Tue 30th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:38

No Fish Sighted?

Price reversed back down without offering a REVFIB, nothing even close. If price had reached Yes High maybe that would have produced a sell setup but unless you sold at the 12318 level it was tough to get on the move back down.

I was waiting for a PB to 12281 for an M1+M5 sell once price moved back below it but nothing at all. Just one of those range days where no fish are biting. However, another example where price is stepping up and down through the midlines with obvious precision.

For me, the best setup was the buy REVFIB off the Low as noted in my earlier post.

11:42

REVFIB off the Low

I did not see this in real-time BUT should have!

I’d identified the reversal zone (BOR) if price was going to move back up as shown on the H1 screenshot from my earlier post. Hidden away was a decent buy REVFIB that included an M1 Bull channel at the 12207 level.

The REVFIB is appearing often at key reversal areas, they vary but they all have the same core A-B-C symmetry. They represent a shift in the energy from bullish or bearish.

When I have days like yesterday the case for trading only REVFIBs once you’ve identified the range or possible reversal zone makes so much sense??

 

 

11:21

Price Range-Bound (12189-12350)

After my earlier sell loser, I was reminded of the context of range-bound price action. I sold into support as you can see from the H1 chart above.

Note the FIB tool in blue and how price came down into its GZ before moving back up.

This time I passed on the M5 sell MAB due to the context, it proved a good call. 

 

09:15

Sell Loser, Poor Trade Context

I’m NOT following the rules for Ranges very well this week. Had I done so I’d have not entered the sell trades yesterday morning?

And today I took an aggressive sell after a new low was briefly made thinking the 12202 level was a target BUT the H1 chart shows how supportive the level is and any sell trades close to it should be avoided.

Price is in a tight micro-range right now, a clear break below 12207 might offer a sell setup?

06:15

Bulls in Control Yesterday

After testing the 11985 level yesterday morning around 7 am the bulls took control and pushed up through the EQZ to the 12281 level.

The 12577 level could be a target if the bulls remain in control, but first, they would have to get through the midline@12429 which is confluent with a 61.8 level which was acting in a TOR role last week, see the screenshot.

A clear break back below 12281 would mean the bears are back in control.

Mon 29th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

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10:54

Feeling Philly-Sophical…

I’ve taken a break after the losers.

I should have taken the REVFIB and/or the following M1 MAB sell. I was waiting for the perfect PB to 12133 but it reversed back down just below it.

I then misread the PA after the move down to the Open, it was strong supportive energy in play and I was trading into it by selling. All crystal clear afterward.

Lot’s to learn, “Do NOT trade on your birthday :)”

10:12

Two More Sell Losers

Should have stopped after the two losers!

Got caught in in sell mode and the last one was emotional, I felt the FOMO and still took it, I’m done for the day.

 

09:40

Two Sell Losers

I’m SO not in the zone today so maybe I’ll go enjoy my birthday??

I took two sell trades after the PB off the Open. They had decent structure but I guess the Open was as far as the bulls would allow it to go.

Missing the Sell REVFIB off the High was a clue to maybe I’m not in the zone today?

07:43

GZ on H1 Chart

I’ve marked up a GZ on the H1 chart as shown. The 61.8 level@12202 is confluent with the midline@12207 and has decent RR when you look left.

It might offer a sell setup but if price is intent on moving up to 12281 then maybe not??

06:52

REVFIB That Failed

This REVFIB had good structure and context but failed. It’s pre 7 am so the spread is 5 pips and not one we’d trade.

It would have failed, however, note how precise the micro DB is when price moved down to the EQZ@11985

11985 is key just now…

06:11

Back in Daily GZ

Price is currently in the GZ from last week when it tested the 61.8 level@11985 and moved up strongly.

It has just (5:55 am)  formed a micro-DB on the M1 precisely on the 11985 level and bounced up off it to Yes Low.

 

Fri 26th June

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End of Day Review

-3.00%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 3 losers, 0 break even.

08:44

“Fine Margins” Failed M1 FIBCON | -1.00R

Unlucky on this one, great setup, would definitely trade it again. 

I must confess I adjusted my stop loss before entering the trade, it was a couple of pips higher, that would have given me potentially a winner. 

Only 20 minutes after that trade, price keeps doing new lows, now it would be at the bottom of my screenshot. After taking me out, price never came back to that level…Fine margins, happy to have taken that trade!

Fri 26th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

12:02

Recommended Reading

I forgot to mention, I posted the following link yesterday in response to a comment by Rab. If you’ve not read it then please do so, it’s a great article by one of three price action teachers I’ve had, Chris Capre.

 

https://2ndskiesforex.com/trading-strategies/forex-strategies/impulsive-and-corrective/

11:49

Done Trading for the day.

We’re going to enjoy a few hours in the garden planning our weekend of work on the website etc. We’re also a wee bit tired from two long evening rides in the heat so I’m done trading for the week.

It’s been a milestone week for a number of reasons, two notable ones are:

  • Trading using the updated Price Action Grid. The concept is nothing new, we’ve just advanced things to the next level. I’m really enjoying the additional precision of the Grid, more on this over the weekend.
  • Sharing Potential Trade Setups. I’ve planned this for a while, it was always about timing, both personally and the evolution of the trading environment. 

I will go over the setups in a video, this will serve as a video diary of our journey…

11:36

Missed Great Buy Setup 🙁

This good weather is affecting my performance!!

We’ve just been enjoying a coffee in the garden for the last hour and I’ve come in to see this great buy setup when price was able to break back above the 12281 level.

It highlights how the juicy salmon will eventually swim by, we just don’t know when.

09:49

M5 Sell MAB Loser, -1.39R

I liked this setup, the midline@12244 was great RR, look at in the M15 & M30 charts.

I did move my to protect it with an M1 Bear Channel, didn’t work out.

Note: I do allow myself some leeway with my stop ONLY if I can protect it with a small adjustment and still limiting my risk to acceptable levels.

See below the channel I used, look left to see how it functioned as RR.

09:16

M5 Sell MAB Winner, +2.01R

After price failed to hold above 12281 and offer an H1 Buy MAB plus a REVFIB I sent out a Trade Setup highlighting a PB to 12281 might offer a sell setup – It Did 🙂

I initially was waiting for the perfect entry at 12290 but took it at the level with my stop covering the GZ and M5 MAB, it worked out 🙂

I was tempted to go for more profit but passed, it therefore of course went storming down to the next support levels.

I really liked this setup, after using the horizontal Grid structure to identify the setup I overlaid the M1 Bear Channels to look for additional confluence, there was in the form of a midline at the M5 MAB, see below.

Look left at the midline and how it had recently been functioning as micro-RR.

06:49

Back above 12281

After 8 am yesterday price moved down to test the EQZ@11985 before reversing back up strongly off the GZ 61.8 level due to its supportive energy.

We are back in a range from last week, let’s see what happens today?

Thu 25th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

21:00

Superb Sell REVFIB at 12281

I returned from our evening ride to see yet another Grade A REVFIB that took place at about 18:30, it had the following characteristics:

  • A precise bounce off the EQZ@12281 (point A)
  • A low probability M1 MAB
  • An M5 Buy MAB (point B)
  • This produced a great GZ with great RR

Just look at the chart and see how the Grid levels guide price, this is truly the “Holy Grid” illuminating the pathway as we “Be The Bear” waiting patiently for Juicy Salmon to swim buy.

The screenshot below shows what happened afterward, when price broke back above 12281, a tasty buy setup formed. Point A could be taken 12281 or just below.

Also note the M5 Buy MAB (red line) when price came back down to test the GZ after setting new High.

15:41

Minor s/w Update

The update will now make use of the additional characters you can add to a screenshot as shown.

This will avoid having to send any additional info via the Comment Share feature.

BTW, note how the bulls managed to push above our KeyZone from earlier, the PB was a buy but it was not perfect M1 Buy MAB as the GZ was below.

However, based on how key the zone was you might have fancied taking the buy at the PB to 12170.

Below is the H1 chart showing the 12207 level – TOR – that the bulls were targeting, another example of how technical the DAX is on a range day.

14:38

Great example of RR KeyZone

I decided to make a minor update to the s/w for use with the Trade Setup feature after my lunch break so I was not looking at the charts.

I heard Elaine’s phone alarm only to find out she’d set a Sell Limit order if price came back up to the 12170 level. She was away from her desk at the time, hence the Sell Limit.

When I looked at my charts I saw what she’d done and ended up with a 2R winner in a few minutes.

She marked up the FIB tool as shown, the GZ was just below the KeyZone from earlier that I’d marked up based on the SH at 7 am.

This is a superb example of:

  • How a KeyZone based on a SH, SL or GZ from early in the session comes into play later on.
  • Using a Sell Limit to catch a salmon when you’re away from your desk.

Price has remained in a micro-range since the US came online.

I will release updates for both the BTC and MT4 modules very soon.

 

11:16

One M5 Sell MAB Loser, One M5 Sell MAB Winner!

Wow, what a fun 30 minutes 🙂

I sent out the Trade Setup for a possible M5 Buy MAB on a PB to the RR zone from earlier.  I took it, 32 seconds later it was toast.

I then marked up the A-B bear leg to see that the GZ was confluent with the RR zone if the bulls could push price back up. This meant a possible sell setup would form so I took a screenshot and sent that out.

The bulls had a fair bit of work to do at that point, in particular moving back above the Open which was tempting to sell at due to the wicks showing it was a battle zone.

However, I reasoned that the best value was the GZ and that the market is very technical at the moment so “Be The Bear” and Watch, Wait, Anticipate!

It paid off, I entered the sell once price poked into the zone. I’m back to being -0.28R on the day but pleased that I’m following my process as I’m still getting used to using the updated PAG (Price Action Grid).

We must keep following our plan, rules, and process and let the traders equation take care of things.

Also, yesterday evening we went for a ride and I listened to a great interview with the legendary Mark Douglas (Trading in the Zone), it was perfect timing for me.

Why?

My challenge right now is my mindset and learning to think like a professional. We ABSOLUTELY have a great edge – BUT – that does not guarantee success. 

We have to develop the mindset of a Pro and FULLY define and accept the risk then let things play out.

We must also understand at a deep deep subconscious level that each trade is statistically independent of all those before it and all those after it but so long as we have a genuine edge – which we do – we will be profitable.

Yesterday I passed on two winning setups due to a mindset issue, today I applied what I listened to and worked hard at removing emotions and took the trades where my edge was in play. 

Note: My first trade was not our edge in play, it was an aggressive punt on the momentum, I managed it accordingly for a BE.

This a highly recommended watch, link below.

 

10:18

12207 Level on H1 Chart

The H1 chart shows how key the 12207 level is. My buy trade had its target just above it, that trade would have come in had my stop been a pip or two lower.

Another great example of the precision of the updated Price Action Grid to guide us in our trading 🙂

09:48

Buy Loser, -1.39R

I’ve taken two trades, a BE and buy loser.

The BE was an aggressive sell at 11985 based on the speed of the move down to it. I’ve seen price storm on down but due to the 61.8 level on the Daily – see earlier post –  I was very wary and closed out as soon as it struggled to go lower, that was a good call.

I then marked up the possible REVFIB with my GZ as shown, however, Yes Low was in play. I liked the idea of a PB to 12000 but it never happened. 

If you take point A from 11985 instead of the Low then the GZ was confluent with where price PB to and Yes Low.

I was in buy mode but could not see a safe entry due to the strength of the move up. When the first decent PB came to an earlier SH just after 7am the RR and M1 Buy MAB meant I entered a buy trade.

It struggled so I decided to protect my stop with the Open, talk about FINE MARGINS!!

As soon as I got stopped out price moved back on up – that’s trading!

In summary, the ENERGY of the Daily FIB, and GZ I mentioned earlier sent price back up very strongly, it was a challenge to find an entry without chasing price and breaking rules.

06:50

Bears In Control Yesterday

A big down day yesterday leaves us currently in the middle of the EQZ@12133.  I stopped trading after a winning sell trade yesterday afternoon but came back 2 hours later to see that the bears took full control after the break below 12281 offering a few decent sell setups, wished I kept trading 🙁

We do have a GZ (magenta Fib Tool) as shown that may come into play if price moves down to the bottom of the EQZ@11985?

Wed 24th June

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End of Day Review

+-0.00%

No trades taken today.

0 winners, 0 losers, 0 break even.

08:35

Best sell trade of your life!

Price action has been challenging today. I waited for many setups to form but couldn’t find any value yet.

The screenshot below would have been a great sell, but a very hard one to take to be honest.

I doubt I will take a trade today as I need to leave early, it’s a weird but necessary sensation to experience, as it is far better not to trade than trade a poor setup.

Still waiting for a potential REVFIB to be seen better on the M15 chart, let’s see if we have a salmon there.  

00:00

Wed 24th Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

15:37

At Last!! An M1 Sell MAB Winner, +2.01R

After a day of just missing or passing on what turned out to be winners, I finally pulled the trigger on an M1 Sell MAB after the bears regained control just after the US came online.

I almost took the first M1 MAB but wanted a PB to 12263, TOO Fussy!

However, I marked up the fast-moving micro-M1 MAB that followed and took it. It did come back up briefly but it worked out, the M1 Bear Channels played their part – see below.

I’m done for the day, need some sunshine and a break. One winner is fine but I should have bagged at least another, the salmon were in the river and I called the excellent sell zone at 12318  🙂

Note: Fast-moving setups like this are difficult to markup, screenshot and upload without affecting focus. I’ll do my best as I get used to sharing setups!

14:12

Sell Setup at the Open??

I’ve just uploaded the above sell setup if price can move up to the 12429 level. It’s the 50% EQZ midline and is confluent with the Open.

If point A is taken from the 12577 level the GZ falls nicely.

The 12355 level is also a key level and is in the way, it might also offer a sell?

However, when you look left the 12429 level was functioning as the TOR last week, let’s see what the afternoon session brings?

 

14:04

Called the level at 12318, missed the trade 🙁

After identifying the DT@12318 I missed the sell trade for the following two reasons:

  1. On the first move up I was waiting for price to test the 12318 level and poke above a wee bit. Did not happen!!
  2. On the second test, I over-analyzed things and thought the 12355 level was the next target. 

If the first move up had gone into the zone between 12318-12327 I was ready with the Trade Tool. However, I then began to doubt if the level/zone would hold if price went back up!!

Oh, the mindset!!

However, Well Done Elaine!!

She took the first move up and sold at the 12318 level and closed out for a decent winner.

10:59

Bulls In Control, Wrong – Bears In Control

Just after 8 am the bears took control, no trades yet though the M5 MAB Sell on a PB to 12281 is interesting?

The screenshot shows why a micro-sell setup took place, the earlier SL was confluent with M1 MAB and it produced a DB.

I talked myself out of it thinking the better value was the M5 MAB on a PB to 12281, SHOULD have taken it, lovely microstructure if you take point A from 12281

06:46

Bulls In Control

Yesterday the bulls broke above the 12429 midline and price currently remains above it in the upper 50% of the EQZ. The break above 12577 failed so we wait to see what next?

Tue 23rd June

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End of Day Review

+0.02%

3 trades taken.

0 winners, 0 losers, 3 break even.

08:43

Breakeven sell at the top – +0.02R

Above the PW High there was a level of good role reversal, which was the 12500 level, confluent also with the price grid.

My sell trade was above +1R but found support and came back up. For these trades, I promised myself to always keep a tight stop loss. What I need to improve is to take profit out of these moves.

11:30

Failed sell at the top | -0.27R

Yet again! Didn’t take profits when I was around +1.5R, and a  tight made the trade to be closed right on a reversal point. Now price is below the channel boundary at 12577.51, surpassing my 2R level. 

12:01

Bad sell trade below support level | +0.27R

I do think that price could go lower from that point, but we never know how will that happen. Frustrated watching price breaking the level that was acting as support, I sold on the way down. 

I closed it mannually as it is not the kind of trades I should get involved. 

Tue 23rd Jun

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Welcome to the daily DAX commentary where we share with members our unique take on Price Action as the session unfolds. We comment on trade setups that conform to our Trading Edge and how we use the hybrid Blackbox Trade Controller for MT4.

Use the comments section below to post questions and read what others are saying.

Remember to:

13:44

Two M5 Buy MABs

I’ve not taken any trades so far today but buys trades were the best value and there were two M5 buy MABs on offer.

The first one, just above the Pw high was the best. As I mentioned earlier, I’m still tuning back into things and like to think that had I put the BOR KZ on using the swing-high wick(s) above the PW High I’d have taken it.

10:53

Highlighting the Micro-Range

I’m tuning back into marking up the charts using the updated Grid. I’m feeling a little rusty after the s/w binge but the juices are starting to flow.

One very useful thing to do is to watch for the Swing Highs/Lows and use the wicks to mark up a KeyZone. Had I done this at the PW High and projected the KZ between the midlines (12485-12494) forward I might have entered a buy trade when the M5 MAB took place.

It ticks the boxes of:

  • Buying at the BOR for the best value.
  • Having a bias to buy trades when the bulls are in control.

The 2R would have been below the TOR, ideal!

As I keep saying, retrospective analysis is SO easy but it’s also vital as it wires the neural networks and develops the pattern recognition skill.

It’s my intention to develop and future this type of intraday commentary now the s/w updates are over. I find it helpful and I hope or members do also.

So far today two juicy salmon have swum by:

  • The buy on the pullback to the PW High.
  • The M5 Buy MAB at the BOR, just above the PW High.

10:32

Price in Micro-Range at the Highs

I passed on the second buy setup, a good entry would have worked out due to the Double-Top.

We are now in a micro-range after the bull move up, the M5 MAB is currently moving price back up a wee bit.

I’d like to see a clear move below the PW High for sells, if the EQZ@12577 is reached we’ll watch for a REVFIB or continuation setup.

08:59

Missed The Micro-FIBCON Buy Setup@PW High 🙁

I missed this decent Buy Micro-FIBCON on the pullback to the PW High.

The A-B impulsive leg was good quality along with the context.

06:06

Price in Range

The DAX remains in a range as shown on the H1 chart. Note the wick on the 2 am candle, price tested the BOR, and came up strongly off it.

For now price is contained between 12429 and 12133.

Note that these levels are the 50% midlines of the Daily EQZ’s