Daily DAX

Thu 25th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

21:00

Superb Sell REVFIB at 12281

I returned from our evening ride to see yet another Grade A REVFIB that took place at about 18:30, it had the following characteristics:

  • A precise bounce off the EQZ@12281 (point A)
  • A low probability M1 MAB
  • An M5 Buy MAB (point B)
  • This produced a great GZ with great RR

Just look at the chart and see how the Grid levels guide price, this is truly the “Holy Grid” illuminating the pathway as we “Be The Bear” waiting patiently for Juicy Salmon to swim buy.

The screenshot below shows what happened afterward, when price broke back above 12281, a tasty buy setup formed. Point A could be taken 12281 or just below.

Also note the M5 Buy MAB (red line) when price came back down to test the GZ after setting new High.

15:41

Minor s/w Update

The update will now make use of the additional characters you can add to a screenshot as shown.

This will avoid having to send any additional info via the Comment Share feature.

BTW, note how the bulls managed to push above our KeyZone from earlier, the PB was a buy but it was not perfect M1 Buy MAB as the GZ was below.

However, based on how key the zone was you might have fancied taking the buy at the PB to 12170.

Below is the H1 chart showing the 12207 level – TOR – that the bulls were targeting, another example of how technical the DAX is on a range day.

14:38

Great example of RR KeyZone

I decided to make a minor update to the s/w for use with the Trade Setup feature after my lunch break so I was not looking at the charts.

I heard Elaine’s phone alarm only to find out she’d set a Sell Limit order if price came back up to the 12170 level. She was away from her desk at the time, hence the Sell Limit.

When I looked at my charts I saw what she’d done and ended up with a 2R winner in a few minutes.

She marked up the FIB tool as shown, the GZ was just below the KeyZone from earlier that I’d marked up based on the SH at 7 am.

This is a superb example of:

  • How a KeyZone based on a SH, SL or GZ from early in the session comes into play later on.
  • Using a Sell Limit to catch a salmon when you’re away from your desk.

Price has remained in a micro-range since the US came online.

I will release updates for both the BTC and MT4 modules very soon.

 

11:16

One M5 Sell MAB Loser, One M5 Sell MAB Winner!

Wow, what a fun 30 minutes 🙂

I sent out the Trade Setup for a possible M5 Buy MAB on a PB to the RR zone from earlier.  I took it, 32 seconds later it was toast.

I then marked up the A-B bear leg to see that the GZ was confluent with the RR zone if the bulls could push price back up. This meant a possible sell setup would form so I took a screenshot and sent that out.

The bulls had a fair bit of work to do at that point, in particular moving back above the Open which was tempting to sell at due to the wicks showing it was a battle zone.

However, I reasoned that the best value was the GZ and that the market is very technical at the moment so “Be The Bear” and Watch, Wait, Anticipate!

It paid off, I entered the sell once price poked into the zone. I’m back to being -0.28R on the day but pleased that I’m following my process as I’m still getting used to using the updated PAG (Price Action Grid).

We must keep following our plan, rules, and process and let the traders equation take care of things.

Also, yesterday evening we went for a ride and I listened to a great interview with the legendary Mark Douglas (Trading in the Zone), it was perfect timing for me.

Why?

My challenge right now is my mindset and learning to think like a professional. We ABSOLUTELY have a great edge – BUT – that does not guarantee success. 

We have to develop the mindset of a Pro and FULLY define and accept the risk then let things play out.

We must also understand at a deep deep subconscious level that each trade is statistically independent of all those before it and all those after it but so long as we have a genuine edge – which we do – we will be profitable.

Yesterday I passed on two winning setups due to a mindset issue, today I applied what I listened to and worked hard at removing emotions and took the trades where my edge was in play. 

Note: My first trade was not our edge in play, it was an aggressive punt on the momentum, I managed it accordingly for a BE.

This a highly recommended watch, link below.

 

10:18

12207 Level on H1 Chart

The H1 chart shows how key the 12207 level is. My buy trade had its target just above it, that trade would have come in had my stop been a pip or two lower.

Another great example of the precision of the updated Price Action Grid to guide us in our trading 🙂

09:48

Buy Loser, -1.39R

I’ve taken two trades, a BE and buy loser.

The BE was an aggressive sell at 11985 based on the speed of the move down to it. I’ve seen price storm on down but due to the 61.8 level on the Daily – see earlier post –  I was very wary and closed out as soon as it struggled to go lower, that was a good call.

I then marked up the possible REVFIB with my GZ as shown, however, Yes Low was in play. I liked the idea of a PB to 12000 but it never happened. 

If you take point A from 11985 instead of the Low then the GZ was confluent with where price PB to and Yes Low.

I was in buy mode but could not see a safe entry due to the strength of the move up. When the first decent PB came to an earlier SH just after 7am the RR and M1 Buy MAB meant I entered a buy trade.

It struggled so I decided to protect my stop with the Open, talk about FINE MARGINS!!

As soon as I got stopped out price moved back on up – that’s trading!

In summary, the ENERGY of the Daily FIB, and GZ I mentioned earlier sent price back up very strongly, it was a challenge to find an entry without chasing price and breaking rules.

06:50

Bears In Control Yesterday

A big down day yesterday leaves us currently in the middle of the EQZ@12133.  I stopped trading after a winning sell trade yesterday afternoon but came back 2 hours later to see that the bears took full control after the break below 12281 offering a few decent sell setups, wished I kept trading 🙁

We do have a GZ (magenta Fib Tool) as shown that may come into play if price moves down to the bottom of the EQZ@11985?

Wed 24th June

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End of Day Review

+-0.00%

No trades taken today.

0 winners, 0 losers, 0 break even.

08:35

Best sell trade of your life!

Price action has been challenging today. I waited for many setups to form but couldn’t find any value yet.

The screenshot below would have been a great sell, but a very hard one to take to be honest.

I doubt I will take a trade today as I need to leave early, it’s a weird but necessary sensation to experience, as it is far better not to trade than trade a poor setup.

Still waiting for a potential REVFIB to be seen better on the M15 chart, let’s see if we have a salmon there.  

00:00

Wed 24th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:37

At Last!! An M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.01R

After a day of just missing or passing on what turned out to be winners, I finally pulled the trigger on an M1 Sell MAB after the bears regained control just after the US came online.

I almost took the first M1 MAB but wanted a PB to 12263, TOO Fussy!

However, I marked up the fast-moving micro-M1 MAB that followed and took it. It did come back up briefly but it worked out, the M1 Bear Channels played their part – see below.

I’m done for the day, need some sunshine and a break. One winner is fine but I should have bagged at least another, the salmon were in the river and I called the excellent sell zone at 12318  🙂

Note: Fast-moving setups like this are difficult to markup, screenshot and upload without affecting focus. I’ll do my best as I get used to sharing setups!

14:12

Sell Setup at the Open??

I’ve just uploaded the above sell setup if price can move up to the 12429 level. It’s the 50% EQZ midline and is confluent with the Open.

If point A is taken from the 12577 level the GZ falls nicely.

The 12355 level is also a key level and is in the way, it might also offer a sell?

However, when you look left the 12429 level was functioning as the TOR last week, let’s see what the afternoon session brings?

 

14:04

Called the level at 12318, missed the trade 🙁

After identifying the DT@12318 I missed the sell trade for the following two reasons:

  1. On the first move up I was waiting for price to test the 12318 level and poke above a wee bit. Did not happen!!
  2. On the second test, I over-analyzed things and thought the 12355 level was the next target. 

If the first move up had gone into the zone between 12318-12327 I was ready with the Trade Tool. However, I then began to doubt if the level/zone would hold if price went back up!!

Oh, the mindset!!

However, Well Done Elaine!!

She took the first move up and sold at the 12318 level and closed out for a decent winner.

10:59

Bulls In Control, Wrong – Bears In Control

Just after 8 am the bears took control, no trades yet though the M5 MAB Sell on a PB to 12281 is interesting?

The screenshot shows why a micro-sell setup took place, the earlier SL was confluent with M1 MAB and it produced a DB.

I talked myself out of it thinking the better value was the M5 MAB on a PB to 12281, SHOULD have taken it, lovely microstructure if you take point A from 12281

06:46

Bulls In Control

Yesterday the bulls broke above the 12429 midline and price currently remains above it in the upper 50% of the EQZ. The break above 12577 failed so we wait to see what next?

Tue 23rd June

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End of Day Review

+0.02%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 0 losers, 3 break even.

08:43

Breakeven sell at the top – +0.02R

Above the PW High there was a level of good role reversal, which was the 12500 level, confluent also with the price grid.

My sell trade was above +1R but found support and came back up. For these trades, I promised myself to always keep a tight stop loss. What I need to improve is to take profit out of these moves.

11:30

Failed sell at the top | -0.27R

Yet again! Didn’t take profits when I was around +1.5R, and a  tight made the trade to be closed right on a reversal point. Now price is below the channel boundary at 12577.51, surpassing my 2R level. 

12:01

Bad sell trade below support level | +0.27R

I do think that price could go lower from that point, but we never know how will that happen. Frustrated watching price breaking the level that was acting as support, I sold on the way down. 

I closed it mannually as it is not the kind of trades I should get involved. 

Tue 23rd Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:44

Two M5 Buy MABs

I’ve not taken any trades so far today but buys trades were the best value and there were two M5 buy MABs on offer.

The first one, just above the Pw high was the best. As I mentioned earlier, I’m still tuning back into things and like to think that had I put the BOR KZ on using the swing-high wick(s) above the PW High I’d have taken it.

10:53

Highlighting the Micro-Range

I’m tuning back into marking up the charts using the updated Grid. I’m feeling a little rusty after the s/w binge but the juices are starting to flow.

One very useful thing to do is to watch for the Swing Highs/Lows and use the wicks to mark up a KeyZone. Had I done this at the PW High and projected the KZ between the midlines (12485-12494) forward I might have entered a buy trade when the M5 MAB took place.

It ticks the boxes of:

  • Buying at the BOR for the best value.
  • Having a bias to buy trades when the bulls are in control.

The 2R would have been below the TOR, ideal!

As I keep saying, retrospective analysis is SO easy but it’s also vital as it wires the neural networks and develops the pattern recognition skill.

It’s my intention to develop and future this type of intraday commentary now the s/w updates are over. I find it helpful and I hope or members do also.

So far today two juicy salmon have swum by:

  • The buy on the pullback to the PW High.
  • The M5 Buy MAB at the BOR, just above the PW High.

10:32

Price in Micro-Range at the Highs

I passed on the second buy setup, a good entry would have worked out due to the Double-Top.

We are now in a micro-range after the bull move up, the M5 MAB is currently moving price back up a wee bit.

I’d like to see a clear move below the PW High for sells, if the EQZ@12577 is reached we’ll watch for a REVFIB or continuation setup.

08:59

Missed The Micro-FIBCON Buy Setup@PW High 🙁

I missed this decent Buy Micro-FIBCON on the pullback to the PW High.

The A-B impulsive leg was good quality along with the context.

06:06

Price in Range

The DAX remains in a range as shown on the H1 chart. Note the wick on the 2 am candle, price tested the BOR, and came up strongly off it.

For now price is contained between 12429 and 12133.

Note that these levels are the 50% midlines of the Daily EQZ’s

Mon 22nd June

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End of Day Review

+1.06%

4 trades taken.

1 winner, 1 loser, 2 break even.

09:31

Failed sell at TOR | -1.05R

Price was ranging for one hour at the time I took the trade, therefore I waited for it to arrive at the top of the range that was acting as good upside resistance, but it just didn’t work. 

10:10

M1 FIBCON | Breakeven +0.02R

It was a poorly managed winner… Glad that I took it, sad that I let it go empty handed! 

The good news is: easy to fix, just don’t touch your trade.

14:56

M5 MAB Sell winner | +1.68R

The M5 MAB worked almost to perfection. If you see my trade tool, the entry level was meant to be substantially higher, therefore my original 2R target was well above my final +1.68R.

But I don’t want to focus on that: I think that for the first time I’ve experienced a textbook Reversal FIBCON, a setup I’ve searched for and never succeeded! I was sooo focused on closing my trade that I completely missed it, even having already the FibTool in position, exactly as the screenshot. Look how perfect was the reversal at the 61.8 level, bloody amazing….! That was THE trade, a 2R winner in less than 120 seconds.

Mon 22nd Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:14

Great But Fast Moving REVFIB

After seeing this REVFIB that Alex mentioned in the comments I decided to mark it up because it was a textbook REVFIB. It had:

  • Price had moved down strongly to a major support level, in this case, it was the midline@12207. See the M30 screenshot below to see that the level had recently supported price.
  • The M1 Sell MAB was a low probability.
  • Price moved to meet the M5 EMA resulting in a sell M5 MAB back down to the GZ.

The tricky bit would have been the speed at which price came down the 61.8 level – perfectly – and reversed back up.

Compare this with the examples on the website.

11:57

M5 Sell MAB Winner, +1.99R

I’m SO pleased with this trade, again, not because it was a winner BUT because I anticipated it using the Grid and was “The Bear” 🙂

After reversing off the High and seeing the M1 Sell MAB@12346 I reasoned that if the D1 EQZ@12281 is the bears’ target then maybe a sell setup will present itself. It did and I really liked the GZ and the RR from the earlier move up. The confluence was excellent:

  • M5 MAB (stopped just short of it).
  • 61.8 level@12330
  • Grid midline@12327
  • Great RR from earlier.
  • M1 Bear Channel midline – see screenshot below for this additional confluence

I’d anticipated this BEFORE point B had fully formed!!

What I had to do was Be The Bear and accept that price might not pullback. It felt good to be SO clear about that. At one point I had to leave my desk so I set up a Sell-Limit just in case – see screenshot below.

My stop was quite generous but I wanted to cover the Grid level above at 12337. I ended up entering using the Trade Tool and 8 minutes later it came in. 

It feels great to start this new phase with the updated Grid and have two winners. I used the Grid and stuck to my rules, the Grid is precise and accurate providing vital guidance  🙂

I’m done trading for the day as I have a few things to do then I have to go cut the grass…

The updated s/w looks good, let me know of anything unexpected, later in the week I’ll provide more details once things have settled down.

Below are two screenshots, both have the M1 Bear Channels overlaid. The first shows the anticipated setup, the second shows a Sell Limit as I had to leave my desk.

10:19

M1 Buy MAB Winner, +2.04R

Very pleased with this trade and not just because it’s a winner.

Today is my first day back trading for a few weeks due to the s/w updates etc. When I set up this morning I realized that I also have to get used to the updated Grid.

Note that /32 midlines are now displayed by default on the M1 time frame. The reason I added them is I noticed there were other micro-levels in play, switch to the M1 time frame, and scroll left. To see what level a midline is hover the mouse over it. They can be removed if preferred but it’s worth getting used to them. On some of the Forex charts such as the EURUSD they are very clear and add an additional level of granularity when trading the M1 and M5 time frames.

When I noticed that price had broken and closed above the 12355 level I watched see what happened. Looking at my higher time frame install I had the M30 chart displayed and it showed VERY clearly how important this midline was – see the screenshot below.

When price began to build a micro-base on this level I overlaid the M1 Bull Channels to see a channel boundary supporting a buy trade – see the screenshot below.

So when price pulled back to the level and channel boundary I took the buy trade, my target was right on the 12392 midline, 7:17 minutes later it came in 🙂

So even though this was not a textbook A-B-C pullback to a very clear GZ I used the updated Grid (horizontal structure first then followed by the M1 Bull channels to look for additional confluence) to guide me. We have something very unique with the Grid, I firmly believe that learning to trust it will lead to profitability and mastery!

See the two screenshots below, one with the channels overlaid, the other is the M30 chart I was using to support the trade. I’ve highlighted the 12355 level to show how precise and important it is.

09:26

Rab’s Winner

I just wanted to comment on this setup that Rab took, it resulted in a winner – see comments below – with his target being just above the midline@12133

It’s a great example of a higher time frame setup with great recent RR structure at precisely the 61.8 level as shown by the top of the GZ.

 

06:55

Overnight FIBCON (H1 MAB)

Well spotted Rab !!

A sell H1 MAB formed overnight on the M15 chart. It has great structure with Grid levels in play:

  • Point A is at Yes High@12445
  • Point is pretty much at the bottom of the D1 EQZ@11992
  • Point C, the 61.8 level is at the High, just below the D1 EQZ@12281

The spread was 5 pips at 5 am but Rab took it, good luck!

06:27

Price Below GZ on Daily

After spending much of last week in the Daily GZ price broke below it on Friday. The 12281 (50%) level is still key, if price cannot break back above it then we may see a move down to 12133

Fri 19th June

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End of Day Review

-1.00%

4 trades taken.

0 winners, 1 loser, 3 break even.

10:47

10:52

M1 Double Top | +0.08R

Rushed Breakout trades x 2 | -0.88R

First trade +0.08R: I had marked the what I thought was going to be a double top with the pink / purple lines in the shape of an inverted W in advance. However, price went above what I marked as the top, therefore I deleted the lines and looked sideways. All of the sudden, price went down and the setup I marked earlier was on! I rushed the trade, at a different level of what I initially planned (12374.03 was the one), and therefore I moved my stop loss to breakeven out of fear as soon as I saw some margin. Market took me out and went down, it could have been a good winner had I stayed focused…

Second & Third trade: FOMO and frustration trades. I was still thinking on how I missed the double top I had marked, and it was violent the way price went up! I rushed two trades, wrong entry level, wrong stop loss, all about them was wrong, definitely the ones that I am not proud of, regardless of the result. 

All 3 trades happened within 5 minutes, a sample of how important is your state of mind at a certain point to avoid mistakes! 

16:20

M15 FIBCON Failed | -0.20R

I had such a nice feeling when price reversed just after my entry!!! I thought this was going to be the setup of the day!! 

The dream lasted 19mins, not without taking price above my 1R level first! 

I guess the whole thing here is my stop loss, I was extremely conservative (it’s not the first time), and therefore I made a winner trade to become a breakeven or loser trade… Something I definitely need to look into. 

Good news is: the market has plenty of fish to offer, see you next week!

Fri 19th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:53

Grade A M5+M15 Sell MAB!!

I’ve just taken a look at the charts to see a Grade A M5+M15 Sell MAB formed after price failed to move above the TOR@12429 – see earlier blog entry showing the Daily time frame.

This had great structure and great context in that price was coming back down after failing to move above the TOR, also note the Role-Reversal at the Grid level@12392

We are updating the section on range trading, the last few days range-bound Price Action has provided excellent examples.

13:04

Tricky REVFIB after bull spike

The bull spike which produced the new High off the Grid midline@12355 was a clue to the REVFIB being tricky!!

I’ve marked up a typical entry but would have been stopped out due to the overshoot of the GZ. The 61.8 level was ideal as it was at the Grid level of 12411

This is something we must note for the future, a spike like this is a purely technically driven move to a level, in this case, the middle of the current D1 EQZ and top of the range I mentioned at the start of the blog when commenting on the daily chart.

We must learn to be wary of these spikes, they can skew the expected symmetry. However, once the overshoot of the GZ had exhausted itself and price broke back below the 50% level it is reasonable to enter on the brief retrace back up to the 50% level.

If in doubt – stay out 🙂

 

 

 

08:55

Example of Alerts

A great use of alerts is shown. If price moves up to the TOR@Yes High or the BOR  then send an alert to the MT4 Terminal and Mobile device.

To set one up:

  • Drag the bssKeyZone script on to the chart, it will create a silver rectangle.
  • In its properties window set the Description field to # alert text
  • I’ve changed the color to Plum (see below), choose whatever you prefer.
  • Then place it where you want it to trigger and double-click it to unselect (activate) it.

You can then minimize/hide the charts and do other stuff. Turn the volume up on the PC, so long as there’s not any other noise to drown out the alert you can hear it from other rooms.

This is a very useful feature if you’ve decided what levels you’re interested in but don’t want to sit and watch every tick.

Test it out, have a play…

08:51

S/W Updates

Today I will be completing the last few s/w updates, ready for Monday.

07:47

Daily GZ

Price is still contained within the GZ on the Daily chart as shown, the 61.8 level is confluent with the D1 EQZ midline@12429, we are currently in a range between 12429 – 12207

Thu 18th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:44

Nano-REVFIB at High

I’ve been away from my desk for the last 90 mins and returned to see the Nano-REVFIB following the move up to current high which is also a Grid midline@12485.

Very fast-moving but structurally and contextually it was very good and look what happened afterwards. A challenge in real-time but another great example of the REVFIB pattern acting as lift-off for a move in the opposite direction.

I’ve also placed an arrow where Joel was waiting to take the sell at Yes High and the 50% Grid midline@12429.

07:47

Grade A Text Book REVFIB at 3:50am

I’ve just spotted this Grade A REVFIB that took place a few hours ago at 3:50 am. Everything about it is excellent, I’ll not go into any detail but take a quick look at the webpage on REVFIBs and note the characteristics of great setups, e.g.

  • Low probability M1 Sell MAB as price comes off the low.
  • Price reaches the M5 MAB for a possible sell back down to the GZ.

The pullback reaches EXACTLY the 50% level of the Outer FIBCON, confluent with Yes Low and the M5 MAB.

This one was a multiple R setup, shame it was so early on.

See 3rd April and the 14th May example for similarity, these Juicy Salmon MUST be mastered and shared when spotted.

Below is what it looked like on the M5 chart, it shows how strong the move up was after the REVFIB acted as lift-off!

06:53

Price Contained By Daily GZ

Look how price was contained by the GZ yesterday. We are currently at the 50% level which is a D1 EQZ@12281, look-left to see how resistive it was during the big sell-off after price broke below it.

Let’s see what today brings, strong moves away from this level could offer some setups.