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Thu 10 Jan 19

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Fri 11 Jan >>

11:20

M1 FibCon | Sell

I didn’t take this trade as I didn’t feel there was enough confluence at the FibCon, and no moving average present.

I thought it was interesting how price interacted with the RR/ resistive level that I had pulled across from previous price action.

09:37

M1 5min MAB | Buy

I didn’t end up entering this trade, as price looked a bit choppy, I was hesistant, and so missed the entry whilst price was in my specified entry zone.

The confluence of the GZ, PW High, short term channel and 5min ema should have been enough for me to take the entry!

Wed 09 Jan 19

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<< Tue 08 Jan

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Thu 10 Jan >>

14:55

M1 FibCon | Sell

12:49

M1 1min MAB | Buy | +2.18R

Price moved on up to create the Higher High that I was looking for, after a very convincing impulsive move through the D1 Channel midline.

The midline, combined with the 1min ema and a RR support level gave me enough confidence to enter the trade within the GZ. I did not get as good an entry as I would have liked, but it was good enough, and price hit the 2R target fairly quickly.

12:37

M1 5min MAB | Buy

I didn’t enter this trade, as I didn’t believe there was a Higher High in context, and the D1 Bull Channel midline looked resistive.

However, the set-up taken on it’s own was a good one, and there was good support for the Entry at Yes. High and the H1 Bull Channel midline.

09:50

M1 failed 5min MAB | Buy | -0.91R

08:00

H4 Analysis and Predictions

Price has reached, and seems to have found resistance, at the D1 EQZ midline and channel boundary which seems to have been resistive (save for a few jumps above it) going back at least as far as mid-October 2018.

At this point, it will begin to become clear whether or not my predictions are correct!

Tue 08 Jan 19

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<< Fri 04 Jan

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Wed 09 Jan >>

10:50

M1 Daily MAB | Sell | -1.48R

A sharp spike took my out for ~0.5R more than my risk.

I was confident with this trade as it was setting up, and liked the confluence of the Daily ema and D1 Bull Channel at the 61 Fib level.

10:22

M1 FibCon | Sell

Did not take as I was waiting for the higher timeframe set up, with a sell trade at the D1 Bull Channel and Daily ema.

08:43

M1 Daily MAB | Buy

I missed this one, as I was concentrating too much on whether or not the 1hour MAB at the Lo-Hi GZ would be a good trade. By the time I had decided that it might not be the best set-up, this one had come and gone.

Fri 04 Jan 19

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Tue 08 Jan >>

16:12

M1 Daily MAB | Sell | -1.00R

I entered this trade and walked away to let it run it’s course.

One of two things would have saved this trade. Either a tighter Stop Loss, meaning my 2R target would have been above the H1 EQZ, or moving my profit target above the H1 EQZ.

I expected the Daily ema to hold, and for price to move down to at least the 15min ema. This did not happen however, perhaps because it was the end of the day and volume dropped. A disappointing end to a drawn out trade.

10:36

M1 5min MAB | Buy | +0.07R

The market gave me another chance at the 5min MAB, and I had been waiting patiently.

I entered the trade at the level I wanted, but price looked indecisive and struggled to break through the M5 EQZ. At this point I began marking up the higher timeframe 15min MAB that could be forming. As price broke down through Yes. High and the H1 EQZ midline, I looked for an exit, and ended up breaking even.

Moments after exiting the trade, price started to climb again, eventually hitting my +2R Profit Target! This was a trade that I should have walked away from once I had got my entry.

10:10

M1 5min MAB | Buy

Price didn’t reach the zone I was looking at for Entry.

09:02

M1 1min MAB | Buy

A perfect set-up, with price moving impulsively off the D1 Channels, retracing to the GZ and bouncing off the 1min, 5min and 4hour ema, and D1 EQZ.

I’m annoyed that I didn’t take this trade. I had it marked up in advance, but got distracted ‘only doing something quickly’ on the blog, an unforgiveable way to miss a trade!

08:01

M1 1min MAB | Buy

I wasn’t at my desk for this one.

Thu 03 Jan 19

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Fri 04 Jan >>

17:00

End of Day Review | -1.09R

2 trades taken. 1 win (16:29), 1 loss (09:24).

3 trades Anticipated but not taken. (08:43, 10:18, 16:19)

The loss at 09:24 was a Would Take Again trade. It has a good set-up and good confluence for the entry. The one thing wrong with trade was that I was buying up into a higher timeframe moving average in the 1hour ema.

The winner at 16:29 on another day might have hit the +2R target. The key short-term levels I defined for this trade played a big role, and ultimately I should have used these levels and settled for +1.5R profit when it was on the table. It was not because of greed that I held onto the trade as it has been in the past, but because I believed price had enough momentum to move up to my target. This ended up playing out as expected, however price made an unexpected bearish move first which could have taken out my Stop Loss for -1R if I had not moved it. In this instance, I believe moving my Stop Loss to breakeven was for the best, when price looked like it was going to reach my profit target.

The three trades I did not take were all passed over because price did not reach the zone that I had marked up for Entry. I believe this was a good choice as I should only be taking trades that fit the predefined ABC pattern I am looking for.

16:29

M1 FibCon | Buy | +0.07R

The market gave me another opportunity at entry, and I took it. An immediate turnaround of price saw me +1.5R in the green at one stage, right at the predefined Role-Reversal level. However, I was anticipating a move higher, up to the 15min ema and GZ, so I hung onto the trade, with my Stop now placed just above my entry at the 10423 level.

Moving the Stop could have been a very good, or very bad thing.

In the image below, you can see how price went on to interact with the defined Role-Reversal levels, which I used to place my Stop Loss (and should have used as my exit point).

Price touched the RR level, and this may have triggered my Stop Loss had I left it in place, as I had positioned it tight to the level. If my Stop Loss had not triggered, I would have netted +2R, and the rest, as price shot up through the H1 Channels, 15min ema and FibCon.

With very fine margins for the win or the loss, I think the break even I achieved with this trade was probably the fair result!

I SHOULD have exited the trade at the defined RR level and taken +1.5R when it was available.

16:19

M1 FibCon | Buy

Anticpated well in advance, looking for a FibCon at the 10423 level before moving up to meet the 15min ema in the GZ.

The middle Role-Reversal level held, meaning price did not make it into the GZ and no trade was taken.

10:18

M1 FibCon | Sell

I marked this trade up in advance, but was waiting for confluence with the 5min moving average before taking the trade. +2R would have been achieved within the Inner-Fib.

09:24

M1 failed 1min MAB | Buy | -1.16R

A good impulsive move to set the trade up, and retrace to an area with D1 EQZ and D1 Bear Channel in confluence. Stop place behind the 15min and 5min moving averages for support.

Perhaps I should have left this trade alone for the same reasons as the last one; risky trading up into the 1hour and 4hour ema.

08:43

M1 5min MAB | Buy

I felt that buying up into the 1hour ema was risking after price had just bounced off it. I know there would be some support from the D1 Bull Channel, 5min ema and 10500 level, however price did not dip very deep into the GZ and so I left this trade unentered.

I drew the short term channel after the trade had passed. If I had had this in place, the extra level of confluence might have encouraged me to enter the trade, however I was still looking for a deeper push into the GZ, closer to the D1 Bull Channel.

Wed 02 Jan 19

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<< Thu 27 Dec

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Thu 03 Jan >>

19:00

End of Day Review

No trades taken.

2 trades Anticipated but not taken. 08:50, 18:17

2 trades marked up after the fact. 09:16, 09:42

Higher Timeframe Analysis and Predictions

Price has found support at a level last seen around December of 2016, seen in the first image of the Monthly timeframe. This point seems to be where the Head & Shoulders pattern started, which may in itself be the Head of a larger H&S.

The second image, of the H4 timeframe, shows the possibility for an Inverse Head & Shoulders at the Supportive levels, with the result being a climb in price towards the Weekly and Monthly moving averages and an area of Role Reversal at the level of the GZ.

Tomorrow we may see interaction with the Daily moving average and strong Resistance at the D1 EQZ (10808) and 10800 levels.

MN

H4

18:17

M1 FibCon + Yes. High | Buy

Trading into the H1 EQZ level felt risky and so I backed away from entering here. A confluence of two Fib levels here at Yes. High with clear Role Reversal level, after finding Support at the H1 Bull Channel.

09:42

M1 5min MAB | Buy

Another 5min MAB, where price did not quite touch the 5min ema before changing direction.

I was wary of trading back up into the 15min ema, however the 15min MAB had no confluence with any Fib levels and price looked to be moving back up to the D1 Channels and EQZ.

Had the 5min ema been inside the GZ I think I would have entered this trade, with the 2R level just below the 15min ema just incase the moving average turned price around.

09:16

M1 1min MAB | Buy

A perfect 1min MAB at the 61.8 Fib level.

The Higher High of this move was at the 61.8 Fib level of a Bearish ABC, so I was wary of price moving back down to Yesterday’s Low and the 10423 key level and did not enter this trade.

08:50

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Price was looking bearish after interaction with the D1 EQZ and D1 Bull and Bear Channel, so I was looking for a sell trade.

I passed on the lower probability 1min MAB, waiting for the 5min MAB at the GZ. The trade tool was set up as shown, but price did not quite move high enough to touch the 5min ema, where I was looking for Entry, and so no trade was taken.

Mon 17 Dec 2018

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<< Wed 12 Dec

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Tues 18 Dec >>

16:51

M1 FibCon into 5min MAB | Sell then Buy

I had my trade tool ready for both of these trades, having marked up the 5min MAB well in advance. Unfortunately, price didn’t quite reach the level I was looking for and I missed both.

12:48

Looking left to the beginning of the days chart, this level also played a role.

12:38

M1 potential 5min MAB | Sell

A confluence of channels and key levels, with the 5min ema passing through.

There was a lot of resistance at the level marked in this screenshot with a thin black line 10820.