Tue 7th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

07:45

Passed on the Micro-REVFIB 🙁

I sent out a Trade Setup Alert – see below – but failed to take it!

Whilst price was below the PW High and in the KeyZone I was hesitant, my mental battle is point 4 of the Traders Creed.

4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

I will overcome this !!

06:50

Watch the PW High

If price moves down to test the PW High we might see a REVFIB like yesterday. The zone highlighted has great RR.

06:39

Superb Micro-REVFIB Yesterday at the PW High

I was out all yesterday afternoon so did not see this superb Micro-REVFIB when price moved down to test the PW High at 15:30

This is a great example of where we’d expect to see one due to the context, the RR was excellent when you look at it on the M30 or H1 charts, see the midline@12651

Mon 6th Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

11:15

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -1.00R

I passed on the M1 Sell MAB but liked he M5 MAB which was confluent with the bottom of the earlier range. The RR looked excellent on the M5 and M15 charts.

Price was coming up off the H1 MAB but it was a decent PB, just didn’t work out.

 

09:18

Spike – Channel – Range

If you’ve read the page called “Trade With The Energy” that I began over the weekend I mentioned that the market is always in one of three phases, Spike, Channel, or Range and that they take place on all time frames due to the fractal nature of price action.

Well, this morning we have an example shown on the M5 chart.

05:52

Bullish Start To Monday

The bullish mood continues, the PM High is the next target above the 12873 EQZ level.

At both these levels, we will watch for REVFIBs.

Fri 3rd Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:39

Buy REVFIB Loser, -1.15R

I took the Buy REVFIB, I liked it but it did not work out.

My initial setup was based on the M5 Sell MAB producing the B-C PB leg down to the GZ. However, the M1 MAB sent price up to the Open before the PB.

Maybe that Price Action negated the strength of this particular setup in that the bullish energy had run out at the Open?

Will note this and watch closely in the future.

10:23

The Energy Of Golden Zones

I’m glad that I passed on the early REVFIB just after 8 am due to the context. I marked up the Outer and Inner FIBCONs, their GZs show the miro-range price has ended up in so far today.

The Outer FIBCON (magenta) has its 61.8 level@12608, this was the bottom of a Bullish GZ and you can see how precise the level is. We must learn to get more out of the Price Action Grid along with any GZs and this is a great example of considering buy trades at the BOR.

Also, this last week the price action has highlighted just how important it is to mark up the GZs on the Daily, Hourly, and Intraday time frames as part of a daily routine.

Had I used to them this week to guide me in my decision making I would have passed on a few losing trades.

Below is the GZ is shown on the M15 chart, note how the wicks show the bullish energy along with the Role-Reversal ones from earlier.

08:19

Passed on sell REVFIB just after 8 am

Whilst the sell REVFIB that formed just after 8 am had decent structure I passed due to the context.

Specifically that there’s a bullish momentum in the market from yesterday, things were very choppy.

06:00

Yesterday the Bulls were in Control

Yesterday the bulls drove price up from the 12281 EQZ level up to test the PW High just above the upper EQZ level at 12577.

With the US on holiday today things might be quiet but who knows?

Let’s see if there’s any follow-through, if not we may just go sideways digesting the move up OR maybe the bears will drive price down??

We will trade accordingly.

Thu 2nd July

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End of Day Review

+1.26%

2 trades taken.

1 winners, 1 losers, 0 break even.

10:19

M1 Reversal FIBCON Winner | +2.28R

And finally managed to trade a REVFIB after several weak attempts! 

Price moved up to form a new High, already in an area of resistance if we look at price in the past days. After the M1 moving average failed to hold price, I was already waiting for price to come back down towards the M5 moving average. It didn’t touch it, but it was good enough to send price back up. I took the trade at the 61.8 level of the retracement, and voilá!  

I feel like price wants to keep going down if it brakes the 12470 level, but after two days of bad results, the sensitive approach was definitely to take profits. 

11:36

Failed M1 FIBCON | -1.02R

Great battle between bulls and bears at this level! There was role reversal marked with the red line and the M5 moving average coming down. 

Bulls took over once they managed to break the resistance at my entry level, I had the chance to exit but I prioritised leaving the trade alone. Once manage to not to step into my trades naturally, next step will be to manage some of them according to price action. 

Thu 2nd Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:59

Two Sell Losers, One Sell Winner

After a few hours of Mark Douglas during which NFP took place, I returned to see that the bulls had continued to drive price up.

I ended up taking the above sell REVFIB where the GZ was confluent with the PW High. There was an aggressive REVFIB at 12651 but I was not at my desk to see that.

Below are two sell losers from earlier. Structurally they were good BUT it was the context that was the reason why they were low probability.

The energy had switched to a bullish one due to the Buy GZ on the M5 chart, see below. I sold into this bullish energy.

10:55

Grade A Sell REVFIB

After updating the blog earlier I looked to see what had been going on only to see that I was 5 minutes too late for the REVFIB at the High.

Well done Elaine and Alex for executing it perfectly 🙂

I lost track of time updating the blog and was a bit gutted but was so pleased others took it. It’s a classic high-quality REVFIB at the High, the two losing ones I took earlier were too early as the bullish energy had not run its course.

A second sell setup followed which I was sat waiting for but once again I was too fussy wanting price to move up into the GZ at the BRN of 12500

Upon review, once again the most recent micro-structure provided us with a clue as to where price might reach. I have updated my plan with:

If a GZ is reasonably confluent with KeyZones based on the wicks of recent SHs or SLs then go with the KeyZones (ie. the wicks) to act as Role-Reversal.

Do NOT insist on ideal GZ PBs for the trade entry.

Time to go watch some Mark Douglas..

 

09:58

1 REVFIB Sell Loser, 1 Buy FIBCON Winner..

I’ve really enjoyed trading this morning, I’ve had 2 losers and 1 winner and learned a lot!

Based on the Daily chart I’ve had a bullish bias this morning but when two potential REVFIBs came along I took them, both lost.

The first was just before 8 am, probably should have left it alone. 

The second one just after 8 am was based on the 50% midine@12429 and the H4 chart. But here’s the thing,

All I saw was the sell REVFIB, I was totally blinded to the quality of the buy setup offering a continuation FIBCON.

It was a proper battle as you can see but eventually, the bulls won and created an impulsive A-B leg breaking above 12429. But here’s the thing.

Once I’d lost the sell REVFIB I saw the buy setup.

Yesterday whilst watching a Mark Douglas seminar he mentioned specifically about how traders filter information, a classic is when we are in so invested in a trade we only see information to support it, completely blinded to a setup the opposite direction.

And then this happened to me earlier, SO, I have made a note of this rather important thing to be aware of. The idea being that next time I might reason something like:

Am I blinded to a setup in the opposite direction?

I will then mark up the opposite setup.

If I have two opposing trades in the same zone then I will pass unless I have a clear reason for bias, like today based on the Daily chart. Another clue was the break above Yes High.

After switching to buy mode I took the first decent PB to a GZ and ended up with a +1.60R winner. I closed out when it looked like it was struggling at the high. 

One thing to point out is the Precise Nano-PB to the 12438 midline after the BO above 12429. I marked up a possible buy and sent out the Trade Setup but the PB to the GZ never came BUT look at the accuracy of the Price Action Grid midlines showing where the PB did come back to.

NFP later so time to go watch the next Mark Douglas webinar.

 

 

 

07:57

REVFIB Sell Loser, -1.00R

I took the sell REVFIB at Yes High. I liked it, decent structure, and context but didn’t work out.

The only thing going against it was the timing, 7 minutes before the London open, however, there was time to see it go in your favour if the trade was going to work out.

 

06:47

GZ on M15 between 12281 – Open

The intraday GZ currently falls precisely between the EQZ@12281 and the Open.

It could be supportive if price moves down into it. We might see a REVFIB??

06:09

Still in the Daily GZ at 12281 – NFP Today

We are still in the Daily GZ just above the 12281 level. The move back down below it yesterday reached the lower GZ, just below the 50% level then the bulls drove price back up.

We are still very much range-bound, maybe today that will change, maybe not?

Note: Today is NFP at 1:30 pm, a day early as tomorrow is a Bank Holiday in the US.

1st July 2020

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End of Day Review

-3.14%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 3 losers, 0 break even.

13:32

Pair of M15 FIBCON losers | -2.22R

To be honest, I still like them! 

The first one had a good role reversal structure on the Yes Low level. Price did take more than 10 minutes to hit my stop loss (that I moved in order to let the M15 MAB come in play), but no level could hold bulls.

The second one was the FIBCON frim top to bottom, and having included both the 12281 level and the H1 moving average I had hopes.

It looks as if bulls just woke up after lunchtime! 

I guess the range we are on only allows trades either at the top or the bottom of it.. Let’s see if something else comes up. 

15:52

Failed M1 FIBCON | -0.92R

Unlucky? Never. I dragged my stop loss when the trade was 1R on my favor, but then thought “I said to myself I wouldn’t touch it unless I lock in profit”, so I put it back. Well, it looks like I set it back slightly slower than the original level, hence why it took me out by 0.92R  instead of 1R. 

Needless to say, it took me out and went down to my 2R target profit level. 

Wed 1st Jul

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

21:32

A Few Sell Losers

I ended up taking a few sell trades following the mid-morning sell-off. The first two were based on reasonable A-B-C GZs but didn’t work out.

The third was possible REVFIB just after the US open, did not work out.

I then got caught up in the choppiness at the 12281 level, had a BE, and another loser, magnified by a gap.

Not a great start to July. A funny day for me due to the DAX feed going down for a few hours which meant we decided to watch some training material by Mark Douglas and ended up missing a cracking sell setup into below the 12281 level.

 

12:37

Bears back in control

Wow! What a morning.

Before 7 am I posted the trade setup anticipating a REVFIB at 12281 with a bullish GZ in play from the H1 chart. That played out but did not offer a clear buy REVFIB just after 7 am, price just went up.

Then the DAX feed went down at about 7:47 till 10:30 am. We decided to continue watching the Mark Douglas “How to think like a Professional Trader” 4 part series.

When the DAX feed came back online the price spiked around a bit then the bears took control and drove price back below the EQZ@12281 level offering two M1 Sell MABs.

What happened is another great example of how important the Daily EQZs are and once the battle is resolved at the level the winner (in this case the bears) will push price down into the EQZ offering multiple R potential.

This is why REVFIBs are to be mastered because the context in which they occur (reversal at key levels) offers multiple R as price goes back up/down the range or zone.

Whilst this screenshot is not of a REVFIB it shows how a “Continuation FIBCON” produced when price moves down into the EQZ offers the opportunity to ride it down.

 

06:46

Overnight REVFIB

Here’s yet another REVFIB that formed when price failed to hold the overnight highs. This is shown on the M5 chart at 5 am, its a cracker!

We must look to specialize in these as they are high probability offering multiple R profit potential. Identifying potential reversal points in the market in advance means we can set alerts to support us in spotting these juicy salmon 🙂

Some days the price action offers great setups, some days not. We must therefore “Be The Bear” and not force anything.

The two screenshots below show this, the one from Monday shows how when price reached the TOR (reversal zones) three great sell micro-REVFIBs occurred.

The one from Tuesday (yesterday) shows that when price reached the TOR (reversal zones) ZERO sell micro-REVFIBs occurred.

We must understand that no two days are the same and accept what the market gives us.

06:12

Going Sideways

There were not a lot of opportunities yesterday, price stayed within a small range as shown by the daily candle.

We are still above the 12281 level, within a GZ where the 61.8 level is confluent with the EQZ 50% midline@12429.

A strong break above 12429 or below 12281 might signal intention by buyers or sellers?

July 2020

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July 2020

SMTWTFS
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5 6 78 9 1011
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 19 20 2122 23 2425
 26 27 28 293031 1

End of Week Review 20-24

+4.10%

5 trades taken.

3 winners, 2 losers, 0 break even.

% Winners: 60.0%

WNTA Losers: 0

92.38% -> 96.47%

End of Week Review 13-17

+0.82%

5 trades taken.

2 winners, 2 losers, 1 break even.

% Winners: 40.0%

WNTA Losers: 0

91.56% -> 92.38%

End of Week Review 6-10

+2.80%

11 trades taken.

4 winners, 5 losers, 2 break even.

% Winners: 36.36%

WNTA Losers: 2

88.76% -> 91.56%

End of Week Review 29-3

+2.22%

3 trades taken.

2 winners, 1 losers, 0 break even.

% Winners: 50.0%

WNTA Losers: 1

86.55% -> 88.76%

End of Week Review

+-0%

0 trades taken.

0 winners, 0 losers, 0 break even.

% Winners: 0%

WNTA Losers: 0

0% -> 0%