This trade used the same resistance levels as my last trade, which might have been a mistake considering they did not resist price last time. I should have also noticed that price was retracing to the 15min ema, which I was also warned of with the last trade.
I believe this has happened because I’ve been sat at the computer watching the charts all day, and worn myself out. I should have stopped after the morning session, where I showed a lot of positives, I was happy with my read and picked out quite a few opportunities even if I only took one of them.
As I type (16:05), price is breaking through Yes. Low, and is looking to work its way down to where my 2R profit target would have been sat. A simple and easily avoidable mistake with this trade, had my attention been sharper!
After convincingly breaking through the 11693.8 Daily EQZ level, I saw this 1min MAB forming, and thought price would then move down towards Yes. Low and the Daily Bull Channel. I placed my stop behind the Daily EQZ border, 5min EQZ border and H1 Bull Channel midpoint, which I believed would hold as resistance.
I marked up the 11700 level yesterday when finding SUPCON for a trade. Here are some examples where price has respected the level. Something to think about in the future when price is near the round-numbered levels.
A risky trade which could have easily backfired, which I why I did not take it.
However, there was good RESCON with the Hourly Bear Channel midpoint, intersection of 5min Channels and the top of a short-term keyzone forcing price down, with a potential quick +2R to be had.
I didn’t have a particularly good feeling about this trade either, but took it as the 4hour MAB inside the Lo-Hi GZ was something that I had been anticipating for a while.
(12:41pm) Update: My bad feeling was proved right, and perhaps in the future I should listen to my instinct. It remains to be seen whether a much wider stop would have prevented this loss. I should have stayed in Bear mode, as that had done me well up until this point!
I would not say that I am unhappy with this loss, as it was a trade I had marked up early on and ticked the right boxes.
Another sell opportunity. A gap formed in the impulsive bear move, which proved to be the point at which price turned. In the screenshot above, I have also pulled the GZ from a previous trade forward which added more confluence to the trade.
My reason for not entering this trade was the presence of the 15min and 1hour emas, which price would have to break through to achieve +2R. I could have taken this trade and taken +1R with a profit target above the two moving averages, however I am practising patience, and only taking trades I get a particularly good feeling about, so passed on this one.
Another opportunity for a sell trade. A confluence of the GZ (Look Left), Yes. Close, the intersection of 5min Bull and Bear Channels and taking note that the time was at the half hour mark, made for a decent trade.
My next thoughts are whether to prepare for a trade at the 61.8 level of the Lo-Hi GZ, with the 4hour ema hanging around, and another 5min Channel intersection.
With the same mindset as my last entry, I sold as price touched the Hourly Bull Channel, also confluent with the 61.8 Fib level. I put my stop above the high as I didn’t think price would make a new high until after it had made a more significant retracement, possibly to the Lo-Hi GZ.
I was also tempted by the 5min MAB that formed at the Lower Low of this setup. With more confidence I could have taken another +2R, but I wasn’t sure there was enough supporting structure, and I was in a Bearish mindset.
I’m happy that I showed patience and passed on the 5min MAB, taking this RESCON trade instead.
A good opportunity here to sell at the confluence of the the Daily Bear Channel, Daily Bull Channel midpoint and 5min EQZ. The Daily Bull mid had previously shown to be resistive.
Yesterday I believed that after the H4 MAB and bounce off the SUPCON at the 11693.8 D1 EQZ level, price would begin to move up to for a Daily MAB at around 11940.
It’s also possible that we have seen the best of the daily retracement, as a Fib drawn from the Low up to a Daily EQZ midpoint (which was acting as support previously in the year) shows price neatly turning at the 61.8 Fib level (11853). There is also a keyzone in play, though I not sure how much weigh it really holds.
As I write this, things are looking Bullish, with an impulsive spike off the D1 EQZ supportive level, but this could just be the Bull’s last ditch effort to assert themselves before the Bears step in to push price to new Lows, which is ultimately where I think we’re headed in the next few weeks.
Interesting how right you were observing the market intentions to go either up/down. Almost all your trades came relatively close to a significant move, as if you saw the pressure to go up/down increasing.
Keep doing that, just find the best possible entry level and wait for it. I guess you would do better than all of us!
Thanks for pointing that out. It is most frustrating to get a loser, when you know you’ve guessed the direction properly but just got the entry wrong. You are right that I need to be persistent with it.
I think that ‘pressure’ is what I mean when I say that I get a good or bad feeling about the trade. The one trade I didn’t have a good feeling about, the 4hour MAB, was the one I think I got most wrong. There were a lot of ‘uncertain’ and ‘wicky’ candles seen before taking the trade.