Daily DAX

Thu 11th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

14:58

Scotty Spice Comments

Hi Guys,

Elaine has added a comment below showing how well the channels capture the Price Action. With Mastery we will use this to our advantage 🙂

08:14

Software Update

Guys, yesterday afternoon I began working on a software update and will continue working on it today as I’m in the zone.

I will be watching things but not trading, I might post an update if I see something worth commenting on.

The update is related to optimizing the horizontal Grid structure to make it clearer than it is now, based on some feedback.

Good luck trading, “Be The Bear” and wait patiently for those juicy salmon like the one that showed up at 2 pm yesterday 🙂 See below.

07:37

Grade A Setup

The screenshot above is of Alex’s winner yesterday. He used a Sell-Limit and let it play out so he didn’t have to sit watching the charts.

Both Elaine and Alex anticipated the setup and had winners. Joel and Rab also spotted it which is exactly what we want to nurture, an environment where we’re all looking for the same trades.

Well done Alex! It was a great end to your day, focus on the process, and how you felt when you identified it.

Below is Elaine’s setup, refer to her comment on yesterdays blog to see it in full screen.

06:27

Bears in control

The bears are in control following yesterday’s sell-off. Note how during the overnight session price moved up to touch the magenta line I put on yesterday.

The daily level of 12283 might act as Role-Reversal based on when it acted as resistance back in late February, see the down arrow.

Wed 10th June

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<<

Back to Calendar

>>

End of Day Review

-0.96%

5 trades taken.

1 winners, 3 losers, 1 break even.

08:30

1 Loser, 1 missed FIBCON + 1 Missed Reversal FIBCON | -1.00R

I am not gonna start from the beginning because that first loser doesn’t deserve further words. 

What a great structure was formed this morning! I could still be on that missed Reversal FIBCON should I have been focused, probably around 15R by the time I write this with price wellll below the Open level you see at the bottom of the chart. Yes, 15% in one day could have been possible with an experienced trading management. 

Price moved up after the London open at 8AM, made a new High and started the retracement. If we take into account yesterday’s correction, it was a bearish environment. Therefore, if prices retraces to the 61.8 Fibonacci level, a Reversal FIBCON could be in play. It would have been the trade of the month, but of course it needs one to be absolutely sharp on executing trades.

After retracing to the bottom zone marked in yellow, price went up, offered seconds of an entry point and started going down again. 

I arrived 5 mins late to the party, time and practice will give me the skill to execute it properly in the future.

09:18

1H MAB | -0.98R 

What can I say here? Price reached my stop loss and never came back to that level. Not even close to it. 

I must confess I moved my trade tool slightly down, probably not to be out of a potentially good trade. That obviously moved my stop loss lower when entering the trade. 

Fine margins as @daxtrader likes to say. 

10:11

M1 FIBCON | Breakeven trade -0.03R

You may think I put the wrong screenshot above. That one was with the trading ongoing, at that time +1.12R but it reached almost +1.80R

Being by mid morning 2R down, I set take profit levels and ran away from the monitor.

The title of this trade was a huge spoiler, but it will at least allow you to say “nooo” as I did when I saw what price did, touching my stop loss at the breakeven level and doing exactly what I had marked, that is, going for the full length of the pink lines, a.k.a., measured move. 

Were we talking about fine margins on my previous trade? Well, fine margins indeed. 

11:44

1M FIBCON Loser | -1.00R

This one hurt a bit. I know we are supposed to feel no emotions as traders, which tells that I’ve got still a lot to learn, but I thought a had a winner here. 

The 1 min Moving Average only delayed the way up, and when it kept moving upwards towards the 5 min Moving Average, I marked the Fib Levels and saw an opportunity to enter.

I think that the trade was either a sell the 12528.92 level or a buy at the very same level once price broke it and came back looking for support, with the 1 min Moving Average nearby. 

Low probability trade, desperate for a winner. 

13:50

High-Low FIBCON | +1.97R

I was -3R for the day, bleeding and almost knocked-out, but when I saw this gem, 30mins before it happened, I was unable to excuse myself from it.

As emotionally I wasn’t in the best place, I set a Sell Limit order, placed the box right below the Open Level and stayed out of the charts.

I did spy now and again, is not that I didn’t care, but I was excited to see it executed before the US market open hours. 

I guess there is nothing else to say rather than I could have gone for more, but that day will come when I am not -3R and I can risk more. At the time of writing, price kept going down, but the point here is to had taken a good text book trade that ended up in a nice 2R.

 

That marks the end of my roller coaster trading session, thanks for reading!

 

Wed 10th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:34

Using Alerts To Take A Break

This is an example of how to use alerts. I’m only interested if price breaks above 12577 or below Yes Low.

I can minimize my charts, close my eyes, and chill rather than have to keep watching the charts.

As I’m typing the alert if price moved above 12577 has triggered.

12:01

Daily Levels

If price can move back above 12577 then we might see the bulls retake control?

The magenta line shows the key battle zone.

11:28

BE Sell, +0.16R

I passed on the M1 sell MAB at the pullback to the 12577 level, I was trying to get a perfect entry after my earlier M1 Sell loser!

However, when price broke below the midline@12528 I was ready to enter on a pullback to it, that did not happen.

I then sold on the break below Yes Low – this was aggressive – and trailed stop to BE asap due to the IKZ just below. These zones are powerful and it proved a good call 🙂

Take a look at the IKZs I’ve overlaid, they’re the ones that don’t extend completely to the right. Note how price touches them perfectly at times, see the two down arrows at 12577, and how they sent price down to the top of the one below.

They are easy to turn on or off and today have proved a good guide as to when price will reverse. The important thing is we don’t clutter the chart with too much information but if the horizontal structure is accurate and in play then they can be used accordingly.

10:25

Sell Winner, +2.00R

This was not a textbook A-B-C sell setup but when price looked like it was going to break below the IKZ just above the Open I entered a sell trade.

This was an instinctive trade as I was in sell mode once price had broken below the 12702 level that I mentioned at the start of the blog.

Note: The Intraday KeyZone (IKZ) is part of some additional horizontal structure that sits within the M30 EQZs. I will do a video on this over the next few days.

Just like channels, it can easily be turned on or off depending on whether it’s helpful.

Price is currently at the Daily level of 12577

09:26

M1 Sell MAB Loser, -1.00R

I took the M1 Sell MAB after the break below the 12702 level, if I’d entered at the 61.8 level this one would have worked out.

I entered too early at the M1 MAB, I needed to “Be The Bear”!!

07:13

Golden Zone on the Hourly Chart

There’s a GZ on the H1 chart between 12706 – 12754, it’s confluent with two midlines and clear Role-Reversal when you look-left.

If price tries to make new highs above the 61.8 level and fails then we might see a move down to the Open and H4 EQZ@12615?

A clear break below the H4 midline@12702 could offer a sell setup?

06:27

Daily Levels

After yesterdays sell-off from 12873 down to 12577 price has moved back up to the midline@12725.

Tue 9th June

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Back to Calendar

>>

End of Day Review

-0.44%

4 trades taken.

1 winners, 2 losers, 1 break even.

08:48

H4 MAB  Buy | Breakeven trade +0.02R 

First trade of a new chapter in my trading journey! 

After so many days of bullish price action, bears drove price down Yesterday’s Low and there it was the 4 Hourly Moving Average, which often in a sell off offers some resistance. I opened a trade on the 1H chart placing the stop loss below the key 12577.51 level.

Indeed it did offer some resistance, but I was so conservative on my stop loss, even having catched price reversing for a while, my trade was not even above 1R. Once price went above Yes Low once again, I moved my stop loss to breakeven should price not hold.  

09:16

Reversal FIBCON Buy | -0.97R

Second trade of the day, talked myself into a Reversal FIBCON that was not on the plans of the market. The sell-off was still ongoing, this was clearly a poor trade, and while the first trade offered an almost half and hour battle, this one lasted less than a minute. Patience needed! 

09:48

M1 MABCON Sell | +1.73R

After a bad second trade, I needed to at least have some understanding with the market! I had marked with the green elipse an area of strong support when price was still above it. Soon after that, bears kept taking price lower but the retracement offered an attractive M1 MAB with the previously marked area nearby now acting as resistance.

It worked to perfection, after watching price break several layers of resistance on the way down, greed took over and I moved my take profit level further down the original 2R. Looking at price hesitating just above my 2R level, I closed the trade and took profit. 

I should have never touched the take profit level, that was sitting just above an interesting channel mid-line that price tested and started a recovery. It was a 2R trade closed early.  

Touching my take profit level make deviate my attention from what I was looking on my previous trade, that is, a possible Reversal FIBCON, a pattern that normally offers multiple R. The chart below shows exactly what I missed! 

It turns out that my take profit level was the perfect entry point to profit from the whole structure of the Reversal FIBCON:

10:55

M15 Chart Reversal FIBCON | -1.22R

My successful previous trade, combined with the sense of having missed the next leg of the same movement, was probably the reason why I ended up opening the one below.

It lasted more than half an hour from start to finish, and it was around 1R at some point. That tells that structure was there to support this trade.

However, I entered it too soon, and I moved my stop loss to an area where I saw support.

The support was indeed there, but after touching my stop loss, of course. If that area was support, I should have either entered the trade already taking that into account, or not take the trade at all. 

Good learning stuff for my first day after more than 18 months without trading!

Tue 9th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:15

4 Trades, 2 Losers, 2 Winners, Net -0.37R

Today I reintroduced additional horizontal structure, these are zones that sit in the middle of the M30 EQZs.

They can be turned on or off (like channels) with ease depending on whether they are helpful or not. I will do a video on this very shortly.

I’ve taken 4 trades, all of the screenshot.

  1. The M1 Sell MAB, it was decent apart from the context. My tight stop meant I got taken out just below where price turned around at the D1 Midline@12725
  2. I then took the buy REVFIB above Yes Low, did not work out, the bears remained in control.
  3. I took the M1 Sell MAB but used too generous a stop as my target was well below the REVFIB GZ. I closed out for a small winner (+0.51R). The buy REVFIB was one I should have taken but was a little blinded as I was in the sell and willing price lower 🙂
  4. I really liked the M5 Sell MAB at 12615 and what a battle zone it proved to be! However, my target was well below the 12577 level so once price struggled to go lower I closed out for +1.13R, 10 mins later it went to sit on my target and has since moved back to the 12577 level.

After such a strong sell-off price is currently consolidating…

06:11

It’s All About The Key Daily Level 12873

Price is still at the D1 EQZ level of 12873, it’s a major level as shown by its supportive behaviour a few months ago before the big sell-off.

Let’s see what the price action offers today, yesterday offered a great Reversal Buy FIBCON at 4 pm when price reversed off the H4 EQZ@12788 but I was not tuned in and ended up with a BE trade.

Better than a loser but I should have walked away and let the trade play out.

Mon 8th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:11

Break-Even Buy Trade – Went on to win!!

I’m a bit gutted as I’d anticipated this buy Reversal FIBCON, sent out an alert and then ended up with a BE trade only for it to go on and be a winner 🙁

I was early with my entry but it would of been ok. I should have walked away and let it play out as I closed out when price pulled back to my entry.

Have not been tuned in to the Price Action today!

14:15

Micro Reversal FIBCON

There was a Reversal FIBCON off the high but I missed it 🙁

I’d limited my thinking to one forming if price came back down below 12873.

14:10

M1 Buy FIBCON Loser, -1.18R

I took the buy set up at 12873, it had good structure and context but did not work out.

The Role-Reversal was decent, but no follow-through from the bulls.

However, there was a Reversal FIBCON, see post above.

13:03

Break-Even Sell Trade

I was late with my entry and also felt the setup was tight so I closed out for BE once price moved back up from point B.

This was also a bull channel, see below.

I’d like to see price move above the High and if it fails then maybe we will see a better sell setup on the way back down?

12:17

Micro Range

Price is at the highs

11:19

Blog Comments

Guys, if someone adds a comment then you need to regularly refresh the page to see them.

If I update the main blog I will send out the blog update and it will automatically load a new tab into the default browser as you already know.

If I add a new comment that I want everyone to see I will also send out a blog update to force a refresh.

11:01

Open Holding Price

So far the Open has held price, maybe that’s enough to send price back down into the H4 EQZ@12788?

09:48

Reversal FIBCON at 12873??

If price moves up to test the area of RESCON at the D1 EQZ@12873 and fails to move higher we could see a Reversal FIBCON sell setup form?

This is already the current session High and has two midlines present.

It is also just above the PW High.

The D1 EQZ@12873 level is a key level and can be seen on the Daily chart.

 

 

Tue 5th May

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:21

GZ M1 Buy Reversal FIBCON Missed 🙁

This morning has been quite the ride – literally !!

 

Mon 4th May

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:45

5 Trades In One

Had busy morning so here’s 5 trades in one entry. I had two losers to start May with, the first one was aggressive followed by the second one which had decent structure but did not work out.

I then switched to buy mode and ended up with a BE.

The fourth trade as another sell back below the H4 EQZ@10538, I went for more than the 2R – which did come in – only to end up with another BE. Should have settled for the 2R!!

I then spotted the first decent juicy salmon swimming by and got a +3.55R winner. I was able to find a good bear channel and was going for 6R at the PW Low, this was too aggressive but pleased with the winner. 

Note how price reached the channel midline before reversing back up into what turned out to a range.

Thu 30th Apr

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:07

Talked myself out of another Sell at the current low

I am SO not in the Zone this morning!!

I talked myself out of this sell setup that was good enough to take despite price bouncing off the current lows at the D1 EQZ@11104

The probability of a Double-Bottom is HIGH under these circumstances yet I was too cautious, it had :

  • H4 EQZ Midline@11143
  • GZ when point A is taken from the Open.
  • Channel Boundary
  • Double-Bottom potential

structural support going for it yet I passed.

Time to switch to there projects as at lunchtime some big economic announcements are due so things might slow down after the early sell-off.

I’ll console myself in the fact that I’ve managed my emotions and not chased price, broke my rules, etc. and ended up with losers due to indiscipline 🙂

I’ll regroup ready for the next time, the DAX is a river full of juicy salmon!!

08:23

Talked Myself Out Of a Great Sell 🙁

My bullish bias has robbed me of two great sell trades so far 🙁

This next one was just after 8 am and it was a potential 5R as shown. I was SO close to entering the trade as the structural support for taking it was excellent:

  • Yes High
  • The M5 MAB
  • The H4 EQZ@11230
  • The M30 EQZ@11230
  • Great Role-Reversal – see M5 Chart from the earlier blog entry.
  • Channel boundary in play
  • The level had shown it was currently resistance from 7 am

I’m also aware that it’s the last day of the month and I’m wanting to protect my results as I’m in profit.

07:21

Early GZ M1 Sell Micro-FIBCON

I talked myself out of this sell setup as I was biased to buy trades but it turned out to be a great example of how if we follow our rules and trust the Price Action Grid some baby salmon swim by!

It had the following going for it:

  • Break below H4 EQZ+M30 EQZ@11230
  • GZ confluent with Role-Reversal – see M5 chart below.
  • Break below Yes High
  • Break below Micro-Channel.

With good timing a 2R was possible before price moved back up. This type of setup is a quick in and out and don’t be greedy, point B should be the target then closeout.

Using the Trade Tool and the Grid we can consider taking these types of micro-setups whilst controlling risk.

Wed 29th Apr

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:27

Today’s Video

 

 

15:23

Sell Reversal FIBCON at TOR

A great example of a Micro-Reversal FIBCON back down the range in the morning session.

08:49

M1 Sell FIBCON Break Even,+0.08R

I took a sell when price broke below the D1 EQZ@10808 but it was counter-trend, so when it struggled to get below the H1 MAB and the 10797 level I trailed my stop and was stopped out for BE.

My stop was generous which meant the 2R target was just above the PW High, either way though had I not been closed out the trade would have been a loser.

The bulls have been in control for the last few days but the 10808 level is a major battleground just now.