Tue 2nd October

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09:58

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON +2.01R

Blackbox edge in play! These should be the trades to take. Probabilities on your favor, less inherent risk and a sweet +2R locking in profit as soon as price broke certain key levels. I was expecting price to test the Daily Bear Channel so I put my take profit there (+4R), but even as I write this (40 mins after the trade closed), the market is playing around the 12218.6 level. Note that on the last 3 hours no hourly candle was able to close below that level! Are we looking at a bottom? See the H1 chart below:  

08:15

RESCON Sell +2.62R / -0.86R

After such an aggresive start of the session, I looked for possible levels where price might reach a temporary (or permanent for the day) ceiling, and watching closely what the market was doing I risked trading the 2 shown RESCON trades. 

Not too much to say about the first one, it is risky and unpredictable but often comes with multiple Rs if you choose the right entry level. Price moved incredibly fast up and I saw a possible stop at the 5M Moving Average that didn’t hold up and lasted seconds only.

When price reached the Hourly Bull Channel, I saw a last chance to find a retracement level. I entered the trade with a considerably high stop loss and waited for it to go down. It could have been a 4 or 5R trade but considering the nature of the trade I am more than happy getting away with +2.62R.

08:12

GZ M1 Sell MABCON -0.15R

What a roller coaster today’s session is!

After an aggressive bearish move initiated minutes before the London open, price retracted to the M1 Moving Average for what I thought was going to be a great start of the day. Well, it didn’t last long. When price reached my 1R level I decided to move my stop loss to breakeven level in order to reduce my risk and seconds after that I was taken off the trade for a -0.15R. 

 

Tue 2nd Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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08:29

Mad Opening!!!

Wow!!!

What an opening, at 8am price sold off strongly down to the area of SUPCON as anticipated. I was waiting to see if it would test the D1 Bear Channel or the PW Low. 

I decided to wait for a buy setup if the SUPCON reversed price. It certainly reversed price but no setup as the bull spike up to the H1 Bull Channel was untradable!!

The move back down has left me thinking that it’s best to stand aside and wait for things to settle down as the current price action is not tradable or clear at all.

Below is the updated H1 chart showing how price reached the area of SUPCON and reversed. It then stormed up to the H1 Bull Channel at 12300 to produce an H1 MAB then came all the way back down.

06:36

Area of SUPCON?

If price sells off and gets below Yes Low there is an area of SUPCON at the D1 Bear Channel.

Mon 1st Oct

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

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18:17

Todays Results: +3.81R

A great start to October 🙂

14:54

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.58R

I adjusted the Golden Zone and area of RESCON so that point A was taken from the PM/PW High on the H1 timeframe – see below.

The 61.8 level was therefore confluent with:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left along the 12355.4 level you can see the great Role-Reversal structure below on the H1 screenshot.

It took a few hours for price to eventually reach the area of RESCON but was worth waiting for 🙂

11:52

Two sells, +0.51R, -1.01R

When price broke down through the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 I got drawn into two sell trades. Neither of them were good trades!!

The loser was structurally a better setup but low value in the context of the current bullish mood.

10:39

Updated area of RESCON

I’ve updated the area of RESCON mentioned earlier. This point A is taken from the PM/PW High, this shifts the Golden Zone up to a better looking sell zone at the 61.8 level.

The RESCON consists of:

  • 61.8 level 
  • H1 EQZ at 12355.4
  • Bottom of H1 KeyZone

When you look left there is very good Role-Reversal structure.

10:35

Sell loser at RESCON, -1.02R

I took a sell when price was struggling to break above the area of RESCON at 12326.7, it did not work out, a bit choppy whilst price resolves this area.

08:23

Sell winner at RESCON, +2.75R

At 8am the price moved up above the area of RESCON consisting of:

  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 EQZ
  • D1 EQZ
  • 61.8 of current Golden High-Low zone
  • H1 MA

When it failed to hold above it I sold the move back below it. I waited for a micro-retrace back up to H1 Bull Channel and entered a sell trade as shown.

I moved my target down to just above the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12262.5, this worked out well resulting in a +2.75R winner 🙂

07:40

Possible RESCON?

After Fridays sell off price is currently sat above the Open waiting for the London open.

On the H1 chart above I’ve marked up a Golden Zone where point A is taken from just below Yes High. If price was to move up then a juicy salmon might be seen around the 12326.0-12337.0 zone.

Thu 27th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

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10:33

Two Sell winners, +0.58R, +2.19R

I took a sell trade that was not great value so I closed out for +0.58R due to the M1 MAB which was the better setup as shown by what happened afterwards.

After failing to hold above the Open price moved back down below Yes Low and the bottom of the M5 EQZ at 12315.4 to produce a Lower-Low. The Golden Zone was at Yes Low so I sold the retrace for a +2.19R winner.

After the move down and the move back up off SUPCON price is currently ranging with Yes Low being approximately the middle of the range.

10:27

GZ M5 MAB Sell loser, -1.35R

The area of SUPCON held, I was waiting to see if price would test the H1 Bull Channel but the H1 Bear Channel was the turning point.

I took the GZ M5 Sell MAB but inside I knew due to the SUPCON it was a low probability, so will pass on a similar one next time. The gap meant I had a -1.35R loser 🙁

09:10

Two sell trades off the Open, -0.96R, +7.76R

At 06:40 I updated the blog to show an area of potential SUPCON.

I reasoned that price might retrace up to the Open to offer a sell trade, if so and Yes Low breaks then multiple R is available.

My first trade was a loser but when price moved back below the Open I took another sell, this proved a good call as it resulted in my best trade since going live 🙂

The reason I was OK with entering the second trade was based on the probability of multiple R being available if price broke below Yes Low. It was the Price Action Grid that supported this reasoning based on the area of SUPCON.

I moved my taget to just above the area of SUPCON. If I’d have been more patient I could have got more from the trade but was very pleased with the result.

07:19

MAD M5 Micro-MAB at 7am Open

Just before the 7am open price moved down to test Yes Low. Just as the 6:59 candle was about to close price shot up to the Open.

It retraced slightly then paused for a few seconds before 7:00, at the open price gapped down as shown.

Structurally it was a great Golden Zone M5 MAB but difficult to trade as we don’t enter trades during the 7am and 8am opens due to the gaps but this one would have worked 

06:40

Area of SUPCON??

The H1 chart shows an area of possible SUPCON between 12255.1 and 12282.6

  • D1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 Bear Channel
  • D1 MA

If price breaks below Yes Low then there’s white space on the way down the D1 EQZ at 12282.6

Wed 26th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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20:00

Great GZ M1 Micro -MAB

Just spotted this decent GZ M1 Micro-MAB that formed around Grid structure.

17:22

Sell at RESCON, +1.58R winner.

After a move up off the low price reached an area of RESCON I’d anticipated would cause price to at least reverse temporarily.

I sold at the Daily Bear Mid-Channel and closed out for +1.58R as price looked like it would move back up off the M5 EQZ level at 12368.3

13:25

Video of two sell trades

This video shows the two sell trades

00:00 – 05:13 Live Sell Trade 1.

05:14 – 11:18 Live Sell Trade 2

12:52

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON, +1.70R winner

After price made a Lower-low I took the sell FIBCON at the 50% level.

Really pleased with the setup, should have waited a few seconds to get the full 2R but I was happy with +1.70R 🙂

09:54

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON, -o.22R loser

After selling off strongly I sold the first decent retrace. Point A was taken from Yes Close to produce the Golden Zone.

After observing the 61.8 level hold price I entered a sell trade. At +1R I reduced my risk, however price moved back up off the micro-keyzone resulting in a -0.22R loss.

The only reason for not taking the trade was due to it coming off the session low. The next and higher value sell setup is if price moves on up to Yes Close and the Open which is a 61.8 level (12376.6) when point is taken from the Daily Bull Channel, see below.

Tue 25th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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15:47

Example of Bear Trap

Above is a great example of what’s called a ‘Bear Trap’.

Price has been in a range with the bottom of the Golden Low-High zone and the Open being the bottom of the range. Price broke briefly below the bottom of the range drawing in sellers before reversing back up.

This is called a classic ‘Bear Trap’ and experienced traders will be looking to buy the move back up into the range.

14:09

Video of losing sell trade

This video shows the sell at RESCON anticipated earlier in the blog. The setup was good and I was pleased with my trade entry.

I lost -0.54R due to reducing my risk when the trade was at +1R. I kept my stop above the Grid components that formed the area of RESCON.

This was one of those trades that didn’t work out but I’d take it again!

12:10

Sell at RESCON, -0.54R loser

I took the sell at the previously identified area of RESCON. Despite it being a loser I’d take the trade again.

At +1R I reduced my risk whilst still protecting my stop with the Grid RESCON components, that worked out to be a good call as I’d have taken the full 1R.

 

 

09:39

Spikey open then ranging

After the move down then up to form the current Low and High price has been stuck in a range around the Open.

We must Be The Bear and avoid getting drawn into poor setups!!

06:38

Possible RESCON??

If price moves up to test Yes High there’s an area of RESCON just below it.

Mon 24th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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Thu 20th Sep 2018

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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11:22

Video of earlier Sell Trade

This video captures the earlier sell trade as follows:

00:00 – 05:27 Anticipates the sell setup.

05:28 – 10:50 Live trade.

10:51 – 13:48 Post trade analysis.

09:59

Sell Winner at RESCON

I did not intend to trade this morning on my first day back at my desk after 2 weeks away. However, I took a look at what happened at 8am at around 8:30, I then began to reason out using the Grid where the next areas of SUPCON and RESCON are.

Next thing I know I’ve identified a very interesting area of RESCON, it consisted of:

  • D1 EQZ at 12283.7
  • H1 EQZ at 12282.6
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • D1 Golden Zone, phi=12303.7

I ended up videoing the setup and taking the trade, below are the before and after screenshots:

  • D1 FIBCON, note the 61.8 level at 12303.7
  • H1 Chart anticipating sell setup at RESCON.
  • H1 Chart showing what happened next.
  • M15 Chart anticipating sell setup at RESCON.
  • M15 Chart showing what happened next.

Below is the Daily chart showing the higher timeframe FIBCON, note the 61.8 level at 12303.7, price reversed at precisely the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7 which was confluent with the Grid components listed above.

Below is the Hourly chart anticipating the sell setup at the H1 EQZ at 12282.6 AND the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7

Below is the Hourly chart showing what happened next.

Below is the 15 minute chart anticipating the sell setup at the H1 EQZ at 12282.6 AND the D1 EQZ level at 12283.7

Below is the 15 minute chart showing what happened next.

Fri 14th Sep

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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09:09

Daily Grid Context

Before I leave the office take a look at the Daily Chart above. It shows why price sold off very strongly back down to the Open when it moved up at 08:47 to test Yes High and the Daily EQZ Mid-line at 12135.7

Look-Left to see the Role-Reversal structure from June-August. This is why the Grid is SO powerful and this is why we must use two MT4 installs to constantly show this higher timeframe context at a glance. 

08:53

8am Grid Buy Trade Setup

I’m just about to leave for another trip away. I’ve just taken a look at the 8am action and cannot resist commenting on the buy setup that the Grid identified at 8am.

The bullish momentum from yesterday has so far continued into this morning. Between 7-8am price made a Higher-High just above the PM Low, at 8am price pulled back to the Daily Bull Channel, note the up and down arrows for its Role-Reversal structure.

The M15 Chart below shows the same Grid structure, note the Daily Bull Channels Role-Reversal structure.

Thu 13th Sept

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10:25

Multiple Trades – No profit

Affected by what happened on my first trade (see below), and conscious of the profit I left on the table for taking my 2R quickly despite what it was a huge rally, I was observing how price wanted to retrace and therefore took some sell trades. When it comes to risky trades like those ones, as soon as I am in profit (+0.5R or more) I move my stop loss to breakeven to make sure that I am not risking anything. 

The firs two trades (left side of the chart) were bad trades, taken at levels that didn’t reflect what was going on and therefore I closed them as soon as I could.

The third trade, risky as it was (it involved moving the stop loss above the bullish channel – not recommended), offered me +2.5R that I didn’t take, having in mind that earlier on the day I had closed a trade too fast, it then went right to my stop loss (at the breakeven level to avoid losses), took me out and resumed the downtrend reaching aprox 3.5R of profit in just 5 minutes..

Honestly, that last movement I didn’t even see it, as I turned off my laptop as soon as it let me out of the trade for -0.02R!

To be fair, and this is the lesson of the day, if you are not taking your 2R at least risk a little bit and place your stop loss above the mid channel and the 1 and 5 minute moving averages that were crossing at that moment, ensuring that there was some resistance between your stop loss and the current price.

08:08

M5 MAB +2.07R

Great way to start the day! 

Right after the London open, I was waiting for price to touch the M5 moving average before continuing the uptrend shown since the beginning of the session. As soons as it approached that level, I entered into a trade that went more than half the way towards my stop loss but quickly turned into a great trade.

I was expecting the day to be bullish, but I also expected a retracement once it crossed my 2R, and as the trendline that I added beforehand shows exactly how price respected it for a couple of minutes, I decided to sell in order to buy again if it was going to get closer to my original entry level. Guess what? It never did.. The last candle you see on the screen turned bullish in those 47 seconds left, and after that it was all upside, so much so that I could have done 10R on that trade without significative retracements!