Daily DAX

Mon 23rd Nov

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:05

Great Topping Pattern

After testing the EQZ 50% level at 13317 a topping pattern formed. I managed to get a small winner using a sell limit and walking away, had I not touched it then I’d still be in the trade, as I type price is just above my 2R.

The much better sell setup I just missed due to my sell limit being just above where the PB reached. 

Note the ‘Clues for best Entry’ comment on the chart, another example where you don’t get the perfect entry and we have to mark things up very precisely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue 3rd Nov

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:55

Sell Loser, -1.00R

I took the aggressive M1 sell MAB after the micro-PB to 11985. It started will until the bull candle at 11:37.

Positives are:

  • Was not a FOMO trade.
  • Did not increase risk, 1R losers are OK and are easily dealt with by the traders equation.

10:57

Buy Loser, -1.00R

Took an aggressive buy on the PB to 12022, it was not FOMO.

It was with the bullish trend and I reasoned 12059 was in range so my 2R was possible.

Did not work out.

09:54

1 Winner, +2.03R, 1 Loser, -0.45R

Today is the US election so lots of drama awaits the markets!!

I took switched to buy mode after the micro DB at 11846 just after 8 am. I had looked to enter on the PB to 11874 on the way up but price stopped short.

I then took the PB to 11911 and decided to use a wide stop to cover the possibility of a deeper PB. This setup was therefore a 2r or 4R depending on entry and stop placement, I went for the 2R based on the bulls targeting 11985.

They did and it worked out 🙂

I then took the sell REVFIB as it had good structure and context, even though the bulls are currently in control. I reduced my risk after it went on my favour, that was a good call this time as the bulls stepped in and moved price back above 11985.

09:24

Yesterday’s Two Trades: +0.34R, -1.11R

I took the M5 Buy MAB at 11763 and closed out once it started to struggle as we’d already had a DT and the 11800 level tested.

After a brief break of 11745 I too the aggressive sell that had great micro-strucutre but was against the bullish mood.

Fri 30th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:36

Two Winners, One Loser, +3.01R

Got off to a good start with a buy FIBCON at the 11504 Grid level.

Point A was taken from Yes Low, point B at the 11578 level – BOTH M30 Grid levels.

Really pleased with the entry using the Trade Tool.

After 8 am price held above Yes Low so I went into buy mode as price moved back the range from yesterday.

Below is the second trade, this one was a loser but I’d take it again.

Why?

I was waiting for a structural break below the 11560 level which we eventually got, the first PB reached the first line of RR as shown by the black line, this was an M1+M5 MAB.

I was wanting a deeper PB to the 11578 level which came later after the M15 buy MAB sent price back up. That one failed but I’d take it again the RR was excellent. 

Below is my third trade, a buy REVFIB winner 🙂

I was really pleased with this one as I’d set alerts to let me know when either the TOR or BOR was in play.

When I heard the alert I came to my desk and watched and was rewarded with a juicy salmon to end the day – week and month.

This week we’ve seen a few buy REVFIBs and after last week where I unable to focus and execute them this week has been the perfect turn-around 🙂

Thu 29th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

20:13

My Best Day So Far… +10.48R 🙂

Today I am +10.48R up from seven winning trades, zero losers 🙂

My best day to date!!

All the trades were based on the M30 Grid levels.

It was preceded by two decent days.

Below are the trades for today.

The first one was before 8 am, I’d missed two earlier sell setups but took this one on the PB to the Open plus the 11541 level.

The second one was a sell limit based on a Triple-Top at the 11652 level.

Trade three was a sell M1 MAB for +0.95R

Trade four was a sell M1 MAB for +2.01R

Trade five was a buy REVFIB for +0.36R, I should have left this alone as it went on to reach the 2R target at the Open.

Trade six was a buy M1 MAB for +1.66R, had I left alone it would have reached the 2R target.

Trade seven was a sell REVFIB for +2.72R

All the trades were based on the M30 Grid levels.

Wed 21st Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:40

Not tuned in at all today!!

Below are my analysis and thoughts on my trading this morning.

The two losing sell MABs above did have decent structure BUT not decent context.

The M5 MAB was better value than the M1 MAB but price was still coming up off the Low AND a major EQZ level at 12577, this could be likened to when price is coming up after testing the bottom of a range.

The M5 sell MAB is often part of a buy REVFIB setup but not this time so I’m ok with that trade. We only need 40% of these to work out for them to be worth taking.

Below is what FOMO looks like. I felt the buy REVFIB setup at Yes Low was excellent and mentally overinvested it in so when it failed and then it looked like a triple-bottom was in play I re-entered.

When that failed FOMO took over and I chased price and entered a sell NOT based on my rules. I nearly got away with it for 2R but price reversed so I closed out for +0.93R and walked away. 

FOMO is a VERY powerful emotion and therefore can sabotage our trading.

So, had I been managing my emotions and reading the context I’d have:

  • Taken a 1R loser on the first buy REVFIB setup and been free to maybe take one of the micro sells on the way down to 12577 instead of taking the M1 sell MAB when price was reversing of the Low.
  • Probably still taken the M5 sell MAB and ideally followed it with a buy REVFIB.

As I had a poor nights sleep due to another change in sleeping arrangements I’ll not beat myself up too much 🙂

The “Trading with the Energy” page describes the range rules that would have hopefully kept me out of at least the M1 sell MAB at 12577.

Both Joel and I took the same losing MABs and Joel alluded to a great point in the comments section.

So long as we follow our process and take setups that conform to our rules that’s ok, losers are part of the game.

I marvel at how I will miss out on a winner by being too fussy – like yesterday afternoon – then take trades when FOMO kicks in.

We must master our emotions!!

Tue 20th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:28

M5 Buy MAB Winner, +2.01R

After waiting for the perfect entry on the earlier buy REVFIB off the move down to the BOR  – see screenshot below – I took the next buy setup.

The A-B leg moved up to 12790 to produce a GZ right on the 12762 level, a key midline – see M30 and lower – so I waited for the PB and entered the buy which ended up being an M5 MAB but it was more of a FIBCON as the M5 MA was very flat.

Note that this time I did not wait for the PERFECT PB to the 61.8 level which of course would have worked out this time 🙂

Whilst waiting for the PB I read my Mark Douglas trading plan notes and was SO pleased I took the trade. Not just because it worked out but because it ticked all the boxes – win or lose – and I did not allow the emotion of missing the last trade to affect me.

Below is the buy REVFIB on the M5 chart where I was too fussy and it got away.

13:38

Micro M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.77R

This was again aggressive but this time the M1 MAB was confluent with the 12799 level.

My earlier buy limit for the REVFIB did not trigger before price moved so it negated the setup for me.

My stop was a bit tight so had to ride out the 12805 level before it finally sold off. I moved my target to just above the 12762 level and got +2.77R but of course, there was more on offer at the 12725 level 🙂

Note how technical the DAX is, just after this screenshot there was a near-perfect reversal at the 12725 level, I did consider this for my target but felt it was being too greedy!!

11:34

Micro M1 Sell MAB Loser, -1.00R

This was aggressive but ended up being the wrong side of the 12799 level.

It had decent micro Role-Reversal at 12790 and I would have considered going for multiple R down to Yes Low but not this time.

07:11

Near bottom of Daily Bear Channel

Yesterday price was contained PERFECTLY between the bear channel midline and the bottom of the bear channel as well as the EQZ midlines of 13021 and 12725.

Mon 19th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

09:41

Early Sell REVFIB off High

The first day in the new environment, it will need further tweaking for me to be at my desk for 8 am. Below is my retrospective read of the PA, had I been trading I like to think I’d have entered a sell trade??

This morning is a great example of why it’s worth being ready at 8 am (if possible due to the London effect), price moved up strongly to test the Daily structure shown above, see the arrow at the bear channel midline, and the EQZ midline@13021.

Below is the M1 chart marked up with the PA, I watched this on a tablet so did not have the Price Action Grid but I was able to see the sell REVFIB off the High but without the Grid, I was not able to appreciate the context and why it had multiple R potential.

A very important thing to point out is that there was a micro Double-Top at the High, when we see double/triple tops/bottoms at key levels we MUST be ready for a reversal. Their presence increases the probability that price cannot continue up/down at that time and as the saying goes “What can’t go up must go down” and vice-versa.

It was another great example of using the higher time frame structure/context to guide us on the lower time frame.

Mon 12th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:07

Decent M1 Micro Buy MAB

I’ve just taken a look at what’s happened over the last few hours and immediately spotted a Micro Buy M1 MAB after the move above the PW High.

It had great structure and context, I like to think I’d have taken this in real-time.

These micro 2R setups are 2R setups!!

I’m SO looking forward to the routine I’ve got planned whilst living in Scotland. It will be a serious all-day “Being The Bear” daily binge 🙂 🙂

 

08:50

Decent Sell Setup

This retrospective analysis is easy 🙂

I’ve just taken a look at the PA and spotted that the earlier M5 Sell MAB was point A in a decent sell setup that followed.

Point C was a perfect PB to the midline at 13095

08:19

Superb Sell Setup

I just spotted a superb M5 MAB Sell setup that took place around 7:38 after price failed to hold the session high just after 7 am.

Note the following PA in play:

  • Left Shoulder at PW High/Yes High.
  • Followed by a Double-Top at Grid intersection (13132 plus M15 channels).
  • PB up to PW High/Yes High sell zone.
  • Note the Precise Right Shoulder at PW High plus M5 MAB.
  • This all resulted in a move back down into the M15 channel to the pip!!

The Price Action Grid captured ALL the key PA!

We are on our way to mastering these in real-time, the context was a multiple R setup due to the context of price moving back down the channel.

07:09

Still Bullish

Still bullish, will we price reach 13169 today?

Fri 9th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

07:27

Bulls in control

Yesterday the bulls pushed up into the bull channel on the way to 13169, will they target it – or higher – today?

Thu 8th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:48

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -1.01R

This one lasted 43 minutes so quite a battle but did not work out.

I felt it had enough going for it as the M15 channel intersection was also in play along with the 12984 midline.

08:02

Are we going to 13169?

Will the bulls be able to target 13169 today?

Note on the daily chart above how price has been interacting with the daily channels.

Also, when I got home yesterday evening I took a look at the afternoons PA and immediately noticed a micro decent quality M1 Buy MAB as price moved back above 12873.

What made it worth taking is that point B is a HH than the previous one at 12882 and the HHs and HLs created decent structure for the M1 MAB at the GZ.

These micro setups are powerful in that if you spot them and reason that 12910 for example might be a target then multiple R is available.

So, after Being The Bear for a few hours the reward is 3R-4R may be off one trade – see the Trade Tool.