Daily DAX

Fri 3rd Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:39

Buy REVFIB Loser, -1.15R

I took the Buy REVFIB, I liked it but it did not work out.

My initial setup was based on the M5 Sell MAB producing the B-C PB leg down to the GZ. However, the M1 MAB sent price up to the Open before the PB.

Maybe that Price Action negated the strength of this particular setup in that the bullish energy had run out at the Open?

Will note this and watch closely in the future.

10:23

The Energy Of Golden Zones

I’m glad that I passed on the early REVFIB just after 8 am due to the context. I marked up the Outer and Inner FIBCONs, their GZs show the miro-range price has ended up in so far today.

The Outer FIBCON (magenta) has its 61.8 level@12608, this was the bottom of a Bullish GZ and you can see how precise the level is. We must learn to get more out of the Price Action Grid along with any GZs and this is a great example of considering buy trades at the BOR.

Also, this last week the price action has highlighted just how important it is to mark up the GZs on the Daily, Hourly, and Intraday time frames as part of a daily routine.

Had I used to them this week to guide me in my decision making I would have passed on a few losing trades.

Below is the GZ is shown on the M15 chart, note how the wicks show the bullish energy along with the Role-Reversal ones from earlier.

08:19

Passed on sell REVFIB just after 8 am

Whilst the sell REVFIB that formed just after 8 am had decent structure I passed due to the context.

Specifically that there’s a bullish momentum in the market from yesterday, things were very choppy.

06:00

Yesterday the Bulls were in Control

Yesterday the bulls drove price up from the 12281 EQZ level up to test the PW High just above the upper EQZ level at 12577.

With the US on holiday today things might be quiet but who knows?

Let’s see if there’s any follow-through, if not we may just go sideways digesting the move up OR maybe the bears will drive price down??

We will trade accordingly.

Thu 2nd July

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End of Day Review

+1.26%

2 trades taken.

1 winners, 1 losers, 0 break even.

10:19

M1 Reversal FIBCON Winner | +2.28R

And finally managed to trade a REVFIB after several weak attempts! 

Price moved up to form a new High, already in an area of resistance if we look at price in the past days. After the M1 moving average failed to hold price, I was already waiting for price to come back down towards the M5 moving average. It didn’t touch it, but it was good enough to send price back up. I took the trade at the 61.8 level of the retracement, and voilá!  

I feel like price wants to keep going down if it brakes the 12470 level, but after two days of bad results, the sensitive approach was definitely to take profits. 

11:36

Failed M1 FIBCON | -1.02R

Great battle between bulls and bears at this level! There was role reversal marked with the red line and the M5 moving average coming down. 

Bulls took over once they managed to break the resistance at my entry level, I had the chance to exit but I prioritised leaving the trade alone. Once manage to not to step into my trades naturally, next step will be to manage some of them according to price action. 

Thu 2nd Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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15:59

Two Sell Losers, One Sell Winner

After a few hours of Mark Douglas during which NFP took place, I returned to see that the bulls had continued to drive price up.

I ended up taking the above sell REVFIB where the GZ was confluent with the PW High. There was an aggressive REVFIB at 12651 but I was not at my desk to see that.

Below are two sell losers from earlier. Structurally they were good BUT it was the context that was the reason why they were low probability.

The energy had switched to a bullish one due to the Buy GZ on the M5 chart, see below. I sold into this bullish energy.

10:55

Grade A Sell REVFIB

After updating the blog earlier I looked to see what had been going on only to see that I was 5 minutes too late for the REVFIB at the High.

Well done Elaine and Alex for executing it perfectly 🙂

I lost track of time updating the blog and was a bit gutted but was so pleased others took it. It’s a classic high-quality REVFIB at the High, the two losing ones I took earlier were too early as the bullish energy had not run its course.

A second sell setup followed which I was sat waiting for but once again I was too fussy wanting price to move up into the GZ at the BRN of 12500

Upon review, once again the most recent micro-structure provided us with a clue as to where price might reach. I have updated my plan with:

If a GZ is reasonably confluent with KeyZones based on the wicks of recent SHs or SLs then go with the KeyZones (ie. the wicks) to act as Role-Reversal.

Do NOT insist on ideal GZ PBs for the trade entry.

Time to go watch some Mark Douglas..

 

09:58

1 REVFIB Sell Loser, 1 Buy FIBCON Winner..

I’ve really enjoyed trading this morning, I’ve had 2 losers and 1 winner and learned a lot!

Based on the Daily chart I’ve had a bullish bias this morning but when two potential REVFIBs came along I took them, both lost.

The first was just before 8 am, probably should have left it alone. 

The second one just after 8 am was based on the 50% midine@12429 and the H4 chart. But here’s the thing,

All I saw was the sell REVFIB, I was totally blinded to the quality of the buy setup offering a continuation FIBCON.

It was a proper battle as you can see but eventually, the bulls won and created an impulsive A-B leg breaking above 12429. But here’s the thing.

Once I’d lost the sell REVFIB I saw the buy setup.

Yesterday whilst watching a Mark Douglas seminar he mentioned specifically about how traders filter information, a classic is when we are in so invested in a trade we only see information to support it, completely blinded to a setup the opposite direction.

And then this happened to me earlier, SO, I have made a note of this rather important thing to be aware of. The idea being that next time I might reason something like:

Am I blinded to a setup in the opposite direction?

I will then mark up the opposite setup.

If I have two opposing trades in the same zone then I will pass unless I have a clear reason for bias, like today based on the Daily chart. Another clue was the break above Yes High.

After switching to buy mode I took the first decent PB to a GZ and ended up with a +1.60R winner. I closed out when it looked like it was struggling at the high. 

One thing to point out is the Precise Nano-PB to the 12438 midline after the BO above 12429. I marked up a possible buy and sent out the Trade Setup but the PB to the GZ never came BUT look at the accuracy of the Price Action Grid midlines showing where the PB did come back to.

NFP later so time to go watch the next Mark Douglas webinar.

 

 

 

07:57

REVFIB Sell Loser, -1.00R

I took the sell REVFIB at Yes High. I liked it, decent structure, and context but didn’t work out.

The only thing going against it was the timing, 7 minutes before the London open, however, there was time to see it go in your favour if the trade was going to work out.

 

06:47

GZ on M15 between 12281 – Open

The intraday GZ currently falls precisely between the EQZ@12281 and the Open.

It could be supportive if price moves down into it. We might see a REVFIB??

06:09

Still in the Daily GZ at 12281 – NFP Today

We are still in the Daily GZ just above the 12281 level. The move back down below it yesterday reached the lower GZ, just below the 50% level then the bulls drove price back up.

We are still very much range-bound, maybe today that will change, maybe not?

Note: Today is NFP at 1:30 pm, a day early as tomorrow is a Bank Holiday in the US.

1st July 2020

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End of Day Review

-3.14%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 3 losers, 0 break even.

13:32

Pair of M15 FIBCON losers | -2.22R

To be honest, I still like them! 

The first one had a good role reversal structure on the Yes Low level. Price did take more than 10 minutes to hit my stop loss (that I moved in order to let the M15 MAB come in play), but no level could hold bulls.

The second one was the FIBCON frim top to bottom, and having included both the 12281 level and the H1 moving average I had hopes.

It looks as if bulls just woke up after lunchtime! 

I guess the range we are on only allows trades either at the top or the bottom of it.. Let’s see if something else comes up. 

15:52

Failed M1 FIBCON | -0.92R

Unlucky? Never. I dragged my stop loss when the trade was 1R on my favor, but then thought “I said to myself I wouldn’t touch it unless I lock in profit”, so I put it back. Well, it looks like I set it back slightly slower than the original level, hence why it took me out by 0.92R  instead of 1R. 

Needless to say, it took me out and went down to my 2R target profit level. 

Wed 1st Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

21:32

A Few Sell Losers

I ended up taking a few sell trades following the mid-morning sell-off. The first two were based on reasonable A-B-C GZs but didn’t work out.

The third was possible REVFIB just after the US open, did not work out.

I then got caught up in the choppiness at the 12281 level, had a BE, and another loser, magnified by a gap.

Not a great start to July. A funny day for me due to the DAX feed going down for a few hours which meant we decided to watch some training material by Mark Douglas and ended up missing a cracking sell setup into below the 12281 level.

 

12:37

Bears back in control

Wow! What a morning.

Before 7 am I posted the trade setup anticipating a REVFIB at 12281 with a bullish GZ in play from the H1 chart. That played out but did not offer a clear buy REVFIB just after 7 am, price just went up.

Then the DAX feed went down at about 7:47 till 10:30 am. We decided to continue watching the Mark Douglas “How to think like a Professional Trader” 4 part series.

When the DAX feed came back online the price spiked around a bit then the bears took control and drove price back below the EQZ@12281 level offering two M1 Sell MABs.

What happened is another great example of how important the Daily EQZs are and once the battle is resolved at the level the winner (in this case the bears) will push price down into the EQZ offering multiple R potential.

This is why REVFIBs are to be mastered because the context in which they occur (reversal at key levels) offers multiple R as price goes back up/down the range or zone.

Whilst this screenshot is not of a REVFIB it shows how a “Continuation FIBCON” produced when price moves down into the EQZ offers the opportunity to ride it down.

 

06:46

Overnight REVFIB

Here’s yet another REVFIB that formed when price failed to hold the overnight highs. This is shown on the M5 chart at 5 am, its a cracker!

We must look to specialize in these as they are high probability offering multiple R profit potential. Identifying potential reversal points in the market in advance means we can set alerts to support us in spotting these juicy salmon 🙂

Some days the price action offers great setups, some days not. We must therefore “Be The Bear” and not force anything.

The two screenshots below show this, the one from Monday shows how when price reached the TOR (reversal zones) three great sell micro-REVFIBs occurred.

The one from Tuesday (yesterday) shows that when price reached the TOR (reversal zones) ZERO sell micro-REVFIBs occurred.

We must understand that no two days are the same and accept what the market gives us.

06:12

Going Sideways

There were not a lot of opportunities yesterday, price stayed within a small range as shown by the daily candle.

We are still above the 12281 level, within a GZ where the 61.8 level is confluent with the EQZ 50% midline@12429.

A strong break above 12429 or below 12281 might signal intention by buyers or sellers?

Tue 30th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:38

No Fish Sighted?

Price reversed back down without offering a REVFIB, nothing even close. If price had reached Yes High maybe that would have produced a sell setup but unless you sold at the 12318 level it was tough to get on the move back down.

I was waiting for a PB to 12281 for an M1+M5 sell once price moved back below it but nothing at all. Just one of those range days where no fish are biting. However, another example where price is stepping up and down through the midlines with obvious precision.

For me, the best setup was the buy REVFIB off the Low as noted in my earlier post.

11:42

REVFIB off the Low

I did not see this in real-time BUT should have!

I’d identified the reversal zone (BOR) if price was going to move back up as shown on the H1 screenshot from my earlier post. Hidden away was a decent buy REVFIB that included an M1 Bull channel at the 12207 level.

The REVFIB is appearing often at key reversal areas, they vary but they all have the same core A-B-C symmetry. They represent a shift in the energy from bullish or bearish.

When I have days like yesterday the case for trading only REVFIBs once you’ve identified the range or possible reversal zone makes so much sense??

 

 

11:21

Price Range-Bound (12189-12350)

After my earlier sell loser, I was reminded of the context of range-bound price action. I sold into support as you can see from the H1 chart above.

Note the FIB tool in blue and how price came down into its GZ before moving back up.

This time I passed on the M5 sell MAB due to the context, it proved a good call. 

 

09:15

Sell Loser, Poor Trade Context

I’m NOT following the rules for Ranges very well this week. Had I done so I’d have not entered the sell trades yesterday morning?

And today I took an aggressive sell after a new low was briefly made thinking the 12202 level was a target BUT the H1 chart shows how supportive the level is and any sell trades close to it should be avoided.

Price is in a tight micro-range right now, a clear break below 12207 might offer a sell setup?

06:15

Bulls in Control Yesterday

After testing the 11985 level yesterday morning around 7 am the bulls took control and pushed up through the EQZ to the 12281 level.

The 12577 level could be a target if the bulls remain in control, but first, they would have to get through the midline@12429 which is confluent with a 61.8 level which was acting in a TOR role last week, see the screenshot.

A clear break back below 12281 would mean the bears are back in control.

Mon 29th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:54

Feeling Philly-Sophical…

I’ve taken a break after the losers.

I should have taken the REVFIB and/or the following M1 MAB sell. I was waiting for the perfect PB to 12133 but it reversed back down just below it.

I then misread the PA after the move down to the Open, it was strong supportive energy in play and I was trading into it by selling. All crystal clear afterward.

Lot’s to learn, “Do NOT trade on your birthday :)”

10:12

Two More Sell Losers

Should have stopped after the two losers!

Got caught in in sell mode and the last one was emotional, I felt the FOMO and still took it, I’m done for the day.

 

09:40

Two Sell Losers

I’m SO not in the zone today so maybe I’ll go enjoy my birthday??

I took two sell trades after the PB off the Open. They had decent structure but I guess the Open was as far as the bulls would allow it to go.

Missing the Sell REVFIB off the High was a clue to maybe I’m not in the zone today?

07:43

GZ on H1 Chart

I’ve marked up a GZ on the H1 chart as shown. The 61.8 level@12202 is confluent with the midline@12207 and has decent RR when you look left.

It might offer a sell setup but if price is intent on moving up to 12281 then maybe not??

06:52

REVFIB That Failed

This REVFIB had good structure and context but failed. It’s pre 7 am so the spread is 5 pips and not one we’d trade.

It would have failed, however, note how precise the micro DB is when price moved down to the EQZ@11985

11985 is key just now…

06:11

Back in Daily GZ

Price is currently in the GZ from last week when it tested the 61.8 level@11985 and moved up strongly.

It has just (5:55 am)  formed a micro-DB on the M1 precisely on the 11985 level and bounced up off it to Yes Low.

 

Fri 26th June

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End of Day Review

-3.00%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 3 losers, 0 break even.

08:44

“Fine Margins” Failed M1 FIBCON | -1.00R

Unlucky on this one, great setup, would definitely trade it again. 

I must confess I adjusted my stop loss before entering the trade, it was a couple of pips higher, that would have given me potentially a winner. 

Only 20 minutes after that trade, price keeps doing new lows, now it would be at the bottom of my screenshot. After taking me out, price never came back to that level…Fine margins, happy to have taken that trade!

Fri 26th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:02

Recommended Reading

I forgot to mention, I posted the following link yesterday in response to a comment by Rab. If you’ve not read it then please do so, it’s a great article by one of three price action teachers I’ve had, Chris Capre.

 

https://2ndskiesforex.com/trading-strategies/forex-strategies/impulsive-and-corrective/

11:49

Done Trading for the day.

We’re going to enjoy a few hours in the garden planning our weekend of work on the website etc. We’re also a wee bit tired from two long evening rides in the heat so I’m done trading for the week.

It’s been a milestone week for a number of reasons, two notable ones are:

  • Trading using the updated Price Action Grid. The concept is nothing new, we’ve just advanced things to the next level. I’m really enjoying the additional precision of the Grid, more on this over the weekend.
  • Sharing Potential Trade Setups. I’ve planned this for a while, it was always about timing, both personally and the evolution of the trading environment. 

I will go over the setups in a video, this will serve as a video diary of our journey…

11:36

Missed Great Buy Setup 🙁

This good weather is affecting my performance!!

We’ve just been enjoying a coffee in the garden for the last hour and I’ve come in to see this great buy setup when price was able to break back above the 12281 level.

It highlights how the juicy salmon will eventually swim by, we just don’t know when.

09:49

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -1.39R

I liked this setup, the midline@12244 was great RR, look at in the M15 & M30 charts.

I did move my to protect it with an M1 Bear Channel, didn’t work out.

Note: I do allow myself some leeway with my stop ONLY if I can protect it with a small adjustment and still limiting my risk to acceptable levels.

See below the channel I used, look left to see how it functioned as RR.

09:16

M5 Sell MAB Winner, +2.01R

After price failed to hold above 12281 and offer an H1 Buy MAB plus a REVFIB I sent out a Trade Setup highlighting a PB to 12281 might offer a sell setup – It Did 🙂

I initially was waiting for the perfect entry at 12290 but took it at the level with my stop covering the GZ and M5 MAB, it worked out 🙂

I was tempted to go for more profit but passed, it therefore of course went storming down to the next support levels.

I really liked this setup, after using the horizontal Grid structure to identify the setup I overlaid the M1 Bear Channels to look for additional confluence, there was in the form of a midline at the M5 MAB, see below.

Look left at the midline and how it had recently been functioning as micro-RR.

06:49

Back above 12281

After 8 am yesterday price moved down to test the EQZ@11985 before reversing back up strongly off the GZ 61.8 level due to its supportive energy.

We are back in a range from last week, let’s see what happens today?