Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.
Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.
Remember to:
- Follow your Trading Plan.
- Practice Visualization Techniques.
- Review and journal your trades at the end of each session.
- And above all else Be The Bear….
After a few hours of Mark Douglas during which NFP took place, I returned to see that the bulls had continued to drive price up.
I ended up taking the above sell REVFIB where the GZ was confluent with the PW High. There was an aggressive REVFIB at 12651 but I was not at my desk to see that.
Below are two sell losers from earlier. Structurally they were good BUT it was the context that was the reason why they were low probability.
The energy had switched to a bullish one due to the Buy GZ on the M5 chart, see below. I sold into this bullish energy.
After updating the blog earlier I looked to see what had been going on only to see that I was 5 minutes too late for the REVFIB at the High.
Well done Elaine and Alex for executing it perfectly 🙂
I lost track of time updating the blog and was a bit gutted but was so pleased others took it. It’s a classic high-quality REVFIB at the High, the two losing ones I took earlier were too early as the bullish energy had not run its course.
A second sell setup followed which I was sat waiting for but once again I was too fussy wanting price to move up into the GZ at the BRN of 12500
Upon review, once again the most recent micro-structure provided us with a clue as to where price might reach. I have updated my plan with:
If a GZ is reasonably confluent with KeyZones based on the wicks of recent SHs or SLs then go with the KeyZones (ie. the wicks) to act as Role-Reversal.
Do NOT insist on ideal GZ PBs for the trade entry.
Time to go watch some Mark Douglas..
I’ve really enjoyed trading this morning, I’ve had 2 losers and 1 winner and learned a lot!
Based on the Daily chart I’ve had a bullish bias this morning but when two potential REVFIBs came along I took them, both lost.
The first was just before 8 am, probably should have left it alone.
The second one just after 8 am was based on the 50% midine@12429 and the H4 chart. But here’s the thing,
All I saw was the sell REVFIB, I was totally blinded to the quality of the buy setup offering a continuation FIBCON.
It was a proper battle as you can see but eventually, the bulls won and created an impulsive A-B leg breaking above 12429. But here’s the thing.
Once I’d lost the sell REVFIB I saw the buy setup.
Yesterday whilst watching a Mark Douglas seminar he mentioned specifically about how traders filter information, a classic is when we are in so invested in a trade we only see information to support it, completely blinded to a setup the opposite direction.
And then this happened to me earlier, SO, I have made a note of this rather important thing to be aware of. The idea being that next time I might reason something like:
Am I blinded to a setup in the opposite direction?
I will then mark up the opposite setup.
If I have two opposing trades in the same zone then I will pass unless I have a clear reason for bias, like today based on the Daily chart. Another clue was the break above Yes High.
After switching to buy mode I took the first decent PB to a GZ and ended up with a +1.60R winner. I closed out when it looked like it was struggling at the high.
One thing to point out is the Precise Nano-PB to the 12438 midline after the BO above 12429. I marked up a possible buy and sent out the Trade Setup but the PB to the GZ never came BUT look at the accuracy of the Price Action Grid midlines showing where the PB did come back to.
NFP later so time to go watch the next Mark Douglas webinar.
I took the sell REVFIB at Yes High. I liked it, decent structure, and context but didn’t work out.
The only thing going against it was the timing, 7 minutes before the London open, however, there was time to see it go in your favour if the trade was going to work out.
The intraday GZ currently falls precisely between the EQZ@12281 and the Open.
It could be supportive if price moves down into it. We might see a REVFIB??
We are still in the Daily GZ just above the 12281 level. The move back down below it yesterday reached the lower GZ, just below the 50% level then the bulls drove price back up.
We are still very much range-bound, maybe today that will change, maybe not?
Note: Today is NFP at 1:30 pm, a day early as tomorrow is a Bank Holiday in the US.
That is trust in the structure!! You took a M1 FIBCON with price below the M1 Moving Average, I wasn’t brave enough!
However, I finally manged to grab a reversal FIBCON!!
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ge30.sb_M1_02jul2020_1005_xxxxxxxx_xxx_M1-Reversal-FIBCON-Winner-10.19.gif
I’ve just seen this setup, well done! both you and Elaine. I got engrossed in the blog update I lost track of time only to look at my chart to see price falling away from the GZ.
I will blog it now, if you overlay both Bull and Bear M1 Channels note how clear their additional confluence was at the GZ.
Took a REVFIB off the high at 12531 and got a nice winner, hope it’s not one of those that goes all the way back down. I moved my target a wee bit but as the momentum was so bullish I didn’t want to push my luck.
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/screenshots/scottyspice/ge30.sb_M1_02jul2020_1020_11626431_sell_REVFIB-Winner.png
Well done Alex, great that we both got that! However, I’m now a bit disappointed in myself as I marked up a FIBCON which had great role reversal and I had my trade tool waiting but this one got away 🙁
https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/screenshots/scottyspice/ge30.sb_M1_02jul2020_1101_xxxxxxxx_xxx_FIBCON.png
There was great role reversal there! We won’t ever take all the ones that end up working out, but keep being hard on yourself, that’s the way to achieve mastery!
Copy-cat trade our REVFIB, I guess you got scared by price moving up and closed it mannually, didn’t you? I did!! lol, had some tough trading days recently, I needed that 2R!