Mon 10th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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11:04

Naming Conventions

To distinquish between the different Key Zones I’ll use the following from now on:

  • Hourly Key Zones = H-KZ
  • Intraday Key Zones = I-KZ

10:40

M5 Sell MAB Small Winner, +0.37R

I took the M5 sell MAB when price retraced back up to the D1 EQZ@13463, it started well but once price failed to continue below Yes Low I closed out due to the price action so far this morning, that proved a good call.

It’s been in a small range and did provide two decent sell opportunities, an M1 Sell MAB at 08:30 and yet another Sell Reversal FIBCON when price moved back up to the H-KZ@13489

Selling at the 13489 level was also justified based on point A being taken from the HH produced ay the 7am candle at 13518 and point B from the LL’s at 13445, this produced a GZ where the 61.8 level was confluent with 13489

Over the last few weeks I’ve noticed several REVERSAL FIBCONs (both buy and sell) when price reaches major key levels, most often the H-KZs which are shown by the magenta lines.

The one today at 09:18 was a Grade A which I didn’t see in real-time but take a good look at it:

  • Point A was at the H-KZ + I-KZ@ 13490
  • Point B was at the bottom of the I-KZ@13476
  • The GZ was just above the top of the same I-KZ.

This was another great example of at least two components of the Grid forming part of the A-B-C pattern. The context was also excellent, take a look at the H1 chart and look-left from this level, note 2pm and 4pm last wednesday on the 5th Feb.

We must hard-wire into our reasoning and thinking when price reaches these levels “Will this produce a Reversal FIBCON?”

Thu 6th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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Wed 5th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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09:43

Passed on M1 Buy MAB Winner 🙁

I was not sure of the best place for point B and ended up talking myself out of this M1 Buy MAB due to the context at the top ofthe Hourly KZ@13372

09:12

Important Hourly FIBCON

This FIBCON marked up on the hourly chart shows the importance of the higher time frame context.

Point A is taken from the D1 EQZ@13167 and point B at Yes High+The Hourly KZ@13303 and look where the GZ falls?

The 61.8 level@13220 is right at the session Low which was followed by the huge bull spike up.

08:41

Correctly marked up FIBCON

WOW!!!

This is a great example of how important it is to mark up the A-B-C correctly!

If point A is taken from the Low then the GZ shifts lower and look what happened before price shot up. I made point A fit with the M1 MAB and on the M1 chart you risk getting caught up in noise, that’s exactly what happened to me!

Points B & C are confluent with the KZs and point A the session Low – ALL Grid components.

It’s SO clear afterwards that this was a great opportunity to ride the move up from the bottom of the Hourly KZ@13240 to the top@13305.

08:19

M1 Buy MAB Loser, -0.53R

After finding support just after 8am a bull spike pushed back up through the 13240 level. I took the M1 Buy MAB and ended up with a loser after reducing my risk.

Had I not done that I would have taken the full 1R. My 2R target was at point B so pleased with that part of the setup.

I was anticipating that the bulls would be able to push higher but I got caught up in the battle around the 13240 level.

07:16

Why I almost never trade before 8am

This M1 Buy MAB that formed just after 7am is a good example of why I almost never trade before 8am.

It had good structure and good Role-Reversal when you look at the M15 & M30 charts but due to relatively low liquidity these tend to be low probability.

Plus the spread is 1.5 pips between 7-8am. At 8am it drops to 1 pip and the London traders join in providing greater liquidity.

07:04

Morning Review

Yesterday was a very bullish one that saw price move back above the 13167 level stopping just short of the midline@13315.

It reached the Hourly boundaries at 13303 to set the high of the session as shown below on the H1 chart.

Note how well price moves up and down the zones…

Tue 04th Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:52

Today’s Video

12:49

M1 Buy Micro-MAB Winner, +2.01R

This M1 Buy Micro-MAB took about 7 minutes to form but had excellent structure and context.

Price was moving up towards the top of a H4 KeyZone@13240 so this was a good setup that was likely part of price making it’s way up.

The GZ was at the top of the KZ plus when you look-left the Role-Reversal (point B of the earlier M5 Buy MAB) was perfect. I entered using the Trade Tool with the 2R target just above point B, at the top of the next KZ.

This was a fast moving “Must Take” trade…

 

12:11

Missed M5 Buy MAB

I was away from my desk when this M5 Buy MAB took place.

Well spotted Joel!

It was a decent buy setup that would have been a 2R winner!

09:10

M1 Buy MAB, Small Winner, +0.17R

Price reached the Daily 13167 level as anticipated and then broke above it.

I took the M1 Buy MAB as shown. It had:

  • Good structure.
  • Good context – Buy setup.
  • The KZs were in play in at points A, B and C.

I trailed my stop once price broke back above 13175 but it failed to hold this level and took me out for a very small winner.

The only thing against the trade is the zone between 13167 (Daily EQZ) – 13176 (H1 EQZ), this is taking time to resolve. When you look left on the M30 and H1 charts you can see this has been an event zone between the bulls and the bears.

09:55 Update: The 2R just came in!

07:34

Daily Chart

It’s been bullish overnight with 13167 the next target for the bulls.

Just above this level is the H1 EQZ@13175

Mon 3rd Feb

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:02

Reversal Buy FIBCON – Again!

Note how the Grid is confluent with points A & B.

17:38

Micro Double Bottom

Example of Daily EQZ Midline@13020 in play.

14:10

M1 Buy MAB

Just taken a look and spotted an M1 Buy MAB that was decent.

Point B, the Higher-High at the top of the KeyZone@13020 was strong and clear enough to consider a buy on a retrace. The M1 MAB played out perfectly  sending price back above point B to the bottom of the next KeyZone@13033

If you were to take point A from the top of the KeyZone@13004 the GZ would have been confluent with the bottom of the KeyZone above AND perfectly confluent with the M1 MAB. 

That’s why is worth trying to fit points A & B to either the top or bottom (using the wicks and closes) of the KeyZones in play. We NEVER force-fit but let the price action and Grid guide us.

 

 

12:34

Super-Micro Reversal FIBCON

Just noticed a Micro Reversal Buy FIBCON that formed when price tested the BOR again.

VERY tough, near impossible to trade in real-time but the thing to note is the structure and context.

Only using the Trade Tool could you consider anything close to these and control risk at the same time.

11:25

Missed The Reversal FIBCON 🙁

I’ve just noticed the Buy Reversal FIBCON that formed as price moved back up.

This did have good structure and context plus the 61.8 level was confluent with the 13000 BRN level.

I’ve seen several of these lately but not in real-time, this one was worth taking especially as I’d passed on the M1 sell MAB due to reasoning price would be trying to move back up off the BOR.

The A-B impulsive leg was very clear with point B produced by an M5 Sell MAB.

These Reversal FIBCONs Buys have some common traits:

  • The M1 MAB will be low probability.
  • The M5 MAB often will produce a point B
  • Price will retrace into the Golden Zone offering a high value entry.

I’d left my desk for a while and missed this – We MUST ask ourselves :

“If price is testing the BOR or TOR then MAYBE a Reversal FIBCON will form?”

This is where the synergy of community can benefit us all…….

10:18

Low Probability M1 Sell MAB

The M1 Sell MAB after the break below 13007 was a low probability setup due to the context. The H1 EQZ Midline@12984 is the BOR and can be seen clearly on the M15 chart.

If price does break clearly below 12984 then a sell setup might form?

08:39

M1 Sell MAB

I passed on the M1 Sell MAB due to the choppy context as price resolves the D1 Midline@13020 (and the BRN of 13000), this one would have worked out.

However, after testing the 13000 level again at point B price moved back up sharply.

We need to see price break break above the H1 EQZ@13048 to consider buy setups.

07:34

Monday Morning

After Friday’s big sell-off down to just above the D1 EQZ@12873 price has moved back up to the Midline@13020.40

We need to see if price continues to move back up or if the bearish mood continues to push price lower.

Wed 29th Jan

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:10

Buy FIBCON

Just noticed a Micro-FIBCON on the way back up to Yes High.

Note points A and C are confluent with the bottom of the KeyZones.

10:12

Reversal Buy FIBCON Off Low’s

NOTE: I’m watching the charts but not trading due to other projects I need to concentrate on today.

After the sell-off from Yes High down to the 13303 level a decent Reversal Buy FIBCON formed.

Once again note how points A, B & C are confluent with either the top or bottom of the intraday KeyZones.

They may not be pip perfect – at times they are – but you can see how price uses them.

We need to become experts at doing the same and overlaying our A-B-C trading edge!

09:45

Missed Sell FIBCON at Yes High

I’d marked up this sell setup then allowd myself to get distracted 🙁

The GZ was confluent with the top of the KeyZone@13344 which has been in play recently as seen on the M5 and M15 charts.

It had decent context:

  • Micro Double-Top at Yes High
  • GZ confluent with top of active KeyZone.

It’s one of those trades that suggested multiple R was possible due to the context.

Note how Points A, B & C are ALL confluent with the top of the intraday KeyZones!!

The more I study these zones the more powerful they’re becoming in our trading plan.

 

09:38

Low Probability M1 Buy MAB

After 8am price moved down to test the H1 EQZ@13303 which is also the top of an H4 Keyzone. I passed on the M1 Sell MAB due to the context as the D1 EQZ Midline@13315 was also in play as possible support.

Fri 24th Jan

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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09:18

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Winner, +1.99R

At 8am the bulls produced a strong move up that I was unable to jump on.

I followed the move up on the higher time frames and anitcipated that the first decent pullback of quality would be to the PW High. I used a buy limit to enter, this one worked out perfectly!

Note that point A is at the bottom of a KeyZone.

Note that point C (PW High) is at the bottom of a KeyZone.

The more I’m studying the intraday KeyZones the more I’m seeing how they can play a major role in increasing the quality our A-B-C setups.

 

Thu 23rd Jan

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:19

Missed M5 Sell MAB

Had to pop out and came back to see this M5 Sell MAB at 12:47

The retrace back up to the D1 EQZ@13463 was great Role-Reversal….

10:38

Missed M1 Buy Micro-MAB Winner 🙁

SO Frustrating!!

I decided to use a Buy Limit for this M1 Buy Micro-MAB once price broke above the D1 EQZ@13463 and it failed to trigger by 0.3 of a pip!

I’ve started using limit orders more often to avoid timing issues with the Trade Tool at times, was just too fussy on the setup.

It had decent structure, point A was the PM High, the 61.8 level was perfectly confluent with the 13463 level and the Role-Reversal was superb!

09:17

M1 Sell MAB Loser, -1.27R

I took the first sell setup after the break below the H1 EQZ@13430. I was a little unsure about the context but otherwise liked the setup and entered using a sell limit order.

My 2R target was above point B so pleased with the setup, just didn’t work out.

 

Tue 21st Jan

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:52

Missed M5 Buy MAB 🙁

After watching all morning I had to leave my desk and missed the best setup so far today!

This M5 Buy Micro-MAB was decent up to Yes Low (point B) with point A taken from the PM High.