Mon 13th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

14:56

GZ H1 Sell MAB

I’ve been away for a few hours and came back to see an H1 MAB just after the US came online. Price reversed exactly at the 61.8 level and the H1 MA (short black line).

I’ve place the Trade Tool to show the ideal entry with the stop covering the H1 Bear channel and the PW/Yes Low.

 

14:49

Buy Loser, chased price!! -0.98R

I took a poor buy trade after price moved back up into M1 micro-channel. It looked good to start with but should ahve closed out when the doji’s formed.

A classic case of hanging on when it was time to close out. It was really the top of a range where you should “Sell High, Buy Low”.

 

10:21

M5 Buy MAB loser -1.05R

I took the M5 MAB right at the bottom of the Golden High-Low zone at 12356.0 BUT the value setup was the M15 MAB below it.

It’s one of those situations we’ve talked about where it’s better to take the higher value trade when two possible setups are forming.

In this case the M5 MAB or the M15 MAB. I’d alos failed to update some key structure that woild od caused me to pass on the M5 MAB, easy now of course!

If point A is taken from the M5 EQZ mid-line at 12323.2 then the 61.8 level at 12345.5 was perfectly confluent with the M15 MA. I’d also not projected the keyzone from earlier.

 

 

 

08:22

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Setup

After a bearish start to the week price has moved up off the lows. At 7am price gapped up to the Daily Golden High-Low zone and has ranged since.

Just after 8am a decent GZ M1 Buy FIBCON at 12323.8 formed. It was confluent with the H1 Bull Channel and the M1 EQZ mid-line at 12323.2. I did not have this marked up, should have!

Price then failed to hold above the Daily Golden High-Low zone.

Fri 10th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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10:55

A Slippery Juicy Salmon 🙂

I’m going to stop trading and switch roles to get some software updates done.

That last GZ M5 MAB was a Slippery-Juicy-Salmon and whilst it got away I’d take it again. I anticipated it at least 20 minutes in advance and could not talk myself out of it.

When I entered I had that feeling of “Whatever happens I’d take it again.” That’s key so very happy 🙂

 

10:31

GZ M5 MAB – Tricky Setup

The GZ M5 MAB I waited patiently for, it was a Salmon but a tricky one due to the spike up through the MA.

I just got stopped out then re-entered as shown. It all got a bit messy, I closed out when I should have left it alone and got 2R 🙁

So, it’s a 100% WTA 🙂

My execution was close to perfect but was just stopped out. Well done anyone profited from this Juicy but slippery Salmon!!

09:37

GZ M1 FIBCON

After the bear spike down price formed a good GZ M1 FIBCON when point A is taken from the hourly EQZ level at 12556.2, this is where the breakout started.

I talked myself out of it and was watching the M5 MAB, higher up. However, the 5 min chart below shows the same setup and structually it was clear that a sell at the 61.8 level at 12526.0 which was also confluent with the bottom of the M1 EQZ at 12527.0 was a good call with price moving back down the PW Low.

09:03

Breakout Sell Winner +1.58R

It’s been very bearish so far and when price failed to move back above the Daily EQZ level of 12577.5 I took a sell trade.

This was not a FIBCON BUT after watching the price action and the break below the M1 Micro-Channel I’d drawn I instinctively felt it was going lower.

However, I held off because I felt I was selling low, into support etc. At the moment I sold price spiked down resulting in the slippage shown. My trade size ended up being 0.6 thus pushing out my 2R.

Once again, fine margins and this trade was rare for me as it was not a FIBCON. Still it was a decent winner, I closed out early missing out on the 2R that would have come in.

Price is currently testing the PW Low……..

Tue 7th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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09:48

GZ M1 Buy MAB Winner +2.44R 🙂

I know we’re not supposed to get attached to the outcome of any single trade but “Freaking YES!!” 🙂 🙂

After my earlier loser that was counter-trend, against order-flow and then having passed on two decent buy setups off of an M1 micro-channel my patience was rewarded.

When price tested  YesHigh I waited for the GZ M1 MAB and jumped on and also started recording so got some excellent footage for the website.

Note the M1 Micro-Channel I’d drawn on after the bull spike at 7am. These are very useful when drawn correctly and help fine tune trade entries.

I passed on two good entry points which was frustrating BUT Be ‘The Bear’ is our mantra and I didn’t chase price (jump in the river 🙂 ) and was eventually rewarded.

On this occasion the gap went in my favour for a +2.44R winner.

It’s 10am and I’ve got switch roles as my Best Friend and K9 Bestie are on their way home and it’s our silver wedding anniversary today 🙂

Well done to anyone who took some of the buy setups.

07:46

H1 Bear Channel Sell loser -1.00R

After the bull move up I sold at the H1 Bear Channel boundary. Ashort-term counter-trend trade, did not work out, low probability.

The bulls are in control short-term, the best setup was the M1 Buy Micro-FIBCON.

I effectively traded against order-flow, not good practice, not Being The Bear!

Mon 6th Aug 2018

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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12:10

A few more thoughts.

I’m feeling Philly-Sophical 🙂

The losing trade below was a really good Buy setup after the strong bull spike. I would therefore trade the setup again!

My mistake was to wander into my office, see the bull spike, see that price had just pulled back to the Open/YesHigh and enter a buy trade without first checking to see where the best value was.

The Stop HAD to be below YesClose, mine was sat right on it and I resisted the temptation to move it.

Lesson: NEVER rush a trade and ensure to mark up the Golden Zone-Role Reversal correctly!!

The positive I take is that the setup was a good, just poorly executed.

11:38

Rushed trade, -1.11R loser!

I’m not supposed to be trading but came into office to see the bull spike and entered a buy trade without correctly marking up structure.

I paid the price with a loser….

The better value entry was at YesClose but I entered at the Open etc. 

Was NOT The Bear…

The 2R would have just come in!!!!!

10:10

Time to switch roles

No trades so far for me as explained below. It’s just after 10am and I’ve got to switch roles for a few hours.

I’m looking at the charts and bemused how I missed the recent GZ M5 MAB, probably because I was focussing on the Reversal Micro-FIBCON off the 12542.7 level and updating the blog.

I need to strike the right balance, the idea is that the blog does not detract from the trading.

However, I’m pleased to have not got frustrated and given in to bad habits like chasing price. ‘Being The Bear’ is vital to us being consistent and I’d rather have zero profit than have a losing day due to low value, low probabilty trades.

We must keep reminding ourselves when we’ve missed the value entry point:

“Another setup will present itself, we just need to be patient and ready to strike!”

The session has so far provided two great setups, the one at 08:02 was fast moving but tradable, the M5 MAB at 09:35 was text book!

09:48

Missed Great GZ M5 Sell MAB!!!!

Wow!!!

I’m not tuned in this morning, whilst updating the blog I missed a great GZ M5 Sell MAB that had the following confluent at point C:

  • H1 Bear mid-channel
  • 61.8 level
  • M5 EQZ level at 12579.9
  • D1 EQZ level at 12577.5

That’s two ‘Juicy Salmon’ I’ve just missed!!

I’m pleased I’ve not been drawn into chasing price but feel frustrated I’ve missed these two. Well done anyone who took these, they are crackers!

This Bear’s feeling a little sleepy this morning 🙂

09:28

GZ Reveral Buy FIBCON

I’ve not yet traded so far. After missing the Juicy salmon from earlier I’ve not wanted to chase price and have resisted selling into SUPCON though the one trade would have worked out.

I’ve marked up a GZ Reversal FIBCON that I did consider taking but passed, maybe if I’d had a few R in the bag I’d have taken it as with good timing at the 12556.2 level the 2R would have come in.

However, this was counter-trend short term and aggressive BUT the Gird structure supported the idea!!

08:14

Missed GZ M15 Sell MAB

I missed a great GZ M15 Sell MAB at the Golden High-Low Zone just after 8am 🙁

This is yet another great example of the session’s Golden FIBCON, in this case a Golden High-Low sell setup adding to the confluence.

Note the inner FIBCON’s 61.8 level at 12638.3 is just above the 50% level of the Golden High-Low zone. This is confluent with:

  • M15 MAB
  • Yes Close
  • The M5 EQZ mid-line at 12640.7

I did not mark this up in time but what a great early sell setup just after the London open at 8am.

This was a “Juicy Salmon” for sure, below is the 5 min chart that shows it very clearly. Note the Role-Reversal zone when looking-left.

07:42

GZ M1 Sell Micro-FIBCON

An early M1 Sell Micro-FIBCON with good structure just after the 7am gap down. I passed due to selling into possible RR Zone on 15 min chart?

 

Fri 3rd Aug 2018

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:43

Freaking Awesome Double Golden Buy!!!

I’ve spent the afternoon updating The Blackbox Community page with the video footage I shot this morning. Do take a look, it’s been a while since I did a video and trying to trade live when not very practiced at it is challenging but I’m happy with it and we can get better at this.

I’ve just taken a look at the charts and spotted an AWESOME FIBCON pattern that I’ve seen before but not captured or in time to trade. Next time I want to trade it because it’s a freakingly high probability setup 🙂 🙂

The session’s current Golden Low-High is displayed automatically and I’ve added a magenta coloured FIB tool to clarify it’s reference points from the High and Low.

Note the recent Inner FIBCON where point A is taken from the Daily EQZ KeyZone level at 12577.5. It’s point B (HH) formed at Yes Close/Open. Note where it’s 38.2-61.8 (blue FIB tool) zone is!

It’s perfectly confluent with the Golden Low-High zone!!

I’ve put an arrow to show where two amazing BUY point C’s formed, the confluence was:

  • 61.8 level of the Golden Low-High Zone.
  • 61.8 level of the  recent (inner) FIBCON.
  • Hourly Bear Mid-Channel
  • Top of the 5 min EQZ.

This was an A+++ Buy Setup that caused price to move up to Yes Close/Open…

We’re going deeper into the Fibonacci code that’s at the heart of Price Action, let’s keep going 🙂 🙂

11:07

1 Sell Loser -0.59R, 1 GZ M5 Buy MAB Winner +2.16R

I have been videoing again and did a much better job today 🙂

I took the Golden High-Low Sell, took a -0.59R loser but a WTA for sure. Trying to video and talk at the same time does affect timing etc. but pleased with the footage.

I then took a great GZ M5 MAB with video off so I could concentrate then videoed it after that, a nice +2.16R winner 🙂

The screenshot shows them both, I’ll now edit the videos for use on the The Blackbox Community page.

NFP in just over two hours, be careful!!

08:55

Possible H1 MAB at Golden High-Low??

There’s a possible H1 MAB if price gets up to 12595.6, the 61.8 level of the current Golden High-Low.

That looks like a salmon if it gets there??

 

08:15

No salmon yet!!

Tough price action so far, I can’t see anything resembling a salmon 🙂

Also, it’s NFP today so as the session passes expect the market to go into a holding patttern until the numbers are released.

Thu 2nd Aug 2018

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

10:36

Such fine margins…

We’ve mentioned many times how fine the margins are between losers and winners. I’ve been sat looking at the price action whilst enjoying a cuppa and allowed myself to visualize how different this morning could have been.

I was not totally focussed early on because I decided to video the setup and myself taking the M5 sell MAB trade. I feel sure I would normally have taken it.

It was also a very bearish follow on from yesterday so I might have moved my target accordingly. Maybe I would have got +4R – maybe?

Then when price produced the next GZ M5 sell MAB I would have – maybe – taken that and got at least +2R.

That’s +6R (+6%) by 9:30am!!

I know this is easy to say afterwards but one thing we’re clear about at Blackbox is we do not want to be in the camp who can talk a good talk via retrospective analysis, there’s no shortage of ‘traders’ out there who do this.

We want only to be the ‘real-deal’, ‘walking-the-walk’ and putting our money where our mouth is. The only way to do this is to trade a live account and prove you can be profitable using the pattern reocognition skill you teach!!

This is our mission and passion, something we’ve seen very little of over the years!

10:00

Missed another great GZ M5 Sell MAB……

After missing the great M5 sell MAB earlier I had to leave my desk only to come back later to see price has continued to sell off and produce another great GZ M5 sell MAB!!

With point A taken from exactly the London open at 8am price formed a short-term double-bottom at the upper boundary of the H1 EQZ zone at 12556.2. Once again the M1 MAB was low value and low probabilty due to context but the M5 MAB was much bettter value and turned out to be the one – again – to take.

It feels a little frustrating to not have profited from either of these but I’m also pleased that I’ve not been drawn into bad habits such as chasing price etc.

I hope this reflects a maturity in my personal trading, time will tell.

I’m not feeling tuned into the charts today so will work on the website. Well done to anyone who took either of these great GZ M5 Sell MABs 🙂

08:16

Missed great GZ M5 Sell MAB……

I’m regretting deciding to video the M5 MAB that formed after the 7am open. I just missed taking the sell, probably because I was talking and showing different chart perspectives.

It turned out to be a cracker if you’d moved your target based on it being a very bearish mood just now. Still, that’s life and others will come along 🙂

Price is still selling off as I type….

Another great lesson in the importance of ZERO distractions when price comes into the anticipated buy or sell zones.

On a positive note, it was another great early setup!

August 2018

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<< July 2018

September 2018 >>

August 2018

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Thursday 16th

13:34

M1 failed FibCon | Buy | -0.99R

13:19

M1 | Sell

10:06

M1 15min MAB (failed 1min MAB) | Sell | -1.00R

A bit unlucky again here, but really I should have tried a few different positionings of the fib tool before settling on an entry point. A fib tool drawn from the underside of the 5min EQZ to the bottom of the move results in a 61% level that favours the 5 or 15min MAB with a later entry and a chance to give more breathing room between the hourly bull channel and the stop.

Wednesday 15th

12:10, 13:09, 14:39, 14:57

M1 | Sell

A selection of potential trades. Unfortunately most of the chart structure is missing as this was taken after the event.

11:35

M1 FibCon | Sell

Wednesday 8th

22:00

M1 | Sell

Checking how the charts looked at the end of that day, and perhaps my last trade wasn’t quite as bad as I had previously thought.

Had I taken into consideration the position of the four higher timeframe MA’s, I could have waited for a better entry at the top of the 5min EQZ. With a fib tool drawn between two 5min EQZs – spanning almost the whole bearish move after a daily high – price reached spot on the 61 fib level before turning around. 

15:49

M1 15min MAB | Sell

I let emotion get the better of me with this trade.

Frustrated that I had missed the good set-up earlier, I tried to make this work even though the signs were telling me to leave it alone! I was looking for a 15min MAB, which was just above my entry level. At this point, however, price was looking bearish with an impulsive move up through the 61 fib level, and my stop was left floating around between and below higher timeframe moving averages. A bad trade all around.

14:10

M1 5min MAB | Sell

I think this was probably the clearest and best potential trade that has presented itself today so far. Clear impulsive move through yesterday’s close and the open, a retrace to the underside of those levels, with all but the 1min MA coming down to provide resistance.

With a tight stop, I think +7-10R was possible holding the trade down to the daily EQZ (12577.5), which is believe is a target.

If I had taken this trade, I think I would have taken profits just above the hourly bull channel.

09:48

M1 1min MAB | Sell

Tuesday 7th

16:22

M1 Low-High GZ | Buy | +0.15R

Not the best of screenshots for this trade. I am writing this at 22:25, though the trade took place at 16:22. I had to go out at 16:45, so wasn’t at my computer to monitor this trade and I ended up closing it remotely through the MetaTrader app, which was a first for me!

My stop for this trade was well positioned (or maybe I was just very lucky) and I feel that had this trade happened earlier in the day, I would have brought in the +2R I was looking for.

Price found resistance at the bottom of the GZ (which you can see more clearly in my previous screenshot at 16:08), and a confluence of four MA’s began to send price in the opposite direction. As the day was coming to a close, however, momentum was lost and price ranged around the daily bull midline, and between the moving averages.

Had I been at my computer for the duration of this trade, I would like to think I would have closed at a better time and had a marginally bigger profit, but it would not have been by much.

 

Today has been a big boost for me, as I finished with a +3.08R profit and strike rate of 75% and felt that I was in tune with the movement of price throughout the day. If I had been a bit luckier with the trade at 15:30 this could have been even better!

This is nothing groundbreaking, but my best day in a while, and coming off the back of some time off trading, it feels good! Noticing the potential for the low-high GZ trade early enough was key, as I was able to trade the price down into the GZ and profit from the movement, even if the actual low-high GZ trade itself wasn’t a success.

16:08

M1 1min MAB | Sell | +2.00R

Following the trend down towards and into the low-high GZ.

Point B from the previous trade gave a good level of resistance and was almost perfectly confluent with the 61 fib level.

You can see here that I’m currently in another trade with my entry at the daily bull channel midpoint and hourly MA. I’m not sure if I have given the trade enough space to play out with my stop. I’m tempted to pull my TP up to at least just underneath the hourly EQZ (12701.8), but as it’s the end of the day I’d rather ‘bank’ profits earlier if it reaches the +2R level.

15:30

M1 5min MAB | Sell | -1.07R

A big part of the reason I took this trade was that I had convinced myself price was going to fall towards the 1hour MA and low-high GZ.

I feel that I was unlucky with my stop on this one. I did have the space to give the trade more room with a slightly wider stop that would have prevented this.

15:10

Low-High GZ 15min MAB set-up

Low-High GZ 15min (edit: 1hour) MAB forming? Entry at the daily bull channel midpoint.

09:42

M1 1min MAB | Buy | +2.00R

The set-up for this trade wasn’t as clear cut as the previous, but price seemed to be interacting well with the 1min MA and after breaking through resistance at yesterday’s high I felt it could act as a good support level on the retrace. I intially hesistated and waited for the 1min MA to come up and meet price. I could have, and should have, got a slightly better entry to squeeze another 0.5-1R out of the trade, but I’m happy with the +2R.

09:22

M1 1min MAB | Buy

I missed this one but really should not have. A nice set-up with the impulsive move coming off the bottom of a 5min EQZ (12685.7), up through the top of the 5min EQZ (12701.4) and an hourly EQZ border (12701.8) that was previously resistance. Price retraced back into the GZ, confluent with the hourly EQZ, 5min EQZ, bear channel and the 1min MA.

Monday 6th

12:35

M5 5min MAB | Buy | -1.05R

My first trade after a couple of weeks break from trading. I placed the stop below the weekly, daily and 4hour MAs, feeling they would provide support along with the 5min MA.

The better trade was one with the entry at point A, as Phill documented in today’s DAX commentary.

Wed 1st Aug 2018

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

16:27

Major Reversal Buy FIBCON

Have been unable to trade since earlier today, I’ve noticed that price continued down to find support at the bottom of the H1 EQZ at 12701.4 followed by a great GZ Reversal FIBCON as price moved back up into the zone.

The arrow shows trade entry and was confluent with:

  1. The 61.8 level
  2. Hourly Bull Channel
  3. Hourly Bear Channel
  4. Daily EQZ Mid-line at 12725.5

Below is the 15 min chart and shows clearly the reversal pattern.

09:35

Golden High-Low M5,M15,H1 Sell MAB Winner +3.31R

Wow!! What an intense 42 minutes!!

As I was updating the blog with the anticipated Sell setup (Juicy Salmon 🙂 🙂 ) price spiked up to my sell zone. I had the Trade Tool roughly in place and managed at high speed to get a good entry.

Also, what helped to make this a ‘must take’ trade was the cluster of 3 MA’s at sell zone. The M5,M15 and H1. These are shown in real-time on the screenshot below, pre-trade entry.

My 2R target was at 12795.0 , just above the start of the huge bull spike candle. I moved my target down to just above the Daily Bull channel (see below) and rode out quite a bumpy ride down but prevented myself from closing out early by letting Grid structure guide me.

Over the last few weeks I’ve studied price interacting with the Price Action Grid more closely than ever. It captures most of the key decision points as price moves up and down. 

This therefore tells me when to expect price to battle it out and so long as structure holds then I trail my stop accordingly.

 Eventually I was able to move my stop to lock in the original 2R just above the 12791.6 M5 EQZ zone and push for a bit more due to the GZ M1 Micro-MAB that formed at that level.

I manually closed out as shown for a good profit, great way to start August 🙂

After I’d marked the trade up in anticipation, just before I posted the screenshot to the blog below I’d already decided I was going to take the trade so long as price moved up to my entry level, it was a JUICY Salmon, I was Being The Bear :):)

Below are two more screenshots related to this trade.

  1. The 5 min chart shows very clearly the Golden High-Low sell setup, marked by the arrow. 
  2. The 1 min chart mid-trade.

08:49

GZ M5 Sell MAB Setup?????

Just entered sell on spike.

06:52

7am GZ M1 Buy MAB

A fast moving GZ M1 MAB at 7am. I sat down at my desk at 7am so was not able to take it but spotted it straight away.

Just before 7am price moved to the top of the hourly EQZ at 12829.8 to produce a Higher-High. Despite the gap down at 7am it was structurally very good. Note that the 61.8 level of the M1 MAB was confluent with the 50% level of the current Golden Low-High zone.

In fact, the 38.2-61.8 M1 MAB zone is very close to the 50-61.8 of the Golden High-Low zone.

July 23rd-27th 2018

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July 2018

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Tuesday 31st

16:32

GZ M5 MAB after the US Open

I had to go out for a few hours and returned to see that price eventually moved down to test the area of SUPCON again, in fact it touched the top of the hourly zone mentioned earlier precisely (12753.3).

It then spiked up strongly at 14:24 to produce a HH setting up a decent M5 MAB upon the retrace down to the Open. The GZ had good RR structure when looking-left and with the stop covering the 61.8 level at 12781.8 would have resulted in a winner.

10:25

The importance of marking up structure

I’ve been looking at what else could have helped me avoid taking the earlier sell. I’ve already noted it was an area of SUPCON (Daily & Hourly Bear Channels) I was selling into.

However, I had also failed to mark up a very important Role-Reversal zone on the hourly chart (above) that price reached the bottom of – pip perfect – to set the session low before reversing back up.

I have the hourly and 15 min charts on permanent display on a second install of MT4 dedicated to the higher timeframes. I’d failed to follow my plan and keep it up to date.

I’ve since marked it up and look how clear it is!!

Had I marked up such an important zone I’m sure I would have talked myself out of the trade and maybe even looked for a buy.

Also note that the bottom of the hourly zone is confluent with the bottom of the 5 min EQZ at 12738.6 so whilst the sell setup was structurally good the context was NOT!!

Easy afterwards of course but this is the level of analysis we have to step up to if we’re going to master this.

The core structure overlaid by the Price Action Grid captures most of the key decision points price makes as it moves up and down but we also need to add zones like these as and when required.

Note: The previous GZ M1 FIBCON I passed on was much better value because at that point price was still on it’s way down to the zone and price had paused at Yes Low.

Still no guarantee it would break below Yes Low but if you’d had the zone marked up on the hourly chart you might have reasoned price might be targeting the zone.

The DAX is a VERY technical market and likes to target key zones and levels, this can be seen when trading day after day.

If these areas are not accurately marked up it’s like wandering through a minefield!!

 

 

 

 

09:41

GZ M1 MAB Sell Loser -1.46R

Wow!!!

I didn’t move my stop but once Yes Low gave way the pressure resulted in a -1.46R loser 🙁

Structurally the setup was good BUT the context was it was reversing off an area of strong SUPCON in the form of the Daily and Hourly bear channel boundaries.

I still took it, probably because of FOMO after missing the great GZ FIBCON earlier.

I would not take it again!!

I’ve passed on these before, should have done the same with this one.

09:32

Sell Winner +0.28R, missed great M1 sell FIBCON

Price spiked down strongly and I found myself chasing it on a very rapid pullback. I glanced quicky at the 15 min chart to see a level that I entered at. I closed out after realzing that was not good practice, however, had I left it alone the 2R would have come in, typical!

A GZ M1 FIBCON then followed that I passed on as I was waiting for price to reach the Open and the M1 MA. 

08:50

GZ M5 MAB Buy Loser -0.31R

I closed out after price failed to move back up, in time to avoid the full 1R loser.

The risk was that we’re in yet another range period, plenty of them lately! However, structurally I liked it, the Golden Zone had decent RR when looking-left.

It started off well reaching +0.88R then reversed quickly so I closed out.

Monday 30th

15:15

Golden Low-High Buy Setup

Feeling a bit frustrated!!

After having to leave my desk for a few hours I returned about 14:45 to see price making its way down into the Golden Low-High zone. I was close to taking the trade at the bottom of the zone zone as marked up but passed because I didn’t feel tuned in to the price action and have a “rule” to not rush into trades.

However, on this occasion it would have worked out as price reversed precisely where it should have if this was a text book setup – which it was!

Trade entry was supported by:

  • The M5 bull and bear channel intersection
  • The 12800 level (M5 EQZ mid-line)
  • Good Role-Reversal zone, look-left
  • 61.8 level of the zone
  • Open within the zone

Despite feeling frustrated about missing such a superb setup it’s great to see yet another session Golden FIBCON play out in real-time instead of after the event 🙂

The 1 min chart below shows the same setup and how it went on to produce a GZ M1 FIBCON when price retraced to the 50% level of the Golden Low-High at 12807.2

When mastered multiple R is available from the initial Golden Low-High followed by the M1 FIBCON shown below!

12:43

GZ M1 Sell MAB

Just come back to see what’s been going on to see this M1 MAB that’s just formed. Price has gradually crept up over the last few hours but the very bearish candle after price failed to hold above the 12844.5 level was a clue to price was struggling to go higher.

The setup had very good structure as shown with an excellent Golden Role-Reversal zone, look-left 🙂

10:02

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

A decent FIBCON is sohwn that I didn’t see in real-time as I wasn’t at my desk.

A much better setup and value entry (12829.8) than the sell loser just taken.

The market is currently ranging making it a challenge, best stand aside until things become clearer.

09:38

M1 Sell MAB Loser -0.96R

After the move down to form the LL I sold at the retrace to top of the earlier GZ at 12825.8 and M1 MAB.

This was too early as shown, I forgot to overlay a copy of the short term channel which was confluent with the LL. I may have passed and reasoned a better value entry would have been on the retrace up to the top of the channel – maybe??

I had also not marked up the best FIB tool which is shown, I’d taken point A from the 12829.8 level, too aggressive?

Very pleased I did not move my stop!

I don’t think I’d take this trade again, it was low value.

08:49

GZ M1 Buy FIBCON Setup

After a bullish move back up off the Daily Bull, Hourly Bear and Hourly mid-Bull Channels at 4am price moved up to make a new session High after the 8am open.

A good M1 FIBCON formed as shown when price retraced to Yes Close, the bottom  of the GZ-RR zone at 12821.6, a good with trend setup that I just missed taking.

As mentioned last week, overlaying a short term channel after the move up can be very useful in determining trade entry, stop and target levels.

Friday 27th

08:59

Missed GZ M1 Buy MAB

I was not at my desk and came back to see a decent GZ M1 Buy MAB had formed after price had made a Higher-High at the H1 Bull Channel.

We have family visiting from crazy hot South Wales so I’ll not be trading anymore today. I intend to enjoy yesterdays results and not replace the memory just yet 🙂

 

07:20

Golden Low-High Loser -0.48R

I anticipated price gapping down to test the 61.8 level of the current Go-Lo-Hi at 7am.

It moved so fast some slippage occurred, however it went into profit briefly before failing to get above Yes High. I reduced my risk and was eventually stopped out for -0.48R.

The idea was right but tricky to execute when price gaps at the 7am open. However, as I type the bottom of the zone is still holding and price is testing Yes High again.

I should have kept my stop below the 61.8 level to let the Golden Zone do its thing if it’s in play.

The trade was a buy and therefore had order-flow on its side due to the bullish price action of the last 36 hours or so.

Would I take the trade again?

Currently I’d say Yes and consider this as one that just didn’t work out!

Last Wednesday at 7am price gapped up to the 61.8 level of the Golden High-Low of the session then sold off strongly. Observing this is what finally made me decide it’s time to automate displaying this unique FIBCON.

Thursday 26th

22:04

Cool Channels

Whilst reviewing the session I thought it might be helpful to show how identifying very short term channels can be very helpful. 

Note: I studied channels a lot whilst learning about trading, it’s time to rediscover how useful they are. Developing the habit of marking them up as soon as possible is extremely important. I only had the first of these marked up in real-time, going forward I intend to look for them and profit from them!

If you can spot the channel early on it adds another level of precision to trade entry and target levels. These 1 minute channels last a short period of time before they break down but provide great guidance on short term opportunities.

It takes practice to mark them up by following a simple method each time then adjusting them as price guides you.

14:16

How the Golden Low-High played out

This 15 min chart shows what happened after my earlier Golden Low-High winner.

It’s not easy riding up such relatively large swings but price has eventually moved on up and is currently sat at the 12765.8 level, just below the PW High.

The arrow shows where I entered the trade, really pleased to have finally traded one after seeing so many of them over the last 2 weeks after the event.

It shows the power of the zone when price 

12:55

Golden Low-High Buy Winner +2.63R

I’m stopping for the day as I’m currentlyup +7.30R, my second best day since going live 🙂 🙂

The earlier -1.62R was an awful trade and a reminder of how bad habits need to be flushed out of the system, however….

I’ve just had my first Golden Low-High Buy winner off the bottom of the zone. The first one I took earlier in the week was a loser and poor quality, this one felt different due to the confluent structure at the bottom of the zone in the form of:

  • Yes Close
  • Hourly Bear Mid-Channel
  • M5 Bear Channel – see below

Such confluence was missing the other day. Price briefly moved down to my stop – which I did not move – but then moved back up, such fine margins!!

Also, when you look-left the zone had decent role-reversal support from earlier in the session when price moved up (12725.5) just after the 7am open.

The 5 min chart was supportive (see below).

Price took a while to finally break back above the daily EQZ mid-line at 12725.5 but when it did the pressure that had built up meant I was rewarded with a +2.63R winner 🙂

Note that price then pulled back to the top (50% level) of the zone before making a second leg up to Daily Bull Channel where it failed to hold the level.

Below is the 5 min chart ,it shows where I entered the trade. Note the bear channel that helped to support price at the bottom of the zone – the 61.8 level.

This is why I wanted to update the bssIntradayKeyLevels indicator to automatically display and update the session’s Golden FIBCON. Throughout the week it can highlight great trade entries, not all the time of course but let’s study it closely. It’s worth mastering!

 

11:27

GZ M5 MAB Sell Winner +2.14R

I took this GZ M5 Sell MAB a bit late but was pleased with the setup, it had value!!

Unlike the last one. That was a great example of why chasing price is futile and leads to slippage and other bad habits like moving the stop to compensate.

11:13

GZ Buy M5 MAB Winner +1.56R, Poor Sell -1.62R loser

Took a great M5 MAB buy and pushed for more R, it reached just over 3R before retracing to my stop resulting in +1.56R

I did not have the upper boundary of my short-term channel correct, it was too high, on the screenshot it’s corrected, I might have closed out for a much better result – maybe?

When price failed I ended up taking a very poor value sell by chasing price!!! The slippage made it worse!!

This resulted in a -1.62R loser as I moved my stop, a spiral of bad habits!!!!

Below is the 5 min chart and like the earlier trade shows how supportive it was of the buy setup. It was confluent with:

  • M5 MA
  • Yes High
  • The M5 EQZ  mdi-line at 12746.5
  • M5 Bear Channel
  • M5 Bull Channel

Great setup, should have closed out for at least 2R.

08:36

GZ Buy M5 MAB Winner +2.59R

At 7am a gap up to the Hourly EQZ level of 12701.4 took place followed by a quick spike down to close the gap perfectly before moving back up strongly.

A very bullish follow on from yesterdays late bull move up.

At the London open I had the M5 MAB marked up and after 2 pin-bars I entered the buy trade that came in after 28 seconds plus on this occasion the gap went in my favor for a +2.59R winner 🙂

Price stormed on up to push through the PW High before a sharp retrace to form an extreme pin-bar as shown below on the 5 min chart.

Shame I didn’t move my target in time as the clues were there that bulllish energy wanted to release itself into the market!

Below is the 5 min chart that was very supportive of the buy setup. The arrow shows trade entry, note the confluence of:

  1. The 5 min EQZ mid-line at 12693.6
  2. M5 MA
  3. M5 bear channel
  4. M5 bull mid-channel
  5. 61.8 with point A taken from the Open

A great trade to start the day 🙂

Wednesday 25th

09:19

GZ Sell MAB Losers x2, -1.07R,-1.17R

Really liked the sell setup at the 61.8 level of the current Golden High-Low. Ended up taking two trades 🙁

A major battle took place in the zone but on this occasion price went up to test the High then sold off again.

One clue was that price was moving up off the Low where both bull and bear hourly channels provided support. 

However, the sell setup at the 61.8 level was supported by the 5 and 15 min charts so would I take the trade again?

Certainly the second trade was the best value of the two and I class it as one that just didn’t work out and I’d take it again because we deal in probabilties and we can’t win them all! The key thing is to be consistent each time a decent setup forms.

 

Tuesday 24th

18:55

GZ M5 Sell MAB Loser -1.00R

The setup was a sell M5 MAB that really liked except that it was a sell in what was still a bullish session after the morning bull spike.

Very happy with the execution as I waited for it to reach the 61.8 level, it just didn’t work out. Had I taken point A from the High then I might have passed and watched what happened when price reached the 12738.6 level. 

From there it sold off strongly back down through the key hourly level of 12701.4 offering a good sell on the retrace back to it as shown by the arrow.

 

12:01

Sell Winner +1.48R, GZ M1 Buy FIBCON +0.52R

There was no clear buy signal to ride up the bull spike at 09:30 so I had to Be The Bear and wait!

When price reached the M5 Eq-zone mid-line at 12746.5 just below the Daily bull channel the price action shows signs of a short-term top.

I liked the micro-topping patten after the break below 12738.6 so entered a sell trade. This was quite aggessive after such a strong bull move but had seen enough of these to reason that probability was on the sell side, at least very short-term.

Eventually price moved down but I closed out early for +1.48R due to the M5 MAB at my target. Of course it then went on down afterwards to the key level at 12701.4

I’d already decided to buy at the 12701.4 level but ended up with a larger stop than I wanted. This buy was supported on the 5min (see below), 15min and hourly charts.

When price stalled I closed out for a 0.52R winner. As I type price is in a short-term range at the level I closed out.

Below is the 5 min chart with the arrows showing my trades entries and how the Price Action Grid structure supported them.

So overall I’m pleased with being +2.00R up from the morning session. I was helped by displaying our updated ‘Be The Bear’ page 🙂

09:14

Tight range so far.

A very tight range so far after yesterdays break back up above the daily Eq-Zone at 12577.5

Price is ranging around the current Golden Low-High, this zone is one to watch going forward. The idea is we learn when it is most effective in our trading decisions.

There will be days when it plays no part in them but there will be days when it offers great multiple R opportunities 🙂

We must continue to develop ‘Being The Bear’!

 

Monday 23rd

Note: Today marks the introduction of the automatically updated session Golden FIBCON 🙂

13:34

GZ H1 Sell MAB Winner +0.59R

Took the H1 MAB sell at Yes Close and the 12542.7 level.

Closed out for a small winner which was a good call as price then went on to hit my stop. 

Some BIG lessons today 🙂

On a range day like today when price has gone from the High down to the Low and is moving back up into the range ONLY take buy trades on pullbacks. 

Do not take sells even though the setups are good structurally. It’s a probability game and some of the sells will work but today they were only brief pullbacks before the next leg up.

12:53

GZ M5+M15 Sell MAB Loser

Did not get a very good entry, should have waited for it to reach the 12527.0 level. I still might have struggled to get the 2R but after moving from the High all the way down to the Low and back up it’s a range day.

1 winner, 2 losers, up +0.26R.

12:41

Golden Low-High Loser

Waited patiently for this buy but I must admit to not having that feeling we speak about 🙁

There were no intraday key levels in play plus the RR zone when looking-left was not convincing. I entered with my stop below the 5 min channels but it wanted to do down to test the 12492.2 level.

I’ll admit to entering the trade probably because of the focus on the session’s Golden Zone and FOMO kicked in.

I would not take it again, a poor trade and the zone did not have good confluence.

 

08:17

Golden High-Low sends price back down

So far price has been unable to break above the current Golden High-Low zone

07:20

7am M5 Sell Winner

Took an early sell on the 1 min chart but based on a Role-Reversal zone just above the 61.8 level of the session’s Golden High-Low best seen on the 5 min chart – below.

I didn’t max out the profit potential but happy with +2.40R.

The screenshot below from the 5 min shows clearly the RR zone, was almost stopped out but a 100% WTA.