Wed 10th October

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10:54

Buy at SUPCON  +1.67R

After many setups where I was close to enter but waited probably too much for the exact entry level, I marked this one well in advance, waited patiently (doubted a little bit as well) and went for it.

Note the magenta coloured lines availables on the Expert Advisor as Measured Move. The idea is to somehow estimate the lenght of a trend by taking the distance from A to B in any successful setup (fibcons & mabcons that worked out) and apply it from point C to the next stop, marked as “D?” as we don’t know exactly what the market will do. 

So I waited for the trend to reach point D, coincidentally a very important level as the Daily Bull channel might be a place whe price looks for support before retaking its bull trend, and decided to buy. I was close to be taken out as the movement down was aggressive, but fortunately my stop loss was low enough to give room to such movement. 

I could have left the trade reach its original 2R level but the 5min Moving Average was being quite strong as a ceiling over the last 90 minutes, so after allowing price to test it twice I opted for securing profit. 

As I write this, price managed to brake that level and went  for the 15min Moving Average! That’s the life of a trader! 

Wed 10th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:58

Todays Results

20:53

Video Commentary

14:27

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON winner, +3.09R

The earlier anticipated sell didn’t play out but another did 🙂

Once the H1 EQZ level at 11899.9 broke then I marked up the Golden Zone and found a 61.8 perfectly confluent. I waited patinetly and was rewarded with a +3.09R winner.

I was tempted to ride price lower but have to leave my desk so wanted to be out of the trade.

Below is the hourly chart, note the H1 EQZ level at 11899.3, superb Role-Reversal structure that supported taking the trade.

11:04

Anticipating Sell Setup???

If price was to move lower I’ve marked up a possible sell setup at the 11900 level with point B at the PM Low ???

10:13

GZ M5 Sell MAB winner, +2.10R

I took the M5 MAB and this time did not touch anything!!

I was 0.1 pip from being stopped out but it worked out and went on to be a +2R winner 🙂

 

09:10

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON loser, -0.79R

Ouch!!!

I really liked this sell setup and got a great entry with my stop just above the M5 EQZ Mid-line at 11952.8 but when price moved up to test it I closed out!!!!

My stop was perfect, did not let it play out 🙁

Price then reversed and has gone on to reach the 2R target 🙁

Good setup, good anticipation, POOR trade management.

The Golden Zone had decent confluence supporting the sell trade:

  • H1 Bear Channel
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • M5 EQZ at 11945
  • M15 KeyZone (not shown)

Tue 9th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:23

Today’s Results, -1.00R

Only one trade today, it was a good setup but was just stopped out before price when on to be a multiple R winner.

14:02

GZ M5 MAB sell loser, -1.00R

I was just stopped out on this GZ M5 Sell MAB, price went on to sell off very stringly, one to have ridden down for multiple R !!!

Mon 8th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:24

Today’s Results, +4.22R

A good day 🙂 

20:22

Video Commentary

I’ve videoed todays trades as follows:

00:00-07:18     Live Buy Trade off SUPCON

07:19-11:35      Commentary on earlier trades.

11:36-14:12      Anticipating sell MAB trade.

14:13-16:45      Live sell trade.

16:46-18:12      Trade analysis

 

16:26

GZ M1 MAB Sell winner, +0.99R

I’ve passed on two good sell setups but did take this GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB. I liked the structure and context but got a bit greedy pushing for multiple R, ended up with +0.99R.

Very pleased with the trade, once again I’d anticipated it well in advance, should have done better than 1R though.

13:20

Buy off SUPCON winner, +2.30R

Price eventually made its way down to the D1 EQZ at 11987.7 and the H4 KeyZone at 11986.0 where I was sat waiting….

I ended up buying at the level but covered the H1 Bear Channel below resulting in a larger stop than I’d like. I got +2.30R which was great but I missed the GZ M15 MAB sell at the H1 EQZ level at 12027.3!!

Very pleased with this trade as it was anticipated from early this morning 🙂

11:32

GZ M15 Sell MAB winner, +2.02R

When price failed to break below the BRN of 12000 where I was waiting to buy at the zone of SUPCON at 11987.7 I marked up the M15 Sell MAB at the PW/Yes Low.

I sat waiting for just over 30 mins before a late breakfast was served 🙂 Very pleased with the setup though we can never be sure if price will spike up before reversing, this makes setting the stop loss a challenge at times.

I made sure my stop was well the PW/Yes Low and was able to get a decent 2R target.

Note the perfect Measured-Move off point B at 11997.8 up to the 12050 level, I’d marked this on before price reached it, another reason why I loved the setup.

08:52

GZ M1 Sell MAB loser, -1.09R

I took the first setup after 8am which was a sell M1 MAB.

The 61.8 level was just below the PW/Yes Low, not bad plus I was able to set my stop above the M5 EQZ mid-line at 12058.6 and the 2R target above point B.

This one did not work out, I reasoned that if price was going lower this is where it might offer a chance to enter the move down.

Fri 5th October

by

09:41

Buy at RESCON +1.72R

Although I was very happy with my entry level, I suffered too much for those +1.72R.

The DAX went all the way down to the 12135.7 level as anticipated by Mr. Phi here: https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/fri-5th-oct/

I bought expecting a fast retracement but to be honest, after analysing how it got there, the downtrend wasn’t as aggressive as it could be, therefore the retracement I should have expected to be slower than usual. As the chart shows, price went towards my 2R profit target, it got really close but not enough to close my trade, and I ended up being caught up in a 1hr 21mins trade that hoovered near my entry level for almost 45 minutes. Too much suffering! I could have ended the trade manually near the top but somehow my greed was asking for more.. When price went back up, I wanted no more even though the worst of it had already happened…  

Anyway, +1.99R overall, really good way to finish the week.

08:33

Sell at RESCON

I started the day taking some risk. I felt that breaking the 12217.4 level was going to extend the downtred seen after the London open so I sold in two separate opportunities being aware of the risk involved by selling at a lower low or near it. That’s the reason why I locked in profit as soon as I had the chance and that is the reason why I ended up missing the downtrend that somehow felt it was coming!

I guess I should have accepted the possibility of loosing 1R and let the trade take its time! 

Fri 5th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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18:45

Todays Results

Just the one trade today.

11:14

Buy at RESCON – D1 EQZ Mid-line, +0.63R

I was The Bear, I waited patiently and took the buy trade at the major D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

However, I ended up with a wide stop and closed out for +0.63R. Price came back down below the D1 and H1 Bull Channels, I closed out but had I not then I’d still be in the trade.

I would like to have ridden this up for multiple R but today that didn’t work out.

What’s important and key is that we anticipated the precise level that price reached before reversing, that’s the Power of the Grid in action 🙂

NFP soon so I’m not trading for now…..

06:42

NFP Todayat 13:30

NFP today so expect the markets to slow down late morning.

Keep an eye on the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7, if price sells off and reaches it then expect some action 🙂

Thu 4th October

by

10:31

GZ Sell FIBCON -0.28R

Another trade that didn’t work out, and even though there was an attempt to move below the M5 moving average, the bulls took over and drove price higher before going back on my favor. I could have locked in profit to mitigate my risk, but I wanted to give price a little bit more of room an decided to move my stop loss above the M15 moving average to add an extra layer of resistance. A -0.28R that hurts a little but nothing to worry about.  

It looks like after an intense start of the session, price will be ranging at least until Wall Street opens at 2.30PM.

08:50

M5 Sell FIBCON -0.88R

Not too much to say about this one. After reaching the low of the session, pirce moved up aggressively towards the M5 moving average. It went furhter than the 61.8 level marked on the chart with the Fibtool, but when I saw it crossing the M5 moving average back down, I thought I had the trade I was waiting for several minutes. It didn’t work, it was within the probabilities of being a loser trade, and it only remarks the importance of taking all edgy trades as stated below.

08:05

Missed GZ M1 Buy FIBCON

Today was a clear example of how important is to trust structure when you are trading following an edge.

Even though the DAX looked really bearish after the bank holiday, price moved up to test Yesterday’s Close level as soon as the London market opened. As my mind was in bearish mode, expecting the index to move donwards, it didn’t matter that I had marked and positioned the trading tool to buy a possible retracement, I just didn’t take it when I had the chance, fearing that price would cross both M1 and M5 moving averages, letting me out of my first trade of the day in a matter of seconds. 

Exactly the opposite happened, with price taking just 3 minutes to move back up, reach what it would have been my 2R profit level and re-test Yes Close.

But that’s not the end of the lesson: after re-testing Yes Close, look at what happened:  

Yes, DAX went down exactly as expected, formed a Double Top that I knew it was in play after it broke the previous GZ M1 FIBCON whose level is marked in red, retraced to the M1 moving average and kept its way down. 

As I was without any profit, I am trying to avoid riskier trades like this double top (not part of the edge) unless I have some profit already, so look at the implications of having missed that first trade! I could have been +4R or more in less than half an hour of being trading!  

Thu 4th Oct

by

Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:58

Todays Results, +0.20R

After three losers it was good to end the day breakeven 🙂

Such fine margins as always!! On the 3rd trade (-1.54R), if I’d not been stopped out by 0.1 of a pip then I planned to ride the move back down for multiple R.

16:41

GZ M1 FIBCON, +2.27R

After price sold off once the US came online I anticipated at sell setup if price retraced back up to the area of RESCON at the Open.

I was pleased with the setup and trade entry. I did try for more R but closed out for +2.27R when price reached an M15 KeyZone that had reversed price in the past.

After three losers today its great to have two winners and get back to breakeven.

I was SO close to a multiple R trade at the 12346.2 H1 EQZ level earlier, very happy with following my process 🙂

14:42

Two Sells at RESCON 1 loser, 1 winner -1.54R, +1.55R

A higher zone of RESCON at Yes High looked a good sell setup.

I entered as shown but my stop was just below the H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12346.2, I ended up moving it just above after confirming the strength of the level on the M15 chart.

This is the ONLY acceptable time to move a stop, when structure justifies it and you have confirmed this.

Look how close I was to staying in the trade when the US opened at 14:30, such fine margins!! After the bearish strength of the reversal I entered another sell trade and got +1.55R. Price has since continue to sell off 🙁

What I’m pleased about is how well I anticipated the setup.

14:16

Sell at RESCON sell loser, -1.07R

Sold at area of RESCON:

  • Open
  • Yes Close
  • D1 EQZ at 12283.3
  • H1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel

Very happy with my entry and stop, it was above the RESCON, this one didn’t work out.

10:15

GZ M1 FIBCON sell loser, -1.01R

After price was held by the first zone of SUPCON I took a sell trade on the first decent retrace. My reasoning was that if it was going down to the second zone and the D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7 this might be where it would turn around.

The only thing going against the trade for me was selling into SUPCON, a good enough reason to have passed on it.

Even though it was a loser I liked it because of the Grid components that protected my stop:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12218.6
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line at 12217.4
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • Top of M5 EQZ at 12225.2

So not an aweful trade at all from a structural POV, it was however a low probability trade. If I was right and price had targetted the lower zone of SUPCON I may well have moved my profit target to more than 2R.

Averaging 3R trades mean you only need to be right 30% of the time to be profitable.

My plan was to then buy at the 12135.7 level at it’s such a major level, see earlier post today.

07:39

Two areas of SUPCON?

After yesterdays German holiday the DAX has moved down strongly after the 7am open. If it does continue to sell off then there are two potential areas of SUPCON as shown above.

The first one is at Yes Low / PW Low where the D1 Bear is in play.

The second one is at:

  • The D1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ at 12154.6
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • D1 EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

This one has the very important D1 level at 12135.7, the Daily screenshot below shows this. 

Also, if point A is taken as shown at 11922.4 then the 61.8 level is 12127.3 adding to the area of SUPCON.