DAX Commentary
July 23rd-27th 2018
Tuesday 31st
I had to go out for a few hours and returned to see that price eventually moved down to test the area of SUPCON again, in fact it touched the top of the hourly zone mentioned earlier precisely (12753.3).
It then spiked up strongly at 14:24 to produce a HH setting up a decent M5 MAB upon the retrace down to the Open. The GZ had good RR structure when looking-left and with the stop covering the 61.8 level at 12781.8 would have resulted in a winner.
I’ve been looking at what else could have helped me avoid taking the earlier sell. I’ve already noted it was an area of SUPCON (Daily & Hourly Bear Channels) I was selling into.
However, I had also failed to mark up a very important Role-Reversal zone on the hourly chart (above) that price reached the bottom of – pip perfect – to set the session low before reversing back up.
I have the hourly and 15 min charts on permanent display on a second install of MT4 dedicated to the higher timeframes. I’d failed to follow my plan and keep it up to date.
I’ve since marked it up and look how clear it is!!
Had I marked up such an important zone I’m sure I would have talked myself out of the trade and maybe even looked for a buy.
Also note that the bottom of the hourly zone is confluent with the bottom of the 5 min EQZ at 12738.6 so whilst the sell setup was structurally good the context was NOT!!
Easy afterwards of course but this is the level of analysis we have to step up to if we’re going to master this.
The core structure overlaid by the Price Action Grid captures most of the key decision points price makes as it moves up and down but we also need to add zones like these as and when required.
Note: The previous GZ M1 FIBCON I passed on was much better value because at that point price was still on it’s way down to the zone and price had paused at Yes Low.
Still no guarantee it would break below Yes Low but if you’d had the zone marked up on the hourly chart you might have reasoned price might be targeting the zone.
The DAX is a VERY technical market and likes to target key zones and levels, this can be seen when trading day after day.
If these areas are not accurately marked up it’s like wandering through a minefield!!
Wow!!!
I didn’t move my stop but once Yes Low gave way the pressure resulted in a -1.46R loser 🙁
Structurally the setup was good BUT the context was it was reversing off an area of strong SUPCON in the form of the Daily and Hourly bear channel boundaries.
I still took it, probably because of FOMO after missing the great GZ FIBCON earlier.
I would not take it again!!
I’ve passed on these before, should have done the same with this one.
Price spiked down strongly and I found myself chasing it on a very rapid pullback. I glanced quicky at the 15 min chart to see a level that I entered at. I closed out after realzing that was not good practice, however, had I left it alone the 2R would have come in, typical!
A GZ M1 FIBCON then followed that I passed on as I was waiting for price to reach the Open and the M1 MA.
I closed out after price failed to move back up, in time to avoid the full 1R loser.
The risk was that we’re in yet another range period, plenty of them lately! However, structurally I liked it, the Golden Zone had decent RR when looking-left.
It started off well reaching +0.88R then reversed quickly so I closed out.
Monday 30th
Feeling a bit frustrated!!
After having to leave my desk for a few hours I returned about 14:45 to see price making its way down into the Golden Low-High zone. I was close to taking the trade at the bottom of the zone zone as marked up but passed because I didn’t feel tuned in to the price action and have a “rule” to not rush into trades.
However, on this occasion it would have worked out as price reversed precisely where it should have if this was a text book setup – which it was!
Trade entry was supported by:
- The M5 bull and bear channel intersection
- The 12800 level (M5 EQZ mid-line)
- Good Role-Reversal zone, look-left
- 61.8 level of the zone
- Open within the zone
Despite feeling frustrated about missing such a superb setup it’s great to see yet another session Golden FIBCON play out in real-time instead of after the event 🙂
The 1 min chart below shows the same setup and how it went on to produce a GZ M1 FIBCON when price retraced to the 50% level of the Golden Low-High at 12807.2
When mastered multiple R is available from the initial Golden Low-High followed by the M1 FIBCON shown below!
Just come back to see what’s been going on to see this M1 MAB that’s just formed. Price has gradually crept up over the last few hours but the very bearish candle after price failed to hold above the 12844.5 level was a clue to price was struggling to go higher.
The setup had very good structure as shown with an excellent Golden Role-Reversal zone, look-left 🙂
A decent FIBCON is sohwn that I didn’t see in real-time as I wasn’t at my desk.
A much better setup and value entry (12829.8) than the sell loser just taken.
The market is currently ranging making it a challenge, best stand aside until things become clearer.
After the move down to form the LL I sold at the retrace to top of the earlier GZ at 12825.8 and M1 MAB.
This was too early as shown, I forgot to overlay a copy of the short term channel which was confluent with the LL. I may have passed and reasoned a better value entry would have been on the retrace up to the top of the channel – maybe??
I had also not marked up the best FIB tool which is shown, I’d taken point A from the 12829.8 level, too aggressive?
Very pleased I did not move my stop!
I don’t think I’d take this trade again, it was low value.
After a bullish move back up off the Daily Bull, Hourly Bear and Hourly mid-Bull Channels at 4am price moved up to make a new session High after the 8am open.
A good M1 FIBCON formed as shown when price retraced to Yes Close, the bottom of the GZ-RR zone at 12821.6, a good with trend setup that I just missed taking.
As mentioned last week, overlaying a short term channel after the move up can be very useful in determining trade entry, stop and target levels.
Friday 27th
I was not at my desk and came back to see a decent GZ M1 Buy MAB had formed after price had made a Higher-High at the H1 Bull Channel.
We have family visiting from crazy hot South Wales so I’ll not be trading anymore today. I intend to enjoy yesterdays results and not replace the memory just yet 🙂
I anticipated price gapping down to test the 61.8 level of the current Go-Lo-Hi at 7am.
It moved so fast some slippage occurred, however it went into profit briefly before failing to get above Yes High. I reduced my risk and was eventually stopped out for -0.48R.
The idea was right but tricky to execute when price gaps at the 7am open. However, as I type the bottom of the zone is still holding and price is testing Yes High again.
I should have kept my stop below the 61.8 level to let the Golden Zone do its thing if it’s in play.
The trade was a buy and therefore had order-flow on its side due to the bullish price action of the last 36 hours or so.
Would I take the trade again?
Currently I’d say Yes and consider this as one that just didn’t work out!
Last Wednesday at 7am price gapped up to the 61.8 level of the Golden High-Low of the session then sold off strongly. Observing this is what finally made me decide it’s time to automate displaying this unique FIBCON.
Thursday 26th
Whilst reviewing the session I thought it might be helpful to show how identifying very short term channels can be very helpful.
Note: I studied channels a lot whilst learning about trading, it’s time to rediscover how useful they are. Developing the habit of marking them up as soon as possible is extremely important. I only had the first of these marked up in real-time, going forward I intend to look for them and profit from them!
If you can spot the channel early on it adds another level of precision to trade entry and target levels. These 1 minute channels last a short period of time before they break down but provide great guidance on short term opportunities.
It takes practice to mark them up by following a simple method each time then adjusting them as price guides you.
This 15 min chart shows what happened after my earlier Golden Low-High winner.
It’s not easy riding up such relatively large swings but price has eventually moved on up and is currently sat at the 12765.8 level, just below the PW High.
The arrow shows where I entered the trade, really pleased to have finally traded one after seeing so many of them over the last 2 weeks after the event.
It shows the power of the zone when price
I’m stopping for the day as I’m currentlyup +7.30R, my second best day since going live 🙂 🙂
The earlier -1.62R was an awful trade and a reminder of how bad habits need to be flushed out of the system, however….
I’ve just had my first Golden Low-High Buy winner off the bottom of the zone. The first one I took earlier in the week was a loser and poor quality, this one felt different due to the confluent structure at the bottom of the zone in the form of:
- Yes Close
- Hourly Bear Mid-Channel
- M5 Bear Channel – see below
Such confluence was missing the other day. Price briefly moved down to my stop – which I did not move – but then moved back up, such fine margins!!
Also, when you look-left the zone had decent role-reversal support from earlier in the session when price moved up (12725.5) just after the 7am open.
The 5 min chart was supportive (see below).
Price took a while to finally break back above the daily EQZ mid-line at 12725.5 but when it did the pressure that had built up meant I was rewarded with a +2.63R winner 🙂
Note that price then pulled back to the top (50% level) of the zone before making a second leg up to Daily Bull Channel where it failed to hold the level.
Below is the 5 min chart ,it shows where I entered the trade. Note the bear channel that helped to support price at the bottom of the zone – the 61.8 level.
This is why I wanted to update the bssIntradayKeyLevels indicator to automatically display and update the session’s Golden FIBCON. Throughout the week it can highlight great trade entries, not all the time of course but let’s study it closely. It’s worth mastering!
I took this GZ M5 Sell MAB a bit late but was pleased with the setup, it had value!!
Unlike the last one. That was a great example of why chasing price is futile and leads to slippage and other bad habits like moving the stop to compensate.
Took a great M5 MAB buy and pushed for more R, it reached just over 3R before retracing to my stop resulting in +1.56R
I did not have the upper boundary of my short-term channel correct, it was too high, on the screenshot it’s corrected, I might have closed out for a much better result – maybe?
When price failed I ended up taking a very poor value sell by chasing price!!! The slippage made it worse!!
This resulted in a -1.62R loser as I moved my stop, a spiral of bad habits!!!!
Below is the 5 min chart and like the earlier trade shows how supportive it was of the buy setup. It was confluent with:
- M5 MA
- Yes High
- The M5 EQZ mdi-line at 12746.5
- M5 Bear Channel
- M5 Bull Channel
Great setup, should have closed out for at least 2R.
At 7am a gap up to the Hourly EQZ level of 12701.4 took place followed by a quick spike down to close the gap perfectly before moving back up strongly.
A very bullish follow on from yesterdays late bull move up.
At the London open I had the M5 MAB marked up and after 2 pin-bars I entered the buy trade that came in after 28 seconds plus on this occasion the gap went in my favor for a +2.59R winner 🙂
Price stormed on up to push through the PW High before a sharp retrace to form an extreme pin-bar as shown below on the 5 min chart.
Shame I didn’t move my target in time as the clues were there that bulllish energy wanted to release itself into the market!
Below is the 5 min chart that was very supportive of the buy setup. The arrow shows trade entry, note the confluence of:
- The 5 min EQZ mid-line at 12693.6
- M5 MA
- M5 bear channel
- M5 bull mid-channel
- 61.8 with point A taken from the Open
A great trade to start the day 🙂
Wednesday 25th
Really liked the sell setup at the 61.8 level of the current Golden High-Low. Ended up taking two trades 🙁
A major battle took place in the zone but on this occasion price went up to test the High then sold off again.
One clue was that price was moving up off the Low where both bull and bear hourly channels provided support.
However, the sell setup at the 61.8 level was supported by the 5 and 15 min charts so would I take the trade again?
Certainly the second trade was the best value of the two and I class it as one that just didn’t work out and I’d take it again because we deal in probabilties and we can’t win them all! The key thing is to be consistent each time a decent setup forms.
Tuesday 24th
The setup was a sell M5 MAB that really liked except that it was a sell in what was still a bullish session after the morning bull spike.
Very happy with the execution as I waited for it to reach the 61.8 level, it just didn’t work out. Had I taken point A from the High then I might have passed and watched what happened when price reached the 12738.6 level.
From there it sold off strongly back down through the key hourly level of 12701.4 offering a good sell on the retrace back to it as shown by the arrow.
There was no clear buy signal to ride up the bull spike at 09:30 so I had to Be The Bear and wait!
When price reached the M5 Eq-zone mid-line at 12746.5 just below the Daily bull channel the price action shows signs of a short-term top.
I liked the micro-topping patten after the break below 12738.6 so entered a sell trade. This was quite aggessive after such a strong bull move but had seen enough of these to reason that probability was on the sell side, at least very short-term.
Eventually price moved down but I closed out early for +1.48R due to the M5 MAB at my target. Of course it then went on down afterwards to the key level at 12701.4
I’d already decided to buy at the 12701.4 level but ended up with a larger stop than I wanted. This buy was supported on the 5min (see below), 15min and hourly charts.
When price stalled I closed out for a 0.52R winner. As I type price is in a short-term range at the level I closed out.
Below is the 5 min chart with the arrows showing my trades entries and how the Price Action Grid structure supported them.
So overall I’m pleased with being +2.00R up from the morning session. I was helped by displaying our updated ‘Be The Bear’ page 🙂
A very tight range so far after yesterdays break back up above the daily Eq-Zone at 12577.5
Price is ranging around the current Golden Low-High, this zone is one to watch going forward. The idea is we learn when it is most effective in our trading decisions.
There will be days when it plays no part in them but there will be days when it offers great multiple R opportunities 🙂
We must continue to develop ‘Being The Bear’!
Took the H1 MAB sell at Yes Close and the 12542.7 level.
Closed out for a small winner which was a good call as price then went on to hit my stop.
Some BIG lessons today 🙂
On a range day like today when price has gone from the High down to the Low and is moving back up into the range ONLY take buy trades on pullbacks.
Do not take sells even though the setups are good structurally. It’s a probability game and some of the sells will work but today they were only brief pullbacks before the next leg up.
Did not get a very good entry, should have waited for it to reach the 12527.0 level. I still might have struggled to get the 2R but after moving from the High all the way down to the Low and back up it’s a range day.
1 winner, 2 losers, up +0.26R.
Waited patiently for this buy but I must admit to not having that feeling we speak about 🙁
There were no intraday key levels in play plus the RR zone when looking-left was not convincing. I entered with my stop below the 5 min channels but it wanted to do down to test the 12492.2 level.
I’ll admit to entering the trade probably because of the focus on the session’s Golden Zone and FOMO kicked in.
I would not take it again, a poor trade and the zone did not have good confluence.
So far price has been unable to break above the current Golden High-Low zone
Took an early sell on the 1 min chart but based on a Role-Reversal zone just above the 61.8 level of the session’s Golden High-Low best seen on the 5 min chart – below.
I didn’t max out the profit potential but happy with +2.40R.
The screenshot below from the 5 min shows clearly the RR zone, was almost stopped out but a 100% WTA.
July16th-20th 2018
Friday 20th
Once again, yer canna make this stuff up 🙂
This morning I finished of the update that will automatically display and update the session Golden Zone and left it running before going to mow the grass etc. for a few hours.
When I came back in I noticed the superb M5 MAB that formed within what was at the time a Golden High-Low. After price broke below the the PW High it retraced as shown with the following confluence :
- 61.8 level of the zone
- The PW High
- M5 MAB
- Other Grid structure not shown
This is yet another great example of how powerful this zone is and when it comes in to play like this some great multiple R trades are on offer.
I’d love to have been at my desk for this one, it was a 100% WTA for sure.
I hope this whets your appetite to use the new feature. It’s based soley on Grid structure removing all subjectivity as point A and B will always be either the session Low or High.
It is therefore a unique FIBCON and something we can all study and learn how to use it to maximum effect 🙂
Below is the same chart only this time the updated Golden High-Low zone is also shown below the earlier one. As either the low or high change so does the zone, the new feature will automatically do this for you.
Based on what I’ve seen so far this adds another great tool to our price action arsenal.
Thursday 19th
Wow, yer canna make this stuff up 🙂
At 7am price gapped up to the 5 min bear mid-channel as shown by the arrow. I then overlaid the FIB tool to see that it was also a very early Golden High-Low where price briefly pushed through the 61.8 level before reversing back down.
I spent yesterday updating the software to automate the detection and display of Golden High-Low’s and Golden Low-High’s after we’ve seen them regularly over the last several days.
Not that we needed any confirmation it was worth doing this but this morning shows how important this zone is and to automate the display of this throughout the session.
I will continue this today so that I can test it live starting tomorrow, I will therefore not be trading today.
Below is the same setup without Grid structure.
As I type price has continued to sell off down to the Daily bull channel and M5 Eq-Zone at 12738.6, how cool to be taking trades based on this unique FIBCON once we build it into our price action read and master it 🙂
Wednesday 18th
The earlier sell trade was NOT a juicy salmon as mentioned and I should not have taken it. However, it’s prompted me to ask myself what other clues were there in the price action that would have kept me in “Buy Mode” only.
And guess what?
There was a Grade A Golden Low-High and I misssed it!!
I did notice an earlier micro one but again, after the event. I have looked at automating detection of them but had put it on hold until we were really sure it was worth doing.
After today we’ve agreed this is an update that will benefit us all so that’s the plan 🙂
I just missed taking the M1 MAB after the bull spike above Yes High. I was waiting for a tiny wee bit more of a pullback – too fussy!!
I then entered a sell but this was NOT a juicy salmon, it was a tiddler that I should have left well alone 🙁
My entry was poor so I moved my stop above the bull channel for a -1.41R loss. I didn’t mark up the GZ correctly but it was still a poor trade!
After price eventually broke above the key level of 12577.5 yesterday afternoon/evening I was in buy mode. A clear overnight range had formed with its bottom being the H1 Eq-Zone at 12701.4
Whilst it wasn’t a FIBCON setup as such I decided if price came down to test it I’d buy. That’s what happened so I did 🙂
The trade worked out but I closed out early when it reached the Open+Yes Close+M5 MAB only to it go on and storm on up to Yes High. I was tempted to move my target up to just below Yes High but decided not to, of course that meant it would do exactly that 🙂
Very happy with the trade and a 100% WTA.
Below is the 15 min chart showing the range, the arrow shows where I bought just after the 7am open.
A great example of how the Price Action Grid guides us.
Tuesday 17th
I had to go and pick up the car along with a few other things at 10:30 after a mad morning session!
I returned home to price has continued to range whilst it struggles to hold above the D1 Eq-Zone boundary at 12577.5, the daily chart shows this clearly.
However, just after noon a juicy salmon came into view in the form of an M5 MAB as shown. A great example of no matter how difficult a session might be to read there is usually at least one really good setup. What we don’t know is when they will come along, hence the need to be Be The Bear when we are a able to watch the price action.
Wow!!
After nearly entering a sell trade at the break of 12556.2 price went down strongly. I then entered the M1 MAB after finding a GZ Micro Sell Setup. A loser 🙁
I then entered the M5 MAB, a loser 🙁
I then took the sell trade when price reached the Daily Eq-zone at 12577.5 + the H1 Bull Channel. I took a small winner.
I almost didn’t take the M1 MAB but talked myself into thinking price would continue down to Yes Low – Not Today!
I don’t think I would have taken the M1 MAB if I’d not had the early winner but I would have taken the M5 MAB. A real lesson in there’s never a dead cert!
At last!!
On occasions a good setup forms not long after the European open at 7am. I’ve often missed them due to routine or talking myself out of them but today I marked this up and really liked it!
The HH formed at exactly 7am so I put the FIB on with point A at the Low. The 61.8 was PERFECTLY confluent with the hourly Eq-Zone at 12556.2 and when looking-left on the 5 & 15 & hourly charts it was clearly a major level.
I therefore decided if price came down to it I would enter for quick trade since price tends to wait for the London open at 8am before making a major move – if it’s going to.
I had that feeling, “Whatever happens I’d take it again”. It did spike up and down for the first few candles after but then went on to reach my target 🙂
It has since sold off back down below the 61.8 and would probably have triggered my stop so VERY pleased on my entry etc.
Monday 16th
Arrghh!!!
I traded briefly this morning before I had to go out and take the car for its MOT, no trades were taken.
When I returned home I took a look at the charts and noticed price had just made a new session low. I passed on the M1 MAB at 12527.0 but spotted a much better value M5 MAB and marked it up as shown.
The Trade Tool was positioned at:
- The 61.8 level
- The M5 MAB
- The 5 min keyzone mid-line
- A project measured move
I waited patiently, however, the sound of rain on the window caused me to take a look. I so enjoyed seeing the rain I spent maybe 20 seconds looking out only to switch back to the chart and see that price had spiked up and was reversing right on my entry point.
I resisted chasing price as the value entry had gone and did not get a second bite at the cherry!! I’m pleased with the anticipation but SO frustrated at missing by seconds.
The good news is Elaine was also anticipating the exact same setup independently and took it resulting in a winner 🙂
So the rain shower cost me a decent 2R winner 🙁 but well done Elaine! It’s also a great example of how we should expect to be spotting the same setups.
Note: The measure move (aka. two legged move) is a common price action feature, that’s why the bssMMove script is in the favorites tab. It’s often a good idea to remove any wicks as shown.
July 9th-13th 2018
Friday 13th
A bullish start at 7am and also at 8am resulted in price testing the daily keyzone lower boundary at 12577.2 to form the current sesssion high.
Price sold off after failing to hold the level to produce a clear impulsive A-B leg. The GZ-RR zone was my preferred entry level but when price struggled to get back above:
- PW High
- Hourly keyzone boundary at 12556.2
- M1+M5 MA’s
I entered at the 38.2 level as shown.
It was a 100% WTA and on this rare occasion I entered earlier than planned.
Below is the 5 min chart, note how it was supportive of the trade entry at that level due to the bear channel.
Thursday 12th
I really liked this sell MAB as both the M15+H1 MA’s were in play.
I had a great entry as shown but closed out early, however, it was a 100% WTA and as per the trading plan I’m happy to take a small winner.
Two decent setups below that I didn’t take. Maybe I’m a little distracted due to the drama of last nights semi-final 🙁
Was VERY close to taking this but I talked myself out of this decent Sell FIBCON as price was reversing up off a daily bull channel. Price has since sold off down to the Open.
I passed on this very early M1 MAB just after 7am. Structurally it was good, the GZ-RR was excellent.
Wednesday 11th
After the early sell off price went into a range that was best avoided. I decided that if price broke below the bottom of the hourly keyzone at 12428.2 I’d consider a sell if the setup was good.
That finally happened at 14:00 so decided if price retraced into the GZ I take it. The 5 min keyzone looked the best at 12436.8
I did lower my target and trailed my stop to the original 2R level, it was at one point +4.80R but then a bull spike took me out for +1.87R.
Very pleased with the setup, very pleased that I waited patiently, a 100% WTA.
Price has since moved down and hit my 5R target 🙂
After the London open price sold off down to an area of SUPCON. I passed on the M1 MAB as I wanted price to ideally reach the 61.8 level at 12469.4
I was too fussy, structurally it was decent, the realistic target was the bull daily bull channel+hourly bull mid-channel.
Tuesday 10th
This is a great example of a Golden Low-High setup where point A is taken from the session Low and point B from the session High.
We’ve seen these in the past but now is the time to start looking for them. They occur regularly throughout the month, what we don’t know is the day and time. We need to make them part of our mindset and reasoning process during the session!
The sell off from the high retraced into the Golden Zone (point C) and was confluent with:
- The 61.8 level at 12571.3
- The Daily keyzone boundary at 12577.5
- Yes High
- The Open
- The hourly MA
This was a superb setup with multiple R potential as shown.
The very best ones usually have the Open in or close to the Golden Zone which makes sense from a structural POV.
Below is what the setup looked like on 1 min chart. The skill is entering a buy trade in real-time as close to point C as possible. Price bounced perfectly off the H1 MA and the Open before moving back up strongly.
In the past I’ve traded a few of these with some success, now is the time to master them. This one is exceptional and I wish I’d been at my desk.
The screenshot shows two sell trades, one loser, one winner.
Point A was taken from Yes High which resulted in the 61.8 level being confluent with the PW High+top of the hourly keyzone at 12556.2
FOMO meant I took the early entry and ended up moving my stop to cover the PW High. I was stopped out by 0.1 of a pip!!!!
I quickly reassessed the setup and entered again, this was the ONLY entry I should have waited for.
I was really pleased with the quality of the setup and my anticipation so 100% WTA.
However, I moved my target to just above the Low. It looked good then reversed, I rode out the ups and downs only to be stopped out for a +0.64R winner.
So, great setup as shown but due to FOMO, moving my stop and being too aggressive with my target I’m net down -0.87R.
Monday 9th
I’ve looked at the Grid structure and can clearly see that had I paid more attention to the 5 min chart and ‘Looked-Left’ I might well have reasoned it was better value to wait for price to reach the 12542.7 level.
Always easy afterwards but I must admit I’ve been working on the blog and allowed myself to become distracted thus resulting in me not reasoning the setup out correctly.
Once again, total concentration is required!!!
A Golden High-Low….
If you take point A from the High the 61.8 is perfectly confluent with the top of the 5 min keyzone at 12542.7, this is something we’ve called a Golden High-Low in the past.
Price has broken below the hourly bear channel so the 2R would come in had I used the high as point A and entered when price tested the 61.8 level.
Took the M15 MAB but did not work out.
I almost talked myself out of it because price had just broken back above the hourly bear channel.
The GZ-RR was decent but overall I would pass on this next time. Price has since gone on to test the channel then entered a short term range.
The 15 min chart shows how price has bounced strongly up off the Open and hourly bull channel.
I waited patiently for a decent setup and entered the sell but I did not press the Ctrl-E correctly. In the moments after whilst I was checking if it was delayed for some reason price moved down and the value was gone.
It went on to be a winner but I’m pleased that I was The Bear and waited for it to form. I felt price might still want to test the Open/Low and hourly bull channel.
This played out so it’s a 100% WTA, just need to make sure I press the Ctrl-E correctly.
July 2nd-6th 2018
Friday 6th
08:43
GZ M5 Sell MAB
Attended the ‘Red-Flag’ event yesterday where Mark Carney was speaking. Interesting few hours, I canna get over we’re the same age 🙂
Had planned to trade but it’s not a good fit as we have to focus on the website plus ANOTHER sell MAB has formed whilst I was away from my desk so I guess my routine is not tuned in this morning!!!
When the updated LL is used it results in the GZ-RR zone shifting down as shown. It resulted in a decent M5 MAB.
The 5 min chart is hugely supportive of this sell also, price reversed perfectly at the top of the keyzone plus a bear channel boundary.
Well done Alex for taking this one and achieving 3R 🙂
Once again – it’s SO easy after the event but I like to think had I been sat and my desk and in the moment I’d have taken at least one of the 3 setups shown below.
08:43
GZ M5 Sell MAB
Attended the ‘Red-Flag’ event yesterday where Mark Carney was speaking. Interesting few hours, I canna get over we’re the same age 🙂
Had planned to trade but it’s not a good fit as we have to focus on the website plus ANOTHER sell MAB has formed whilst I was away from my desk so I guess my routine is not tuned in this morning!!!
When the updated LL is used it results in the GZ-RR zone shifting down as shown. It resulted in a decent M5 MAB.
The 5 min chart is hugely supportive of this sell also, price reversed perfectly at the top of the keyzone plus a bear channel boundary.
Well done Alex for taking this one and achieving 3R 🙂
Once again – it’s SO easy after the event but I like to think had I been sat and my desk and in the moment I’d have taken at least one of the 3 setups shown below.
08:25
GZ M1 Sell MAB
Was not at my desk at the open and have just come to see a decent M1 MAB though it would have meant selling into an area of SUPCON.
The 15 min chart shows how key the 12492.2 mid-line level was in this sell setup when you look-left.
With point A taken from Yes High the GZ-RR zone is excellent!!
07:15
GZ M1 Buy MAB
Just arrived at my desk to see one of the earliest M1 MAB’s for a while. It formed immediately at the 7am open due to the gap up that produced the HH right at the hourly bear channel.
The GZ-RR zone is very clear and is just above the bottom of the 5 min keyzone.
Price has since sold off back down to Yes High but a great setup for those at their desk for the 7am open.
Tuesday 3rd
15:49
GZ M5 Sell MAB
Just been watching the 1st half of Sweden-Switzerland and thought I’d take a look at the price action only to see yet another decent Golden Zone M5 Sell MAB.
This followed on from the earlier one I mentioned at 15:12.
It’s a great example of how a FIBCON or MAB may not look that good in terms of the impulsive A-B leg followed by the corrective B-C leg but so long as you accurately identify point A and use the Lower-Low then see what happens at point C.
We have to ‘Be The Bear’ and wait patiently for price to reach the Golden Zone and resist getting drawn into low probability, low value trade entries.
15:12
GZ M5 Sell MAB
Just came back in to see price continuing to pull back and in doing so form a decent M5 Sell MAB.
Once again the Golden Zone contains the Role-Reversal (RR) zone – Look-Left.
The setup is also shown on the 5 min chart, note how the 5 min channels capture the main price movements from point A to the LL.
13:49
Bulls in Control So Far
I’ve just returned home to see that the bulls have so far been in control. Price is currently pulling back from the session high after reaching an hourly bear channel and a daily bull channel.
08:10
GZ M5 Sell MAB
Was not at my desk at the London open but have just noticed an M5 MAB formed right in the GZ.
My rule is to not trade the first few minutes after the open due to spikes etc. but structurally this was a good setup and conformed to our trading edge.
Look-Left to see where price gapped up at the 7am open before it retraced. Not perfect due to gaps but functioned as a role-reversal zone.
07:26
Support found at Monthly MA
Morning All!
The daily chart shows that price has found support and moved back up off the monthly MA from within the daily key zone over the last few days.
Today has started in bullish mode, will price continue to move back up or will the bears step back in ???
As Price Action traders we must be ready for both 🙂
Monday 2nd
16:20
GZ M1 Sell FIBCON
Just spotted a GZ M1 Sell FIBCON after price failed to hold above the Open.
13:49
GZ M1 Sell FIBCON
Just missed this superb GZ M1 FIBCON 🙁
Once again, ‘Look-Left’ to see the role-reversal zone within the Golden Zone!
Also note the hourly bear channel functioned as a role-reversal level providing further confluence.
We sure do need to ‘Be The Bear’ but it’s worth it!
11:52
Failed GZ M5 Buy MAB
Not trading at present as we’re working on the blog updates but I did notice this M5 MAB that looked a good setup as shown by the Golden Zone.
However, on this occasion it failed though lower down it did form a weak M15 MAB that briefly moved up before also failing.
Price eventually moved down to Yes Low before moving back up strongly to the Open/Yes Close.
08:00
GZ M1 Sell FIBCON
I took an M1 sell FIBCON but closed out for break even. Price was testing both bull and bear daily channels so when the move back down stalled I closed out.
The bull spike at 8am would have taken me out as shown.
The screenshot below shows that price formed a Golden Zone M5 MAB when point A is taken from Yes Low.
Not an easy trade to take as the MAB took place immediately after the London open, however, structurally it is good with a role-reversal zone falling within the Golden Zone (Look-Left 🙂 ).
29th Jan-2nd Feb 2018
Friday 26th Jan 2018
Below are two excerpts from last Fridays commentary. The first one contains a short piece of commentary, the second shows a live trade. Both highlight how key the Price Action Grid is to trade setups.
A GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Setup.
If the 50-61.8 zone on this setup is projected into the future it’s also the one in play in the sell MAB setup below.
Superb Fibonacci Symmetry!
A GZ M1+M5 Sell MAB setup.