Daily DAX

Tue 4th Sept

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Today I will create an unorthodox post. 

I was hesitating to post today’s trades as I am definitely not proud of them. But it wouldn’t be honest to post only the good side of my trading, showing only perfect confluence and timing as if we were robots taking only great trades.

So far, I am profitable for the day but I am not happy about my performance. If your chart ever looks like the ones below, you are at least, not trading the edge taught by the guys from Blackbox. 

It started well, with me managing risk in the first two trades, but I was blinsided by the initial move up at the beginning of the session, not noticing that it was an agressive trend that would last at least 4 hours. I was in buy mode the whole session, missing good opportunities to sell. Please see below 7 trades, split between the 5 and 15 minute charts:     

 

08:55

10:40

SUPCON – H1 Bear Mid Channel

SUPCON – H1 Bear Channel

08:30

Multiple trades

What you saw above is a trader ignoring a clear trend in the market.

I had 7 buy trades in a market that was and (as of 11:52AM) still is plummetting.

I am +1.19R yet I know that it is not the way that will take me to consistent profit. Lesson learnt! 

 

Tue 4th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:15

GZ M15 Great Sell

I’ve just sat down after being out this afternoon and spotted a great sell setup.

Price has sold off all day forming a session low at 12160.0, from there price retraced up to the H1 Bear Channel. The RESCON consisted of:

  • H1 Bear Channel
  • 61.8 level at 12245.4 (after trying a few options if point A is taken from Yes Low its a perfect fit)
  • M5 Bull and Bear Channel intersection (not shown).
  • Great Role-Reversal structure

A great sell setup, wish I’d been at my desk.

Once again note how the Grid channels channel price!!

I’ve just taken a screenshot – below – of the M5 chart to show how cool this setup was and how it supports trade reasoning and decision making 🙂

10:58

Video of sell trade

This 9 minute video is of the sell trade taken earlier.

00:00 – 03:42   Anticipates the sell setup.

03:43 – 06:45   Live trade.

06:46 – 09:23  Post trade analysis.

This sell trade setup was very similar to the one I videoed last week where the Open formed part of the Golden Zone.

 

09:54

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON, +2.01R

At 7am the European traders drove price up above the H1 Bull Channel, just after 8am price moved up to form the session High before selling off strongly back down below the H1 Bull Channel.

There was a very aggressive sell trade possible when price spiked below the H1 Channel and Yes High, see screenshot below.

I waited for a clear break below the D1 Bull channel and the Open. It eventually came when price moved down the the PW Low. I entered a sell trade as shown when price retraced back up to the Open and D1 channel.

The Golden Zone formed perfectly between the Open and the D1 Bull Channel and the earlier LL at the Open provided excellent Role-Reversal support for the trade.

This was an excellent setup and worth wating patiently for.

The screenshot below shows the aggressive sell trade mentioned above, the strength of the bear candle supported a move lower with Yes High and the H1 Bull Channel acting as high-speed Role-Reversal structure.

Mon 3rd Sept

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09:08

H1 Sell MAB

I had to go to the City for an hour but before leaving I spent some time trying to identify possible support/resistance areas that could give me some profit.

When I left price was hanging around the Daily Bull Channel(as I write it is still doing so). However, I left my trade tool in a place where I would take a trade if price got there.

When I returned, the screen shot above shows exactly how I found it. Price went right up, got to the Mid H1Bear Channel and, helped by the H1 moving average, had a fast retracement to the Daily Bull Channel. A quick +2R or more had I been at home at that time.

Anyway, happy to have identified that trade in advance, that’s definitely the way forward! 

Mon 3rd Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

19:24

Price is deciding the next move…

After last weeks move down through the daily bull channel price has spent today moving between:

  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Bull Channel
  • D1 Bear Channel

This has resulted in a range  day with the best setup being the H1 Sell MAB mentioned earlier. We must study what price tends to do when deciding the next move. 

Note how price interacts with hourly bull and bear channels after it fails to hold above the Daily Bull and Daily EQZ last week at 12577.5

This Daily and Hourly grid structure captures all the key turning points as price makes its way down.

12:47

Higher timeframe Grid

The 4-hour chart above shows the Daily Grid structure overlaid. Price is currently finding support on the D1 Bull channel boundary, the question is:

  1. Will price move up back into the bull channel or
  2. Move on down to where the D1 EQZ at 12283.7 and D1 Bear channel is.

Below is the M15 chart which along with the Daily Grid structure has the Hourly Grid structure overlaid.

Since testing Yes Low and PW Low (Friday) price has been contained between the D1 Bull Channel and the H1 channels (Bull and Mid-Bear).

10:19

D1 and H1 Bull Channels……

I’m not trading today but will post the occasional update on what’s been going on.

Last Friday at 17:00 price eventually moved down to the D1 Bull Channel as anticipated. This morning price has been testing both the D1 and H1 Bull channels for support.

This has resulted in price currently being contained between them, the above screenshot shows this. Since 8am price moved up to test Yes Close then moved down to test the Low.

The Micro-Bull spike back up above the D1 Bull Channel was confluent with the top of the M5 EQZ at 12331.0, this was followed by a very precise move up to test the H1 Bull channel. This was a great sell setup due to the confluence of:

  • H1 MAB
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • 61.8 level at 12355.8 (see below)
  • M5 Bull and Bear Channel intersection (not shown)
  • Top of M15 KeyZone (see below)

Below is the M15 chart showing the Golden Zone and the M15 KeyZone. This H1 MAB sent price back down to the D1 Bull Channel and offered a potential 4-5R with good timing.

This retrospective analysis is easy of course BUT it is part of the process as it helps to develop confidence in the Price Action Grid. Trusting Grid structure is vital and the only way to develop that trust is to watch price interact with it day in day out.

Fri 31st Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:26

Four sell trades, +0.79R

I wasn’t planning to trade today but last night I took a look at the charts at noticed that the Grid showed that if price broke below the D1 Bull Mid-Channel there was clear space – except the H1 Bull Channel – on the way down to the lower D1 Bull boundary.

This is a quick update as we’ve family arriving very soon, the headlines are:

  • The bearish call was correct.
  • I was at my desk at 06:30 and the sell setup was looking good.
  • At 06:50 price moved up to the perfect sell position at the RESCON confluence of:

    1) D1 Bear Mid-Channel.
    2) H1 Bear Channel
    3) The 61.8 level at 12477.5

  • I was unable to enter the trade at 06:50 due to the spread being 5.3 pips 🙁 It proved to be the perfect entry point, the spread reduced to 0.8 pips at 06:58, just before the European open at 7am.
  • I took a great sell 07:03 and moved my target down in anticipation of the bear move down. I trailed my stop to reduce risk and ended up being stopped out for -0.52R after it had passed the original 2R target.
  • At 07:27 I had a dose of FOMO, entered a sell trade, resisted moving my stop but on this occasion had I moved it up slightly I would have had a great winner but instead took a -0.99R loss.
  • At 8am the London injection of energy sent price down strongly confirming my read of price action. I entered a sell trade after a brief retrace to the Open, a good call and once again moved my target down. It was a great trade but I only got +0.55R from it 🙁
  • At 08:44 I took a Golden Zone Sell M5 MAB that was another great sell trade that went down perfectly to the H1 Bull Channel, my target was just below it, above the D1 Bull Channel, I ended up with a +1.75R winner.

So, after 4 sell trades I ended up with +0.79R. I should have taken more than this from the guidance the Grid gave but such are the fine margins we have to live with.

Despite this it’s a great end to August after I’ve spent this month going deeper into the Price Action Grid. 

Below are the screenshots from this mornings trading.

This first one is from last night on the H4 chart. It shows how price two days ago failed to hold above the upper D1 Bull Channel and the D1 EQZ level at 12577.5 followed by yesterdays move back down into the channel.

The potential for a continued move down from the D1 Bull Mid-Channel to the lower boundary is what I based my bearish reasoning on.

This next one shows the M15 chart and the great sell trade entry at 12477.5, I was unable to take this due to spread being 5.3 pips at the time.

The one below shows the great GZ M1 Sell MAB at 07:03 and how I was just stopped out.

The one below shows the FOMO mentioned above. It was poor trade due to indiscipline but had I moved my stop to just above the 61.8 level at 12466.3 it would have been a good call and kept me in the trade as price moved down afterwards.

This last one shows the two further sell trades I took that were winners. They were both good setups and I had great entries but did not maximize the profit potential 🙁

Note how price set the Low right on the H1 Bull Channel, my target was at 12338.0, that was aggressive and greedy I guess but overall I’m happy to have read the early price action well based on the H4 chart above that I took a screenshot of last night.

Fri 31st August

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08:40

GZ M5 Sell FIBCON +3.66R

Yes! I’ve waited long for a trade like this one. For months I took poor value trades, which caused me not to trust in good setups!

Since last week I’ve been taking resonably good trades only to close them too early for too little profit.

Not today, hopefully not anymore. 

Price retracted to the bottom of a very significant level over the last 2 months, that is, the hourly equidistant structure at 12428.2

I prepared in advance and entered the trade on the 61.8 level of the Fibonacci retracement tool. It proved a good call! 

Something to improve? Taking into account the concept of measured move to maximise profit, given that price almost replicated the previous downtrend (called by Blackbox the A-B leg). 

Anyway,  nothing to complaint about, a good way to finish the week!

8:15

SUPCON -1.22R

The day of the “slippery salmon”? That’s what I thought on my first trade… I waited for price to brake the H1 Bear mid channel, kept being patient until it went over the same line, and entered the trade just to see how a last push downwards took me off the trade before retracing above my 2R level.   

Thu 30th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

08:35

GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB

I’m not trading today due to preparations for family visiting over the weekend but I’ve just taken a look at the charts to see what happened at the 8am Open and noticed an early very fast moving but structurally very good GZ M1 Micro-MAB.

The Golden Zone had great Role-Reversal structure (look-left) and if spotted and taken would have resulted in a very short trade if going for 2R.

As I’m typing price has moved on down into an area of SUPCON and the bears look like they’re targeting the PW High which is just below a D1 Bull Mid-Channel.

The screenshot below shows this.

Note how price failed to hold above the D1 Bull Channel AND the D1 EQZ at 12577.5, “What cannot go up must go down.”

This shows how the Price Action Grid can help to guide our reasoning processes

Wed 29 Aug

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10:20

GZ M5 Sell MAB

Small profits for the kind of trades I took today!

Good timing, a generous stop loss and still both could have been +2R. But instead of focusing in the money I left on the table, I am happy that I chose good trades, as I know that as long as I keep trading this kind of setups, the long term probability of being consistently profitable is high! 

Wed 29th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:45

Video of GZ M5 MAB Trade

This is a video of the Golden Zone M5 MAB trade mentioned below.

It shows the trade being anticipated BEFORE point B, the Lower-Low formed. 

00:00 – 01:18   Intro (white screen).

01:19  – 09:55   Trade setup and anticipation.

09:56 – 13:16    Trade live.

13:17 – 15:57     Post trade analysis.

 

10:58

GZ M5 MAB Winner, +2.06R

What makes this one really cool is I anticipated it well in advance, see the the screenshot below.

Whilst price was in the choppy range after 8am I decided to wait for price to break below the session low, at that point it was at the Open/Yes Close. The ideal Golden Sell Zone I reasoned would be a retrace to the current session low where the:

  • Open
  • Yes Close
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line at 12534.8

would all act as confluence to support the sell setup.

Based on this I was able to project where point B (the Lower-Low) would need to reach to support this setup. The screenshot below shows this marked up with 12520.7 being the level required for the perfect ‘Golden Zone’ sell structure to form.

Things played out perfectly, the only thing I would change is to have waited a little bit more to get the best value entry but after a few occasions recently where I’ve been too fussy and missed the trade entry I entered as shown. This meant my 2R profit target was lower than originally planned but the trade went on to be a winner 🙂

Note: On the screenshot above showing the winning trade the session’s ‘Golden High-Low Zone’ has moved down due to the session low moving lower, it has therefore covered the sell ‘Golden Zone’ that was used to enter the trade. This zone is shown below on the screenshot predicting the setup.

What was ideal about this zone was that it had great Role-Reversal price action when looking-left, see second screenshot below of the M15 chart, the arrows show this. This is a great example of why we use our custom setup where a second install of MT4 is displayed on a second monitor to provide higher timeframe context at a glance.

Below is the screenshot anticipating the sell setup, point B needed to be approximately at 12520.7 and that’s exactly what happened 🙂

Note: This was not luck or a one-off. This type of reasoning comes from commitment and passion to studying Price Action day in day out!!

M15 chart below showing the Role-Reversal price action that supported the sell trade. 

08:38

Very Choppy Open

So far its been a very spikey and choppy 8am open, one or two very fast moving setups but best left alone.

However, note how the Grid has contained the action so far:

  • Open.
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel (High)

Also, note how the H1 EQZ level at 12556.2 has interacted with price.

06:36

Possible event zones

Yesterday price consolidated the move up to D1 Bull Channel, it remained below it after failing to break above it early in the session.

From there is was for the most part a range day and never went close to the areas of RESCON and SUPCON highlighted. There is a fair bit of RESCON to move higher in the way:

  • D1 Bull Channel
  • D1 EQZ at 12577.5
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel

Below is the same Golden Zone highlighted yesterday where the SUPCON consists of:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12492.2
  • H1 Bear Channel (held price yesterday)
  • D1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 KeyZone

If price does move up strongly through the D1 Bull Channel there is an area of RESCON shown at the 12663.7 level.

Tue 28th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:26

M1 MAB Sell Loser, -1.00R

Same again!!

When price retraced to:

  • The Open
  • Yes Close
  • H1 EQZ at 12556.2
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel

I sold. It started well but did not work out, it failed to break below the H1 Bull Mid-Channel.

The best sell was the one I passed on, these last two setups were not rubbish, the Open and the H1 EQZ can be very effective, I’ve just got caught up in a short-term range with the Open in the middle of it.

This a classic case of taking minnow setups and not the juicy salmon ones.

Despite two losers I’m pleased that I:

  1. Didn’t move my stop.
  2. Didn’t chase price.

These two bad habits will cripple you trading results!!

10:25

Double-Top Sell Loser, -1.01R

When price retraced to:

  • The Open
  • Yes Close
  • H1 EQZ at 12556.2
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • Micro Double-Top

I sold. It started well but did not work out.

Breaking above the micro-channel was maybe a clue but right now I class it as one of those that didn’t work out but was definately a lower probability setup than the sell I just passed on.

10:04

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

I really liked this setup but was too fussy, I wanted price to reach the Open before selling.

If I’d added the M1 Micro-Channel shown below then maybe I’d have taken it.

Note how price touched the upper and lower boundaries with the current Low at the bottom at 12533.2

Whilst we focus on the ‘permanent’ Grid structure at times it can be useful to mark up a micro-channel as shown when trading the 1 minute timeframe. These channels don’t last long but can be helpful.

08:36

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

The battle is at the D1 Bull Channel and the D1 EQZ level at 12577.5

The above sell FIBCON was decent but a bit too congested for me.

07:37

M15 SUPCON Zone

Here’s the possible SUPCON zone on the M15 chart. I’ve used arrows to highlight the Role-Reversal structure.

If price does come down to it there is also the D1 Bear Mid-Channel just below it.

07:03

Possible event zones

Overnight price has reached the lower D1 EQZ boundary at 12577.5, where next?

If it moves on up into the D1 EQZ there’s an area of RESCON:

  • D1 Bear C
  • H4 KeyZone (not shown) 12663.7

To get there it has to also get through the H1 Bear Mid-Channel followed by the H1 Bull Channel.

If it moves back down into the H1 EQZ there’s an area of SUPCON:

  • H1 EQZ ML at 12492.2
  • D1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • H1 KeyZone
  • 61.8 level at 12491.4 when point A is taken from the H1 EQZ level at 12428.2

 Right now price is sat on the Open at the top of the H1 EQZ and the H1 Bull Mid-Channel.