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Mon 22 Oct 2018

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Tues 23 Oct >>

15:48

M1 failed 5min MAB | Sell | -1.01R

Not a very clear set-up, a tight Stop Loss and a Fib tool that I had to force to fit the price action.

Entrywas at the D1 EQZ midline, with that and Yes. Close as resistance.

15:03

M1 1min MAB | Sell

Confluence between the D1 EQZ midline, Yesterday’s Close,the 11550 level and the 1min ema.

I didn’t take the trade as price had fallen quite a way, to the bottom of the H1 EQZ, and I was expecting a deeper retracement towards the 5min ema.

14:34

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I had a much longer than planned break for lunch, when I came back I realised I had just missed this set-up.

Price touched the 11600 level and dropped off quickly.

11:17

M1 | Sell | -0.02R

This trade was always going out on a limb, but a confluence of the short-term keyzone, 61.8 Fib level and presence of the 4hour and 15min ema convinced me that there might be something in this, with a move back down to the H1 Bear Channel.

I’m very happy with my management of this trade, as a strong bull candle told me that the set-up was gone, the period of uncertainty was over, and that Bulls had the upper hand.

I closed out for a small loss, just as price broke up to where my Stop Loss had been.

10:53

M1 1min MAB | Sell

A second’s hesitation and I missed out on the entry.

09:30

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +1.82R

A significant impulsive move off the 11650 level down to Daily Bear Channel midpoint, retracement to the underside of the M5 EQZ.

I drew my Fib tool from the Lower Low to the H1 EQZ rather than the 11650 level where the move started, as although I’m taking note of how price interacts with these levels, I’m not yet confident to use them as key structure during set-ups.

08:30

H4

Price is currently at the top of the Daily Bull Channel. Will it begin to move back down into the Daily Channel or push on up towards the Daily ema?

07:00

Morning observations

Fri 19 Oct 2018

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<< Thurs 18 Oct

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Monday 22 Oct >>

11:23

5min MAB forming?

I was wrong about the MAB. I was expecting a slow climb to the 5min ema, so when this Bullish spike happened, I sat well back.

Is this the point I was talking about yesterday, where my concentration isn’t at 100% and I should step back for the day before I make any more mistakes?

11:10

5min MAB forming?

Or has price found a target at 11500, and start to move up to the Hi-Lo GZ and 1hour ema?

10:07

M1 5min MAB | Sell

RESCON formed by the interesection of M5 Channels and the11550 level, and the Daily EQZ midline for good measure.

I didn’t take this trade because it looked like price was on the rise, and I didn’t want to sell against that. I would have been looking to bring in 2R with a small move back to the Open.

09:14

M1 1min MAB | Sell

Another decent setup, another chance goes begging!

The Fib tool here is drawn from the Low to the H1 EQZ midline which had been acting as Support previously.

It’s all good and well to spot them, but at some point I need to hit CRTL+E!

08:58

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Too fussy waiting for a pull-back to touch the top of the 5min EQZ and 5min ema, and missed out on a good trade.

I did not make a note of the time. Had I seen that it was at the turn of the hour, I’d have taken a less-then-perfect entry. Even without noting the time, I shouldn’t have let this one go.

At least I was there to mark it up and notice it. Next time…

07:00

Observing the “hundred” levels

At 07:00 there was a gap up,right to the 11600 level. Price is currently working around a keyzone formed by the gaps white space.

08:00

H1 Overview

Today I’m expecting a similar day to yesterday. A rise in price in the morning, perhaps up to meet the 4hour ema at the Daily Bull Channel and H1 EQZ, and then a drop in price with the Previous Weeks Low, Daily EQZ (11397.9) and Daily Bull Channel as a target.The 11400 level is also in that area, and I’m interested to see how the “hundred” levels play a part today.

I don’t see price rising much higher than the Daily EQZ at 11693.8, and I suspect that the SUPCON of the previous week will now act as RESCON.

Today I will be looking for a session high, and then switching to Bear Mode to ride price down.

Thurs 18 Oct 2018

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<< Wed 17 Oct

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Fri 19 Oct >>

16:10

An update on the last trade. Fine margins, easily avoided.

15:31

M1 failed 5min MAB | Sell | -1.11R

This trade used the same resistance levels as my last trade, which might have been a mistake considering they did not resist price last time. I should have also noticed that price was retracing to the 15min ema, which I was also warned of with the last trade.

I believe this has happened because I’ve been sat at the computer watching the charts all day, and worn myself out. I should have stopped after the morning session, where I showed a lot of positives, I was happy with my read and picked out quite a few opportunities even if I only took one of them.

As I type (16:05), price is breaking through Yes. Low, and is looking to work its way down to where my 2R profit target would have been sat. A simple and easily avoidable mistake with this trade, had my attention been sharper!

14:40

M1 failed 1min MAB | Sell | -1.02R

After convincingly breaking through the 11693.8 Daily EQZ level, I saw this 1min MAB forming, and thought price would then move down towards Yes. Low and the Daily Bull Channel. I placed my stop behind the Daily EQZ border, 5min EQZ border and H1 Bull Channel midpoint, which I believed would hold as resistance.

14:30

Examples of interactions with 11700 level

I marked up the 11700 level yesterday when finding SUPCON for a trade. Here are some examples where price has respected the level. Something to think about in the future when price is near the round-numbered levels.

13:46

M1 RESCON + ST KZ | Sell

A risky trade which could have easily backfired, which I why I did not take it.

However, there was good RESCON with the Hourly Bear Channel midpoint, intersection of 5min Channels and the top of a short-term keyzone forcing price down, with a potential quick +2R to be had.

12:26

M1 4hour MAB + Lo-Hi GZ | Buy | -1.00R

I didn’t have a particularly good feeling about this trade either, but took it as the 4hour MAB inside the Lo-Hi GZ was something that I had been anticipating for a while.

(12:41pm) Update: My bad feeling was proved right, and perhaps in the future I should listen to my instinct. It remains to be seen whether a much wider stop would have prevented this loss. I should have stayed in Bear mode, as that had done me well up until this point!

I would not say that I am unhappy with this loss, as it was a trade I had marked up early on and ticked the right boxes.

11:44

M1 5min MAB | Sell

Another sell opportunity. A gap formed in the impulsive bear move, which proved to be the point at which price turned. In the screenshot above, I have also pulled the GZ from a previous trade forward which added more confluence to the trade.

My reason for not entering this trade was the presence of the 15min and 1hour emas, which price would have to break through to achieve +2R. I could have taken this trade and taken +1R with a profit target above the two moving averages, however I am practising patience, and only taking trades I get a particularly good feeling about, so passed on this one.

10:30

M1 Yes. Close + 5min Bull-Bear intersection | Sell

Another opportunity for a sell trade. A confluence of the GZ (Look Left), Yes. Close, the intersection of 5min Bull and Bear Channels and taking note that the time was at the half hour mark, made for a decent trade.

My next thoughts are whether to prepare for a trade at the 61.8 level of the Lo-Hi GZ, with the 4hour ema hanging around, and another 5min Channel intersection.

09:52

M1 Hourly Bull Channel RESCON | Sell | +2.10R

With the same mindset as my last entry, I sold as price touched the Hourly Bull Channel, also confluent with the 61.8 Fib level. I put my stop above the high as I didn’t think price would make a new high until after it had made a more significant retracement, possibly to the Lo-Hi GZ.

I was also tempted by the 5min MAB that formed at the Lower Low of this setup. With more confidence I could have taken another +2R, but I wasn’t sure there was enough supporting structure, and I was in a Bearish mindset.

I’m happy that I showed patience and passed on the 5min MAB, taking this RESCON trade instead.

08:52

M1 Daily Bull + Bear Channel RESCON | Sell

A good opportunity here to sell at the confluence of the the Daily Bear Channel, Daily Bull Channel midpoint and 5min EQZ. The Daily Bull mid had previously shown to be resistive.

08:30

D1 Overview

Yesterday I believed that after the H4 MAB and bounce off the SUPCON at the 11693.8 D1 EQZ level, price would begin to move up to for a Daily MAB at around 11940.

It’s also possible that we have seen the best of the daily retracement, as a Fib drawn from the Low up to a Daily EQZ midpoint (which was acting as support previously in the year) shows price neatly turning at the 61.8 Fib level (11853). There is also a keyzone in play, though I not sure how much weigh it really holds.

As I write this, things are looking Bullish, with an impulsive spike off the D1 EQZ supportive level, but this could just be the Bull’s last ditch effort to assert themselves before the Bears step in to push price to new Lows, which is ultimately where I think we’re headed in the next few weeks.

Wed 17 Oct 2018

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Thurs 18 Oct >>

15:30

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I saw this 5min MAB forming straight after my last trade, but I wasn’t sure if price would be able to break through the Daily EQZ boundary at 11693.8, as it had proved to be good support previously today.

I was also wary of giving back profits so soon after a decent +2R trade.

With a fib tool drawn from the bottom of a 5min EQZ down to the Low, price retraced to a pip-perfect 61.8 level, where the bears stepped in to drive price down through the day’s supporting levels. Also of note, the turning point came almost exactly at the half hour mark.

15:22

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +2.03R

I liked the look of the impulsive bearish move off the 5min ema, and the retracement fell nicely at the H1 EQZ midpoint.

10:46

M1 4hour MAB | Buy | +1.37R

I got the MAB I had been waiting for!

The SUPCON I had identified earlier held, and I got a decent entry point for the trade.

I chickened out as price rose to the underside of the 5min EQZ and the 5min ema came down to meet it, and took a profit of +1.37R. With more trust in my read of the action, I could have stayed in the trade and taken larger profits, but after my ‘WTF’ moment earlier, I just wanted some profits.

I won’t even grace that trade with its own post. There was a knock at the door, and my attention got diverted. When I came back, I was so intent on seeing price rise for a 5min MAB that I ruined all the time I had spent waiting patiently, entered a trade, immediately regretted it and looked to close the trade at break even, which of course never happened.

I am angry at myself as taking these stupid trades was something only yesterday I promised myself I would cut out. There is good reason why I don’t trust myself to trade with my own money yet.

09:39

5min MAB – 1hour ema + H1 Bull Channel + H1 EQZ

09:33

H4 MAB setup?

A bit clearer on the M5, 5min Channels removed for clarity.

09:13

H4 MAB into Daily MAB setup?

A move down to the11693 level and 4hour MAB?

The gold line represents the 61.8 fib level on the daily chart.

Tues 16 Oct 2018

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Wed 17 Oct >>

08:49

M1 1min MAB | Buy | -1.20R

Another minnow that I should have left alone, especially as I was already in another trade when I took this one. I was lured in by the impulsive move to create the daily High.

I lost more than I should have with trade after moving the stop. Both trades where I have moved the stop have been minnows and have lost the most, something I seriously need to cut out.

08:26

M1 1min MAB + SUPCON | Buy | -0.98R

When I said that I would take the trade again at 07:58, I quite literally had the chance to take it again, with an entry and stop loss in almost the same place, but this time with a much more clear impulsive move leading up to it.

(09:47am) Update:

I ended up losing -0.98R on this trade due to greed and bad management of an active trade. Anticipating a move up to the Daily EQZ at 11693.8, I moved my profit target up to 3R, hoping to cover the previous losses and make some profit in the process. I had two chances to cash in at almost 2R, and then as price fell down through Yes. High I could have taken myself out for break even or a small profit.

Instead, I held on with hope that price would turn around, even though the H1 Bull Channel was proving resistive, followed by a clearly bearish impulsive move where I hesistated and sat on my hands, when I should have been cutting my losses.

 

08:03

M1 1hour MAB + Lo-Hi GZ | Buy | +1.48R

1hour MAB, Lo-Hi GZ, a no-brainer, in my eyes. I couldve held the trade and been more patient, but I wasn’t sure if the previous SUPCON would now act as RESCON and push price back down, so took the +1.48R.

07:58

M1 SUPCON | Buy | -1.00R

A couple of losing trades to start the day. The first one (pictured below 07:52) was a minnow that I shouldnt have taken. The presence of Yes. High lured me into taking the trade but there wasn’t much of an impulsive move beforehand, and not much other structure in confluence. I moved the stop behind the Daily Bull Channel as support, which resulted in a -1.41R loss.

The second trade (above, 07:58) was much better in terms of trading off the structure. The 4hour, 15min and 5min emas were in play, confluent with the Hourly EQZ border, 5min EQZ and Daily Bull Channel. Although I should have paid some more attention to the H1 MAB that was forming, the SUPCON was convincng enough that I would take this trade again.

07:52

M1 1min MAB + Yes High | Buy | -1.41R

Mon 15 Oct 2018

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Tues 16 Oct >>

16:52

M1 5min MAB + H1 Channel midpoint | Buy | -1.02R

Another loss, but this is another trade I think I’d take again. I passed on the earlier 1min MAB and waited to price to retrace to the 5min ema, confluent with a keyzone and the Hourly Bear Channel midline.

I was anticipating a move back up towards the H1 EQZ border at 11644, with the 4hour ema and Daily Bull Channel in confluence.

Ideally, I should have placed my stop below the top of the M5 EQZ border, and not left it hanging in white space. At the time, my thinking was that this was a very wide stop gap, and it would reduce my profits with a profit target at the High.

10:59

M1 1min MAB + keyzone | Buy | +1.19R

It’s nice to see a bit of green in the Trade Controller!

A good set up after an impulsive bullish move to create a new high. Price retraced to a keyzone drawn from late Friday/ early this morning’s price action, which was confluent with the 61.8 GZ level.

I had my TP level just below the Hourly Bull Channel + 5min EQZ, but took profits manually just below the Open.

10:15

M1 RESCON + 1hour ema | Sell | -1.00R

Finally a trade I can look back on and say that I would take it again!

An area of good RESCON, with the Hourly Bear Channel, Hourly EQZ and the 61.8 level of the Hi-Lo GZ.

09:29

09:52

M1 | Sell | -1.04R

M1 | Sell | -1.01R

I want to use the excuse that these couple of trades were just practise shots to find my aim, after some time away from the charts. In reality, they were bad trades, minnows, would not take again.

I should have been patient and planned out the move up towards the 1hour ema.

08:51

M1 GZ + 5min EQZ | Sell | -1.03R

Price eventually made it’s way through where my TP was placed, just inside the bottom of the 5min EQZ, but not before pushing up to the Daily Bull Mid first, taking me out of the trade.

Mon 01 Oct 2018

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13:22

M1 5min MAB | Sell | -0.99R

This trade was an emotional reaction to losing 1R on the previous trade. I would not take this trade again, as the keyzone had proven to be good support, and most probably would not have taken the trade had I not just had a loser.

13:03

M1 5min MAB | Sell | -1.00R

I needed a bit more patience with trade, which would have given me a better value entry. I only extended the GZ after I had taken the trade. In hindsight, I should have used it to better position my stop loss.

11:47

M1 5min MAB | Sell | +2.00R

The 1min MAB looked tempting, but this time I listened to the voice in my head telling me to watch out for the higher timeframe structure. I decided to prepare for the 5min MAB, expecting the 4H ema to draw price towards it.

The first thing I did was pull my profit target down to just above the 1H ema + 5min bear channel, at the bottom of the screenshot. As price hesitated  at the keyzone, I manually closed the trade for +2R. Recently I have got greedy and missed out on 2R, looking for more and I did not want to make that mistake again.

11:13

11:19

M1 | Sell | -0.76

M1 | Sell | -1.11

Two bad trades, attempting to trade a 4H MAB.