daxtrader

Wed 24th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:37

At Last!! An M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.01R

After a day of just missing or passing on what turned out to be winners, I finally pulled the trigger on an M1 Sell MAB after the bears regained control just after the US came online.

I almost took the first M1 MAB but wanted a PB to 12263, TOO Fussy!

However, I marked up the fast-moving micro-M1 MAB that followed and took it. It did come back up briefly but it worked out, the M1 Bear Channels played their part – see below.

I’m done for the day, need some sunshine and a break. One winner is fine but I should have bagged at least another, the salmon were in the river and I called the excellent sell zone at 12318  🙂

Note: Fast-moving setups like this are difficult to markup, screenshot and upload without affecting focus. I’ll do my best as I get used to sharing setups!

14:12

Sell Setup at the Open??

I’ve just uploaded the above sell setup if price can move up to the 12429 level. It’s the 50% EQZ midline and is confluent with the Open.

If point A is taken from the 12577 level the GZ falls nicely.

The 12355 level is also a key level and is in the way, it might also offer a sell?

However, when you look left the 12429 level was functioning as the TOR last week, let’s see what the afternoon session brings?

 

14:04

Called the level at 12318, missed the trade 🙁

After identifying the DT@12318 I missed the sell trade for the following two reasons:

  1. On the first move up I was waiting for price to test the 12318 level and poke above a wee bit. Did not happen!!
  2. On the second test, I over-analyzed things and thought the 12355 level was the next target. 

If the first move up had gone into the zone between 12318-12327 I was ready with the Trade Tool. However, I then began to doubt if the level/zone would hold if price went back up!!

Oh, the mindset!!

However, Well Done Elaine!!

She took the first move up and sold at the 12318 level and closed out for a decent winner.

10:59

Bulls In Control, Wrong – Bears In Control

Just after 8 am the bears took control, no trades yet though the M5 MAB Sell on a PB to 12281 is interesting?

The screenshot shows why a micro-sell setup took place, the earlier SL was confluent with M1 MAB and it produced a DB.

I talked myself out of it thinking the better value was the M5 MAB on a PB to 12281, SHOULD have taken it, lovely microstructure if you take point A from 12281

06:46

Bulls In Control

Yesterday the bulls broke above the 12429 midline and price currently remains above it in the upper 50% of the EQZ. The break above 12577 failed so we wait to see what next?

Tue 23rd Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:44

Two M5 Buy MABs

I’ve not taken any trades so far today but buys trades were the best value and there were two M5 buy MABs on offer.

The first one, just above the Pw high was the best. As I mentioned earlier, I’m still tuning back into things and like to think that had I put the BOR KZ on using the swing-high wick(s) above the PW High I’d have taken it.

10:53

Highlighting the Micro-Range

I’m tuning back into marking up the charts using the updated Grid. I’m feeling a little rusty after the s/w binge but the juices are starting to flow.

One very useful thing to do is to watch for the Swing Highs/Lows and use the wicks to mark up a KeyZone. Had I done this at the PW High and projected the KZ between the midlines (12485-12494) forward I might have entered a buy trade when the M5 MAB took place.

It ticks the boxes of:

  • Buying at the BOR for the best value.
  • Having a bias to buy trades when the bulls are in control.

The 2R would have been below the TOR, ideal!

As I keep saying, retrospective analysis is SO easy but it’s also vital as it wires the neural networks and develops the pattern recognition skill.

It’s my intention to develop and future this type of intraday commentary now the s/w updates are over. I find it helpful and I hope or members do also.

So far today two juicy salmon have swum by:

  • The buy on the pullback to the PW High.
  • The M5 Buy MAB at the BOR, just above the PW High.

10:32

Price in Micro-Range at the Highs

I passed on the second buy setup, a good entry would have worked out due to the Double-Top.

We are now in a micro-range after the bull move up, the M5 MAB is currently moving price back up a wee bit.

I’d like to see a clear move below the PW High for sells, if the EQZ@12577 is reached we’ll watch for a REVFIB or continuation setup.

08:59

Missed The Micro-FIBCON Buy Setup@PW High 🙁

I missed this decent Buy Micro-FIBCON on the pullback to the PW High.

The A-B impulsive leg was good quality along with the context.

06:06

Price in Range

The DAX remains in a range as shown on the H1 chart. Note the wick on the 2 am candle, price tested the BOR, and came up strongly off it.

For now price is contained between 12429 and 12133.

Note that these levels are the 50% midlines of the Daily EQZ’s

Mon 22nd Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:14

Great But Fast Moving REVFIB

After seeing this REVFIB that Alex mentioned in the comments I decided to mark it up because it was a textbook REVFIB. It had:

  • Price had moved down strongly to a major support level, in this case, it was the midline@12207. See the M30 screenshot below to see that the level had recently supported price.
  • The M1 Sell MAB was a low probability.
  • Price moved to meet the M5 EMA resulting in a sell M5 MAB back down to the GZ.

The tricky bit would have been the speed at which price came down the 61.8 level – perfectly – and reversed back up.

Compare this with the examples on the website.

11:57

M5 Sell MAB Winner, +1.99R

I’m SO pleased with this trade, again, not because it was a winner BUT because I anticipated it using the Grid and was “The Bear” 🙂

After reversing off the High and seeing the M1 Sell MAB@12346 I reasoned that if the D1 EQZ@12281 is the bears’ target then maybe a sell setup will present itself. It did and I really liked the GZ and the RR from the earlier move up. The confluence was excellent:

  • M5 MAB (stopped just short of it).
  • 61.8 level@12330
  • Grid midline@12327
  • Great RR from earlier.
  • M1 Bear Channel midline – see screenshot below for this additional confluence

I’d anticipated this BEFORE point B had fully formed!!

What I had to do was Be The Bear and accept that price might not pullback. It felt good to be SO clear about that. At one point I had to leave my desk so I set up a Sell-Limit just in case – see screenshot below.

My stop was quite generous but I wanted to cover the Grid level above at 12337. I ended up entering using the Trade Tool and 8 minutes later it came in. 

It feels great to start this new phase with the updated Grid and have two winners. I used the Grid and stuck to my rules, the Grid is precise and accurate providing vital guidance  🙂

I’m done trading for the day as I have a few things to do then I have to go cut the grass…

The updated s/w looks good, let me know of anything unexpected, later in the week I’ll provide more details once things have settled down.

Below are two screenshots, both have the M1 Bear Channels overlaid. The first shows the anticipated setup, the second shows a Sell Limit as I had to leave my desk.

10:19

M1 Buy MAB Winner, +2.04R

Very pleased with this trade and not just because it’s a winner.

Today is my first day back trading for a few weeks due to the s/w updates etc. When I set up this morning I realized that I also have to get used to the updated Grid.

Note that /32 midlines are now displayed by default on the M1 time frame. The reason I added them is I noticed there were other micro-levels in play, switch to the M1 time frame, and scroll left. To see what level a midline is hover the mouse over it. They can be removed if preferred but it’s worth getting used to them. On some of the Forex charts such as the EURUSD they are very clear and add an additional level of granularity when trading the M1 and M5 time frames.

When I noticed that price had broken and closed above the 12355 level I watched see what happened. Looking at my higher time frame install I had the M30 chart displayed and it showed VERY clearly how important this midline was – see the screenshot below.

When price began to build a micro-base on this level I overlaid the M1 Bull Channels to see a channel boundary supporting a buy trade – see the screenshot below.

So when price pulled back to the level and channel boundary I took the buy trade, my target was right on the 12392 midline, 7:17 minutes later it came in 🙂

So even though this was not a textbook A-B-C pullback to a very clear GZ I used the updated Grid (horizontal structure first then followed by the M1 Bull channels to look for additional confluence) to guide me. We have something very unique with the Grid, I firmly believe that learning to trust it will lead to profitability and mastery!

See the two screenshots below, one with the channels overlaid, the other is the M30 chart I was using to support the trade. I’ve highlighted the 12355 level to show how precise and important it is.

09:26

Rab’s Winner

I just wanted to comment on this setup that Rab took, it resulted in a winner – see comments below – with his target being just above the midline@12133

It’s a great example of a higher time frame setup with great recent RR structure at precisely the 61.8 level as shown by the top of the GZ.

 

06:55

Overnight FIBCON (H1 MAB)

Well spotted Rab !!

A sell H1 MAB formed overnight on the M15 chart. It has great structure with Grid levels in play:

  • Point A is at Yes High@12445
  • Point is pretty much at the bottom of the D1 EQZ@11992
  • Point C, the 61.8 level is at the High, just below the D1 EQZ@12281

The spread was 5 pips at 5 am but Rab took it, good luck!

06:27

Price Below GZ on Daily

After spending much of last week in the Daily GZ price broke below it on Friday. The 12281 (50%) level is still key, if price cannot break back above it then we may see a move down to 12133

Fri 19th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:53

Grade A M5+M15 Sell MAB!!

I’ve just taken a look at the charts to see a Grade A M5+M15 Sell MAB formed after price failed to move above the TOR@12429 – see earlier blog entry showing the Daily time frame.

This had great structure and great context in that price was coming back down after failing to move above the TOR, also note the Role-Reversal at the Grid level@12392

We are updating the section on range trading, the last few days range-bound Price Action has provided excellent examples.

13:04

Tricky REVFIB after bull spike

The bull spike which produced the new High off the Grid midline@12355 was a clue to the REVFIB being tricky!!

I’ve marked up a typical entry but would have been stopped out due to the overshoot of the GZ. The 61.8 level was ideal as it was at the Grid level of 12411

This is something we must note for the future, a spike like this is a purely technically driven move to a level, in this case, the middle of the current D1 EQZ and top of the range I mentioned at the start of the blog when commenting on the daily chart.

We must learn to be wary of these spikes, they can skew the expected symmetry. However, once the overshoot of the GZ had exhausted itself and price broke back below the 50% level it is reasonable to enter on the brief retrace back up to the 50% level.

If in doubt – stay out 🙂

 

 

 

08:55

Example of Alerts

A great use of alerts is shown. If price moves up to the TOR@Yes High or the BOR  then send an alert to the MT4 Terminal and Mobile device.

To set one up:

  • Drag the bssKeyZone script on to the chart, it will create a silver rectangle.
  • In its properties window set the Description field to # alert text
  • I’ve changed the color to Plum (see below), choose whatever you prefer.
  • Then place it where you want it to trigger and double-click it to unselect (activate) it.

You can then minimize/hide the charts and do other stuff. Turn the volume up on the PC, so long as there’s not any other noise to drown out the alert you can hear it from other rooms.

This is a very useful feature if you’ve decided what levels you’re interested in but don’t want to sit and watch every tick.

Test it out, have a play…

08:51

S/W Updates

Today I will be completing the last few s/w updates, ready for Monday.

07:47

Daily GZ

Price is still contained within the GZ on the Daily chart as shown, the 61.8 level is confluent with the D1 EQZ midline@12429, we are currently in a range between 12429 – 12207

Thu 18th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:44

Nano-REVFIB at High

I’ve been away from my desk for the last 90 mins and returned to see the Nano-REVFIB following the move up to current high which is also a Grid midline@12485.

Very fast-moving but structurally and contextually it was very good and look what happened afterwards. A challenge in real-time but another great example of the REVFIB pattern acting as lift-off for a move in the opposite direction.

I’ve also placed an arrow where Joel was waiting to take the sell at Yes High and the 50% Grid midline@12429.

07:47

Grade A Text Book REVFIB at 3:50am

I’ve just spotted this Grade A REVFIB that took place a few hours ago at 3:50 am. Everything about it is excellent, I’ll not go into any detail but take a quick look at the webpage on REVFIBs and note the characteristics of great setups, e.g.

  • Low probability M1 Sell MAB as price comes off the low.
  • Price reaches the M5 MAB for a possible sell back down to the GZ.

The pullback reaches EXACTLY the 50% level of the Outer FIBCON, confluent with Yes Low and the M5 MAB.

This one was a multiple R setup, shame it was so early on.

See 3rd April and the 14th May example for similarity, these Juicy Salmon MUST be mastered and shared when spotted.

Below is what it looked like on the M5 chart, it shows how strong the move up was after the REVFIB acted as lift-off!

06:53

Price Contained By Daily GZ

Look how price was contained by the GZ yesterday. We are currently at the 50% level which is a D1 EQZ@12281, look-left to see how resistive it was during the big sell-off after price broke below it.

Let’s see what today brings, strong moves away from this level could offer some setups.

Wed 17th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:04

Middle Of Range Sell Low Probability?

I took the sell setup at 12374 without fully concentrating, however, I closed out once I reaccessed the context, it proved a good call.

Why?

If we are in a range then the middle of the range setups that are opposite to the direction price is moving can be low probability. In this case a sell trade against the momentum of the move back up the range.

We will update the section on the website with rules for trading ranges.

One such rule is that (in this case) we favor buy trades over sell trades whilst price is moving back up OR stand aside until price reaches the TOR. We can set alerts to inform us and take a break whilst this plays out.

We can never know for sure what will happen, at times these middle of the range setups work out but we must learn to deal in probabilities and context.

 

10:32

Sharing Comments

I’m about to upload the latest BTC, the Community Blog window has been updated as above. You can add a comment of up to 200 chars if you want.

The ‘Share Comment’ button will notify others that you’ve posted a comment on the blog. 

When new comments are shared you will be alerted and they will automatically be displayed. If you want to look at the comment history at any time use the ‘Comment History’ button.

This is not intended to replace posting comments on the blog, just to allow you to tell others without me sending out a blog update.

However, it can be used to send a simple one-liner if you want.

Start using once you update and we’ll see how it goes. Below is what the display will look like. It’s a floating window showing the current months shares with linefeeds between days.

09:59

 Shae Comment Button

Guy’s, I see you’re using the ‘Share Comment’ button. 

Are you getting notifications?

It’s still in development, will be completed later today.

09:05

 Yes High at Key 61.8 Level

After reading the comments below from Alex and Joel regarding the Daily GZ and Yes High I took a look at what happened on the M1 chart yesterday afternoon – Wow!!

As they commented, by identifying this structure we can reason out that there might be:

  1. A move up to it offering buy setups (Joel)
  2. A possible sell setup if price fails to move above it (Alex)

A sell REVFIB formed with great structure and context 🙂

Note once again that:

  • Point A was at a Grid midline level@12429
  • Point B was at a Grid midline level@12355
  • The GZ 50% level (point C) was at a Grid midline level@12392

This is way beyond coincidence and each day we are seeing how precise the updated Price Action Grid is.

When we get used to seeing these chart patterns (GZs) they offer multiple R as can be seen by what happened. A reasonable target would have been the D1 EQZ@12281.54

The updated s/w will allow us to share more effectively this information. Even though I’ve not been trading the last few days I’ve really enjoyed feeling the synergy that’s developing between us. It’s time to take things to another level 🙂

07:20

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Yesterday’s High was just above the midline of the D1 EQZ@12429, it was also the 61.8 level of the GZ marked up at 12418, when you look left you can see that the midline was in play during last week.

Also, note that the wick on Yesterday’s candle is pretty much the height of the GZ. 

Today I hope to complete the s/w updates ready for release.

Tue 16th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:59

M1 Bull Channels

I’ve just taken a look at the charts and thought I’d see what the M1 Bull channels (plus midlines) look like since the bulls are currently in control.

In particular, note that Alex’s M1 buy MAB was PERFECTLY confluent with a channel boundary. 

I’ve added a few arrows to show where price has clearly interacted with the channels, this is a great example of the ability to add/remove channels from the chart depending on how helpful they are. 

We trade primarily horizontal levels, then we overlay channels to see if they add additional confluence to our trading decisions.

12:25

Great REVFIB following Alex’s M1 MAB Winner

After seeing Alex’s winning trade – see comment below – Elaine also identified it was followed by a great REVFIB sell after price failed to stay above the D1 EQZ@12281

Note that:

  • Point A is precisely on the Grid midline@12318
  • Point B is precisely on the Grid D1 EQZ@12281
  • Point C (50% level of GZ) is precisely on the Grid midline@12300

And finally, price then moved down to the M5 MAB and reversed back up off the Grid midline@12263, the 61.8 level of the earlier M15 Sell GZ.

Having such precise Grid structure does not guarantee success but it provides great guidance once mastered, that’s why we call it ‘The Holy Grid” 🙂

 

09:23

M15 Sell MAB at Precise Levels

I’ve just sat down to see this setup that took place at 8:35 am, another great example of how the updated Grid precisely captures price.

This is the M5 chart, it seems to work very well with the Grid as much of the M1 choppiness is smoothed out. Note the GZ between 12243.99 – 12263.75, it falls EXACTLY between two midlines of the Grid.

This is not a one-off!! I’m seeing it on other markets that I’ve applied the Grid to. Look at yesterday’s blog where I show the Grade A sell from Wed 10th at 2 pm – note the GZ!

If things go well today I will complete this phase of updates, meantime, if you want to use this Grid simply:

  • Load a new GE30.sb chart.
  • Right-click and select indicators.
  • Select bssConsole – Inputs.
  • Set Auto Update Channel Structure & Auto Update Equidistant Structure to true.

The horizontal Grid will automatically be overlaid, it will auto display the midlines based on the time frame you’re on. This can be overridden, I’ll cover that later.

Mon 15th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

06:46

Software Updates

The above screenshot (M15 chart) shows the excellent sell setup that took place at 2 pm last Wednesday that both Elaine and Alex successfully took.

The update I’m working on will introduce something we’ve called the ‘Universal Price Action Grid’, it can be found on all markets and will look exactly the same.

Note how points A, B, and C all form at predefined levels on the Grid. Also, note how well the GZ (and the Role-Reversal) fall within two of the Grid levels (12651 and 12614).

Look closely at how well price interacts with the Grid levels.

(Note the following trade was taken on a demo account as I’m testing out the new environment).

Whilst testing this on other charts late Thursday evening I spotted a sell setup on the AUDUSD M15 chart. I, therefore, set a Sell-Limit order to trigger if price retraced back up to point C overnight.

At 8:55 am Friday morning the trade triggered, 9 hours 43 mins later it closed out at 6:39 pm. Below are the screenshots I took.

What happened was that after overlaying the new Grid on different charts I began to forget what market I was looking at as I was seeing only patterns because each chart looked identical except for the price levels.

This is an exciting evolution of our Pure Price Action approach, I will continue to complete the software updates over the next few days.

The important thing to note as you look at the AUDUSD screenshots below is that the Grid looks exactly the same as on the DAX.

Also, note that these two setups can be anticipated well in advance and shared with the members 🙂

This screenshot shows the sell setup on the M30 chart late Thursday evening, point B was still forming and I really liked the GZ@0.69079

This screenshot shows the next morning, price has retraced back up to the GZ.

This shows the sell limit triggered and a sell trade entered at 8:55 am. Several hours later price finally moves down towards Yes Low with my target just below.

Note how price produces a Double-Top whilst trying and then failing to push above the D1 EQZ@0.69079

This shows the trade complete 🙂

Fri 12th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:13

More Software Development

Wow, what a bearish day yesterday turned out to be!!

Of all the days to be working on software, however, the result will be something that I’m very excited about and will take our trading to another level, I look forward to sharing this with you next week.

So today I’ll be continuing to update the software, good luck trading!

 

Thu 11th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

14:58

Scotty Spice Comments

Hi Guys,

Elaine has added a comment below showing how well the channels capture the Price Action. With Mastery we will use this to our advantage 🙂

08:14

Software Update

Guys, yesterday afternoon I began working on a software update and will continue working on it today as I’m in the zone.

I will be watching things but not trading, I might post an update if I see something worth commenting on.

The update is related to optimizing the horizontal Grid structure to make it clearer than it is now, based on some feedback.

Good luck trading, “Be The Bear” and wait patiently for those juicy salmon like the one that showed up at 2 pm yesterday 🙂 See below.

07:37

Grade A Setup

The screenshot above is of Alex’s winner yesterday. He used a Sell-Limit and let it play out so he didn’t have to sit watching the charts.

Both Elaine and Alex anticipated the setup and had winners. Joel and Rab also spotted it which is exactly what we want to nurture, an environment where we’re all looking for the same trades.

Well done Alex! It was a great end to your day, focus on the process, and how you felt when you identified it.

Below is Elaine’s setup, refer to her comment on yesterdays blog to see it in full screen.

06:27

Bears in control

The bears are in control following yesterday’s sell-off. Note how during the overnight session price moved up to touch the magenta line I put on yesterday.

The daily level of 12283 might act as Role-Reversal based on when it acted as resistance back in late February, see the down arrow.