Daily DAX

Fri 17th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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07:07

Stuck at the PW & PM Highs

We are stuck in a range between the PM High and the PW High with the EQZ@12873 in between them. 

These are tough trading days and good timing for me as I’ve had to spend the last few days preparing the online demo of the WSC today.

Maybe today either bulls or bears will take over?

Thu 16th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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07:35

Price at the EQZ 12873

Yesterday price broke above the PM High stopping just short of the EQZ 50% level at 13021. It came back down offering a great sell at 12947 and is now back below 12873 at the PW High.

NOTE: We have the presentation Friday morning so will be continuing to prepare for that today.

Wed 15th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

07:26

Important KeyZone on the Hourly Chart

The KeyZone shown at 12799 may be in play if price continues to move down and test the low.

If it holds we may see a buy REVFIB, if not we may see a sell setup?

07:05

All the way down, then back up.

Once again the Daily EQZs contain price. This is why we must learn to trust the Gird and its levels.

Can the bulls break above 12873 and the PM High?

Tue 14th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:16

Tough Day – Great Buy REVFIB

I’ve just taken a look to see what’s been happening and part from the earlier buy REVFIB that Alex took there’s not been much going on as the market digests the late sell-off yesterday.

For me, there have been only two decent pieces of price action so far:

  1. Just after 8 am the current session high was set within a KZ that I already had marked up from last week, similar to the one from yesterday but lower down. See the H1 screenshot below.

    Note again how I’ve used the candle wicks to define the height of the KZ and then projected it forward. Also note how on the M1 chart it fits between the midlines.

    There was no REVFIB on the way back down and taking it at the level is not easy though maybe deciding if price penetrated it enough to allow you to place your stop above it there would be decent value.

    Also, just like yesterday, these KZs are precise and we must learn to trust the Grid more and more to get more out of it.

  2. The REVFIB that followed after the move down to set the current session Low was a high-quality one. Point A is taken from the Low where there was very strong support at Yes Low, the impulsive A-B leg that moved back above the EQZ@12577 and the Open shows this.

    As per our REVFIB characteristics, this included the M5 Sell MAB at point B. Alex was SO close to getting 4R out of this.

    The GZ held price at point C with four tests of the 61.8 level at 12555. This was one where you might wait for at least one wick to show support is there at the level then enter on the next test.

    This not easy in real-time as the candle will be red BUT we either trust structure or we don’t. If we do we can get such good value out of a setup due to having a tight and precise stop.

Since then we’ve been in a micro-range offering no decent setups.

Below is the H1 chart showing the KeyZone mentioned above.

We MUST display these all the time and factor them into our trading decisions, the precise manner in which price interacts with them shows that the big players and their trading algorithms are using them.

07:44

Semiconductor Stuff.

Just to let you know that last week we had an enquiry from a company in Malaysia regarding our semiconductor s/w. They found us via a google search and it resulted in us having a call with them last Friday morning. We are one of several options they are looking at.

We have no idea if it will lead to anything but this morning we had an email asking us if we could do an online demo of the s/w for them. This means that us being a two-person outfit with me the sole developer in VB6 (legacy language) has not put them off.

I’ve not done anything like this for years so have to go prepare a demo for them. We want to do this asap so today I’ll not be trading but will be watching things and maybe posting an update.

 

 

06:37

Late Sell-Off Yesterday

After another rangy day price sold off strongly at 18:45 onwards yesterday evening. It moved back down to the 12577 level so today we wait to see if this continues.

If it does note the PW Low and the KZ highlighted at the EQZ 50% level at 12429.

Mon 13th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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14:10

Why the 12799 level was a good sell setup.

Elaine’s sell at 12799 has just come in and the H1 screenshot shows why it was a great level to consider selling.

Note how the KZ I’ve overlaid is based on the wicks from last week – look-left.

The only thing to have considered is the top of the KZ at 12817 but price stopped at 12803 then tried again  – DT – and very gradually moved back down.

It was painfully slow when you’re in the trade but it produced a series of HLs and LLs, two of which were Micro-FIBCONs – See M1 Chart Below.

Well done Elaine, Joel, and Alex for taking the setups!

13:37

Tight Micro Structure

I returned from the dentist just as price was testing the 12799 level. Decided to watch and support those who took the sell setup. It eventually played out, just very slowly.

After the break below the Open a micro-REVFIB formed, it was decent as the DT at 12803 was a clue to the bulls struggling.

These are tough trading conditions but there are some very small salmon in the river 🙂

10:04

M1 Sell MAB@Yes High Loser, -1.05R

I took the sell at the PB to Yes High as it was also an M1 MAB and had good structure.

It took nearly 20 minutes to play out so the GZ was active but did not work out.

In my mind I was thinking of the MarkD teachings, my edge was present so I took it. Yes High is a key intraday level, the traders I needed to make the trade a winner did not show up this time 🙂

 

08:34

M5 MAB Sell Winner, +1.97R

Just after 7 am the bulls tested 12873 as mentioned earlier.  At 8 am the bears pushed price briefly below the Open, this produced a clear A-B leg with a GZ confluent with an existing KZ I had on the M30/H1 chart – see below.

The 61.8 level@12817 was perfectly confluent with the top of the KZ PLUS an M1 Bear Channel was also in play supporting the sell – so I took it.

My 2R target was above the Open and that proved key as price reversed back up before reaching it. Below is the H1 chart showing why I really liked the sell setup at the top of the white KZ at 12817 – this is a midline on the M1/M5 time frames.

My target was also in the GZ for a buy, Well Done Alex for taking that trade for a 2R winner 🙂

Once again the market is lacking direction and therefore ranging. The EQZ@12873 and the PM High above it are possible places where REVFIBs might form if price reaches them but fails to hold above?

06:07

Price Still Moving Up

Price is creeping up towards the EQZ@12873, this level is in between the PW High and the PM High.

If the bears are waiting we could see some selling and a REVFIB??

Fri 10th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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10:43

Great Sell REVFIB

I did not see this REVFIB off the 12577 and Open earlier but spotted it immediately when I was able to look at the charts about 10:15, it’s a quality setup with the midline at 12540 acting as precise RR, this is confirmed when you look at this level on the M30 time frame.

Well done Joel for taking this one, I like to think that had I been trading I’d have taken it?

The 12429 EQZ 50% level mentioned earlier has so far held after being tested between 7-8 am, it’s still range behaviour so REVFIBs are the ones to look for.

The conference call earlier was semiconductor-related, as a result I have an action to go research a few things so I’m not able to trade today.

 

 

07:14

Will The 12429 level hold?

After a down day yesterday price is sat right on the EQZ 50% level at 12429. This is currently a support level as shown, if it fails then 12281 is the next daily target for the bears.

 

Thu 9th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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14:52

Two Sell Trades, 1 BE, 1 winner, +2.78R

I had to switch to other projects earlier but decided to take a look at the PA just after 13:30 to see a possible REVFIB if price broke back below the 12688 level.

It was also an M1 Sell MAB with decent RR. A few minutes before the US came online I decided to BE the trade as it’s spiked so much lately and I didn’t fancy a loser. Just before the US open, I got stopped only to see it go on to be a winner 🙁

A major battle followed but when the bears broke below the PW High I decided to watch for a clear PB, it eventually came along with the M1 MAB so I took the trade and based on the M15 channels and the 12633 level I got +2.78R 🙂

Even though I was not planning to trade when I saw the setups at the highs I thought of my battle with point 4 of the Traders Creed:

 I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation

So I acted and let the edge play out, it was nice to at last have a decent winner after a very poor week so far mainly due to not taking trades that qualify due to overthinking.

The current Price Action is not easy to trade due to so much range behavior, the best way to trade it is to identify the TOR and BOR and look for REVFIBs as per the rules for Trading Ranges.

10:10

Sell REVFIB Breakeven

I passed on the first sell PB to the PW High as it looked too aggressive due the previous RR and an M1 Buy MAB had just taken place, it would have worked out.

When the LL at the M5 Buy MAB formed at 12633 I took the PB to the GZ. I got a great entry but failed to get anything out of it as it just failed to close out by 0.5 pip before reversing. I should have closed out for maybe 1.50R but the 12633 level held and I ended up with a BE trade.

However, tough trading conditions just now and I’m pleased to have taken the best setup I’ve seen so far today.

06:04

Still above 12577

Price remains above 12577 after finding support yesterday in the KZ shown, just above the 50% midline@12429 of the EQZ below.

Neither buyers nor sellers are currently able to take control so price is very much range-bound.

Wed 8th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:24

Sell Loser, -0.98R

I took an aggressive sell at Yes Low that was not a good value trade, the value setup was the PB to the Open. This had a great structure, context, and GZ.

I’m going through a mindset shift where I’m working to take trades rather than pass on them which is what I’m doing a lot right now only to see them go on to win. However, this was aggressive, and had I been at my desk I’d have taken the sell at the Open, like I did earlier after the first loser.

Off to the dentist now and out for the afternoon.

 

 

08:36

Bulls Working Hard

If the bulls can reach the PW High we have a decent RR zone as shown.

07:50

Two sell trades, 1 loser, 1 winner

The break below Yes Low put me in sell mode so I took the PB to Yes Low, did not work out BUT I then took the PB to the Open as it had a great GZ.

Both trades I felt were good enough to take, my area of challenge right now is taking setups that qualify without reservation or hesitation.

It’s not easy taking another trade so soon after a loser but that’s the style of trading we do and we have to trust our edge to play out over a series of trades.

 

06:14

Bearish Day Yesterday

Yesterday there was no attempt by the bulls to test the PM High, instead, the bears took over pushing price below 12577, where it currently is.

I’ve left the two GZs marked up from last to see what effect they might have. The 12577 level is key, if the bulls are unable to push back above it then we might be headed lower.

Below is the H1 chart with a possible Bullish GZ? I’ve taken point A from the EQZ 50% midline@12133, it’s also possible to take it higher up at around the 12232 level which would mean the GZ is higher up.

If price sells off this GZ may come into play?

Tue 7th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

07:45

Passed on the Micro-REVFIB 🙁

I sent out a Trade Setup Alert – see below – but failed to take it!

Whilst price was below the PW High and in the KeyZone I was hesitant, my mental battle is point 4 of the Traders Creed.

4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

I will overcome this !!

06:50

Watch the PW High

If price moves down to test the PW High we might see a REVFIB like yesterday. The zone highlighted has great RR.

06:39

Superb Micro-REVFIB Yesterday at the PW High

I was out all yesterday afternoon so did not see this superb Micro-REVFIB when price moved down to test the PW High at 15:30

This is a great example of where we’d expect to see one due to the context, the RR was excellent when you look at it on the M30 or H1 charts, see the midline@12651

Mon 6th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:15

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -1.00R

I passed on the M1 Sell MAB but liked he M5 MAB which was confluent with the bottom of the earlier range. The RR looked excellent on the M5 and M15 charts.

Price was coming up off the H1 MAB but it was a decent PB, just didn’t work out.

 

09:18

Spike – Channel – Range

If you’ve read the page called “Trade With The Energy” that I began over the weekend I mentioned that the market is always in one of three phases, Spike, Channel, or Range and that they take place on all time frames due to the fractal nature of price action.

Well, this morning we have an example shown on the M5 chart.

05:52

Bullish Start To Monday

The bullish mood continues, the PM High is the next target above the 12873 EQZ level.

At both these levels, we will watch for REVFIBs.