Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.
Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.
Remember to:
- Follow your Trading Plan.
- Practice Visualization Techniques.
- Review and journal your trades at the end of each session.
- And above all else Be The Bear….
I’ve had stuff on so have not been able to sit at my desk but have just come back to see another decent M15 sell MAB at around 14:00, well done Joel for taking this one and getting +2.18R from it (see his post at 2:44pm below).
It had great structure, point C was confluent with:
- D1 Bear Channel that price has been oscillating around today.
- M5 EQZ Mid-line@11159.2
- 61.8 level@11156.4
A great example where “Being The Bear” paid off 🙂
I’ve just come back to my desk to see that an M15 Sell MAB formed at 12:10. The point A used is taken from the M5 MAB and the M15 chart, it produced the Golden Zone as shown.
So far the best structural ABC setups have been sells and my bias for buys meant I talked myself out of the one I posted at 10:12 below.
The Role-Reversal zone for this M15 MAB had great structure when looking left and when point A is taken as shown the the Golden Zone is perfect!, see M15 chart below.
Price has been correcting after Friday’s bull move. The FIBCON above on the M5 chart was structurally good with the Golden Zone at the D1 Bear Channel and the M5 EQZ Mid-line@11159.2
I talked myself out of it but it turned out to be a good sell setup.
I had to leave my desk just after 8am and have just returned to see that a GZ FIBCON formed after price set the current low at the D1 Bear Channel.
A decent A-B-C sell setup though after Friday’s very bullish day we should be favoring buy setups.
After Fridays bull move up to the D1 EQZ Mid-line@11251 what next?
This level was in play during October and November last year acting as both support and resistance.
Here’s two FibCon opportunities I’ve picked out, after price found a new Low and started moving upwards. Both had good confluence with M5 structure. Had there been a moving average also in play, I think I may have entered one or both of these trades.
Joel.
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/members/desktop-lr7eroa/dax30sb_M1_21jan2019_1308_xxxxxxxx_xxx.png
Since setting the current low price has been oscillating around the D1 Bear channel.
The best ABC for me was the one I posted at 10:12, I was close to taking it but talked myself out of it as I was favoring buys. The more I look at it the more I should have taken it, the play was a Double-Bottom!!
Is this a chance for a Supportive Confluence (SUPCON) buy trade, if price makes a significant bearish move, today or in the next few days?
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/members/desktop-lr7eroa/dax30sb_H1_21jan2019_1200_xxxxxxxx_xxx.png
Would this be a better fit, with the 4hour moving average coming into play for a 4hour MAB?
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/members/desktop-lr7eroa/dax30sb_H1_21jan2019_1400_xxxxxxxx_xxx.png
Joel.
13:52 – 15min MAB, Sell, +2.18R
Half an hour nervously sitting on my hands and trying my best not to tamper with the trade paid off with a winner.
After the previous 15min MAB (which daxtrader has pointed out above), I was confident that the 15min ema was the one to be watching. When the opportunity came up for a 15min MAB confluence with the D1 Bear Channel, I had to take it!
There was a smaller set-up during the B-C leg of this trade, where price encountered some resistance at a Fib level (shown in the screenshot below), but I resisted the urge to take this trade as it was low probability.
I did move my Stop Loss up to above the 1hour ema halfway through this trade, as further protection from any price spikes, however this wasn’t necessary in the end, and could have resulted in a bigger loss had price not gone my way!
Also of note, is the intersection of the M5 Bull and Bear Channels, which added another layer of confluence to this trade.
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/members/desktop-lr7eroa/dax30sb_M1_21jan2019_1552_21691396_sell.png
Great trade Joel, well timed and well taken and well managed!!
Leaving it play out for 30 minutes or so can be tough as we know but you were well rewarded.
I’ve been away from my desk so missed this one but your reasoning was excellent, I’ll also mark it up and comment on it above, see my post at 15:16.