Fri 31st Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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09:26

Four sell trades, +0.79R

I wasn’t planning to trade today but last night I took a look at the charts at noticed that the Grid showed that if price broke below the D1 Bull Mid-Channel there was clear space – except the H1 Bull Channel – on the way down to the lower D1 Bull boundary.

This is a quick update as we’ve family arriving very soon, the headlines are:

  • The bearish call was correct.
  • I was at my desk at 06:30 and the sell setup was looking good.
  • At 06:50 price moved up to the perfect sell position at the RESCON confluence of:

    1) D1 Bear Mid-Channel.
    2) H1 Bear Channel
    3) The 61.8 level at 12477.5

  • I was unable to enter the trade at 06:50 due to the spread being 5.3 pips 🙁 It proved to be the perfect entry point, the spread reduced to 0.8 pips at 06:58, just before the European open at 7am.
  • I took a great sell 07:03 and moved my target down in anticipation of the bear move down. I trailed my stop to reduce risk and ended up being stopped out for -0.52R after it had passed the original 2R target.
  • At 07:27 I had a dose of FOMO, entered a sell trade, resisted moving my stop but on this occasion had I moved it up slightly I would have had a great winner but instead took a -0.99R loss.
  • At 8am the London injection of energy sent price down strongly confirming my read of price action. I entered a sell trade after a brief retrace to the Open, a good call and once again moved my target down. It was a great trade but I only got +0.55R from it 🙁
  • At 08:44 I took a Golden Zone Sell M5 MAB that was another great sell trade that went down perfectly to the H1 Bull Channel, my target was just below it, above the D1 Bull Channel, I ended up with a +1.75R winner.

So, after 4 sell trades I ended up with +0.79R. I should have taken more than this from the guidance the Grid gave but such are the fine margins we have to live with.

Despite this it’s a great end to August after I’ve spent this month going deeper into the Price Action Grid. 

Below are the screenshots from this mornings trading.

This first one is from last night on the H4 chart. It shows how price two days ago failed to hold above the upper D1 Bull Channel and the D1 EQZ level at 12577.5 followed by yesterdays move back down into the channel.

The potential for a continued move down from the D1 Bull Mid-Channel to the lower boundary is what I based my bearish reasoning on.

This next one shows the M15 chart and the great sell trade entry at 12477.5, I was unable to take this due to spread being 5.3 pips at the time.

The one below shows the great GZ M1 Sell MAB at 07:03 and how I was just stopped out.

The one below shows the FOMO mentioned above. It was poor trade due to indiscipline but had I moved my stop to just above the 61.8 level at 12466.3 it would have been a good call and kept me in the trade as price moved down afterwards.

This last one shows the two further sell trades I took that were winners. They were both good setups and I had great entries but did not maximize the profit potential 🙁

Note how price set the Low right on the H1 Bull Channel, my target was at 12338.0, that was aggressive and greedy I guess but overall I’m happy to have read the early price action well based on the H4 chart above that I took a screenshot of last night.

Fri 31st August

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08:40

GZ M5 Sell FIBCON +3.66R

Yes! I’ve waited long for a trade like this one. For months I took poor value trades, which caused me not to trust in good setups!

Since last week I’ve been taking resonably good trades only to close them too early for too little profit.

Not today, hopefully not anymore. 

Price retracted to the bottom of a very significant level over the last 2 months, that is, the hourly equidistant structure at 12428.2

I prepared in advance and entered the trade on the 61.8 level of the Fibonacci retracement tool. It proved a good call! 

Something to improve? Taking into account the concept of measured move to maximise profit, given that price almost replicated the previous downtrend (called by Blackbox the A-B leg). 

Anyway,  nothing to complaint about, a good way to finish the week!

8:15

SUPCON -1.22R

The day of the “slippery salmon”? That’s what I thought on my first trade… I waited for price to brake the H1 Bear mid channel, kept being patient until it went over the same line, and entered the trade just to see how a last push downwards took me off the trade before retracing above my 2R level.   

Thu 30th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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08:35

GZ M1 Sell Micro-MAB

I’m not trading today due to preparations for family visiting over the weekend but I’ve just taken a look at the charts to see what happened at the 8am Open and noticed an early very fast moving but structurally very good GZ M1 Micro-MAB.

The Golden Zone had great Role-Reversal structure (look-left) and if spotted and taken would have resulted in a very short trade if going for 2R.

As I’m typing price has moved on down into an area of SUPCON and the bears look like they’re targeting the PW High which is just below a D1 Bull Mid-Channel.

The screenshot below shows this.

Note how price failed to hold above the D1 Bull Channel AND the D1 EQZ at 12577.5, “What cannot go up must go down.”

This shows how the Price Action Grid can help to guide our reasoning processes

Wed 29 Aug

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10:20

GZ M5 Sell MAB

Small profits for the kind of trades I took today!

Good timing, a generous stop loss and still both could have been +2R. But instead of focusing in the money I left on the table, I am happy that I chose good trades, as I know that as long as I keep trading this kind of setups, the long term probability of being consistently profitable is high! 

Wed 29th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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17:45

Video of GZ M5 MAB Trade

This is a video of the Golden Zone M5 MAB trade mentioned below.

It shows the trade being anticipated BEFORE point B, the Lower-Low formed. 

00:00 – 01:18   Intro (white screen).

01:19  – 09:55   Trade setup and anticipation.

09:56 – 13:16    Trade live.

13:17 – 15:57     Post trade analysis.

 

10:58

GZ M5 MAB Winner, +2.06R

What makes this one really cool is I anticipated it well in advance, see the the screenshot below.

Whilst price was in the choppy range after 8am I decided to wait for price to break below the session low, at that point it was at the Open/Yes Close. The ideal Golden Sell Zone I reasoned would be a retrace to the current session low where the:

  • Open
  • Yes Close
  • M5 EQZ Mid-line at 12534.8

would all act as confluence to support the sell setup.

Based on this I was able to project where point B (the Lower-Low) would need to reach to support this setup. The screenshot below shows this marked up with 12520.7 being the level required for the perfect ‘Golden Zone’ sell structure to form.

Things played out perfectly, the only thing I would change is to have waited a little bit more to get the best value entry but after a few occasions recently where I’ve been too fussy and missed the trade entry I entered as shown. This meant my 2R profit target was lower than originally planned but the trade went on to be a winner 🙂

Note: On the screenshot above showing the winning trade the session’s ‘Golden High-Low Zone’ has moved down due to the session low moving lower, it has therefore covered the sell ‘Golden Zone’ that was used to enter the trade. This zone is shown below on the screenshot predicting the setup.

What was ideal about this zone was that it had great Role-Reversal price action when looking-left, see second screenshot below of the M15 chart, the arrows show this. This is a great example of why we use our custom setup where a second install of MT4 is displayed on a second monitor to provide higher timeframe context at a glance.

Below is the screenshot anticipating the sell setup, point B needed to be approximately at 12520.7 and that’s exactly what happened 🙂

Note: This was not luck or a one-off. This type of reasoning comes from commitment and passion to studying Price Action day in day out!!

M15 chart below showing the Role-Reversal price action that supported the sell trade. 

08:38

Very Choppy Open

So far its been a very spikey and choppy 8am open, one or two very fast moving setups but best left alone.

However, note how the Grid has contained the action so far:

  • Open.
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel (High)

Also, note how the H1 EQZ level at 12556.2 has interacted with price.

06:36

Possible event zones

Yesterday price consolidated the move up to D1 Bull Channel, it remained below it after failing to break above it early in the session.

From there is was for the most part a range day and never went close to the areas of RESCON and SUPCON highlighted. There is a fair bit of RESCON to move higher in the way:

  • D1 Bull Channel
  • D1 EQZ at 12577.5
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bear Mid-Channel

Below is the same Golden Zone highlighted yesterday where the SUPCON consists of:

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line at 12492.2
  • H1 Bear Channel (held price yesterday)
  • D1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • H1 Bull Channel
  • H1 KeyZone

If price does move up strongly through the D1 Bull Channel there is an area of RESCON shown at the 12663.7 level.

Tue 28th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:26

M1 MAB Sell Loser, -1.00R

Same again!!

When price retraced to:

  • The Open
  • Yes Close
  • H1 EQZ at 12556.2
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel

I sold. It started well but did not work out, it failed to break below the H1 Bull Mid-Channel.

The best sell was the one I passed on, these last two setups were not rubbish, the Open and the H1 EQZ can be very effective, I’ve just got caught up in a short-term range with the Open in the middle of it.

This a classic case of taking minnow setups and not the juicy salmon ones.

Despite two losers I’m pleased that I:

  1. Didn’t move my stop.
  2. Didn’t chase price.

These two bad habits will cripple you trading results!!

10:25

Double-Top Sell Loser, -1.01R

When price retraced to:

  • The Open
  • Yes Close
  • H1 EQZ at 12556.2
  • H1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • Micro Double-Top

I sold. It started well but did not work out.

Breaking above the micro-channel was maybe a clue but right now I class it as one of those that didn’t work out but was definately a lower probability setup than the sell I just passed on.

10:04

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

I really liked this setup but was too fussy, I wanted price to reach the Open before selling.

If I’d added the M1 Micro-Channel shown below then maybe I’d have taken it.

Note how price touched the upper and lower boundaries with the current Low at the bottom at 12533.2

Whilst we focus on the ‘permanent’ Grid structure at times it can be useful to mark up a micro-channel as shown when trading the 1 minute timeframe. These channels don’t last long but can be helpful.

08:36

GZ M1 Sell FIBCON

The battle is at the D1 Bull Channel and the D1 EQZ level at 12577.5

The above sell FIBCON was decent but a bit too congested for me.

07:37

M15 SUPCON Zone

Here’s the possible SUPCON zone on the M15 chart. I’ve used arrows to highlight the Role-Reversal structure.

If price does come down to it there is also the D1 Bear Mid-Channel just below it.

07:03

Possible event zones

Overnight price has reached the lower D1 EQZ boundary at 12577.5, where next?

If it moves on up into the D1 EQZ there’s an area of RESCON:

  • D1 Bear C
  • H4 KeyZone (not shown) 12663.7

To get there it has to also get through the H1 Bear Mid-Channel followed by the H1 Bull Channel.

If it moves back down into the H1 EQZ there’s an area of SUPCON:

  • H1 EQZ ML at 12492.2
  • D1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • H1 KeyZone
  • 61.8 level at 12491.4 when point A is taken from the H1 EQZ level at 12428.2

 Right now price is sat on the Open at the top of the H1 EQZ and the H1 Bull Mid-Channel.

Mon 27th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our trading edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

17:35

Video of Buy and Sell Trades Below

This video is of the two trades taken earlier. It shows the anticipation of the sell zone (RESCON) and why I took the M5 buy MAB as price made its way up to the zone.

00:00 – 05:23    Trade setup and anticipation.

05:24 – 06:49    M5 Buy MAB trade live.

06:50 – 07:22   Buy trade complete, about to enter sell trade.

07:23 – 12:02   Live sell trade.

12:03 – 17:55   Post trade analysis.

10:43

Some thoughts….

Over the last week I have felt clear shift in my read of price action, this has been a direct result of going deeper into the Price Action Grid during August. Friday and today are a direct result of that process where Grid structure and intersections have been identified well in advance allowing time to plan trade entry.

There are two final filters I have once the trade has been marked up:

  • Can I talk myself out of the trade?
  • Do I have that feeling of “Whatever the outcome, I’d take this trade again.”

The challenge we have as traders is mastering our emotions and that requires brutal honesty at times.

Blackbox believe the Price Action Grid is inspired and unique and not limited to just the DAX. We choose to specialize trading the DAX for reasons explained on the website but the Grid can be found on all markets, for example the EURUSD.

We look forward to sharing our unique take on Price Action with the wider trading community now we’re ready to take that step!!

09:11

Sell at RESCON Winner, +2.17R

I caught the juicy salmon we’d anticipated 🙂

At 08:10 price reached the area of RESCON mentioned at the start of the blog, I entered a sell trade using the Trade Tool. As with Friday’s blog commentary it proved a good call and after about 8 minutes the bears succeeded in reversing price.

I didn’t move my target on this occasion so ended up with a +2.17R winner which following on from the earlier GZ M5 Buy MAB has been a great start to the Bank Holiday, all by 08:28 !!

Just like on Friday, we used the Holy Grid 🙂 to anticipate possible event zones of RESCON or SUPCON. This then provides us with a clue as to where high probability, high quality, high energy setups might occur, otherwise known as ‘Juicy Salmon’ 🙂

On the way up or down to these zones we should also expect to see good setups, as with the GZ M5 Buy MAB earlier. However, once you learn to trust Grid structure the main focus should always be the intersections and we must try to filter the poor quality setups, otherwise known as minnows.

Below are the updated screenshots for:

  • H1 chart.
  • H4 chart.
  • D1 chart.

Each shows how price reached the area of RESCON we’d identified at the start of the blog.

09:03

GZ M5 MAB Buy Winner, +3.92R

Since 8am its been busy!

I took the GZ M5 MAB at 08:03 when price retraced to the H1 Bull Channel and the 61.8 level when point A is taken from PW High/Yes High. After a brief move below my entry level price moved on up to the area of RESCON mentioned at the start of the blog.

I moved my target based on price wanting to test this area of RESCON, it resulted in a great start to the session 🙂

Things happened fast so the screenshot also shows the following sell trade I entered when price reached the sell zone at 12492.2, this was also a winner, see above.

07:16

Possible event zone around 12500

Price has started the week in bullish mode, however, there is an area of RESCON just below 12500 as shown on the H1 chart, it has the following confluence and is also supported by the H4 and Daily charts, see below.

  • H1 EQZ Mid-line
  • D1 Bear Mid-Channel
  • Top of KeyZone

It’s a bank holiday in the UK so not sure what 8am will bring in terms of energy into the market.

Below are two more screenshots:

  1. The Daily chart showing a GZ FIBCON where the 61.8 level is at 12490.2, confluent with the H1 EQZ Mid-line above. The GZ-RR zone is very good when you look-left.
  2. The 4-hour chart showing the top of a KeyZone defined a few weeks ago, its top is confluent with the D1 Bear Mid-Channel.

Let’s watch this zone for any juicy salmon……..

Fri 24th Aug

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09:00

D1 MAB + RESCON – +2R Winner

Nice RESCON right at the Daily MA supported by as well by the grid!

After looking at Mr. Phi’s post (https://blackboxsoftwaresolutions.com/fri-24th-aug/) and analysing the charts, I marked the zone whit an arrow pointing down and waited till it got there. 

I was a bit conservative with the stop loss, looking for tangible resistance in case it kept going up, but a +2R is a great winner anyway!

Fri 24th Aug

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

18:35

Video of Sell Trade Below

This video is of the sell trade taken earlier. It shows the sell zone of RESCON being identified in advance and demonstrates the power of the Price Action Grid.

00:00 – 04:06   Trade setup and anticipation.

04:07 – 09:23   Trade live.

09:24 – 14:25    Post trade analysis.

11:13

SUPCON at H1 Bull Mid-Channel

I had to leave my desk after the earlier winner and have come back to see what happened to price afterwards. This is shown on the M15 chart above.

Price went down to the H1 Bull Mid-Channel and found support at the Open and the top of a keyzone marked up several days ago.

Wished I’d been able to trade 🙁 but it once again shows the power of the Grid in action.

09:37

Sell at RESCON winner, +4.06R

Bless the Holy Grid 🙂 🙂

This is what it’s all about, using the Grid to anticipate high probability, high value, high energy trade setups well in advance. I took the sell at the area of RESCON that was identified pre 7am (see below) for a +4.06R winner 🙂

 Below is the updated H1 chart showing how price moved up strongly to the event zone area (RESCON).  The confluence of:

  • H1 EQZ at 12429.0
  • D1 Bull Mid-Channel
  • D1 MA
  • H1 Bull Channel

meant this was a sell trade based on structure and in real-time feels counter-intuitive due to the strength of the bull move up to zone. The only way to trust the Grid in these situations is to see it for yourself day in day out channelling price and when Grid intersections occur High Energy Events take place.

The trade can be categorized as a Daily MAB, see screenshot below.

Below is the Daily chart showing the MAB.

07:48

Possible event zones

After seeing the Grids effectiveness and importance this week I’ve marked up possible event zones if price break up or down.

First it has to breakout of the H1 wedge its been in for the last few days.

Let’s Be The Bear and wait patiently to see what happens if price moves into them, maybe we’ll see a Juicy Salmon or two 🙂 🙂

As price makes it’s way to these zones there will be lots of minnows BUT also decent salmons so we need to be marking up setups as per our trading plan and following the rules.