier in the blog. The setup was good and I was pleased with my trade entry.

I lost -0.54R due to reducing my risk when the trade was at +1R. I kept my stop above the Grid components that formed the area of RESCON.

This was one of those trades that didn’t work out but I’d take it again!

12:10

Sell at RESCON, -0.54R loser

I took the sell at the previously identified area of RESCON. Despite it being a loser I’d take the trade again.

At +1R I reduced my risk whilst still protecting my stop with the Grid RESCON components, that worked out to be a good call as I’d have taken the full 1R.

 

 

09:39

Spikey open then ranging

After the move down then up to form the current Low and High price has been stuck in a range around the Open.

We must Be The Bear and avoid getting drawn into poor setups!!

06:38

Possible RESCON??

If price moves up to test Yes High there’s an area of RESCON just below it.

Mon 24th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

Thu 20th Sep 2018

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:22

Video of earlier Sell Trade

This video captures the earlier sell trade as follows:

00:00 – 05:27 Anticipates the sell setup.

05:28 – 10:50 Live trade.

10:51 – 13:48 Post trade analysis.

09:59

Sell Winner at RESCON

I did not intend to trade this morning on my first day back at my desk after 2 weeks away. However, I took a look at what happened at 8am at around 8:30, I then began to reason out using the Grid where the next areas of SUPCON and RESCON are.

Next thing I know I’ve identified a very interesting area of RESCON, it consisted of:

  • D1 EQZ at 12283.7
  • H1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Golden Zone, phi=12303.7

I ended up videoing the setup and taking the trade, below are the before and after screenshots:

  • D1 FIBCON, note the 61.8 level at 12303.7
  • H1 Chart anticipating sell setup at RESCON.
  • H1 Chart showing what happened next.
  • M15 Chart anticipating sell setup at RESCON.
  • M15 Chart showing what happened next.

Below is the Daily chart showing the higher timeframe FIBCON, note the 61.8 level at 12303.7, price reversed at precisely the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7 which was confluent with the Grid components listed above.

Below is the Hourly chart anticipating the sell setup at the H1 EQZ at 12282.6 AND the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7

Below is the Hourly chart showing what happened next.

Below is the 15 minute chart anticipating the sell setup at the H1 EQZ at 12282.6 AND the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7

Below is the 15 minute chart showing what happened next.

Fri 14th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:09

Daily Grid Context

Before I leave the office take a look at the Daily Chart above. It shows why price sold off very strongly back down to the Open when it moved up at 08:47 to test Yes High and the Daily EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

Look-Left to see the Role-Reversal structure from June-August. This is why the Grid is SO powerful and this is why we must use two MT4 installs to constantly show this higher timeframe context at a glance. 

08:53

8am Grid Buy Trade Setup

I’m just about to leave for another trip away. I’ve just taken a look at the 8am action and cannot resist commenting on the buy setup that the Grid identified at 8am.

The bullish momentum from yesterday has so far continued into this morning. Between 7-8am price made a Higher-High just above the PM Low, at 8am price pulled back to the Daily Bull Channel, note the up and down arrows for its Role-Reversal structure.

The M15 Chart below shows the same Grid structure, note the Daily Bull Channels Role-Reversal structure.

Thu 13th Sept

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10:25

Multiple Trades – No profit

Affected by what happened on my first trade (see below), and conscious of the profit I left on the table for taking my 2R quickly despite what it was a huge rally, I was observing how price wanted to retrace and therefore took some sell trades. When it comes to risky trades like those ones, as soon as I am in profit (+0.5R or more) I move my stop loss to breakeven to make sure that I am not risking anything. 

The firs two trades (left side of the chart) were bad trades, taken at levels that didn’t reflect what was going on and therefore I closed them as soon as I could.

The third trade, risky as it was (it involved moving the stop loss above the bullish channel – not recommended), offered me +2.5R that I didn’t take, having in mind that earlier on the day I had closed a trade too fast, it then went right to my stop loss (at the breakeven level to avoid losses), took me out and resumed the downtrend reaching aprox 3.5R of profit in just 5 minutes..

Honestly, that last movement I didn’t even see it, as I turned off my laptop as soon as it let me out of the trade for -0.02R!

To be fair, and this is the lesson of the day, if you are not taking your 2R at least risk a little bit and place your stop loss above the mid channel and the 1 and 5 minute moving averages that were crossing at that moment, ensuring that there was some resistance between your stop loss and the current price.

08:08

M5 MAB +2.07R

Great way to start the day! 

Right after the London open, I was waiting for price to touch the M5 moving average before continuing the uptrend shown since the beginning of the session. As soons as it approached that level, I entered into a trade that went more than half the way towards my stop loss but quickly turned into a great trade.

I was expecting the day to be bullish, but I also expected a retracement once it crossed my 2R, and as the trendline that I added beforehand shows exactly how price respected it for a couple of minutes, I decided to sell in order to buy again if it was going to get closer to my original entry level. Guess what? It never did.. The last candle you see on the screen turned bullish in those 47 seconds left, and after that it was all upside, so much so that I could have done 10R on that trade without significative retracements!

Fri 7th Sept

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08:30

GZ Buy FIBCON

I had it! After hitting a resistance area at the 11987.7 level, price went down quickly to the 61.8 level I marked with anticipation. 

I liked the trade but as it is difficult to measure the strength of a movement, specially after coming off an area of support or resistance, I quickly moved my stop loss to breakeven in case bears took price lower. 

In 30 seconds, I was almost +1R up.

In 1 minute it took me out of the trade for a -0.01R, and half a minute later price was close to my +2R! 

Fri 7th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:11

4 trades, 2 losers, 2 winners

I took two buy trades just after 8am, they were both losers. I guess I was trading the move up to the RESCON mentioned earlier.

They were not good trades and I’m pleased the second one was a small loser.

When price failed to hold above the D1 EQZ level at 11987.7 I sold the Micro Double-Top and moved my target lower reasoning that this could be another bearish day.

It was going well, however, I trailed my stop too close to an M5 EQZ Mid-line at 11952.8 and was in the process of moving my stop back up slightly when price spiked up and closed me out for +3.38R.

I should have closed out when price reached the area of SUPCON but was so wanting to ride a big move down I gave back a few R 🙁

See entry below for what happened next.

After being closed out  – see above – I sold again due to the bearish reaction to the Mid-line when I’d trailed my stop too closely. Very quickly price sold off again and once again I moved my target lower hoping to ride a bearish move down.

The result was the same as earlier, it went well, at one point I was +7.00R in profit but failed to maximize the setup and was eventually closed out for +2.06R

As I type price is moving back down due to the M15 MAB and Yes Low which I should have used to protect my stop when going for a bigger move down.

So, 5 trades, +2.64R in profit BUT it should have been much more!!

I failed to let Grid structure guide me as to when I should have closed out, I was being too optimistic, greedy and going for the +10R trade I’ve been dreaming of.

A profit is a profit and I’m pleased to have these trade management issues to work on, they show I’m at least on the right side of the market.

08:23

Area of RESCON on M15 Chart

Here it is on the M15 chart, maybe there’s a juicy salmon up there 🙂

08:19

Area of RESCON Maybe??

Possible area of RESCON?

07:22

M1 Sell MAB Loser, -1.62R

My own fault for re-acting rather than anticipating 🙁

I sat down just after 7am to see price coming up off the move down, just above the Low. I quickly put the FIB tool on and entered the M1 MAB at the M5 EQZ Mid-line at 11952.8 only for price to gap up then gap up again for a -1.62R loser.

The trade lasted 3 seconds and I did not move my stop!!

Sometimes you get away with it but not today. The move was back up off the D1 Bull Mid-Channel at the Low and Yes Low and price has continued moving up.

Very poor trade, should have just watched!!

Thu 6th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:06

Sell loser using M1 Micro-Channel

I spent too long looking at the M1 Micro-Channel and entered a sell. Did not work out 🙁

18:18

M5 Sell MAB using M1 Micro-Channel

I’ve just taken a look at the last few hours of price action since the sell winner and noticed that  price continued to sell off after breaking below the D1 EQZ level at 11987.7, it formed the session low just above the D1 Bull Mid-Channel.

It then went into a range whilst order-flow rebalanced itself. This range was actually a gently sloping bear channel as shown by the M1 Micro-Channel.

Look what happened when the M5 MA (red line) caught up with price. It was confluent with the top of the channel and the top of the M5 EQZ at 11960.6 and offered a sell trade back down to the bottom of the channel and M5 EQZ zone.

A 3R trade was possible with good timing!!

Note how price has moved back up into the channel, this is a great example of how the Price Action Grid can assist us in taking 2R+ trades from Micro-Structure . We have to ‘Be The Bear’ and study the price action day in day out and learn to spot these patterns.

Price Action is a language and like any language it takes time to learn.

15:20

Sold break of H1 Bear Channel, +2.31R winner

I’ve just taken a sell trade when price moved back down from the Open to test the H1 Bear Channel.

This was NOT a FIBCON or MAB BUT I’d seen this price action before and on the second attempt to break below the channel I entered the trade.

I closed out just above the 12000 level for +2.31R, very happy and in profit for the day 🙂

14:37

Golden Low-High Potential

After reviewing the Golden Low-High Buy trade earlier it’s worth pointing out how good a setup it was, even though I didn’t trade it profitably 🙁

The M15 chart above shows how price moved back up to the intersection of the D1 and H1 Bull Channels.

It’s common to see price move between the Daily and Hourly Grid structure like this, the challenge of course is trading it profitably!!

11:25

Greetings from Scotland!!

I’ve just setup my laptop and monitors after the trip up yesterday. I will keep an eye on things but will be unable to trade throughout the day as normal.

Yesterday price continued the bearish mood reaching 12034.1, today its set the current session low at 11986.4, at the bottom of the D1 EQZ shown above.

Once again the Grid in action.

12:27

Two losing trades, such fine margins!!

After setting up my laptop price was moving below the Open. I reasoned a Golden Low-High Buy trade was possible at the H1 Bear Channel.

Price briefly retraced back up the Open, I positioned the Trade Tool and was SO close to taking the sell down to the Golden Low-High when price gapped down 🙁

I took the Buy trade but did not get a good entry and then decided to reduce my risk only to get stopped out before price went on up and would have given me the 2R winner.

Such fine margins!!!

I then took the M5+M15 Sell MAB that was structurally good. It immediately went in my favour which is always cool but it then reversed and continued on up. However, I did reduce my risk which went in my favour on this occasion.

So, two losing trades and was SO close to taking the sell down to the Golden Low-High zone which was a potential 3R based on my read.

The M5+M15 Sell MAB I can reason was low probability due to the context of price moving up off the H1 Bear Channel and the 61.8 level of the Zone.

This is the fine margins and reality of trading, it’s part of the journey, embrace it, minimize risk, control emotions that can lead to such things as “revenge trading”.

“Be The Bear”, wait patiently for the next setup, be consistent and the traders equation will take care of things 🙂

12:56

Two losing trades from yesterday

Yesterday I took two losing sell trades. The first one was a sell at the PM Low, it started well but the M1 MAB sent price back up. I moved my stop based on an intersection on the M5 chart, did not work out and resulted in a -1.60R loser – Ouch 🙁

The second sell was at an area of RESCON:

  • D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7, this was a major level as seen on the Daily chart.
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel

The bulls took over 40 minutes but they eventually broke up through it resulting in another loser.

This trade was rushed as seen by my trade entry point, it was due to FOMO. Had I been more patient I may have waited for better value and ensured my stop was above the 12154.6 level.

I had to stop at this point, however, price only reached the H1 EQZ level at 12154.6 before selling off to test the 12000 level. I’d moved my target on the second trade down to 12050.0 anticipating this based on the Daily and H4 charts, had I not been stopped out that would have been a multiple R winner!

The point here is that we must be consistent in our reasoning knowing that eventually we will learn to master price action and multiple R winners will be normal.

Losers are are part of the game but a consistent approach and controlling our emotions will allow the traders equation to work its magic 🙂

Wed 5th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

08:33

Major support level being tested

Price has continued moving down after yesterdays sell off and is currently testing a major support level at the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

We need to see a clear Higher-High or Lower-Low form as price moves away from the zone/level as price will be very rangey and spikey whilst it’s being resolved.

The H1 Bull Mid-Channel and H1 Bear Mid-Channel are also confluent with this level.

This shown on the M15 chart below.