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Wed 23 Jan 19
Although this had an unconventional set-up, I really liked the confluence of the H1 EQZ midline, the 61 Fib level and the touch of the 5min ema.
I set my Profit Target to 3R, at the session High, and set a Lock in Profit around the +2R level to cover myself. My thinking was that should price break through the H1 Bear Channel, the next target would be the High, or the area around the 11100 level.
As price began to look bearish and broke down through the H1 EQZ midline, I looked for the first chance at exiting at break even and took it.
As I write this, price is on the rise again! This might have been a case of a trade that was best left alone to play itself out.
Good to see price interacting this the key levels I adjusted last week. This gives further confirmation that this level is one to be watching.
Tue 22 Jan 19
Another 15min MAB just passed, that I really should have gone for!
The set up looked good, there was great confluence with the D1 EQZ, H1 Bull and Bear Channels, 15min ema and the 5min ema coming down from above to add to the resistance.
I had the trade tool set up and ready to go, but chickened out when looking at the M5 timeframe, where a larger set up with Point A at the open was a possibility, however it did not have the confluence within the GZ like this set up had.
I went against my gut and let this one pass by!
Did not take these trades, as they were close to the higher timeframe Key Structure, and I wasn’t sure how price was going to interact with it.
The set ups were both clear and would otherwise been good trades.
I was wrong about the SUPCON at the D1 EQZ I mentioned yesterday, price bust through those levels with relative ease! There’s now support at the H1 EQZ midline which is where the best fit 61.8 Fib level lies. There was the possibility for a trade, but I just wasnt sure so left it alone.
Will price turn around now, or continue its descent? The 11000 level looks like a good target, and there’s some good Role Reversal to support it! Until price tells me otherwise and starts to break through resistance levels, I think I’m going to be in a bearish mindset today, looking for sells.
Mon 21 Jan 19
Half an hour nervously sitting on my hands and trying my best not to tamper with the trade paid off with a winner.
After the previous 15min MAB (which daxtrader has pointed out above), I was confident that the 15min ema was the one to be watching. When the opportunity came up for a 15min MAB confluence with the D1 Bear Channel, I had to take it!
There was a smaller set-up during the B-C leg of this trade, where price encountered some resistance at a Fib level (shown in the screenshot below), but I resisted the urge to take this trade as it was low probability.
I did move my Stop Loss up to above the 1hour ema halfway through this trade, as further protection from any price spikes, however this wasn’t necessary in the end, and could have resulted in a bigger loss had price not gone my way!
Also of note, is the intersection of the M5 Bull and Bear Channels, which added another layer of confluence to this trade.
I didn’t enter either of these trades, as there was no confluence with a moving average.
The second trade might have been a bit dodgy, buying up into the D1 Bear Channel.
Thu 17 Jan 19
Just come back to the computer after a lunch break to see that price ended up doing what I had predicted earlier with a short, sharp drop down to touch the 61 Fib level pip-perfectly before moving back up.
I’m not sure I would have tried, or even been able, to trade this had I been at the computer, as it came and went so quickly, and there was a strong bearish move to reach that level which would have probably put me off.
This was a bad, low probability trade with no good confluence of key structure, that I was drawn into after being annoyed at myself for passing on the 5min MAB. I passed on the 5min MAB expecting price to fall closer to the 10865 level and fulfill the larger FibCon set up.
However, with the 5min and 15min ema, the H1 EQZ and good ‘Look Left’ Role Reversal within the Daily Hi-Lo GZ, the 5min MAB was definitely the better trade to take. The Fib tool for this trade was drawn with point A at the 10865 level and point B at the Higher High.
Another example of the kind of trades that I need to cut out and prevent damaging my results; emotionally reactive, trying to be clever.
I made two mistakes here, and missed out on what could had ended up being a good +3R trade.
The above screenshot shows how I was positioned for the trade. I was looking for price to reach the top of the Golden Zone at the 61 Fib level, where there was a confluence of the 1min and 5min moving averages and a Role Reversal level created by point C of the previous trade.
The first mistake was being too fussy about my entry. Taking the trade at the 50 Fib level with the 10865 Key level as confluence would have seen at least a +2R profit.
The second mistake is shown in the screenshot below. Adjusting point A of the setup down from the H1 EQZ at 10878 to the beginning of the impulsive move give a Golden Zone with the 61 Fib level right at the point where my entry should have been!
I didn’t enter this trade, as price was coming down off the Hi-Lo GZ 61 Fib level and 4hour ema, and would have to punch through the H1 EQZ at 10878 to hit the 2R profit target.
However, a FibCon was in play here, with confluence from the M5 Bull Channel. The M5 Bear Channel, the 10865 Key level (which I defined on the Daily timeframe using price action from way back in 2015) and the 5min ema coming up from below would have given some support to place the Stop Loss behind.
If I had entered this trade, I’d have most likely taken profits at the 1R level just below the H1 EQZ at 10878, however as you can see, it would have eventually reached the +2R profit target.
Wed 16 Jan 19
Entered at the 15min ema, with M5 EQZ, 10900 level, 5min ema and 1hour ema as support for the Stop Loss.
Probably should have given move room for movement of price beneath the 1hour ema.
Tue 15 Jan 19
4hour MAB, with profits taken below Key Structure and within the 50% of the Inner-Fib.
Confluence for the trade came from the 4hour ema, Open, Yes. Close, Low and 10865 key level.
