First and last trade of the day. I really liked the setup for this trade, but a quick bullish move took me out for -1.34R!
I picked this out on the M15 timeframe. A bearish move to create a Lower Low and the day’s Low, with the 61 Fib retracement sitting inside the Hi-Lo GZ with the 15min ema.
Price has since moved down to hit my +2R target.
Is there something I missed that caused price to spike up to the 1hour ema, or is this just part of a ranging day?
Very tempted by this one. The reason I didn’t take this, was because I would be selling down into the level I previously bought at, the FibCon, 11550 level and Daily EQZ midline.
Price turned at 16:00 after touching the 5min ema.
I noticed and marked up this FibCon on the M15 timeframe. It was inside the Daily Lo-Hi GZ, and the 61Fib fell right on the 11550 level, with the Daily EQZ midline just below it for support.
Price had to push through the Hourly and Daily ema to find this level, which made me wary, but I liked the way price reacted to touching the 11550/61Fib level and so entered the trade.
I marked up the Inner-Fib GZ, and brought my 2R target down just slightly to sit inside the GZ. This turned out to be a very good decision as price turned around at this point and would not have hit my original 2R target!
When price was at the Daily ema and Yes. High, I almost closed the trade for around +1.5R, however I decided to let it play out. By this point I had moved my Stop Loss to break even so was not worrying about any losses.
I got suckered into this buy trade, when I should have been in Bear mode with price coming down from the high, almost touching the 11693 target.
My mistake was coming back after an afternoon break, and not spending enough time on all timeframes, marking movements up and getting back into the flow of the market.
If the 5min ema was closer to price and inside the GZ, I would have taken this trade.
Impatient and should have waited to bring in the +2R profit.
I was worried that price wouldn’t break the M5 EQZ border, and wanted to cover my previous loss. Just before I exited the trade, there was a red candle, and a small gap down, and I panicked and closed the trade.
A little frustrating! I wanted my 2R Profit Target above the 11600 level and so needed a tight Stop Loss. A couple of pips more and I might’ve have come out of this with a good profit!
5min MAB + FibCon with a tight stop and +2R within 50% of the Inner-FibCon.
I did not take this because I have not got into the flow of the market yet this morning, and the strong Bearish candle put me off.
I got drawn into this, when I shouldn’t have really been trading. I liked the impulsive Bull move and the Higher High, but things are choppy and I should have left this alone.
Potential 2R trade. I didn’t enter the market as I don’t like how rangey and choppy price has been this afternoon.
I wanted a stronger move through the D1 Bull Channel, where I decided I would then move my Stop Loss to break even. The Bullish candles after the touch of the Bull Channel made me feel uncomfortable and I looked for an exit.
I should have taken the 5min MAB that formed, especially as I was watching it, and wary that price would target it. I think I was just relieved to be out of what I saw as I losing trade, and didn’t get my focus back quickly enough to get a good entry of the 5min MAB.
I closed this one out due to impatience, when I should have left it and let it achieve the +2R target.
Potential +2R with this trade. I saw the setup, liked where the GZ sat at Yes. High and the top of the M5 EQZ, but thought there might be a deeper move to the D1 Bull Channel so didn’t enter the trade.
Had I not closed out on the last trade, I would have easily brought in my +2R target and then some if I’d been more ambitious with the Profit Target!
I entered the market at the Supporting Confluence of the:
I had drawn up the Inner-FibCon and this would have helped me to achieve +1R, however I held onto the trade believing it would push higher after coming off the support levels.
Price came down off the D1 Bull Channel stronger than expected, and I quickly closed out for +0.14R.
I should have trusted my instinct that price was going to move higher after the SupCon bounce.
The chance for the 15min MAB came around again, and I took it again. This time it played out as expected. I had my Profit Target just inside the Inner-FibCon GZ and just above the 11259 level.
After doing well not to have any losses getting drawn into the 1min and 5min MABs, I felt that this 15min MAB was the one to be taking. There was confluence between the 61 Fib level and the H1 Bear Channel, and a roughly drawn short-term keyzone seemed to be in play, however the market had other ideas!
I got a decent entry, and marked up the Inner-FibCon, with my 2R above the 61 Fib level, but price turned at the D1 EQZ midline and I exited the trade with a minor profit.
Came back to my computer at half past one, and saw this 1min MAB just as it was touching the 1min ema.
I entered a sell trade, but then quickly second-guessed myself and closed the trade as I felt I needed to give myself more time to read the price action before getting into a trade, and there looked to by higher timeframe MABs forming.
Just as I closed the trade, the long bear candle formed, but I am happy with the reasoning behind closing the trade, and shouldn’t be entering trades without first monitoring the different timeframes.
Trust in the Inner-FibCon would’ve brought me in +1.7-2R, however I stand by my reasoning to exit the trade when I did.
At first I had my Profit Target just inside the Inner-FibCon GZ, underneath the 4hour ema.
When price stalled at the 11300 level, previous price action showed an area of Role Reversal, and so I closed the trade for a +1.06R profit.
I’m please with my decisiveness in these last two trades, the markup and management of the trade when I felt it was time to exit the market.
I also overcame my negative emotions at the beginning of the day and am now in profit, which is an important step for me where I would usually let the losses effect my later trades.
The wicky and uncertain candles leading up to the 12:00 candle made me think that there was a chance of price turning. I was tempted by a trade with a tight stop at the M5 EQZ border (11310.1) which was also the 50% FibCon level.
I was patient and held off taking the trade, but was interested in the price action that occured at the turn of the hour.
You can see here that I had entered into an M15 MAB trade, and had been marking up the Inner-FibCons.
SUPCON between:
I also made a note of movement with bbqtrader’s trade idea in mind, which he mentioned yesterday. Marked by the black line just above the D1 EQZ midline.
Is this essentially an inverse head and shoulders?
I’ve been expecting a move up to the Daily ema, with the GZ being a good Role Reversal zone, but with each rejection by the RESCON, it is looking more and more unlikely to happen.
This morning’s attempt at breaking the RESCON was slap bang in the intersection of the Daily Channels. This has seemed to have some effect, sending price down with strength, as shown in my previous blog entry at 08:25 today.
At the moment I’m unclear whether to be in a Bullish or Bearish mindset.
Price seems to be playing around the 11259 level, which has been drawn using the Weekly timeframe and then finessed on the H4 timeframe.
My head isn’t feeling clear this morning, and it’s showing in my first few trades – reckless and impatient.
The 5min MAB (08:06) was a case of me trying to be too clever. I had alrwady marked up the 15min MAB, and thought I might squeeze 1R out of a small retracement when price met the 5min ema. WNTA.
The 15min MAB (08:14), I had anticipated and marked up beforehand. A strong spike down in price meant my entry was very close to my Stop Loss.
I haven’t done my ‘morning thoughts’ yet today, which has perhaps led to this bad read in price action.
Time to sit back a while, gather myself and start again.
Update on the previous trade.
A wider stop would not have helped, and this just adds to the fact that I should have closed out at the H1 Bull Channel, confluent with a FibCon.
A mistake to take a Sell trade in a Bullish market, but I’d identified the 11937.9 level earlier, and I was looking for a place where price would stop climbing and begin to retrace.
A wider Stop might have kept me in this trade, I wouldn’t be surprised if price hung around at this level for a while longer before retracing the the Lo-Hi GZ area.
I will update later to see whether a wider Stop Loss would have made for a winning trade.
A loss to start the morning, I think my read was almost right, I just didn’t account for the strength of the move back towards the Open. I knew that there would be a push towards it, but I thought that my Stop Loss gave enough space for movement.
My Entry was at the D1 EQZ midline and 4hour ema, with the 5min ema and Open as cover for my Stop Loss.
(09:00) Update: The mistake I made with this trade was completely missing the 15min ema at the Open. The best entry for this trade was taken by bbqtrader at 08:16.
I start today with the same sentiments as Friday, and expect another day of price rising towards the Daily ema, with the 11397.9 D1 EQZ level as a target for now.
I had been expecting this since the beginning of the day, so couldn’t talk myself out of taking it.
I was a bit impatient and could have waited for a better entry, but I’m happy with what I got.
I marked up the Inner-FibCon, and brought my Profit Target just below the D1 EQZ level at 11104. I was expecting price to push just that little bit higher and touch the 5min ema and/or the D1 EQZ, but it didn’t quite make it. This also meant I didn’t take the FibCon trade that presented itself.
I should have trusted the FibCon levels and based my Profit Target and my entry to a second trade on this level.
As price started to fall, I closed out the trade for an almost +1R profit.
This is so typical of my last few weeks. Missed a great trade through hesitation, then get drawn into a losing trade soon after, trying to be more decisive.
I was anticipating a move down to the support structure at Yesterday’s Low.
I did everything right here. Passed on two lower timeframe and lower probability trades, marked up the 15min MAB early and it was at the Hi-Lo GZ 61.8 level.
Once again I didn’t pull the trigger. I SHOULD be taking these trades.
I ended up passing on both of these set-ups, as I felt uncomfortable selling into the Support levels.
I am now looking at the 15min MAB at the Hi-Lo GZ.
Could this RESCON be coming into play again today, with another 4hour MAB?
As the Channels start to ‘split’ apart, the RESCON will become less resistive, however, and there is a Daily MAB in play, so I will have to be wary of price breaking through this resistance too easily.
A day of Bullish Buy trades on the forecast for today again I think!
(08:20) Update: A Bearish spike has just occurred, are we looking at a Double Bottom at Yes. Low forming?
Another 5min MAB with at least +1R on the table. Had I taken this, I would have probably closed out before the 11300 level.
Sat there with the trade tool, but didn’t take the trade as it just did not feel right.
There wasn’t a good place to put my SL without it being far away from the entry, and I didn’t feel the profit target was within a good range for +2R.
Marked it up as price found resistance at the bottom of the M5 EQZ. I was hoping for a touch of the 4hour ema before coming back down, and I was ready to sell down to the 5min ema. The 4hour MAB didn’t reach the level I wanted, but I was ready for the 5min MAB.
I found a good place for the Stop Loss, and I think I got a decent entry at the H1 EQZ border.
I was tempted by this, but did not take it as it would mean selling down into the 15min MAB. Possibly could’ve squeezed some profit it from it, but glad that I held off.
Time for some food now, I might be back in an hour or so for some more trading if my mind is clear and my attention up to scratch!
I chose greed at first, but as price started to turn I started feeling anxious, which is a good sign that I need to be out of the trade.
I think price has found its retracement level and will begin to turn now. The Low of the retracement was at 11:30, which may or may not be a notable candle.
I am happy with my entry and the way I managed this trade, although perhaps I should have taken the +2R the first time I had the opportunity and not let my greed get the better of me for ten minutes.
I sold into a trade at the RESCON, and it is currently hanging around the 5min ema.
My greed is telling me to look for a move down to the H1 EQZ midline.
My sensible side is telling me to take profits at the 5min ema in case of a 5min MAB.
If only I had been more patient and managed my emotions better, I would have acheived the +2R target of this trade. Instead, I came away with a -0.40R loss.
Ten minutes of impatience and panic.
I was looking for a buy trade, knowing that price was on its way up to the RESCON.
The first trade (below, 09:15) was a bad trade, and I took it because I was impatient and worried that price would continue rising without much retracement. Would Not Take Again.
The second trade (above, 09:22) was a better trade, with the Hourly Bull and Bear Channels as support between my entry and Stop Loss. However, as price dropped near the 1hour ema I panicked thinking price was headed for the 5min or 15min ema, and so I closed the trade for a -0.40R loss. Had I been more patient, I could have taken some profit from this trade.
I should not have taken either of these trades, and been more patient for the higher probability set-ups.
15 minutes on from noting that the price would be Bullish, and that I would be looking for buy trades, what do you think I did?
I sold at the 1hour ema, with the Hourly Bull and Bear Channels as resistance, and a profit target that was just above the 1min ema, as I was expecting a retracement to that level.
As I was looking for buy trades, I saw this late and entered the market without much planning. I am not suprised this lost.
I’ve also got an earlier 1min MAB marked up, which I missed because I was waiting for a deeper retracement to the 5min MAB.
It’s looking like we’re going to see a retracement in price today, and possibly the next few days. The Fib tool lines up with the previous SUPCON, and the 4hour ema is working it’s way down to meet price coming up.
There is also a Daily MAB in play, but I don’t think that’s something to worry about today.
I will wait to see how price start to move this morning, but I am expecting to take more buy trades today as the MAB sets itself up.
I was feeling confident with this one, and now that I’ve closed it, I wish I’d let it play out for a bit longer. However, I’m happy with the set-up, entry, and management of the live trade with a small profit.
I was already wary of the bounce off the 5min ema, and some resistance near the 11300 level, and closed the trade after a Gap up, and a full Bull candle, which may be a sign of price starting to rise again.
I will now be on the lookout for that 1hour MAB that I mentioned earlier.
I feel much better about the set-up of this trade than my previous one at the 5min ema.
It’s obvious now that this was the better trade, and I should have noticed and marked this up before entering into the 5min MAB.
I hope I am not saying exactly the same thing in an hour, when price moves up further for a 1hour MAB instead….
Here’s that bad trade that was just waiting to happen.
I’d spotted a couple of set-ups earlier on but didn’t enter the trade. Eventually I got frustrated with letting things go, and entered a poor trade.
I think maybe I should walk away now, because I’m starting to do stupid things.
Que sera sera.
I will have to find something better to sacrifice next time around.
The reason this trade failed was a bad entry. If I had been a bit more patient, I could have almost halved the size of my stop and brought in+2R well below the 11300 level.
I’m happy with my read, markup and patience for price to reach the SUPCON, but I just needed that little bit extra before I pulled the trigger.
Things aren’t looking good at the moment, but I was expecting another test of the SUPCON.
At the moment I am sitting on my hands, giving the trade time and space to play out, and praying to the DAX gods, but I’m not feeling good about this one.
A decent set-up, but I failed to give respect to the 5min ema, at a point of known recent resistance.
